The Nangotiator

I’ve done a lot of negotiating in my time. From sentencing agreements to mediating all manner of civil cases to negotiating contracts for companies, some of whom you’ve heard of, I’ve done it all. I’ve had easy negotiations, hard negotiations, and impossible negotiations. I’ve been reasonable and unreasonable, and I’ve dealt with reasonable and unreasonable. I’ve even walked out of negotiations. And in all that time, certain universal truths about reaching deals have revealed themselves. Nancy Pelosi violates those truths seemingly on a daily basis. Nothing has shown this more than three things she’s done this week.

Caught Bluffing

One of the first rules you learn about negotiation is that a little bit of puffery is to be expected, but lying is a deal killer. What is the difference? Puffery is a suggestion that you might be holding a stronger hand than it may appear. It is intended to feel out the other side without tipping your hand. People know this and they don’t get offended by it. An example of puffery might be: “I’m confident we’ll have the votes.”

Lies are a different story entirely. Lies are assertions that are not true, like: “We have the votes right now.”

So why is the lie bad? Because negotiations are about reaching a comfort zone where neither side feels like they had to give up more than other side to reach the deal. When one side is lying, it becomes impossible to evaluate this with any certainty. Consequently, the other side will either walk away or start presenting take it or leave it deals at the far end of their own comfort zone. In other words, if I can’t trust what you are saying, then I will work out the deal I want and I’ll present it to you as a take it or leave it deal, because I will no longer concern myself with trying to address your concerns.

Pelosi lied last week when she claimed she had all the votes she needed to pass health care. It was obviously a lie and it was intended for two reasons. First, she wanted to scare the NO voters into thinking that the battle was over and that they were about to be on the losing side. Secondly, she wanted to scare wavering YES voters, by making them fear that switching to NO might make them responsible for killing the entire bill.

This might have worked, except that the lie was so obvious and by Sunday morning, she had been exposed. Now she looks weak and desperate and untrustworthy. There is no reason for a NO to reconsider and the wavering YES votes should get even more skittish as they move to the most comforting end of their comfort zone.

The Bad Bluff: Take It Or Leave

The next worst thing you can do in a negotiation is the bad bluff. When you tell the other side that you can’t go any lower/higher, you better be telling the truth. If they reject your offer and you come back with a lower offer, then the other side knows they have you, and they’re going to drive the price all the way to what they think is probably your truly lowest offer. Why? Because this will confirm to them that you don’t have a serious idea of what your side is worth, and they will treat all of your subsequent entreaties to the contrary as just negotiation ploys, at least until they come to the point that they think is your true minimum.

Pelosi spent Monday telling everyone that she was done dealing. There will be no more bribes, it is time for a vote, she claims. She’s bluffing, and this is a huge mistake. Since she doesn’t have the votes, she will need to go get some, and that means more bribes. But as soon as she bribes one more Congressional, and thereby proves that she is bluffing, all the others will demand their own deals. Moreover, since everyone already knows that she is lying, there is no reason not to hold out at the moment. Indeed, this even gives YES votes an incentive to shift to the NO camp just in the hopes of getting some goodies sent their way. Essentially, she’s put herself into a situation where she now needs everyone, which will cause the very people she needs to increase their demands.

Demonstrating A Lack of Good Faith

Finally, when you raise a concern in a negotiation and the other side responds with a fake solution, it doesn’t take long before you lose confidence that the other side is dealing in good faith. The natural response in that situation is to stop negotiating in good faith yourself. Basically, you stop working your way toward the middle ground and you stand pat with your last offer.

This is exactly what Bart Stupak has done. In an interview this weekend, Stupak stated flatly that he now believes that Pelosi never had any intention of addressing his concerns. Therefore, he considers the negotiations over and he won’t support the bill -- and keep in mind, he was a YES originally.

So what does Pelosi do now? She repeats this mistake with the entire NO camp by offering the Slaughter Rule. Many Democrats are concerned that voting for the health care bill will become a political death sentence. They’re right. (See the very correct cartoon on the right.) So Pelosi proposed a solution, the Slaughter Rule. The Slaughter Rule, for those who haven’t heard, would allow the Democrats to vote on a rule that would deem the health care bill passed rather than voting on the bill directly. Since no one would need to vote on the bill itself, Pelosi argues that this should resolve her members’ concerns. But anyone who thinks that voters won’t be able to see that voting for the rule and voting for the bill are the same thing is a fool. Thus, Pelosi has presented a bad faith solution in response to the legitimate concerns raised by the NO camp. Their response should be to stiffen their spines, just as Stupak has done.

Way to go Nancy.