Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Good Luck With That!

There are times I shake my head at the Republican Party’s inability to get its act together. But then the Democrats come along and prove that incompetence is a trait both parties share in abundance. What got my attention this weekend was that the Democrats finally put their “strategy” for 2014 on full display, and it’s a laugher. I can't imagine any of it working.

Rather than coming up with a platform that could win over a broad swath of the public, the Democratic plan involves agitating their supporters in the hopes of raising voter turn out among the faithful. That's a legitimate strategy for a low-turnout election like an off-year election. But the Democrats' supporters are demoralized by broken promises and six years of Democratic failure, so they need something rather dramatic to energize them, and this strategy just offers more of the same. Observe:

Attacking the Koch Brothers: The first part of the Democratic strategy involves attacking the Koch Brothers as invading Huns determined to force something unexplained upon the good people of America. Washington Democrats have been attacking the Kochs for a couple years now and ads have been running for months in places like Colorado. These ads accuse the Koch Brothers of trying to steal democracy but never really say how. Unfortunately for the Democrats, outside of pure wonks, no one knows who the Koch Brothers are. So this won't motivate anyone to turn out who wasn't already coming. What's more, Koch Industries has been fighting back by running some nice ads explaining what they’ve done for the state in terms of jobs and progress. This makes the attacks on the Koch brothers sound like paranoia. Further, the one billionaire whose name does seem to be sitting poorly on the public's lips is Michael Bloomberg, who has openly spent tens of millions to push things the public doesn't like, i.e. gun control. All told, this strategy is a failure.

War on Women Redux: As with every other recent election, the Democrats are pushing the idea that the Republicans are trying to turn women into sex slaves by banning abortion and contraception. Essentially, they are running ads accusing every Republican of being far-right religious right, with Debbie Wasserman-Schulz leading the charge on this. Sadly for them, the GOP doesn’t seem to have any Todd Akins this time who will lend credence to this idea. To the contrary, most of the candidates were smeared as mushy moderates in the primaries. In fact, the Colorado candidate is even taking the position that birth control pills should be available without a prescription to reduce the chance of unwanted pregnancy. I doubt the Democratic push will motivate many women, even liberal women.

Race Anger: The Democrats are hoping to push whatever outrage exists about the events in Ferguson to turn out black voters. This is the same strategy they tried with Trayvon Martin in Florida in 2012. Unfortunately for them, Obama’s black vote actually fell in 2012 because the Martin thing didn’t resonate, and Ferguson hasn’t resonated either nor will it be remembered by election time. Moreover, Team Obama and the rest have put more effort into whining about the Washington Redskins name than they have in turning Ferguson into an election issue. I doubt this will motivate blacks to turn out in November.

Immigration: The Democrats accuse the Republicans of standing in the way of immigration reform and of racism. The problem here is that they have done nothing themselves to push immigration reform. And having Obama say he was going to do something by executive order, and then letting it be known that he would wait another year (after waiting several years already) sure sounds like a politician playing politics rather than carrying out his promises. With the Republicans shutting up about this issue, there is no open racism to agitate Hispanics to turn out either. All in all, I would be surprised if this turned out any Hispanic voters.

Poor Michael Sam: There doesn’t seem to be a gay strategy this cycle except to talk about Michael Sam. Even the gay marriage stuff seems to have stopped being discussed publicly as the courts have taken over and the advocates have run out of easy states.

Minimum Wage: The Democrats are still pushing the minimum wage issue, even though it has yet to gain any traction anywhere outside of Seattle. Nader and Biden are pushing this one. The problem here, of course, is that only a million or so people would be helped by a raise in the minimum wage (assuming they keep their jobs), whereas tens of millions of working poor will be hurt when prices at places like McDonalds and WalMart go up.

Interestingly, Obama and Biden are both pushing this using the phrase "take back the country." The problem with this is that (1) they have been in charge for six years, and incumbents can't really complain about the country having lost its way, (2) this is a decent populist phrase, except that there is zero substance behind it except the minimum wage stuff, which hardly defines the state of upset-ed-ness with the state of America, and (3) this sounds like a political slogan without anything else behind it.

The “Do Nothing” Congress: Finally, the Democrats (Obama himself actually) continue to push the idea that the GOP has run a “do nothing” Congress. The problem here is that (1) the Senate has done even less and that is run by Democrats, (2) there was no shutdown or implosion that can be pointed to as being caused by the Republicans, and (3) the Democrats haven’t enunciated a platform that was stopped by the Republicans. So the do nothing charge rings hollow. And given that Democratic supporters had a long list of demands and expected those to be pushed hard, which the Democrats did not do, it will be hard to motivate their supporters with this claim.

All in all, this election strategy sounds played out to me. They tried all of this before, but none of it had any traction in 2010 or 2012, so I don't see why it would work in 2014... especially with the Republicans being less stupidly confrontational. And ultimately, I just don't see anything exciting or outrageous enough to bring out their base here.

Thoughts?

17 comments:

AndrewPrice said...

Ignore the typo in the image... it's only in your imagination... this is not the typo you are looking for...

BevfromNYC said...

What typo? Reality has always been really bad at spelling and punctuation.

I think conservatives may have learned a valuable lesson from the 2012 election cycle. We can't win if our candidates aren't savvy or seasoned enough to avoid the Todd Akins moments.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I think the GOP has gotten smarter since the last couple elections and they seem determined not to nominate the kinds of candidates who disgrace the rest of us... for a change. So far, it seems to be working really well.

tryanmax said...

Of all the things you've listed, I think the War of Women is the most frayed. Feminism has had a bad summer. I could write a couple pages on it.

Anonymous said...

This is reassuring news to see. Earlier this year I was sure the Republicans were going to blow it again, especially when poll numbers down here in GA started favoring Democrats for offices like Senate, but it seems like the GOP just might pull it off.

Also, tryanmax, I'm curious as to your observations on feminism. Throughout the summer I kept hearing a lot of heavily emotional, if not flat-out fringey, feminist rhetoric from some people I know. From reading here I was sure none of it would play with the public, but it did make for some annoyance when I was trying to check in on my less-political friends.

- Daniel

Anthony said...

Both sides have their billionaires and each side hates the other's billionaires. I don't think anyone on the fence cares.

The Republicans haven't given the War on Women any red meat yet, but give it time. Hillary is the heir apparent to the Democratic nomination. Someone high profile will invariably let his ***hole overload his brain.

I disagree with your take race. Republicans' determination to cut down on the hours/days people could vote and to demand IDs was what used to encourage blacks to vote. Judging by the stats I've seen and the talk in the line I stood in, the attempt was successful (particularly among older blacks).

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/05/09/blacks-outvoted-whites-in-2012-the-first-time-on-record/

The voting battle is still being fought, but its not being talked about much. I'm not sure what the media will use to try to spur the black vote. They are probably hoping a high profile Republican says something hideously stupid. I think they are going to be disappointed.

I completely agree about immigration. Obama can't do anything (or even nothing) without pissing off an important part of the Democratic coalition. Its a lose-lose situation for him (the influx of Central American kids changed the dynamics of the debate, at least this election cycle).

I'm not seeing a gay strategy. That war seems to be fought in courts rather than ballot boxes nowadays. If it goes back to ballot boxes, it will be a big issue.

I agree completely about the minimum wage and the 'do nothing' Congress. Its kind of hilarious for a president who openly admits he has 'no strategy' to deal with major challenges to complain that the Republicans are holding him back from doing, uh, well, nothing.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Feminism is in real trouble. They are in the middle of an uncivil war and half their team has descended into a bizarre world where they seem to be hoping that more women get raped. In the meantime, regular (non-ideological) women seem to have completely turned their back on feminists and even Hollywood is embracing new values.

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, As soon as the GOP started fighting back, the fringe seems to have lost their ability to do anything except whine about how unfairly they've been treated. With the non-fringe dominating the primaries almost 100%, there just aren't a lot of fringe candidates out there who can credibly be linked to the GOP itself. Instead, they seem to be seen as fringers for once. It's very refreshing.

On feminism, this summer saw some very fringy feminism, especially in opposition to things like tests that can detect the "date rape" drug. Apparently, they really do want women to be victims. Anyway, while doctrinaire feminists are fighting about their fringyness, the rest of the culture has clearly moved on.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, By and large, I don't think anyone cares about the billionaires. The only reason Bloomberg resonates in Colorado right now is because he backed EXTREMELY unpopular gun legislation which the Democrats passed - couple Democrats have already been recalled. So his name has become a minor rallying cry for gun owners in this state.

Agreed about the Republicans. Some of them just can't help themselves and as we near the election a couple of them will no doubt surface to start saying truly obnoxious things to prove just how stupid they can be.

You might be right about the race issue, but this last weekend, everything I saw by the Democrats was aimed at pushing Ferguson as the way to get blacks to turnout.

Immigration seems to be best managed by both sides by doing nothing. So I do think Obama can't do anything. The problem is that the more he promises to do something later, the more it will upset the people who are opposed to him doing anything ever.

Yeah, I don't see a gay strategy of any sort.

And the "economic" agenda /"do nothing" charge are jokes.

Kit said...

Feminism is currently operating under this M.O.: If someone says women should not over-drink (a.k.a., get sloppy drunk) or not drink from an open cup a scourge of feminists will hound that person for "blaming the victim", in other words, you are implying that women who were raped "deserved it" because they did not take those precautions.

Instead they say we should be teaching men not to rape women with phrases like, "We tell women not to drink from an open cup but we don't tell men to not slip things into women's drinks". Which is a bit like saying "We tell people to lock their doors but we don't tell people not to break into homes."

Well, no shit, there are evil people.

Unfortunately, I fear these bullying tactics are working. Anytime someone in the media has suggested these two things they are HOUNDED for it until they recant. Its a war on common sense.

Anonymous said...

Andrew, you are right about it being a nice change. I was getting tired of all the stupidity going on when the fringe was at its worst. Something could still go wrong, of course, but I'm cautiously optimistic about this year's elections.

I haven't heard anything about the drug detection until some of the recent comments on here, but if there's actual opposition to giving women a way to detect danger and protect themselves accordingly then that's just mind-numbingly insane. What I've observed during that time and in a more recent time frame is more along the lines of what Kit described, though, especially in light of the celebrity hacking mess on Sunday. Based on what I've read here I don't see it catching on with the public, but a lot of this fringey crap just makes my brain cramp up, no matter who's doing it.

- Daniel

tryanmax said...

Kit, I think feminist bullying will only continue to work in the short term. Their argument that you cite, it's really their last one, and it's a horrible one. Right now it's fun and pithy to say and John Oliver is cute as a button repeating it, but it's just a matter of time before it gets skewered in a sound bite and the fems are left with nothing.

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, tryanmax has written an article about feminism for next week and I don't want to step on that, but the issue was that someone came up with a nail polish that changed colors when exposed to the date rape drug. Thus, women could dip a nail into their drinks and see if they were in danger. The feminists were outraged about this because they felt that "men shouldn't rape women, women shouldn't be forced to protect themselves." That sounds super-idiotic on its face, but it's evidence of the deeper desire not to have the fake "date rape" industry exposed. Basically, once it becomes clear that almost no one is running into the date rape drug, the whole house of cards will collapse.

I was getting really sick of the fringe too. It was like some contest to see who could do the most damage to conservatism.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, et al, I'll save this for Monday, but in terms of "working" you need to distinguish the women who are already prone to the industry and the rest of the female world. Otherwise, you're saying that they have been effective because the choir echoes the minister.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, that is completely insane, and sick when you think about it. You'd think people interested in women's welfare would want a way for them to protect themselves rather than complain about how the act shouldn't even happen in the first place. No, it shouldn't, but as Kit said there are evil people out there and pretending otherwise isn't going to help anyone. Doing all of this just to stay relevant is pretty vile, too. In any case, I'm looking forward to the articles next week!

- Daniel

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, It is insane. Anyone viewing the world in good faith would say this is a good thing. Only someone with twisted motives would be opposed to women being able to protect themselves.

... but then keep in mind, these are the same people (leftists) who don't want us having a missile shield because we would become too dangerous if we couldn't be destroyed anymore. Think about that.

The Occasional Contributor said...

A couple points to consider:

- Don't forget about lawfare. The Dems will try anything short of blatantly illegal to take out Reps. Case in point: Rick Perry. Legal or not, they have effectively neutered him at this point for the 2016 race

- Voting Rights: There is still no way to effectively prevent voter fraud. 100% precincts for Obama; keeping polls open as late as possible; "finding" hidden ballots after the tally; electronic abuse (Reid in NV with the unions running the voting machines). As has been going on for years, they will abuse this again until we find a way to validate legality.

Immigrant Vote (See above): How will we stop millions of illegal immigrants from voting? With no effective way of stopping those who legally cannot vote, how do we prevent the Dem controlled precincts from abusing this?

- Foreign policy: Bush's fault (All of it) still sells to the left. How do we combat it? http://video.foxnews.com/v/3768333397001/president-george-w-bushs-chilling-warning-on-iraq-in-2007/#sp=show-clips

- Press propoganda: (See above) When was the last time you heard of Benghazi? When Obama states, as he did just recently, "When people harm Americans, anywhere, we do what’s necessary to see that justice is done." (http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/08/20/statement-president), why has no one in the press asked him what his admin has done to the "folks" (as he likes to call them) that "harmed" (killed actually) the 4 Americans in Benghazi? With this type of cover, Dems across the US will still enjoy the benefits of their asininity never been asked about.

Tea Party Reps: I believe the TP'ers are getting more involved in local politics at the state level and are starting to make an impact from within the Rep establishment. Their kooky fringe days might well be behind them at this point. They will become another faction inside the party, just as the extreme leftists are inside the Dems, and who knows, maybe one day one of them will win the Presidency (see Obama, 2008) by hiding their real views and speaking b.s. to get elected.

Anyway, there its is.........

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