Here are my thoughts on Iowa and what this means. Interestingly, it seems likely to have cleared up the GOP race while hopelessly muddling the Democratic Race.
● Trump: The Biggest Loser. Trump’s campaign has been about smoke and mirrors. He’s projected the idea that some silent, angry majority existed out there waiting for a champion, and that this army of people would carry him to the White House. Even the polls helped support that idea with Trump showing as much as 43% support. But Trump’s distant second place showing (in a very Trumpy state) shatters the myth. It shows that his army of supporters either doesn’t exist or is too lazy to turn out, and they aren’t taking him anywhere. At this point, look for Trump to collapse rather quickly as the “Palin fringe” abandons him to find a “reel ‘merikan” who can destroy the RINO menace – most likely Cruz.
● Cruz: Winner. Cruz won because he beat Trump. But I hesitate to call Cruz a winner because Cruz is only a winner to the extent that he has won the crown of being the “anybody but ___” candidate of the fringe. That means he will win the southern states, but that’s about it. Even then, he still will need to fend of Trump for a few more rounds before Trump completely collapses.
● Carson: Loser. Carson’s fall from grace is complete. The fringe fell for him when they saw him as an Obama-attacking black man. But novelty acts rarely have staying power and with his background proving shaky, he mouth prone to gaffes, and his campaign being underfunded and disorganized, he’s finished, even as a VP contender.
● Paul: Loser. Paul has become forgettable. With the establishment and the fringe picking their champions, there’s just no room left for him.
● Bush: Loser. Bush’s campaign died in the summer, but he must have missed the memo. The election nailed the memo to his forehead. He will now be cut off from donors and his campaign is dead, whether he believes it or not.
● Christie: Loser. Christie was always a hard sell and it struck me that he was only relevant as an alternate if all the other moderates imploded. Rubio didn’t and so his role is over. His campaign is dead.
● Fiorina: Loser. She excited no one and now she’s finished. She likely didn’t even earn consideration as VP with her 1.86% performance.
● Kasi-hucka-torum-ilmore: Losers. With apologies to Animal House... 1.86%, 1.79%, 0.95%... 0.01%. Fat dumb and stupid is no way to go through life boys. Go back to your day jobs.
Even worse, Sanders has inadvertently or intentionally raised some good questions about the result last night, which means that Hillary will find herself awash in conspiracy theory (something people already want to believe about her), which may backlash against her with the very voters she needs should she ultimately win.
● Sanders: Winner. Sanders came within a hair of beating Ms. Inevitable, and in the process he totally de-pantsed Hillary when it came to young voters. What he did was expose Hillary’s utter lack of competence. In so doing, he continued to buy himself a right to continue until Hillary proves that she can slaughter him. If she can’t prove that over the next few states, he suddenly becomes a very viable replacement for the failed Hillary.
● O’Malley: Loser. O’Malley came as close to humanly possible to getting negative support. That confirms that he has no draw, no ability to replace a fallen candidate, and no ability to act as spoiler. In other words, he’s electorally useless. His campaign was dead on announcement and remains dead.
● The Mystery Outsider: Winner. The Democrats are in a panic today. It looks like Hillary should still squeak to victory, but has proven that she’s an awful candidate which no serious party should run. That opens the door to a mystery candidate with some stature to jump in, especially as the alternatives to Hillary are even less electable. This is the time to jump in if your name is Cuomo, Biden, Bloomberg, Warren, or ???. Indeed, this is the chance to be seen as the party savior and to find near total support swinging your way almost overnight.
● Rubio: The Real Winner. I would dare say this wins the election for Rubio. The question for Rubio has always been whether or not he can capture the establishment vote. So far, that hasn’t been clear. This election, in very hostile territory, proved that he can. Not only did he score 23% in a state where he should have scored single digits, but his competition all scored very, very low single digits. That will kill all the other potential establishment candidates. So look for the establishment to consolidate behind him, which means donors and about 60% of primary voters will now switch to Rubio. That also means my analysis early in the year will hold true and he will win the nomination.The Republicans
● Trump: The Biggest Loser. Trump’s campaign has been about smoke and mirrors. He’s projected the idea that some silent, angry majority existed out there waiting for a champion, and that this army of people would carry him to the White House. Even the polls helped support that idea with Trump showing as much as 43% support. But Trump’s distant second place showing (in a very Trumpy state) shatters the myth. It shows that his army of supporters either doesn’t exist or is too lazy to turn out, and they aren’t taking him anywhere. At this point, look for Trump to collapse rather quickly as the “Palin fringe” abandons him to find a “reel ‘merikan” who can destroy the RINO menace – most likely Cruz.
● Cruz: Winner. Cruz won because he beat Trump. But I hesitate to call Cruz a winner because Cruz is only a winner to the extent that he has won the crown of being the “anybody but ___” candidate of the fringe. That means he will win the southern states, but that’s about it. Even then, he still will need to fend of Trump for a few more rounds before Trump completely collapses.
● Carson: Loser. Carson’s fall from grace is complete. The fringe fell for him when they saw him as an Obama-attacking black man. But novelty acts rarely have staying power and with his background proving shaky, he mouth prone to gaffes, and his campaign being underfunded and disorganized, he’s finished, even as a VP contender.
● Paul: Loser. Paul has become forgettable. With the establishment and the fringe picking their champions, there’s just no room left for him.
● Bush: Loser. Bush’s campaign died in the summer, but he must have missed the memo. The election nailed the memo to his forehead. He will now be cut off from donors and his campaign is dead, whether he believes it or not.
● Christie: Loser. Christie was always a hard sell and it struck me that he was only relevant as an alternate if all the other moderates imploded. Rubio didn’t and so his role is over. His campaign is dead.
● Fiorina: Loser. She excited no one and now she’s finished. She likely didn’t even earn consideration as VP with her 1.86% performance.
● Kasi-hucka-torum-ilmore: Losers. With apologies to Animal House... 1.86%, 1.79%, 0.95%... 0.01%. Fat dumb and stupid is no way to go through life boys. Go back to your day jobs.
● Hillary: Loser. Ms. Inevitable has once again fallen flat on her face in Iowa. Last time, this led to fake tears, bringing out Bill, and then utter collapse as Obama mopped the floor with her. It’s unlikely the same will happen with old man Trotsky, but the fact that it seems possible has triggered every warning signal the Democrats have. By barely squeaking past a gag candidate, Hillary has shown that she cannot connect to voters, inspires no loyalty or enthusiasm, and can’t even organize a solid ground game. She is incompetent as a candidate in every possible way. This election will evoke all the doubts about her and send the Democrats into a frenzy to replace her.The Democrats
Even worse, Sanders has inadvertently or intentionally raised some good questions about the result last night, which means that Hillary will find herself awash in conspiracy theory (something people already want to believe about her), which may backlash against her with the very voters she needs should she ultimately win.
● Sanders: Winner. Sanders came within a hair of beating Ms. Inevitable, and in the process he totally de-pantsed Hillary when it came to young voters. What he did was expose Hillary’s utter lack of competence. In so doing, he continued to buy himself a right to continue until Hillary proves that she can slaughter him. If she can’t prove that over the next few states, he suddenly becomes a very viable replacement for the failed Hillary.
● O’Malley: Loser. O’Malley came as close to humanly possible to getting negative support. That confirms that he has no draw, no ability to replace a fallen candidate, and no ability to act as spoiler. In other words, he’s electorally useless. His campaign was dead on announcement and remains dead.
● The Mystery Outsider: Winner. The Democrats are in a panic today. It looks like Hillary should still squeak to victory, but has proven that she’s an awful candidate which no serious party should run. That opens the door to a mystery candidate with some stature to jump in, especially as the alternatives to Hillary are even less electable. This is the time to jump in if your name is Cuomo, Biden, Bloomberg, Warren, or ???. Indeed, this is the chance to be seen as the party savior and to find near total support swinging your way almost overnight.
55 comments:
Rubio did very well and he's clearly in the running, but the shake out won't be complete until after Nevada at the earliest. It's a three person race, and I don't know whether Cruz could beat the mystery outsider after Hillary goes away and the DNC de-nuts Bernie.
I never really saw any reason for O'Malley to run for President. He has no compelling qualities, background or politics that set him apart from the average Joe on the street. Who is giving this guy money?! He's running like Clinton did 20 some years ago as a Governor who's trying to be hip, trying to relate to the black grifters. Maybe he should bring his wife on 60 minutes and see if she can generate some media buzz around her!
I'd love to see Cruz as the nominee, though, talk about an 'anti-establishment' candidate! McConnell would sell out every Repub policy to the Dem media just to not have Cruz as Pres. We know he's already sold his soul to the Dems. For that reason alone I'd love to see Cruz in the drivers seat.
Trump is running a reality show primary for Pres and will drop out once his ratings tank. Maybe this is the first indication this country is getting tired of his shtick and will cancel the series?
Hillary! What can anyone say at this point. Dead woman walking. Her family has no more oomph politically that I can see. Bill poked his head out a few weeks ago to "save" his wife's campaign and quickly scurried back to the arms of his bimbos. Chelsea has shown herself to have zero political skills and zero personality to ever positively affect her or her mother's future. I think it's just a matter of time before she collapses physically and drops out of the race. It sure feels like the Dems have written off this election cycle and will clean house afterwards.
The big question remaining after Iowa is who is the most popular second choice among the losers' supporters. My thinking is that it's probably not Trump. As much as I like Rubio, I think the losers are more likely to flock to Cruz.
Frankly, a Cruz candidacy (or presidency) worries me. No, I don't think he'll drive the country into the ground, but I believe he could be very damaging to the GOP, which remains the only viable weapon against Democrat Progressivism. I can't quite put my finger on it, but Cruz has a Nixonian quality about him.
And can we agree at least on this site that Cruz is not an outsider? He's a Harvard grad, he clerked for SCOTUS, was Texas solicitor general, worked for the Bush admin, and his wife is VP at Goldman Sachs where Ted isn't above joining her meetings. I'm not saying anyone else is more "outside" than Cruz. I just refuse to indulge delusions.
According to the news, Rand Paul is quitting. Huckabee quit yesterday. More to come no doubt.
LL, I think Cruz gets blown out in any race that includes the regular public.
I'll be really curious what they do about Hillary. They truly have a dud on their hands but it seems like the dud will squeak out the win. They almost have to do something.
Patriot, I would guess that O'Malley either assumed he was more interesting or he figured that Hillary collapse and he would win by default. It made sense, but it didn't turn out that way.
On Cruz and Trump, ironically, I could see Trump winning the general election, but not Cruz. Cruz is pure fringe and will get blown out 65%-35%. Trump, on the other hand, fits the mindset of the public enough to get a "why the heck not?" vote. What happens after is the problem with Trump.
I think the problem from Trump now is that he's been exposed as having lots of support that doesn't actually support him. That means his actual supporters are likely to cast around now for a different champion, which means he should start to fall apart fast.
Totally agree about Hillary except that I don't see her quitting voluntarily. She will hang on for grim death. My guess is they will need to find a replacement and get this person to jump in and take it from her. The question is (1) who? and (2) do the Democrats have the nerve?
I predict that Cruz's "dual citizenship" issue will come back to haunt him in a big way in the next few weeks probably fronted by Trump. But Rubio will more likely benefit.
Trump is now claiming fraud in Iowa against Cruz.
Btw, since identity politics isn't a Republican thang, Cruz is actually the first person of Hispanic decent to win a presidential primary has not been mentioned by anyone. And considering that Rubio came in third, one would think that it would be big news for the MSM. But...{{{crickets}}}
tryanmax, I see Cruz competing for second place now and, in that, I think he's likely defeated Trump and earned the right to lose to Rubio.
In terms of a Cruz presidency, first, it will never happen. Running Cruz is like running a less popular Rush Limbaugh. The far right likes him (don't think they love him) and everyone else despises him. He loses a general election in a blow out 65-35, with almost no states swinging his way.
The danger with Cruz is that he wipes out hundreds of GOP candidates all over the country. Plus, if somehow he got elected, then I agree with you. He's going to try to settle some scores with the GOP and then he's going to do all the things he swore he won't... like amnesty. Indeed, if you listen to him with a lawyer's ear, you will hear amazingly obvious caveats in all of his promises and a bias toward BIG "conservative" government.
Bev, They aren't Hispanic because they aren't Democrats. Duh. ;-)
Great point, by the way.
I'm not surprised that Trump would whine and that his target would be Cruz, because they are competing for the same audience. I see Trump trying hard to destroy Cruz between now and New Hampster.
Andrew - Cuomo is a total no-go. He's in so much potential trouble in NY, he wouldn't dare jump in. Warren is just Sanders in a dress. And Bloomberg is not even in the party and they aren't that desperate yet.
Biden is the most likely choice or ???.
Bev, None of them are ideal, but I could see any of them trying. They are all better candidates than Hillary. The only other name I've heard is the CEO of Starbucks, but he said no.
They don't have much in the way of a farm team, do they?
Andrew, maybe that's where I get the negative vibe from Cruz. I tend to pick up on the caveats without realizing it. Then I get into circular arguments with other people about what someone just said.
Bev, Andrew, it makes sense that the Dems have no farm team. They're basically the party of crony, yuppie Boomers, which means their driving ethos is to get as much as you can for yourself and shut everyone else out. I'm certain Hillary has killed a lot of careers to keep the competition thin. Which makes her squeaker over Bernie all the more humiliating.
tryamax, Almost everything he says is caveated. Even his "strong" stances on immigration always have this big opening thrown in at the end where he all but says that he will find a way to grant a path to citizenship. His supporters just don't want to hear it because they only listen to the first part of what he says before he goes all legaleze.
On the farm team, I think Obama is mainly to blame. He's systematically wiped out anyone who could challenge him and this pile of "dreck" is all that is left. And even those he couldn't reach personally all got wiped out in the Republican waves in each of the past several elections.
BTW, I agree about Hillary doing the same thing in terms of killing careers. And yeah, coming in less than 1% ahead of a thousand year old socialist must be utterly humiliating for her.
I still think Obama would like to throw Hillary under the bus and bring in Biden,,who will do what he is told...Obama can then concentrate on getting rid of Bernie the Bolshevik..On the GOP side, I have problems liking Cruz,,for a variety of reasons,,,I really liked the idea of Kasich coming in, but he's been very lackluster, like Rand Paul and Huckabee and others...no fire....Christie is just a Democrat with a Republican label, like Bloomberg. Rubio has my son's vote..they range in age from 22-31 and all are college graduates...they tell me that their friends on the left are either supporting Bernie or no one. That could really hurt Hillary in a general election.
Yeah, the Dems really have no one to draw from and I guess O'Malley really was their only under 65 farm team candidate.
Btw, I LIKE the "legaleze" portion of Cruz's schtick. That's why I think he would make an excellent AG.
Critch - I know a lot of female Dems who cannot bring themselves to vote for Hillary. And say if it's Hillary, they won't vote. Of course they aren't thrilled with Bernie either.
This seems like an appropriate juncture to point out how awful Hillary's bumper-sticker slogan is.
"I'm ready for Hillary.
That sounds like: I've braced myself. I can take it. Give me your worst! But then, it's fitting for a candidate as tone-deaf as she.
Tryanmax - They really are tone-deaf and she really thinks she can win with the "first woman in the WH" campaigning. Or "If you don't vote for me, you're a sexist or self-loathing woman".
Throwing back to the mocking I recently mentioned, been chomping at the bit since Cruz and Rubio entered the race to the White House to ask my Demo-friends how long they've hated Hispanics and/or thought they looooooved Cubans. I should probably lay off the Cuban thing, though, eh?
On the Dems being old, that won't last when the millennials start coming of age. Which is why the Republicans need to start wooing them —fast.
We're riding on a bunch of Reagan-era Gen-Xers.
If that doesn't spook you: 84% of Iowa caucus voters aged 18-29 voted for Bernie Sanders.
EP - It's a legitimate question - both are children of Cuban immigrants escaping Castro's Cuba much like those Syrian immigrants escaping ISIS et al.
Kit - that 84% 18-29 voters for Sanders doesn't surprise me a bit. It just goes long with the old adage (attributed to Churchill) "If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain."
Bev,
Actually, it should worry you. Reagan won the youth vote in 1984. We are getting clobbered in it. There could be a Democrat wave coming our way in a decade if we aren't careful.
Sure hope Republican Gen X'ers like Cruz, Rubio, et al are sending their kids to charter schools. :-)
Maybe there's a few folks out there like me on this. We are not enamored with almost all of the candidates. Grudgingly we will cast our vote for anyone that is not a Democrat. After having thrown my vote away on Libertarian candidates, I've accepted that the only alternative left is anyone with an R after their name.
I want someone to radically transform this country back to what I've read and studied as it's founding ideals. Small government, citizen soldiers (no standing Army), rule of law - not men, entrepreneurship, the opportunity for anyone with a skill others are willing to pay for to be able to capitalize on that skill to support their family free of intrusive government interference. I believe our original ideals have been corrupted by the ability of the government to redistribute earned income to those not willing to sacrifice, work hard and be responsible for their actions.
Which of the current crop of fools running will be able to begin the transformation? About the only one I've seen willing to stick his neck out is Cruz. All the others are "politicians" first and foremost and will tell voters what they want to hear. I felt a certain frisson when Cruz stood up to the supposedly invincible Iowa corn ethanol supporters and said he didn't agree with it. That to me took more character than anything Trump or Rubio have ever said or did.
So, absent any scandals coming from the Dems/media and his Repub opponents, I will stick with Cruz.
Gotta have something to base my vote on, amirite?
Kit - It won't worry me until Sanders is declared the nominee. But by then the Jewish issue will crop up. (Hillary will bring this up at some point through her proxies) He can claim he is a secular Jew, but that won't actually matter. He will have to face the youth BDS movement amongst those campus liberals...
"He will have to face the youth BDS movement amongst those campus liberals..."
Good point, I am now so looking forward to that!
But I do think the millennial thing is an issue the GOP should work on
Kit - I agree about the youth issue for the Republicans. it has always been a problem. But we have more youthful candidates on our side too. Unless Bernie or Hillary can find a youngin'. I heard early on Hillary was looking at Julian Castro - Sec't of HUD
What, Bev, former LA mayor Tony Villaraigosa too small potatoes for Hillsy? ;-)
Kit, it's not as bleak as all that. The 84% figure is drawn exclusively from Democrats. The Democrat party has a slightly larger percentage of young voters than Republicans, 18% vs 12%. That still means 48% of young Iowa caucus-goers voted for Sanders, but you have to consider that caucus turnout is a show of true believers and not of the general electorate in a state that doesn't even reflect the nation as a whole.
Another thing you might consider--though all you have is my say-so--the voice of William Jennings Bryan still seems to echo in the plains states, and anyone who bears a passing resemblance to the Great Commoner gets an automatic boost. Bernie isn't as politically unclassifiable as a WJB, but he certainly sidesteps the lines of both parties.
Critch, I get the sense that there will be a lot of Bernie or Bust voters out there who will stay home in November.
As for Obama, there has been a lot of discussion that he hates the idea of Hillary winning and replacing his cronies with her cronies. I could see him doing his best to bring in Biden.
Bev, Cruz would make an excellent AG. He even has the temperament for it -- total -sshole.
tryanmax, LOL! If that doesn't sound like... "Ok, I've had some time to brace myself. I can take Hillary now."
She should try: "Hillary: The best you're going to get this time."
"Hillary: Deal with it."
"Hillary: Not as bad as you think."
Eric, Democrats don't like minorities who think for themselves.
Kit, We definitely need to broaden our appeal.
Patriot, I can't say you are wrong for what you want. I'd love to see that too. But sadly, what you are after isn't possible in our system. All that is possible is incrementalism. Unfortunately, none of our political class get that. We tend to get either guys who just want to run big government in another direction or guys who yell and scream, but are just tilting at windmills. We need someone who understands how to set a lot of this into motion without drawing a backlash.
At the same time though, we need a new platform that attracts middle America. Without that, we will continue to bleed support and keep the Democrats competitive.
Kit and Bev, Even a change in attitude would help. The problem is that every time something like the massive cost of college comes up, the immediate response on the right is to talk about whiny young people and how they walked uphill in the snow both ways to the "self-made-man" school in their day.
It's the same thing with women and minorities. Attitude is the first problem. A lack of anything in the platform to address the worries of these people is second.
Eric, That's an interesting name. I don't know much about how his tenure ran, but he is yet another person who strikes as someone with enough national cache to be able to jump into the race... at least, if I was a desperate Democrat. Frankly, I'll be thrilled to have a wounded Hillary win the nomination! :)
tryanmax, We are in an age where being "the common man" strikes a huge chord with either party and the public. I think this comes from the sense that the government is divorced from common sense these days.
Santorum is out. Add him to the pile with Huckabee and Paul.
AP, Antonio, as with any statist masquerading as Robin Hood, is beloved in the Hell-A area, and I highly suspect he didn't throw his hat into the CA governor's race because he envisioned an appointment of some sort from whomever the Dem's nominate for the White House. Just a guess, though, and (blessedly, for now) I haven't heard a peep from him since he put the Mayor's office in his rearview. We'll see what happens.
So Santorum was actually still running? I thought he was out a long time ago.
And who is Jim Gilmore? He got 12 votes in Iowa on Monday...
Bev, Jim Gilmore was Virginia's AG when I lived there. He may have become governor too at some point, but I'm not sure. And I'm wondering how many of those 12 were actually movie goers who thought they were seeing Happy Gilmore.
Yeah, little Ricky was running. Presumably God told him to go spend time in Iowa and then quit.
Eric, It sounds like he could make a pretty good run at it, given the crappy field.
In any event, I suspect that the role of Democratic savior will be a first-come first chosen kind of position. So anyone interested should act fast.
Nice breakdown and I agree with your assessment. Rubio is sitting well especially if he has a good showing in New Hampshire. I think with some of the garbage out of the way, the debates should be better. Cruz is brilliant but soulless; Trump is an experience executive but a complete dick; Rubio is very articulate but seems so young. Rubio needs a little touch of grey to garner some legitimacy. As for Trump, the whole Megan Kelly fight has bothered my Trump-loving conservative friends. They don't get what he is trying to prove. I just point out he isn't trying to prove anything; this is just Trump being Trump which is a total dick.
While the GOP has real candidates with charisma and experience, the Dems are just a mess. How does Wasserman keep her job? She is a disaster. However, once the party decides on who they want, they will bunker down and piss on our legs calling it rain. Hillary will be the nominee even if they have to conjure up photo-shopped pictures of Sanders having sex with underage, male prostitutes. The only thing stopping her is if she were to be indicted by the US Attorney General. There is plenty already to do so but Obama (and it is his call) is too much of a pussy to do it (probably because of pictures of him smoking weed with underage male prostitutes).
>> Hillary will be the nominee even if they have to conjure up photo-shopped pictures of Sanders having sex with underage, male prostitutes.>>
Barney Frank's returning to DC prominence?
Here's a question for Andrew -
Can the President issue a Presidential Pardon to someone who has only been indicted, but not yet convicted of a crime?
Thanks Koshcat! I agree. I don't think Obama will allow an indictment to go forward because that would come to define his presidency, just as Ford pardoning Nixon came to define him. He would rather give Hillary the cold shoulder and let her go down on her own.
Eric, You can take Barney out of the DC gay bars, but you can't really stop the party. Underage male prostitutes will always find work in DC.
Bev, Yes, he can. Huh, great use of his slogan. Anyways, the President can issue a pardon at any time to cover any set of events, which will effectively cut off prosecution because the person essentially gets immunity for whatever might have happened.
So he could say, "I pardon Hillary for any and all crimes that may have been committed related to the use or possession of government emails between X and Y date."
>>You can take Barney out of the DC gay bars, but you can't really stop the party. Underage male prostitutes will always find work in DC. >>
In my best MJ, don't thtop till you get enough ...
Andrew,
"Kit and Bev, Even a change in attitude would help. The problem is that every time something like the massive cost of college comes up, the immediate response on the right is to talk about whiny young people and how they walked uphill in the snow both ways to the "self-made-man" school in their day.
It's the same thing with women and minorities. Attitude is the first problem. A lack of anything in the platform to address the worries of these people is second."
I've told you this over email a thousand times but please, read Conservative Heart and Too Dumb to Fail.
Koshcat,
My Mom said Rubio needs to grow a beard like Paul Ryan did, to hide his "baby cheeks".
"As for Trump, the whole Megan Kelly fight has bothered my Trump-loving conservative friends. They don't get what he is trying to prove. I just point out he isn't trying to prove anything; this is just Trump being Trump which is a total dick"
Nailed it. "Trump being Trump which is a total dick" sums uphill entire approach this campaign season.
Kit - I am actually surprised that Rubio and Cruz are the same age - 45. Rubio looks 30-ish. Now maybe does not seem so young to me.
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