Once again I find myself without a clear thought and without the time to form one. So, let this be a day for free-form thoughts and comments on the subjects of your choice.
I can find the raw vote totals for the GOP in Iowa, but not for the Dims..is this typical for the Dims to not show the total votes? Seems fishy to me..
Critch - I my be wrong, but the Iowa Dems vote by precinct - one vote per precinct. That's why they have that " coin-toss" issue. If a precinct couldn't decide, they tossed a coin...
Critch, Bev, I heard something on the news about that this morning. CNN has a headline: No, Hillary Clinton did not win Iowa because of a coin flip Clearly, there is some contention amongst Democrats.
But here must still be some sort of raw votes out there...I'm hearing that the cauci attended by the Dims didn't have anywhere near the people that the GOP has.
Critch - I think that interested Dems meet at their precinct's appointed location and they do it by a show of hands. No one actually goes into a booth and votes and then the votes are counted. So it could be decided by 1 person if no on shows up. Then the press will ever know how many people showed up unless it's a really big turnout and they WANT them to know.
Okay, I am just assuming this is how it works. The Republicans had a much bigger stake, so they were much more transparent. Except The Donald has accused Cruz of stealing the votes.
Critch, Sanders is asking for the raw voting totals too and they have so far refused to give it to him. That's really bad for Hillary because it will feed to impression among Sanders' young voters that she stole the election.
Thought one: Twitter is confirmation bias in motion. It lets reporters or whoever wants to flip through a thousand answers that are unrepresentative of anything and pick out the ones that confirm the answer they want to believe.
Thought two: bad sign for Trump. He gave a speech in Arkansas, which he touted as having a crowd of 12,000 people which he claimed was a record that even beat a ZZ Top concert in that venue. The problem is that the venue only hold 10,000 people and half of it was empty.
Lying about crowd size is a sign of desperation. I'm thinking Trump knows the damage he took in Iowa and he knows he can't let people think he's losing support or he's finished.
Bev, It is. You can essentially find any opinion you want on any topic on Twitter. And that's what reporters are doing. They find what they want to support their articles. Then they toss these into articles as if they represent public opinion. None of them seem to get how wrong this is.
Twitter is our modern-day version of the village stocks where people can go to spit on those they don't like. Or at it's worst it is used for flushing out heretics and witches, then burning them at the stake of public opinion.
Though on a positive note, it does let loose-fingered politicians show their true colors and general contempt for having to answer directly to the unwashed masses that are their constituents.
The Democrat caucus system is weird. There are no votes, i.e. ballots, to tally. You vote with your body by standing in designated areas and a head count is taken. But before that, a big part of caucusing is to actually try to persuade (bully) other people into switch their vote in the process. There's also some sort of viability threshold in which supporters of a candidate drawing too few votes (I think under 15% in the precinct) are forced to pick a different candidate. In other words, it's the perfect voting system for socialist progressives.
As far as Bernie's demand for a recount, there's nothing to recount. Numbers are jotted down and phoned in somewhere but there's no way to check that against individual votes. Bernie ought to know all of this, so now he looks even more foolish.
Regarding turnout, HuffPo reports that 186,874 Iowans participated in the Republican caucus and 171,109 participated in the Democratic caucus, and this constituted 15.7% of eligible voters. According to the Washington Times, this represented a 50% increase in turnout for the GOP over 2012! Democrat turnout, on the other hand, was down 30%.
What better way to caucus? Do they physically try to steal people for designated areas against their will and drag them over to the other designated area? Now THAT would be fun! They could have a time limit...like you have 10 mins to drag as many delegates to your area as you can...and GO!
So a smart candidate would (1) place donuts, alcohol and other addictive substances in their area, while (2) planting supporters in the other area who (a) appear to be dying of some sort of skin rotting disease, (b) are highly flatulent, and/or (c) just happened to bring their rabid pit bull on a rusty chain.
Oooh, I like your caucus better, Andrew. It has intrigue, sabotage, spies, and free donuts! And more choice than my method. If you don't like flatulent, skin rotting corpses, you get to make your choice whether to move to the other area! Much more free-will-ish.
I confess I am uninterested in the mechanics of the Iowa caucus, but it highlights how amazingly terrible a candidate Hillary is. Now that Trump is a goner, Clinton's chances at her opponent saying something idiotic which would give her a Carly Fiorina/Sandra Fluke style boost are much, much dimmer.
Anthony - Clonton has always been a Teri lie candidate. The only issue she can campaign on is that she is a woman. That's her entire strategy. Also why Bill has been quickly sidelined. The only thing I can give Trump credit for. Let's not get cocky that Trump is out yet until after NH. I have to say that Rubio is looking more viable to me.
Bev, There is a lot of evidence today that Rubio's support is already surging and Trump's support is collapsing. Obviously, we won't know until it starts to happen in more primaries, but we'll see... the evidence is there.
The big news in NYC today is if the NYC Council will have the chutzpah to unilaterally vote themselves a 32% pay raise retroactive to 1/1/2016. The fall out will be breathtaking...like the citizens unilaterally deciding to decrease their city tax burden by 32%.
I don't put any faith in polls these days for a number of reasons, but Hillary seems to have lost 20% among Democrats since Iowa. That's the inevitability rubbing off.
I'm truly amazed no other Democrats have started making noises about jumping in.
I think the reason nobody competent has challenged Hillary is A) she is good at projecting inevitability B) its awful late in the game and C) whoever wins stands a good chance of being destroyed by the Republicans in the general.
If recent history is any guide, if the Republicans win everything in 2016, 2020 will be a strong year for Democrats (when a party has all three branches, everything wrong with the world is its fault and there is nowhere to go but down).
The Federal Transportation folks told St Louis City they can't decorate their crosswalks anymore...don't the feds have better tings to do than worry about crosswalks in St Louis? I guess not.
Kit- "Latin"? Why "Latin? isn't that a dead language?" Swear, that is a question asked in my college "History of Grammar" course I had in college...stunned the prof...and me...haunts me to this day.
I took 3 years of Latin in high school....our teacher on the first day taught us some dirty words and phrases just to get it out of our systems as she put it...
A long time since I have journeyed to the blogosphere. Andy, sorry you have been in the hospital. Wow, Marco sure stepped in shit last night. A Dan Quayle moment? I guess we will have to see, but he sure looked really bad
She was a neat teacher, she got her bachelors at Vanderbilt and her masters at the University of Toleedo and another masters at the University of Rome. She wanted us to appreciate Latin as the language it was and not just something used in law and medicine..We also learned about their penchant for puns...
37 comments:
I can find the raw vote totals for the GOP in Iowa, but not for the Dims..is this typical for the Dims to not show the total votes? Seems fishy to me..
Critch - I my be wrong, but the Iowa Dems vote by precinct - one vote per precinct. That's why they have that " coin-toss" issue. If a precinct couldn't decide, they tossed a coin...
Critch, Bev, I heard something on the news about that this morning. CNN has a headline: No, Hillary Clinton did not win Iowa because of a coin flip Clearly, there is some contention amongst Democrats.
But here must still be some sort of raw votes out there...I'm hearing that the cauci attended by the Dims didn't have anywhere near the people that the GOP has.
Critch - I think that interested Dems meet at their precinct's appointed location and they do it by a show of hands. No one actually goes into a booth and votes and then the votes are counted. So it could be decided by 1 person if no on shows up. Then the press will ever know how many people showed up unless it's a really big turnout and they WANT them to know.
Okay, I am just assuming this is how it works. The Republicans had a much bigger stake, so they were much more transparent. Except The Donald has accused Cruz of stealing the votes.
Kit - This is what I was talking about yesterday about trouble ahead for Sanders being Jewish, even nominally Jewish...Vassar Students Seek Ben & Jerrys Ban Because of Israel
Critch, Sanders is asking for the raw voting totals too and they have so far refused to give it to him. That's really bad for Hillary because it will feed to impression among Sanders' young voters that she stole the election.
Thought one: Twitter is confirmation bias in motion. It lets reporters or whoever wants to flip through a thousand answers that are unrepresentative of anything and pick out the ones that confirm the answer they want to believe.
Thoughts?
Thought two: bad sign for Trump. He gave a speech in Arkansas, which he touted as having a crowd of 12,000 people which he claimed was a record that even beat a ZZ Top concert in that venue. The problem is that the venue only hold 10,000 people and half of it was empty.
LINK for photos
Lying about crowd size is a sign of desperation. I'm thinking Trump knows the damage he took in Iowa and he knows he can't let people think he's losing support or he's finished.
Andrew - You are right about Twitter being "confirmation bias in motion". But it is an equal opportunity "confirmation bias".
Bev, It is. You can essentially find any opinion you want on any topic on Twitter. And that's what reporters are doing. They find what they want to support their articles. Then they toss these into articles as if they represent public opinion. None of them seem to get how wrong this is.
Twitter is our modern-day version of the village stocks where people can go to spit on those they don't like. Or at it's worst it is used for flushing out heretics and witches, then burning them at the stake of public opinion.
Though on a positive note, it does let loose-fingered politicians show their true colors and general contempt for having to answer directly to the unwashed masses that are their constituents.
The Democrat caucus system is weird. There are no votes, i.e. ballots, to tally. You vote with your body by standing in designated areas and a head count is taken. But before that, a big part of caucusing is to actually try to persuade (bully) other people into switch their vote in the process. There's also some sort of viability threshold in which supporters of a candidate drawing too few votes (I think under 15% in the precinct) are forced to pick a different candidate. In other words, it's the perfect voting system for socialist progressives.
As far as Bernie's demand for a recount, there's nothing to recount. Numbers are jotted down and phoned in somewhere but there's no way to check that against individual votes. Bernie ought to know all of this, so now he looks even more foolish.
Regarding turnout, HuffPo reports that 186,874 Iowans participated in the Republican caucus and 171,109 participated in the Democratic caucus, and this constituted 15.7% of eligible voters. According to the Washington Times, this represented a 50% increase in turnout for the GOP over 2012! Democrat turnout, on the other hand, was down 30%.
And if anyone was curious, the Iowa Republican caucus operates like a mini electoral college.
What better way to caucus? Do they physically try to steal people for designated areas against their will and drag them over to the other designated area? Now THAT would be fun! They could have a time limit...like you have 10 mins to drag as many delegates to your area as you can...and GO!
So a smart candidate would (1) place donuts, alcohol and other addictive substances in their area, while (2) planting supporters in the other area who (a) appear to be dying of some sort of skin rotting disease, (b) are highly flatulent, and/or (c) just happened to bring their rabid pit bull on a rusty chain.
Oooh, I like your caucus better, Andrew. It has intrigue, sabotage, spies, and free donuts! And more choice than my method. If you don't like flatulent, skin rotting corpses, you get to make your choice whether to move to the other area! Much more free-will-ish.
Lying about besting ZZ Top? Good thing Trump only attempted that in Arkansas.
On Monday, Andrew Klavan tweeted something along the lines of "I'd forgotten how undemocratic the Democratic Party caucuses were."
Kit - I kind of like the "Lord of the Flies" element to their caucus.
I confess I am uninterested in the mechanics of the Iowa caucus, but it highlights how amazingly terrible a candidate Hillary is. Now that Trump is a goner, Clinton's chances at her opponent saying something idiotic which would give her a Carly Fiorina/Sandra Fluke style boost are much, much dimmer.
Anthony - Clonton has always been a Teri lie candidate. The only issue she can campaign on is that she is a woman. That's her entire strategy. Also why Bill has been quickly sidelined. The only thing I can give Trump credit for.
Let's not get cocky that Trump is out yet until after NH. I have to say that Rubio is looking more viable to me.
Bev, There is a lot of evidence today that Rubio's support is already surging and Trump's support is collapsing. Obviously, we won't know until it starts to happen in more primaries, but we'll see... the evidence is there.
The big news in NYC today is if the NYC Council will have the chutzpah to unilaterally vote themselves a 32% pay raise retroactive to 1/1/2016. The fall out will be breathtaking...like the citizens unilaterally deciding to decrease their city tax burden by 32%.
I don't put any faith in polls these days for a number of reasons, but Hillary seems to have lost 20% among Democrats since Iowa. That's the inevitability rubbing off.
I'm truly amazed no other Democrats have started making noises about jumping in.
UPDATE: The NYC Council just voted themselves a $35,000 a year raise to be paid retroactively to 1/1/2016. No input from the citizens/taxpayers.
Andrew,
I think the reason nobody competent has challenged Hillary is A) she is good at projecting inevitability B) its awful late in the game and C) whoever wins stands a good chance of being destroyed by the Republicans in the general.
If recent history is any guide, if the Republicans win everything in 2016, 2020 will be a strong year for Democrats (when a party has all three branches, everything wrong with the world is its fault and there is nowhere to go but down).
Sorry, no post this weekend.
I have a Latin test to study for but I did go to see Hail, Caesar and heartily recommend it to anyone who wants a gentle parody of the old studio era.
The Federal Transportation folks told St Louis City they can't decorate their crosswalks anymore...don't the feds have better tings to do than worry about crosswalks in St Louis? I guess not.
Kit- "Latin"? Why "Latin? isn't that a dead language?" Swear, that is a question asked in my college "History of Grammar" course I had in college...stunned the prof...and me...haunts me to this day.
I took 3 years of Latin in high school....our teacher on the first day taught us some dirty words and phrases just to get it out of our systems as she put it...
Bev,
I pray that woman is tormented by the ghosts of Caesar, Cicero, and Augustus for her blasphemy.
A long time since I have journeyed to the blogosphere. Andy, sorry you have been in the hospital. Wow, Marco sure stepped in shit last night. A Dan Quayle moment? I guess we will have to see, but he sure looked really bad
She was a neat teacher, she got her bachelors at Vanderbilt and her masters at the University of Toleedo and another masters at the University of Rome. She wanted us to appreciate Latin as the language it was and not just something used in law and medicine..We also learned about their penchant for puns...
Critch,
She sounds like a neat teacher.
Hi Jed! Good to hear from you! I hope all is well! :)
We'll see about Rubio. I don't think it matters.
Congratulations to the an amazing Bronco's defense and to Peyton Manning. What a phenomenal ending to a great career. That was well deserved!
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