Thursday, January 18, 2018

It's The Economy, Stupid

The left (and Jeff Flake) must be furious. Have you seen the economic data?

● The stock market is at an all-time high.

● Jobless claims fell to a 45 year low this month... since February 1973.

● Home building is at the highest level since 2007.

● Since the GOP/Trump tax cuts have passed, company after company is announcing massive bonuses to employees, reinvestment in the US and repatriation. Apple is the latest, announcing $2,500 bonuses to all employees, the creation of 20,000 US jobs this year, the opening of new US campuses, the repatriation of $252 billion in overseas cash triggering $38 billion in tax payments, and investment of $350 billion in the US over the next five years.

That's impressive and it's only the latest company to make such promises. At least 80 other big companies have announced bonuses on the order of $1,000 per employee, pay raises, new investment, etc. Walmart is giving bonuses, hiking wages, offering new paid maternity leave, and is offering a form of payday loan without interest.

These are good times to work in corporate America.

Of course, the left is now desperately trying to give the credit to Obama, but I doubt anyone is buying that. Things really feel like the economic wheel had stopped under Obama and now the economy has started fresh. Don't forget either that at no point under Obama did the economy ever hit 4% GNP -- a first for Presidents -- and the leftist media machine was telling us that 4% wasn't possible anymore in the modern world. Current GNP is 5.3%.

● Lastly, do you remember how China had overtaken us to have the world's biggest economy? Do you remember how I told you this was BS and relied on faked data? Well, now we are being warned by the same people that China will overtake us in a decade. It wasn't true then and it's not true now. China's economy is about 75% of ours and is actually getting smaller by comparison. What's more, higher wages, corruption and awful demographics will keep China from getting much bigger before it begins to fall. Nothing to fear here, folks.



AndrewPrice said...

... and the Huffpo crowd is in a tizzy that Trump's military physician "lied" about his weight. Talk about out of touch with reality.

tryanmax said...

Saw a great quip: "If Trump truly lied about his weight, then in a way, we have our first woman president."

tryanmax said...

On China, the thing to compare is the GDP per capita. I'm no expert, but I do know that per capita measurements of national statistics give a more accurate picture. Check this out:

US GDP per capita: 57,466.79 USD (2016)
China GDP per capita: 8,123.18 USD (2016)

AndrewPrice said...

Wow! LOL!

Great fact to point out. To get the "they passed us" or "they will pass us" they use all kinds of fudge factors that make no sense except to grow the Chinese number. When you look at the numbers straight up or even using exchange rates, the Chinese economy is only 75% of ours... if that. When you look at per capita GDP, as you do, China becomes even more dubious.

BevfromNYC said...

Also this on Twitter:

You know a Republican is in the White House when Apple announces a commitment to the economy of $350B and 20,000 new jobs, North and South Korea are talking, the Dow closes above 26,000 for the first time... and the news media is focused like a laser on the President’s weight.

I take the numbers with a grain of salt, but COME ON, PEOPLE! This is all good news no matter HOW much the President weighs!

One note though: At the same time Walmart was giving out bonus checks, they were also announcing store closures...

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Do you know what's interesting about the Walmart closings? They are Sam's Club stores and my first thought is that they can't compete with Costco. But when I saw the list, they were almost all in dark blue, high-tax states: New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois. I think there's more to this than economic conditions.

BevfromNYC said...

Andrew - Now THAT I did not know about Sam's Club closings. Interesting.

Also hysterical that all the Blue State liberals tax us 'til it/we can take libs are now screaming and running for the hills bc of the tax reforms. Seriously, Gov. Cuomo and Mayor Deblasio and other Dems are actually trying to figure out a way to tax them MORE! It's funny of course until I win the lottery and I will be soooooo mad then! [Hear that, Lottery Gods? Go ahead make me win millions! I dare you!!!]

Anthony said...

Impressive numbers.

There has been a lot of teeth gnashing about China over the past two decades or so but I remember the Rising Sun hysteria.

tryanmax said...

Andrew, Bev,

I would believe that Sam's Club can't compete with Costco, though. Sam's can't even compete with Walmart! Seriously, I dropped my membership as soon as I sorted out that, pound for pound and ounce for ounce, Walmart store brands are cheaper than Sam's store brands! If you're name-brand conscious, yeah, you'll save on Tide. But if all you want is "Laundry Detergent" you actually spend more!

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Good luck with the lottery! LOL! 'm not surprised they are trying to find a way to raise taxes because they're about to take a huge hit as rich people move away and they're addicted to that money.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I'm really impressed with the numbers. I think this speaks to pent up activity under Obama/Bush being unleashed now.

As you note, the China thing has happened before.

- In the 1930s, we compared ourselves to Germany and overestimated them.

- The early 1950s were optimistic. Then we feared the juggernaut of the Soviet economy would crush us and leave us in the dust in the 1950s and 1960s - they went belly up.

- In the 1970s, the world was coming to an end... American was going to starve, freeze and go broke -- none of which happened.

- In the late 1970s and 1980s, the Japanese were going to pass us by -- until they hit permanent stagnation.

- For a brief moment (six months maybe) it was the EU.

- In the 1990s, it was the BRICs -- until they proved to be the basket cases they seemed.

Now it's China. Next it will be India.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, That's interesting. We dropped out Sam's Club membership two years ago because we never used it. We belong to Costco. They have things we get every week and can't find elsewhere. Their steaks are really good (not quite prime, but quite cheap), their popcorn... we got two 13 pound boxes of oranges :)!! They also always seem to have things you wouldn't think to buy there. For example, we just bought my wife a laptop from there when we stumbled upon an amazing in-store deal.

tryanmax said...

I've got Costco, too. Way better! We found these hardwood folding chairs with upholstered seats. You'd never know they're folding chairs when they're pulled out. They're apparently a regular item, so the next time they go on special, we're getting more. I haven't tried the steaks, but I will now. I need a new laptop, too.

AndrewPrice said...

Their ribeye steaks are near-prime quality and much cheaper than the grocery stores.

Costco is where we got my oldest her giant bears. We've been looking at their beds lately too.

The one thing we don't like from there is their Kirkland brand drinks. We've ended up throwing away several of those items. But that's the only thing we found we didn't like.

Love their mac and cheese! :D

AndrewPrice said...

The laptop is an HP. It has an 8th generation Intel processor (i7), 1 terabyte harddrive, touchscreen, backlit keyboard, Intel graphics card, and all the extras for $499. That was an insane price, so we got it. It probably should have been at least double that price.

The funny thing is we just randomly dropped by. We didn't think about Costco for computers and then we saw this and jumped on it. Everything we had seen online at places like Best Buy were a couple hundred more for older processors and less memory. We were actually looking for a veggie tray and that was all when we came upon this.

Tennessee Jed said...

very good news from my perspective. So much so, we upgraded our seats on a flight to Alaska to first class, and didn't feel all that badly about it.

BevfromNYC said...

TennJ - I hear that Alaska Airlines is a really great airline to fly too.

Koshcat said...

I find the numbers on China suspect. They have a population 3.2x our population but if you divide the US per capita by 3.2, you still get a number that is 2x the per capita for China. I think their GDP is fudged.

If the Fed unwinds rapidly, like they should but they won't, it will hit the stock market. If they then can breath and not do anything, the "correction" will clear itself by rearranging money. There will be a correction; there always is. It just a matter of how and when.

We use both Costco and Sams. Only problem with Costco is they are run by a bunch of limousine liberals.

BevfromNYC said...

Also, Costco v. Sam's Club...I think both are fine if you need to buy 24 roles of toilet paper or paper towels. And their electronics, kitchen equipment and stuff like that are great bargains. But unless you have a big family or are feeding an army, their fresh veg and fruits are just not such a great bargain. It seems that anything that has a long shelf life like canned and bottled goods are a great bargain too. But you really have to have the storage space to keep them. And I love cheese, but even I can't eat a 5 lb wheel of cheese before it gets moldy. However, if you like Kerrygold butter, at the Dallas Sam's that I go to when I'm home, they sell at a steal at $7 and it freezes well too...that same butter in NYC is up to $12!

Stacy said...

You can always share the cost and split those giant packages with someone. I do that with my daughter now that she is out on her own.

tryanmax said...

I do similar. I have friends w/ Sam's memberships and I'll take them to Costco and they take me to Sam's.

Critch said...

The Sam's that is closing in Memphis is in a high crime area, there is another Sam's in North Mississippi not 12 miles away...and it's staying open.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Stacy, and tryanmax, We do that too sometimes. We'll split things with my parents or my sister or a neighbor now and then. Mostly though, we use the stuff we buy.

We just bought a 13 pound box of oranges. I'm AWASH in vitamin C now. :D

AndrewPrice said...

Critch, That makes sense.

AndrewPrice said...

WARNING: The Pussy Head marchers are back to remind us of all that they still exist... since there are no other signs of it.

While they claim they had five million participants worldwide last time, a total fabrication on the order of at least 5-1, this time they seem to scoring in the 40k range in New York and Philly and far less in other cities.

So the fake movement that died the moment these women littered their signs and stomped off to Starbucks last time has now proven that it's lost 90% of its strength in a year and thereby demonstrating that, as Monty Python might say... this is a dead movement.

Expect delays at area Starbucks in major cities.

AndrewPrice said...

I love the delusion at places like Yahoo. Here's a headline and blurb:

"Major Strategy Shift for Democrats... Rather than play it safe in this election year, the Democrats have decided to challenge an unpopular president."

What rational person can claim that the Democrats haven't been "challenging" Trump. There isn't a moment they haven't smeared him, goosestep opposed him, or tried to impeach him.

There is zero mention of the Handful of Chicks March on Yahoo too.

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