Kit's Friday's Thoughts on the Debate

The first debate was last night. More later today, but here are my first thoughts.

The 9pm debate was… actually pretty good. And it wasn’t just enjoyable because of Trump. It was actually a fun debate to watch, probably the most enjoyable Republican Debate I’ve watched since I started watching them in 2008. Some people complained the moderators were too “anti-conservative” in their questions. Personally, as long as they don’t hand the Democrats an issue, I don’t mind.

There are, of course, people saying they went “easy” on the candidates they did not like. All were given hard questions.

But let's face it, you all want to hear about one man: The Trump.

Well…

He was Trump and, if Frank Luntz’s focus group is any indication, it hurt him. Two moments early in the debate killed him.
The first was when the candidates were all asked to raise their hands if they would not commit to supporting the nominee next year and only Trump raised his hand, eliciting the loudest boos I’ve heard directed at a candidate during a debate. The second was when he made his little snipe at Megyn Kelly that came across as childish and a bit whiny.
And that was only the beginning, as one member of the focus group said, “He dodged more questions than any politician I’ve ever seen.”

I’ll have the rest later today.

UPDATE:

Christie/Paul Clash: Those two feuded over NSA surveillance and it was EPIC. You’ve probably seen the clips and if you haven’t, you will soon. Now, as for who won, despite the claims by some that Christie won this round, I think it was a draw.

Ben Carson: He did poorly. It was quite painful for me to watch, actually. Only at the end, when he talked about his work as a surgeon in his concluding statements, did he pick himself back up.

Jeb Bush: He sort of faded into the background. I felt his only strong point came when he was asked about Common Core. The rest of the night he seemed nervous and tired. But this won't hurt him too much. He didn't have to hit a hem r he had to do was not strike out.

Marco Rubio: He did well. His most memorable moment came when he said, “God has blessed us with some very good candidates, the Democrats can’t even find one.”

Scott Walker: Ok night. He didn’t stand out a whole lot, however. He struggled, I think, on abortion and immigration. He stays in the race for the next debate.

Huckabee: He had a very good night. He won’t ride home with the nomination and, yes, I have problems with his emphasis on social issues but he reminded why he reminded why he has an enduring popularity among social conservatives. He had some very good one-liners, especially his Hillary joke, and had one of the best moments of the night with his attack on Obama for failing to get back even one of the hostages Iran is holding.

Ted Cruz: He was Cruz. He was very good but he is going to struggle against Trump. His best hope is for Trump’s voters if the Donald begins a decline.

Kasich: He’s clearly aiming for the liberal, moderate wing of the GOP. Getting them is good but it rarely helps you a whole lot unless you can grab the “Somewhat Conservative” branch (40-60% of the party). Just ask Huntsmann.


Predictions

Again, this is not about hitting home runs unless you are near the bottom. These elimination rounds are about staying in the race. It won’t start narrowing a lot until January-February 2016, when the first primaries hit, thought there will be some early drop-outs and hanger-ons like Bachmann and Perry in 2011-2012.

Huckabee will be the one grabbing up the Religious Right vote in the southeast, like he in 2008 and Santorum in 2012. Rubio will start dropping when the primaries hit and he doesn’t win any states.

Bush will stay in simply because he’s Jeb Bush. Rubio, Christie, and Walker did well enough to stay in at least until the next debate, maybe until early-2016 when they actually begin facing the voters. Only Ben Carson will drop out completely.

I think Rand Paul will stay in as the Ron Paul of this race. Like father, like son.

As for Trump? I think Trump will stay in for a few more months but begin declining, he has a box of 25%, the reason for his cheers, but given the loud boos he got for saying he might run as an independent, I don’t see him reaching out beyond it. But if he doesn’t really begin sinking before then, it will start in early-2016 when the primaries hit and people actually starting thinking about who the Republican Party will run in 2016.

Claire Berlinski pointed out in France that in polls Le Pen’s National Front will do moderately well until the last few weeks and months before the election because, “France likes to pretend it will do something really dramatic, like vote for Le Pen, but as soon as it scares itself with the thought that this could actually happen, this time–as opposed to the last forty times–it remembers that it has a perfectly serviceable conservative party.”

I see something similar with Trump happening. As soon as people start walking into the ballot box and realizing that Donald Trump could be the Republican candidate of 2016 they start voting differently. I highly doubt he will win any states in the late-winter and early spring. The only question that remains is will he run a third party election if he feels he has been treated “unfairly.”

For the 5pm debate, I think Fiorina won that one. She showed why she is so well-liked and getting in a good jab at Donald Trump. She might replace Ben Carson if he drops, as I think he will after tonight.

That is it. We'll have a clearer picture next week when the professional polls hit, instead of the online, self-selecting polls, which are subject to problems.

Any thoughts?