I have no idea if Trump will pull this election out or not. There are a lot of indications that he might. But there are just as many which suggest that he won't. That's not my point though. For my point, let us assume that the Democratic attacks are working. I think it's hard to claim they aren't. If Clinton wasn't a cross between Al Capone and a Sloth, the Democrats would be solidly ahead and not even looking back. How have they done this? Basically, they've:
1. Angered women at Trump;So here's my question: if all this information was out there about Trump before, why couldn't someone like Rubio or Kasich or Cruz do this to Trump before? Indeed, their inability to crush him with this stuff before support solidified speaks volumes.
2. Angered blacks at Trump;
3. Triggered the cowardice/surrender circuit in conservatives; and
4. Used their power to warp the culture to create a groupthink/herd mentality that demonizes Trump... someone the herd liked before.
So why couldn't they? There are a couple reasons that come to mind and I suspect it was a combination of each:
1. They never thought to do it;Number one is the very problem which created Trump. The GOP does not know how to fight. They don't have the instinct. They are still fighting by Marquess of Queensbury Rules in a Yo Mama Age. That's known as bringing a sternly worded letter to a gun fight. It is this inability/distaste for actually taking the gloves off and really fighting the enemy which has frustrated so many people that they turned to Trump because he seems to fight. This problem more than any other let Trump win the nomination.
2. They didn't have very good opposition research;
3. They didn't know what to do with what they had; and
4. They lacked an echo chamber outside of a tiny circle of conservative bloggers to help them.
Number two is the consultant problem. Over and over, the GOP hires the same "experts." These people apparently can't even be bothered to run an internet search. They have no idea how to put out feelers, how to float trial balloons or how to gauge the public. This is nothing new either. Did you know that the strongest attacks on Obama all came from the Clintons? They were just adopted by the right. The GOP needs to replace, en mass its advertising and media people. There are many professional organizations who do this sort of thing consistently for companies and organizations. Use them. Using them might have helped cut Trump off at the knees and could do a better job defending him now.
Number three is a problem of personnel. The Democrats love lawyers. Lawyers excel at politics. Trial lawyers in particular learn to argue anything on the fly. They can spin anything in any direction without needing to stop and think about it. They know when to change topics. And they never make idiotic statements that are easy to lampoon. The GOP likes doctors, who are trained to give advice sternly, businessmen, who learn to do corporate jumble speak to put you to sleep, and preacher types who speak only in hyperbole to true believers. None of these people understands spin, nor do they even seem to realize that the Democrats will spin the things they see. This is why so many GOP type suffer from foot in mouth disease and why they never sound particularly convincing. People who get that politics isn't about frank discussions but is about selling ideas and images could have captured the public's imagination long before they turned to Trump.
Finally, number four is the result of the conservative disdain for anything media -- the press, Hollywood, publishing, etc. That disdain allows the Democrats to amplify their attacks and forces the GOP to argue uphill. It also takes away a huge consequence-free test chamber to try out attacks. The idea that Trump is on cocaine, for example, was spearheaded by Hollywood.
Like I said, whether or not Trump wins isn't the issue to me. The issue to me is that the GOP couldn't have done to Trump what the Democrats are doing and that is the real problem here.
Thoughts?
Thoughts on the debate?
28 comments:
I've put this up early in case people want to talk about the debate.
This was Trumps best debate showing of the three in my opinion. Moving on to your discussion above, Trump spoke to America. None of the other candidates did with the possible exception of Carson. They threw out talking points and were "weak" and in many cases, "silly". Trump's strength didn't come from the mainstream, it came from the disenfranchised of which the Tea Party was only a fragment. He pulled from the Democrat union workers, and from people who hadn't voted before. His primary performance was legendary. Because he tapped into the frustration that so many on the right felt.
Sanders did the same thing on the left that Trump did on the right but he was up against a system that was "seriously rigged" against him. The Democrats seem to "settle for any prog" but we'll see whether or not they turn out to vote.
OT: Also, the latest edition of Monsterpiece Theater is available on the film site. LINK I know it's only a minor distraction from the election mayhem, but it's a few minutes' break at least.
Side-news: The Iraqi Army and a motley crew of various tribal militias and peshmerga fighters are beginning the campaign to retake Mosul from the Islamic State with assistance from the US.
If they succeed it will be the biggest defeat ISIS has faced since they grabbed up large chunks of Syria and Iraq in 2014.
Turkish President Erdogan restated Turkey’s intention to create a 5,000 sq. kilometers (1,930 sq. miles) safe zone in northern Syria. He cited claims from the Ottoman Empire that Mosul, Syrian Kurdistan and Iraqi Kurdistan are Turkish territories, as justifying Turkish participation in the liberation of Mosul. I haven't heard the Obama Admin talk about that, but it's a first class goat rope in the making for the US.
Erdogan is trying (hoping?) to see if he can reboot the Ottoman Empire.
I can't believe it's come to this, but I'm actually yearning for the Republican Party as portrayed in the Simpsons. At least Chairman C.M. Burns would play for the win by releasing the hounds.
LL, I'm still ruminating over Trump's performance.
One of my grade school teachers, near the end of the school year, offered a counterpoint to the adage about first impressions. She told the class, "A last impression is a lasting impression." For many voters, this will be their last impression of Trump before election day.
I can't help but note the shifting standards the media places on Trump. For months, they've declared that the break-out candidate needs to "tone down." Last night was the lowest-key Trump on record, so naturally the morning headlines say he failed to break-out.
Of course, much is being made of how dangerous is it for Trump to suggest the electoral system is rigged. Meanwhile, Hillary openly states that the Russians are rigging the US electoral system.
In case you haven't heard, the "Rooskies" are having a show of force by bringing 10 warships to the English Channel. Of course, this is after countless "fly-overs" in/around Scandinavian countries since that "reset button".
Just checking, are we supposed to blame GWB for this or just jump right to Trump? I am not sure anymore.
LL, Speaking to America is key. If there is one thing the GOP really needs, it's people who understand the public. The GOP seems to be run by sheltered kids who view American culture with horror and terror. That makes it impossible for them to reach people.
tryanmax, Excellent point and if conservatives had entered the ranks of journalism like liberals, conservative journalists at places like NBC would have asked Clinton that very question.
Bev, It's Trump's fault don't you know? Obama's genius foreign policy which looks a lot like the failures he accused Bush of but in whole new countries would have worked except for Trump somethingsomething.
P.S. Bev, I keep waiting for one of those Russian rust buckets to sink... or hit something.
Kit and LL, His neighbors are batshit crazy. I doubt he wants to bring them into the country. Seize some territory, sure, but not the people.
Rustbelt, I'm enjoying the series very much. Lots of interesting information!
Also, Rustbelt, I would take Monty Burns over some ineffective named Rinse Pre-Bus.
So looking around, I see this from Democrats... in order of behavior:
1. Trump is candidate... mock him.
2. Trump wins nomination... high fives all around, act like they've won.
3. Clinton can't pull ahead... demonize Trump.
4. Demonization doesn't work... go insane demonization.
5. Pre-debate... groupthink hate at Trump, wish him into the cornfield.
6. Post debate... curl up in corner and cry that Trump is a meanie who will destroy the world.
Weirdos.
Rustbelt - I am enjoying your series too!
Depressing, but accurate and well stated. At this point I'm just wondering what's likely to happen if the Republicans and conservatives remain impotent while the Democrats and the left keep expanding. It's a shame that nobody outside this blog actually gets it in terms of agenda and selling it.
- Daniel
Daniel (and beyond), I think you'll like this:
http://www.threedonia.com/archives/3647
Daniel, Right now there's a form of demographic parody. The GOP controls a lot of states because the Democrats have lost so many people. That stems the bleeding.
The problem is that a decade ago, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada were consistently Red. A decade before that, Colorado and Ohio and Florida were pretty Red, and Washington was always in play.
So while the GOP controls a lot, it is slowly losing states. It has also all but lost the ability to win nationally at this point.
That can all change if the GOP wakes up, but not as things are right now.
Nice article there, EP. He does a great job diagnosing the Democratic machine.
To my wife's chagrin, I have a fair amount of lefty friends (thank God near-100% of my umpire brethren lean or are hardcore right, but the day job surrounds me with Euros and their societal and governmental lunacy), and not-so-shockingly none have so far responded to either this column, or the Threedonia one I shared a little earlier. People love to project and throw stones, but really hate to look in the mirror.
Andrew,
The GOP acknowledged that in their post-2012 autopsy.
Unfortunately, a plurality of the voters nominated Donald Trump, who appealed only to working class whites. Particularly Boomers.
Why didn't they kneecap him during the primaries? None of them really believed he would ever become the nominee. I'm serious.
And by the time they decided to start going after him he already had momentum.
It is also worth noting Trump never "spoke to America." He spoke to a certain demographic that makes up about 11-15% of the electorate, while pissing off everyone else.
If you want an example of the reverse, imagine us nominating Jeb Bush and the Dems nominating... Sean Penn or Kanye West.
Another thing that has happened over the past 8 years is that every time you have a scandal in the Obama White House various conservative talking heads (and politicians who should've known better) would go on Fox News and Talk Radio and say 'This will/could bring down the Obama administration."
The truth is, silver bullets are rare in politics. The last true silver bullet that actually brought down a presidency was probably Watergate. Presidencies are brought low by a thousand cuts.
However, by building up each scandal (Fast & Furious, Benghazi) as the Silver Bullet those talking heads built up expectations that the Republicans could not hope to reach.
Andrew and Bev, glad you like it!
Or should I say...exxxxxxxcellent!!
Very well stated, Eric. I haven't gotten around to the video part yet but it's a good summary of how the Democrats work. Now if only there was any indication at all that the GOP was at least loosening its head from its ass...
- Daniel
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