Tuesday, May 15, 2018

The White Minority Myth

I saw an interesting article the other day written by a conservative who tried to dispel the idea that America will soon become a "majority-minority nation." That is, a nation where minorities are in the majority. Unfortunately, he didn't make the case very well. So let me.

The Democrats have been betting on changing demographics making them the permanent majority party. In their view, minorities will soon take over the United States and then whites will be a minority. So if they get enough support from minorities, they will have an unbeatable racial bloc. Backing this up, demographers have predicted that the United States will become a majority-minority nation in 2016 2020 2049.

The guy who wrote the article I mentioned attacked this by noting that minorities don't vote in a bloc. Hence, he concluded, the prediction of a minority-majority nation won't happen. Clearly, he missed the point.

Here's the thing. There are problems with the numbers. Here's what the nation looks like as of 2016:
73% Whites
17% Hispanics
12.6% Blacks
5.2% Asian
3.1% mixed race
0.8% American Indian

111.7% total
Do you notice that we're 11.7% above 100%? There's a reason for that which I'll discuss in a minute. For now, consider this. According to the Census, Hispanics will rise to 28% of the population by 2050 and whites will fall to 60%. Blacks will rise 2%, Asians will rise 2% and mixed race individuals will rise 2%. That's an increase of 7% to 118%.

So let's take this apart.

First, as noted, according to the Census, Hispanics will rise to 28% of the population by 2050 and whites will fall to 60%. Let's assume that's true. Did you notice that still doesn't produce a minority-majority nation? Whites will still be 10% larger than every other group combined. So much for the scare mongering.

Taking this a step further, there's something wrong with the numbers, isn't there? How can the nation have 111.7% of racial groups now and 118% in the future? The answer lies in Hispanics. See that 17% figure for Hispanics in 2016? Well, it turns out that isn't really what you think of when someone says "Hispanic." It turns out that 11.3% of the 17% self-identifies as "white" and then adds Hispanic heritage. That's people like Tony Romo and Marco Rubio and millions of others who don't even speak Spanish. What the Census Bureau is doing is counting them as "whites" AND then again as Hispanics. If we count those only as whites, because that is what they are culturally, then ethnic Hispanics really are only 5.7% of the population today. So America really looks like this:
73% Whites
12.6% Blacks
5.3% Hispanics
5.2% Asian
3.1% mixed race
0.8% American Indian

100% total
What's more, when we project to 2050 using the Census Bureau's own numbers, we find that while 28% of the population will have Hispanic heritage, they are estimating that 15.2% of those will be whites. Hence, the future looks like this according to their numbers:
70.8% Whites
14.1% Blacks
12.8% Hispanics
7.7% Asian
5.4% mixed race

110.8% total
Take this at face value for the moment and you will see that there is no change of the minority-majority nation. That idea is only about 2% closer.

Moreover, you may have noticed that we're still 10.8% above 100%. This comes from double counting minorities who are also Hispanics and mixed-race. In other words, each of the minority groups will be slightly smaller than presented.

Now there's one more bit of data to consider. To get Hispanics to rise so high, the Census Bureau estimates a higher birthrate for Hispanics. It notes the following birth rates by race:
2.1 Hispanics
1.86 Whites plus white Hispanics
1.85 Blacks
1.76 Whites (without Hispanics)
1.6 Asians
1.2 American Indians
However, the Hispanic birth rate dropped by 26% from 1990 to 2007. It dropped by 14% from 2007 to 2010. It dropped by 36% from 2010 to 2014. If it drops another 17%, it will be equal to whites. These are not numbers that suggest Hispanics will ever reach 28% of the population by any stretch, especially as the primary source of Hispanic immigrants (Mexico) is undergoing a demographic shortage with a current (steadily falling) birth rate of 1.8. In fact, it sounds like Hispanics are going to peak in the next ten years.

As an aside, Asians actually outgrew Hispanics from 2007 to 2014.

All in all the idea of the minority-majority nation sounds like a pipe dream fed by past rates that no longer apply and a misunderstanding of the term "Hispanic" which didn't grasp that the majority of Hispanics in the US are basically whites.

Finally, let's add one little political piece. The Democrats are counting on all of these minorities to form a voting bloc. This is what that other guy was taking about. But that's not going to work. Not only will minorities be only 29% of the population, but it seems that somewhere between 20% and 33% of minorities will vote conservative. The assumption that you can build a majority voting block starting from 18% to 26% of the population is a very bad strategy.


Unknown said...

Thanks for doing the math, Andrew 😂
I find it both funny and sad that the Census math doesn’t add up correctly.

BevfromNYC said...

Yeah, if we only taught the history of the Americas and Spain/Portugal/Italy/France/Great...well, white European settlers did not just land at Plymouth Rock. Explorers found new land all up and down the Atlantic/Pacific coasts/islands of Central & South Americas and onward.

I have never understood why race hawks assume that all "Hispanics" are "brown people". They are ethnically white/mixed Native. That is why they speak Spanish and Portuguese - and in the Caribbean they speak derivatives of English, Spanish, French, Dutch instead of ancient native languages of the Aztec, Mayan, and other cultures...

Also, the irrational thinking that ALL of a group will vote as a monolithic block is absurd. Same for the moment that a horrified Hillary realized that women do not vote the same. As if we actually can think for ourselves! Horrors!

AndrewPrice said...

Allena, You're welcome. I'm not sure why the Census people are so far off. I mean, I know why they are so far off, I just don't get why they let that happen. They are basically projecting long-term straight line numbers based on very short term data without considering the fact that the data has been moving in the other direction.

I'm even more confused that the Democrats bought into this. You would think they would have hired some quality statisticians before betting the farm on this.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Hillary was stunned that any woman didn't want to voter for her. And to lose the majority of white women must have shocked her.

You're right about the "brown" thinking. Both sides, left and right, assume that "Hispanic" means what is basically native-Indian ancestry -- brown skin, black hair, Asiatic features. It never dawns on them that a huge chunk of Hispanics are actually ethnically European. And it really never dawns on them that a huge chunk live as normal whites with only a passing knowledge of their heritage.

They also vastly underestimate the way American assimilates people. By the third generation, most immigrants are thoroughly Americanized.

All in all, this is one of those things meant to scare people (whites) or goad people on (radical minorities). THEY are coming and THEY are taking over!! This is just like the idea that the Russians/Japanese/Europeans/Chinese will overtake us any second, American kids rank last in the world, the Earth is changing, we're all going to starve, we're running out of oil, etc. People love to scare the public.

AndrewPrice said...

Speaking of the public, I feel sooooooo bad for Megan Markle. She seems super nice and really classy and then you see her family. They are the worst elements of this country dug out of their dens and put on the national stage. The CIA should have a division that kills people like that to keep them from embarrassing our country.

Unknown said...

Well, quality staticians tend to get in the way of wishful thinking so that’s why they aren’t popular among the Democrat elite, I would wager 😂

tryanmax said...

Forget white Hispanics. I keep seeing clickbait for "Actors you didn't know were black."

BevfromNYC said...

Poor Meghan & Harry. If they can survive this week with her family, they can survive anything. Her family is the American equivalent to Fergie's family (her children included). All PR whores. Though her Dad seemed genuinely used by others in this process. And her mother seems like a normal person.

Anthony said...

I agree with all your points. Every nation I've been to (including those in Latin America) has societies divided a multitude of ways among groups who see themselves as distinct in ways it's sometimes hard for outsiders to differentiate.

That being said, being confronted with something external can have a unifying effect on people with a tenuous connection, but I still think non white unity isn't a real thing.

AndrewPrice said...

Allena, My guess is that they did this math the wrong point. They did it at a point where the numbers looked really extreme for a couple years and that was such a strong wishful thought that it became conventional wisdom to them. The Democrats are really good at believing what they want and never re-considering their beliefs.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I've seen those. LOL! And did you know that the internet can't handle number 7?

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Her mom seems nice. The rest are horrible people. Her brother actually wrote to Harry to tell him not to marry her. Wow. What an amazing turd!

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I don't think so either. Blacks and Hispanics do not have the same interests. Even without "blacks" you have groups like recent immigrants who are very different than those who have been here. You have this light skinned v. dark skinned distinction that gets a lot of press. You have mixed race people whose interests are very different again. You have professionals v. poor.

Asians' political leanings depend on the country they come from, which Koreans and Vietnamese being more Republican than Chinese and Japanese.

Even whites are broken up more by geography than race.

The only way to keep some semblance of racial unity is through fear. And I think the ability to do that is fading in most race groups.

Thomas Anderson said...

Great analysis! This gives a whole new meaning to the old "lies, damned lies, and statistics" quote.

Anthony said...

I confess I've been wrongly predicting Americans will stop caring about the British royal family since the 90s.

BevfromNYC said...

Anthony - I have no idea why Americans care so much about the royals either. But then, I find them fun to watch. There is so much history and tradition with no real power.

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Thomas! I thought it was worth pointing out. America isn't going to change that fast... if ever.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, A leftist might say that we've been brainwashed by racist corporate America to worship a class-based, capitalist society and the trappings of wealth to keep us enslaved to the lizard people... but that sounds kind of stupid to me.

I think people just like a good spectacle. And in that regard, it's not just Americans. Everyone enjoys a good British shindig when they put one on. Yee haw.

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