Good morning, everyone. Today is one of those days where we prove what for a bad idea it can be to let stupid people vote themselves goodies from other people. Ah democracy.
It's impossible to tell how things are going to go. I did an informal project with my daughter last night and ended up predicting that Trump wins with 283 votes when we went state by state, but there are a lot of 'ifs' in there.
I keep seeing strange signs... articles written by angry Hispanics that so many Hispanics are being fooled by Trump, a shocked article that Muslim support for Trump has rise from 4% to 16% (which would win him Michigan), articles about how stupid Vietnamese people are backing Trump, and LOTS of blowback at black male rappers who are supporting Trump. It's entirely possible this all adds up to something, that this is a real glimpse of what is going on.
But then there are the polls which really seriously point in the other direction. Arg.
Trump is winning a dozen "this sheep's bladder always picks the winner" type things. Biden is winning a different dozen. Trump won some baked goods thing in Pennsylvania overwhelmingly.
Supposedly, Trump's "working class" white male support fell significantly, but when I look at his rallies in the rustbelt, that's who I see in massive numbers at his rallies. I'm not sure who is attending Biden rallies.
I'll be very interested in Oregon. The BLM idiots spent last night burning and rioting and throwing molotov cocktails. If that doesn't swing Oregon, then those people are f*ckedup. Of course, we already know they are... wiccas (read: fat women running naked in the woods), communal living, Portland smells like piss. Oregon is like a hippie urinal.
As an aside, I'm amazed at how flat out dishonest leftists are to their readers. I see stories at Yahoo and Huffpo and they are quite obviously lies packed with hyperbole. It's propaganda that would have made the Nazis blush. And yet, they don't seem to have any shame, nor are they losing their readers. What does this tell us about the left? Nothing flattering.
Hang in there today, people!
It's impossible to tell how things are going to go. I did an informal project with my daughter last night and ended up predicting that Trump wins with 283 votes when we went state by state, but there are a lot of 'ifs' in there.
I keep seeing strange signs... articles written by angry Hispanics that so many Hispanics are being fooled by Trump, a shocked article that Muslim support for Trump has rise from 4% to 16% (which would win him Michigan), articles about how stupid Vietnamese people are backing Trump, and LOTS of blowback at black male rappers who are supporting Trump. It's entirely possible this all adds up to something, that this is a real glimpse of what is going on.
But then there are the polls which really seriously point in the other direction. Arg.
Trump is winning a dozen "this sheep's bladder always picks the winner" type things. Biden is winning a different dozen. Trump won some baked goods thing in Pennsylvania overwhelmingly.
Supposedly, Trump's "working class" white male support fell significantly, but when I look at his rallies in the rustbelt, that's who I see in massive numbers at his rallies. I'm not sure who is attending Biden rallies.
I'll be very interested in Oregon. The BLM idiots spent last night burning and rioting and throwing molotov cocktails. If that doesn't swing Oregon, then those people are f*ckedup. Of course, we already know they are... wiccas (read: fat women running naked in the woods), communal living, Portland smells like piss. Oregon is like a hippie urinal.
As an aside, I'm amazed at how flat out dishonest leftists are to their readers. I see stories at Yahoo and Huffpo and they are quite obviously lies packed with hyperbole. It's propaganda that would have made the Nazis blush. And yet, they don't seem to have any shame, nor are they losing their readers. What does this tell us about the left? Nothing flattering.
Hang in there today, people!
36 comments:
Best of luck. My gut tells me polls are wrong, but there is nothing scientific about that. In 2016, I did not watch, expecting to see this fat, nasty pig of an unindicted felon Hillary Rodham (Mrs. Billy Bub Clinton) measuring the drapes and penning legislation to remove Teddy and put her on Mt. Rushmore. I was shocked and surprised and kept playing the video of female analysts wiping away tiers. While I cannot rely on it happening again, maybe it will. I tell myself how can people vote for no borders, no wall, no USA at all?
Voter turnout is very low in our predominately Democratic precincts...interesting.
My gut tells me Trump wins, although, that is merely my gut. Probably there’s a part of me that still feels the country cannot vote for a party that has the tag line “no borders, no walls, no U.S.A. all not to mention Medicare for the world and no beef after 2025. Yes, the dishonesty of the media is beyond the pale. History gets written by the winners.
Critch, great news unless they all voted early
The Democrats were freaking out that Miami Dade was low turnout too, at least for early voting. I don't know about today.
Overall, turnout looks way up. That throws things off. One positive, turnout is up among young voters, which excited the Democrats, but high turnout all around offsets their hopes.
They are estimating 83% turnout locally... in a very Republican area.
Good God in Heaven...I can't take it anymore!
This election cycle has driven me batty. I'm trying to monk it out as best I can. Today, I worked at home (yeah, covid-19), and kept the TV on a marathon of Britain's Most Evil Killers. That did what I wanted it to.
Then I voted. Small crowd here. But like Critch's precincts, this is supposed to be Dem territory.
Now, switching gears to putting away Halloween decorations while the Internet serenades me with episodes of 'Iron Chef,' MST3K/Rifftrx Xmas specials, and Old School Wrestling reviews.
Hopefully, it will help me stave off the madness for a little while longer.
I have been doing a Connery Bond Marathon. God’s will be done
Your family's prediction lines up with some other things I've seen, Andrew, and interestingly it seems like a lot of elementary school votes have been Trump blowouts for one more in the random indicators column. Still, the thought that, despite all other indicators, the polls might not be wrong after all combined with the Dems not even hiding the fact that they're going to resort to every dirty trick they have and then some in order to win (see: the messes in NC and PA, with PA's Attorney General saying Trump will never win there) has me nervous. Those articles are telling, though, and enthusiasm and optimism among Trump supporters is still high from what I can see. On Biden's "rallies" the attendance is...not much of anyone, even with Obama or Bon Jovi present, though they say it's because they believe in science and don't want to catch COVID (never mind that it suddenly stopped being a problem during the summer riots). Biden campaign staff also started saying they had ways to win without Florida and Pennsylvania around noon as well, curiously enough, and the Philly malfeasance is being documented. I'm sure it'll be memory holed once Twitter and Facebook decide it violates community standards, though.
Still, unfortunately, I have to stick by my prediction that Trump wins the election and GOP holds the Senate on Election Day but Biden ultimately wins it, flips the Senate, and expands the Dem lead on subsequent mail-in ballot recounts. Now to make myself call it an early night so I'm not dragging worse tomorrow... As awkward as it feels for me to type these things, all we can do now is pray that God continues to look after fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.
CNN has Biden far outperforming Hillary in county after county which means he will win easily. But they just admitted there's a catch. Most of that is early votes, which heavily favored Democrats. Basically, Biden's good number come from pre-counting Democrats.
So nothing CNN is estimating is right.
Good call, Jed. There's nothing we can do. What will happen will happen.
Ohio and North Carolina are flipping.
Confidence rising!
We've been watching watching those and Trump caught up. Now we watch Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Looks like Biden got firmly routed in Florida, too, for one more bit of good news! I wouldn't count on NC with the promised shenanigans and that slim a lead, though. Also sorry that Gardner lost, Andrew, but Jones lost in Alabama, too, so the GOP is even for the moment at least in the Senate. That said, we also had an oh-so-convenient pipe burst where mail-in ballots for Fulton County (Atlanta) were being stored. No damage but they want to wait to certify the election for a few days after that so they can pull more ballots out of their a - I mean, make sure everything is clean and ready, of course! That said I doubt Governor Kemp is going to go along with any shenanigans but you never know what dirty tricks might get pulled. Sorry to keep going back to that, it just worries me. Anyway, about to call it a night for sure, especially since the cats are glaring at me, especially the youngest two who don't think they've gotten enough snuggles...
Biden needs Arizona plus 2 of 3 from Penn, MI, WI.
So far, looks like only Arizona is flipping so far.
Fox News projects Trump: Yes!
for FL
I put on a movie to escape the madness just coming out now. FWIW, if WB/DC turned the scripts they use for animated movies and turned them into live-action theatrical releases, they’d mop the floor with Disney/Marvel. Oh, well.
Just tuning back into election mayhem now. As of 10pm CST, the map looks plain weird. Safe to say pollsters really botched it. No matter who wins, it ain’t gonna be on a map anyone drew ahead of time.
Virginia is holding for Trump. They think that Fairfax has only counted 28%, but the AP says 100%. This is strange.
Ended up coming back after all. Curious indeed... Even the most optimistic Trump scenarios had VA remaining solid Dem so seeing it not only in play, but possibly a Trump pickup, is something else. AZ looking bad for Trump wasn't something you saw a lot of, though, so that's worrisome. For other indicators I've seen, one vary curious one is that China's currency, the Yuan, just tanked. Makes you wonder what's up with that.
Trump lead (81k) and growing in Wisconsin
Trump lead (274k) and steady in Michigan (but no early ballots counted)
Trump has 436k lead in Penn, but one million outstanding early votes. But even at 60% Biden, that only gives 200k
11:30 EST
If only my heart would stop punching my rib cage like a boxing bag, I might be able to relax.
Rock climbing, deep hurting, rock climbing, deep hurting, rock climbing, deep hurting, rock climbing, deep hurting...
You’re forgetting about the lost-in-the-trunk-of-a-car ballots.
Lost in the trunk of a car mail in ballots to be more specific, tryanmax, which has been my worry since mail-in got emphasized. NC and PA's governments threw the door open for their use so I'm not counting on those two staying red without a fight - or even with one.
PA has all but declared they intend to “find” ballots until Biden wins.
NC, too, for that matter, and Trump's lead there is pretty slim. That said, on AZ according to some locals they haven't even started with today's ballots so it might be too early to draw conclusions yet. Still, if he does lose AZ and PA and NC both go blue through blatant fraud we're in for some grim times.
Penn Trump +525,000
Wis Trump +105,000
Mich Trump +288,000
Michigan is stalled. Penn has 1+ million early votes and some Demo counties coming. But the lead is growing in each.
Arizona looks lost.
For whatever it's worth Arizona's governor just said today's votes were are not fully recorded and they've barely had time to start counting early votes yet. It may very well still go to Biden but the people calling it already must have fouled up bad if the governor himself corrected them. In terms of GA races our House delegation is unchanged from 2018, Senator Perdue (R) beat Ossoff (D) without any issues, and the Senate special election ended in a runoff on January 5th between Loeffler (R) and Warnock (D). However this election ends I suspect Loeffler's going to have more motivated voters, either to back Trump up if he wins or put one more roadblock in Biden's way if he wind. We still have Fulton County using the water pipe issue to delay counting, though, so look for some mail-in ballots to suddenly appear in trunks unless our Republican Governor and Secretary of State put a stop to that foolishness.
Penn Trump +664,000
Wisc Trump +120,000
Mich Trump +301,000
I think Trump wins Penn and Wis, but will lose Michigan. Am currently worried about Georgia actually.
We'll have to see what our SoS and Governor do but all these halted counts stink like crazy. Figure now's a good time to ask, Andrew: how do you think the public will react to situations like these? Will they find it suspicious enough to object or not find it worth making a fuss over for various reasons? That's one thing keeping me up tonight.
If PA can come through, it'll be a double good time for me: Trump winning and a total F/U to Governor/Fuhrer Tom Wolf.
But as tryanmax noted, the Dems here are ready to sacrifice a goat or the very foundations of modern civilization if necessary.
Can't sleep. Can't bring myself to watch the news. Gonna be drinking coffee like a Fenchman guzzling wine tomorrow morning.
'Frenchman,' I mean. Can't spell either, now.
As of right now, this is all a little rough, but here's what Biden needs to do to win the "in dispute" states:
North Carolina (Trump +76,712), Biden must get rest of votes at 61.2% rate
Wisconsin (Trump +127,270), Biden must get rest of votes at 61.2% rate
Michigan (Trump +307,689), Biden must get rest of votes at 57% rate
Pennsylvania (Trump +681,220), Biden must get rest of votes at 63.4% rate
Georgia (Trump +287,195), Biden must get rest of votes at 69.4% rate
Michigan is a problem.
I dunno if I can take any more tonight.
And Wisconsin is down to just a 30,000 or so vote lead for Trump and I'm sure more's coming. If I had to guess, we're probably boned there, and probably the rest of them too once all these mail-ins that break overwhelmingly for Biden start magically showing up.
I woke up to see WI in the other column. Means all the other swings need to go to Trump for him to win.
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