'Twenty years ago if you told people this was going to be the case, they wouldn't have believed you,' said William Frey, demographer at the leftwing Brookings Institution. 'The country is changing dramatically.'
That's a lie. No one would have doubted it. To the contrary, that's been the left's strategy since the late 1980s. It won't happen either. Why? There's something wrong in the numbers. Let's discuss.
The left has been playing the minority strategy for some time. They believed that one day soon, American demographics would shift so that whites, while still the majority group, would be less than 50% of the population - what they call a minority-majority state. And the left believed that if they could band together all the browns, then they could take over from the whites. To their glee, it was predicted that by 2020, America would reach the point where browns would outnumber whites, then they would take over! Mwooo hoo ha ha! Only, it didn't happen. Huh. //scratches head So they moved the date back. It will happen in2025, 2030, 2035, 2041!!!
But will it happen? No.
What they didn't realize is that Hispanics stop having babies in the numbers they do as peasants in Guatalashithole when they move here. Even Mexico has gone this route now and is far below replacement level (I told you about this when the blog started). So every census, they keep moving back the takeover date... and they'll move it again because it will never happen. Let's look at the numbers.
According the news reports on the Census report, blacks "stayed steady" at 12.5% of the population. Good for them, but it's not true. Hispanics are now "almost 20%," ok, we'll see. Asians are around 6%. Pacific Islanders are 1.5% and whites "could dip below 60%."
Really?
Blacks first. "Blacks" stayed steady at 12.5%, right? Not quite. 8% of blacks are actually mixed with Asians or whites. 5% of blacks are Hispanic blacks. This means that 13% of blacks are mixed, and mixed is not the same as Black. I'll talk about that another day, but just accept that blacks are shrinking. While the claim is they are holding steady, they are actually down 13%. For now, let's not worry about this, but it will matter. Trust me on this.
Whites. If you do the math above, you get around 60% whites, which makes the media giddy. But when you look at the number of people reporting as "white," it's actually 73%. The reason for this is that Hispanics, except for black-Hispanics, are actually white people. So is it fair to count them as whites?
Well, that depends on what generation they are. 77% of Hispanics are third generation Hispanics. This means that their parents were born in the US and they were born in the US. That's actually higher than non-Hispanic whites. A full 95% of this group speaks English, not Spanish. They give their kids Anglo names, not Hispanic names. And marketing groups are frustrated by their inability to reach them. They describe them as people who are proud of their Hispanic heritage but identify as Americans and are proud of being Americans. They feel that marketers do not understand them because they want to be reached as Americans, not Hispanics. Said differently, they don't identify as Hispanics and that makes it hard for marketers to reach them.
Moreover, the big headline you will hear pounded at you is how whites shrank for the first time. Oh my. But the reason for that is that during Covid, Millenians stopped building families. They will take up again in a year or so and we will face a white baby boom, which will offset these last couple years.
Anyways, back to Hispanics. Considering the third generation issue is important. Hispanics are listed as "around 20%" though they are really only 18.5%. That means that 14.2% points of the 18.5% "Hispanic population" are actually third generation, or whites with Hispanic heritage who identify as whites. Add those to whites and you suddenly get the following:
Even worse for the Democrats, Asians are more white than whites and are slowing becoming full Republicans (they will take over the California Republican Party actually). Hispanics become the same as white as they become third generation, which means they become Republicans. There are signs that black males are starting to break from the Democrats because of their shift to white women as their power base. And then there's the mixed race danger I will talk about later. The end result is the total collapse of the demographic strategy.
This is why the Democrats went into such a panic after the last election, because they realized that (1) minorities will not take over as the majority as the Democrats assumed when they looked at immigrant birth rates and assumed that was normal for Hispanics, and (2) everyone except blacks proved to be more Republican than expected.
Talk radio will blast you with: white people are about to be outnumbered by the brown hoards!!! Cower in fear and buy my newsletter! But it's not true.
Thoughts?
That's a lie. No one would have doubted it. To the contrary, that's been the left's strategy since the late 1980s. It won't happen either. Why? There's something wrong in the numbers. Let's discuss.
The left has been playing the minority strategy for some time. They believed that one day soon, American demographics would shift so that whites, while still the majority group, would be less than 50% of the population - what they call a minority-majority state. And the left believed that if they could band together all the browns, then they could take over from the whites. To their glee, it was predicted that by 2020, America would reach the point where browns would outnumber whites, then they would take over! Mwooo hoo ha ha! Only, it didn't happen. Huh. //scratches head So they moved the date back. It will happen in
But will it happen? No.
What they didn't realize is that Hispanics stop having babies in the numbers they do as peasants in Guatalashithole when they move here. Even Mexico has gone this route now and is far below replacement level (I told you about this when the blog started). So every census, they keep moving back the takeover date... and they'll move it again because it will never happen. Let's look at the numbers.
According the news reports on the Census report, blacks "stayed steady" at 12.5% of the population. Good for them, but it's not true. Hispanics are now "almost 20%," ok, we'll see. Asians are around 6%. Pacific Islanders are 1.5% and whites "could dip below 60%."
Really?
Blacks first. "Blacks" stayed steady at 12.5%, right? Not quite. 8% of blacks are actually mixed with Asians or whites. 5% of blacks are Hispanic blacks. This means that 13% of blacks are mixed, and mixed is not the same as Black. I'll talk about that another day, but just accept that blacks are shrinking. While the claim is they are holding steady, they are actually down 13%. For now, let's not worry about this, but it will matter. Trust me on this.
Whites. If you do the math above, you get around 60% whites, which makes the media giddy. But when you look at the number of people reporting as "white," it's actually 73%. The reason for this is that Hispanics, except for black-Hispanics, are actually white people. So is it fair to count them as whites?
Well, that depends on what generation they are. 77% of Hispanics are third generation Hispanics. This means that their parents were born in the US and they were born in the US. That's actually higher than non-Hispanic whites. A full 95% of this group speaks English, not Spanish. They give their kids Anglo names, not Hispanic names. And marketing groups are frustrated by their inability to reach them. They describe them as people who are proud of their Hispanic heritage but identify as Americans and are proud of being Americans. They feel that marketers do not understand them because they want to be reached as Americans, not Hispanics. Said differently, they don't identify as Hispanics and that makes it hard for marketers to reach them.
Moreover, the big headline you will hear pounded at you is how whites shrank for the first time. Oh my. But the reason for that is that during Covid, Millenians stopped building families. They will take up again in a year or so and we will face a white baby boom, which will offset these last couple years.
Anyways, back to Hispanics. Considering the third generation issue is important. Hispanics are listed as "around 20%" though they are really only 18.5%. That means that 14.2% points of the 18.5% "Hispanic population" are actually third generation, or whites with Hispanic heritage who identify as whites. Add those to whites and you suddenly get the following:
So, whites are actually 75.9%. Blacks are 10.9%. Asians are 5.8%. Hispanic-Hispanics are 4.3%. What's more, as Hispanics live here, they become more white until they blur into the white population. I honestly don't think whites will ever fall below 70% based on this. (Why does it seem there are so many? They cluster in Texas and California.)61.7% Whites
14.2% White with Hispanic Heritage
4.3% Hispanics
10.9% Blacks
1.6% Mixed Race Blacks
5.8% Asians
1.5% Pacific Islanders
Even worse for the Democrats, Asians are more white than whites and are slowing becoming full Republicans (they will take over the California Republican Party actually). Hispanics become the same as white as they become third generation, which means they become Republicans. There are signs that black males are starting to break from the Democrats because of their shift to white women as their power base. And then there's the mixed race danger I will talk about later. The end result is the total collapse of the demographic strategy.
This is why the Democrats went into such a panic after the last election, because they realized that (1) minorities will not take over as the majority as the Democrats assumed when they looked at immigrant birth rates and assumed that was normal for Hispanics, and (2) everyone except blacks proved to be more Republican than expected.
Talk radio will blast you with: white people are about to be outnumbered by the brown hoards!!! Cower in fear and buy my newsletter! But it's not true.
Thoughts?
19 comments:
As an aside, when I first wrote about this in 2010, the estimate was that there would be 67 million Hispanics by 2020. The number according to this census is 60.6 million, or 10% less than expected. That's a huge screw up over a ten year period, and tells us the Census theory is garbage.
The opening paragraph is a good jumping off point to teach people about the Celebration Parallax. Or rather, to give them a name for something they've almost certainly observed. Parallax is the apparent difference in position of the same object seen from different vantage points. You've probably toyed with parallax yourself by winking one eye, then the other to make a nearby object "move" in relation to the background.
The Celebration Paralax, as coined by writer and essayist Michael Anton may be stated as: "The same fact pattern is either true and glorious or false and scurrilous depending on who states it." Put differently, the legitimacy one has to state identical facts in identical language depends on who one is and what one thinks of it.
Nowhere does the Parallax come in to play more than the topic of demographics. If you are a Democrat, you can call to consciously shift the demographic makeup of the United States and celebrate the "browing of America." If you are a Republican, however, any suggestion that immigration policy amounts to a "great replacement" constitutes a racist conspiracy theory that is not only false, but dangerous.
And, because it's fun, I should also mention Anton's Law of Salutary Contradiction. The basic formulation is "That's not happening and it's good that it is."
Is the Biden administration inviting in illegal immigrants and resettling them in the heartland? Absolutely not … and these future Nobel Prize winners deserve their shot at the American Dream!
My grandparents were all immigrants from around WWI, the very early 20th century. My father's side was from Sweden, and my mother's were from Eastern Europe: Hungary and Slovakia. I actually grew up in an Eastern European immigrant neighborhood in the city I grew up in. Hearing different languages spoken, ethnic food stores and the like was part of my youth.
The Eastern European side of my family was definitely look down upon at the time as not being Anglo Saxon or even, strictly speaking, white European. The pejorative 'honky' is likely derived from Hungarian .In fact, a good chunk of of my father's family disowned him when he married a Hungarian girl.
That said, my brothers and I, being third generation considered ourselves to be American, with no need for a hyphen added to our nationality. That worked because American is a concept, not an ethnicity. The biggest threat of the current elite fixation on race is that it erodes that concept.
The irony is that our race-obsessed better are transnationalists. Hence the open boarders and what-not. You would think they would elevate the concept over that nationality, but of course they don't, nor do they see the contradiction in their thoughts.
ambisinistral, The idea of fixating people on race is definitely intentional. The left struggles because American culture fundamentally isn't friendly to their ideas. So their plan has been to change that by created a separate culture from brown people that is hostile to American culture. To do that, they try to separate people by race and make them fear other groups.
This has worked really well with American blacks (but not immigrant), who are bombarded with the idea that they are surrounded by hostiles and everything in America is made to keep them down and out. It hasn't worked with the other groups though.
What gives it the illusion of potentially working is that immigrants often huddle together and remain culturally separate -- ethnic communities, limited language etc. So it seems like they are parallel to blacks. But the reality is that over time, their kids and grandkids become more and more American until they blur into the population.
The Democrats believe this is because of the idea of the melting pot and they are working hard sabotage it, but the reality is that it's part of human nature to try to fit in.
tryanmax, What I find interesting is how blatantly the left lies to its own and itself. They've been celebrating this for years. To claim that no one would have believed the suggestion 20 years ago is blatantly false.
Then, of course, you get into issue like how racist it is yet they claim it's anti-racist, how they aren't really doing it but it's all part of their plan, and their math is terrible -- it misses huge chunks of logic, like the fact that Hispanics are clustered and their votes are diluted (hence the "national public vote" fix).
Nicely done with some good information, Andrew. That actually does put something concrete to observations that the Democrats are acting out of desperation. They really have put all their eggs in the race basket and now that it's not working out this does explain why they're milking the beer virus for power grabs and trying crap like HR 1. Shame that their crap has been so effective on blacks, but if the men are slowly drifting away from them that's another good sign. I've also noted the same thing among people who know (or in one case is married to) African immigrants, that they can't believe the attitudes American blacks have. This also explains why they seem so worried about Texas and Florida, especially in light of the Democrats' attitude towards the events in Cuba, which I know have unsettled some Hispanics. Of course if anyone's likely to blow this momentum and hand everything right back to the left/Dems it's the right/GOP but it's something.
Additionally, I forgot where I found it, but there was an article by a conservative or libertarian still in California noting just how hardened they've become and how fierce they are when it comes to fighting the left's nonsense. Combine that with an Asian takeover of the CA GOP and people might start to rally out there. I don't know if they'll get results in the near future (and I'm absolutely expecting Newsom to survive the recall handily, even if he has to use underhanded means to do it) but there's definitely potential there. Things just need to avoid going Mad Max, French or Russian Revolution, or a similar collapse first and the right's got to stop being so self-destructive...which is still one Hell of a tall order.
That is really good info and analysis Andrew. I always assumed the Dems strategy was to bring in poor people, whatever race, looking for a better life and willing to tolerate big powerful government to get goodies, be it govt assistance, free socialized medicine etc. I suppose that does not mean the two strategies are not inter-related, of course. While good news about Asians and Hispanics, I still fear the millennials have been brainwashed at school, and by news media, Hollywood, etc. to buy into socialism and big powerful government. If we cannot fend off cheat by mail, it will be hard to get any power back
Daniel, It's going to take a while for "blacks" to break away, if they do. Black women are pretty hard core leftists, but seem to really HATE white women, who have little interest in sharing power with anyone. Black men are far less political, but I see more and more black male conservatives, so something is coming... just not sure how it will ultimately go yet. I suspect (1) steady growth in male black conservative ranks, (2) a splinter black party mainly built around angry black women, and (3) older blacks remaining Democrats.
The fact this fantasy is falling apart is why the Democrats have been pushing BLM so hard. They need to (1) revise the power of racism-crying among white liberals (see e.g. Minnesota), and (2) scare black men back into the fold. BLM is the best vehicle they've had for that in a long time. I see it as kind of last desperate powergrab attempt.
On California, the GOP disintegrated because of those "hardened" people. They ruined it. What I am seeing now is ethnic Korean and some Chinese moving into the party - they have learned the left hates them and is out to undermine them. Whether they can live with the hardened people or not, I do not know. But they are remaking it as a "common man" party based on immigrant/American dream values.
I'll talk about both blacks and Asians soon.
Jed, Thanks! A couple thoughts.
The Democratic party has become the party of poverty and wealth. It has no has any constituency that we would consider working class or middle class, except teachers unions. Their focus has been (1) angry single women, (2) angry minority racists, (3) Millennials, and (4) billionaires.
On the Millennials, there are two problems the Democrats have with them (I'll discuss both soon as well). First, no matter how whipped up they get, young people just don't turn out. Secondly, as young people grow older, they move to the right. That's never failed and it's happening again. It's the natural consequence of events -- protecting kids, shared perspective of spouses, unfairness of taxes, maturity because of increased responsibility. Even the boomers moved further and further right, and there are signs the Millennials are doing it too.
And the Democrats know this, which is why they open stopped caring about discharging student loan debt.
Interestingly, the Millennials are moving too now. They are headed to fly-over country cities like Denver, which is laying a groundwork for a rightward shift in about 10 years.
Millennials? Gen-Xers need to stop excluding themselves from the problems. Obama was the first Gen-X President and we can thank Gen-Xers for voting in that nincompoop and a lot of the messes he caused -- number one on the list being Obama care.
It is getting beyond silly that Gen-Xers refuse to accept the fact that all age cohorts have good and bad in them. Also, all go through the stages of life: childhood, teen years, young adulthood, middle age and geezerdom. Really Gen-Xers, stop with the generational nonsense, it serves no sane purpose.
ambisinistral, The idea of defining generations began with the Boomers, and there are definitely traits inherent in each generation.
The Boomers were incredibly narcissistic. The X-ers have been absent and nihilistic. The Millennials are actually two groups in my experience. The early Millennials were like little Boomers -- very self-centered, but without the killer instinct of Boomers. They are the kids who weren't allowed to keep score at soccer, and they grew up kind of neutered. Even now, when you meet them, they are indecisive and afraid to offend. The second set of Millennials are toxic. They weaponized their pathetic-ness and drive cancel culture. They are the product of hard-left grooming, but the left lost control of them. People like Obama, Bill Maher and France's Marcon has turned on them. They have been waging a war with Boomers under the "OK Boomer" meme.
That said, historically, as people age, they get more conservative because liberal ideas stop making sense to pay as they take on certain responsibilities and burdens.
As an aside, Obama is actually a Boomer. Boomers were born 1946-1964. Obama was born 1961. He also has all the Boomer traits.
It took a bit to find the article and it turns out I misremembered a lot of it. It agreed with the way the Dems are structured these days (wealthy elites and their poor pets) but the focus was more on facing the left with confidence, pointing out the absurdity of their ideas, and building things away from their influence. Feasible and marketable to the public? Admittedly unlikely and where that goes it sounds like a Chinese and Korean immigrant-led party with a common man focus is just what the CA needs. Well, what the GOP everywhere needs now that the Dems have made themselves entirely the party of the rich and crapulent elite and largely poor victim classes. Will they do it, though? I'm expecting to be disappointed with the GOP like always in that regard.
Daniel,
In all honesty, I don't know what the party will ultimately look like politically when all is said and done, but my guess is that you will be looking at a California GOP that is mostly Asian (Korean, some Chinese, Vietnamese and some Indian). They will reflect "Tiger mom" values -- hard work, thrifty spending, savings. They will likely be strongly opposed to crazy leftist ideas, affirmative action, and black preference. Beyond that, I don't know if they will care about anything ideological (abortion, environment, guns, etc.).
What I am seeing is that they have realized that the left hates them and opposes everything in which they believe. Many have strong immigrant roots and saw the same crap the left is doing here now in the countries they fled and they hate the idea it is coming here. They don't like having the Dems use affirmative action to keep their kids out of California colleges and the Ivys. They don't like the values BLM is pushing (something for nothing, you owe me, and I can't be blamed) or that blacks are getting a pass for all the crime they commit against Asians. All of this has pushed them away from the left, and with there being no functional Republican party in California, they've decided to claim its corpse and control their own destiny through it.
Ultimately, I think this is good. It will destroy the "Republicans are racist" argument, it will undermine the disingenuous argument that race-consciousness is good in minorities but evil in whites, and it will cut into the Democrat's ability to win the House dramatically. Beyond that remains to be seen.
I hadn't considered the part where they're essentially stepping into a void so there should be no issue there, and that also gets to one thing that I found to be mind-bogglingly stupid about the left/Dems' "stop Asian hate" disingenuous garbage, they're trying to sell victimization to a group that actively despises it while favoring the group that actually engages in most of said hate. On the ideological stuff, no clue how they'll break on environmental issues but on cultural ones I can't see them getting on board with the Religious Right's issues (at least not to a huge extent) but I can see them favoring guns due to safety issues, especially in light of the mostly peaceful protests (see the old memes about Rooftop Koreans and newer ones about Storefront Sikhs, all of whom protect their property with guns). Agreed on them not wanting to see the US go the way of their homelands, too, which is also why the Dems don't seem to favor Cubans and Venezuelans on the Hispanic front. All said, I agree it's promising, especially if the national GOP and various state ones take the right lessons and don't mess up. Sadly, that's what they're best at doing.
Daniel,
I find the whole "stop Asian hate" thing utterly ridiculous. I will write about that -- have lots of things to write about that I'm finally getting to.
I know a lot of Koreans who are very fundamentalist as Christians, but as a group, I think religion will not be a point of concern for California Asians. I think the driving point will be discrimination against Asians and their kids and fear of the nasty stuff from their homelands coming here.
As an aside, I think the gun issue is just lip service on the left at this point. Women like guns because they are the great equalizer. As BLM showed, blacks are hoarding guns out of paranoia. Those are the two dominant groups making up the Democrats. If they want guns, they aren't going to let them be banned.
In fact, BLM is now claiming that gun enhancements in sentencing (adding years for use of a gun) are racist and target blacks and need to be repealed. How funny is that?
BTW, California has a way of disappointing, but I am seeing lots of motion toward this future. I guess we'll see. Even a 10 seat swing in the state would forever put the House of reach, even with Georgia going soft.
As an interesting aside, the MSM is now running with the idea that "the number of black Americans grew by about 6% since 2010."
True? Nope.
Here are the Census numbers:
...............2010 .......... 2019 ...... difference
Black ......... 38.9 mil ...... 34.4 mil ... -12%
Mixed black ... 42 mil ........ 35.3 mil ... -16%
So black-blacks actually fell 12%. All blacks fell 16%. They didn't increase by 6%.
This fits with my 13% estimate above.
Why lie about clear numbers? Because blacks would probably be shocked to hear that they are being slowly bred out of existence in the US, and they would turn on Hispanics. That would get ugly for the Democrats.
Here's the quote everyone is using on whites: "The white population fell from 223.6 million in 2010 to 204.3 million in 2020, a decrease of 8.6%."
Terrible. 20 million dead whites...
Is it true? Hardly.
According to Census data:
................ 2000...... 2010 ......2020
Pure white.. 194mil... 196 mil... 192mil
Change ....... 0 ....... +1% ...... -2%
White plus.. 216mil... 231 mil... 236mil
Change ....... 0 ........ +7% ...... +2.2%
What does this mean? First, they are comparing different numbers, whites alone versus all whites, to scream about the 20 million loss. That's a statistical lie. The actual loss is either 4 million white-whites or a gain of 5 million all-whites.
Suddenly, all the headlines about the racial change of American look like scaremongering, don't they?
The numbers suggest that "whites" (when you include everyone claiming on their own to be white) keep going up steadily. By comparison, blacks fell 13%. And while Hispanics rose, we talked about those above -- most are white and the rest slowly become whites.
Asians are the outlier, nearly doubling from 10.5 million to 18.9 million in 20 years. However, they are largely whiter than white.
So the whole story is essentially false.
While I'm at it, you keep hearing how the majority of children are nonwhites, which suggests that once all the Boomers are dead, the next generation must flip with browns becoming the majority, right?
Wrong.
Here are the current numbers:
White kids...... 50% (only white-whites)
Hispanic kids... 25% (mixed and reporting Hispanic)
Black kids... 15%
Asian kids... 5.4%
other kids... 7.4%
So even the future is 50% white white, i.e. minorities are not the majority as is being reported. What's more, the number reporting as "white" despite being mixed is 77%. That's a greater percentage of kids reporting being white than the current population. Whoops. That's terrible news for the demographics is destiny crowd. Basically, kids see themselves as more white than the current world. That's hardly a more diverse America.
Hispanics take up 25%, but as the "reporting as white" suggest, they largely view themselves as white
These numbers do suggest a slight resurgence for blacks.
Ultimately, the story that the next generation of kids is not white and therefore we will become not-white as a country is not true. If anything, the US will become more white over time according to these numbers. It's just the number of white-only whites that will decrease.
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