Tuesday, December 11, 2012

The Census Reads Commentarama (Finally)

Remember how Hispanics were going to overwhelm the US and turn us into the Unidos Estados? Remember how I told you that wasn’t going to happen? Perhaps, you recall this brilliant article ==> LINK or this one ==> LINK. Well, other people like the Census and Pew are finally starting to figure this out.

Here’s the deal. Liberals have long believed that Hispanics would become the majority racial/ethnic group in the country. This idea is based on the following faulty reasoning:
1) If you take the number of Hispanics today and compare that to 1980, you get a growth rate.

2) If you project that growth rate into the future, then Hispanics eventually become the majority.
BUT, that “reasoning” is nonsense. For one thing, the growth rate is not constant and won’t rise forever. Like every other rate in the known universe, it rises until it spikes and then it falls. Liberals are wrongly assuming this number will keep growing forever. But guess what? It’s already spiked in the 1990s and it’s been falling ever since.

Moreover, the growth rate consists of two groups – locals and recent immigrants. The locals actually have a birth rate at or below the white birth rate. Yet, the Census people have been applying the whole growth rate to every Hispanic as if the ones here for a while keep having massive numbers of kids. They aren’t. What is happening is that the growth rate is entirely because of illegal immigration. Factor that out and you’re looking at no change. And here’s the thing about immigration: it’s coming to an end. Hispanic immigration is drying up because Mexico is running out of people.

Basically, this theory depends on Mexico sending another 15 million people in the next two decades and then another 18 million after that and then another 20 million after that. But those people don’t exist. Mexico’s birthrate is far below ours and they are running out of young people. Without those young people coming our way, the Hispanic population in the US population will stagnate at around 14%.

So what makes me discuss this again?

Well, the Census is starting to agree with me. First, their new numbers show that the number of illegals dropped to 11.1 million from 12 million. That’s a significant drop. Moreover, the number of new immigrants has dropped significantly. In fact, last year was the first year since 1910 when new Asian immigrants outnumbered new Hispanic immigrants. That’s right, more Asians came to the US last year than Hispanics. And the Census now expects the number of Hispanic immigrants to remain low because, get this, Mexico has run out of young people to send our way. Gee, where have you heard that before?

Anyway, because of this, the Census has gone from predicting that Hispanics will become the largest racial group in 2023 to moving that back to 2042 officially to now saying privately it will be much later than that. . . if ever. Yeah, no duh.

This matters for several reasons. First, it is clear that Asians will likely grow from their 3% of the population to something a good deal larger. This is something we must consider now. According to Pew, Asians are not particularly loyal to either party at this point and their primary concerns are: jobs, education and healthcare. They do prefer government solutions, but that can be faked with the right rhetoric. We need to get in on the ground floor of the Asian boom that will soon be hitting.

Secondly, maybe we can stop talking about building a wall. With more illegal immigrants coming from China than Mexico, it should be obvious that a wall will not solve this problem.

Finally, before talk radio gets a hold of this and tells you to ignore Hispanics and just focus on being hateful, let me point out that this does not mean Republicans can pretend their Hispanic problem doesn’t exist. Like it or not, Hispanics will probably top out somewhere above where they are today, maybe in the 12-16% range. And if we keep losing them by 70%, then we will never win another election. The good news, however, is that this reinforces the fact that Republicans only need to win more Hispanics, not a majority, as would have been the case if they became 50%+ of the population. Fortunately, what appeals to them tends to appeal to other ethnic groups as well.

Thoughts?

29 comments:

Ed said...

Andrew, I just read Michael Barone talk about this! You are ahead of the curve once again! Awesome.

http://commentaramapolitics.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-census-reads-commentarama-finally.html

K said...

All we need is a Republican Presidential candidate who speaks fluent spanish and can explain his policies directly to the hispanic media.

Like Rick Perry, for example.

Anthony said...

Makes sense. Migration from Mexico went negative years ago (something I chalk up mostly to the poor state of the American economy which not only caused people to not come here, but caused people unable to find work to leave) and birth rates in industrialized/industrializing countries tend to fall (more opportunities for women means more women having fewer or no children).

Also, during times of economic pessimism, national birthrates tend to fall (Russia is exhibit A, Japan exhibit B).

Last but not least, its worth noting that according to Pew, Asian immigration has outpaced Hispanic immigration for the past few years (something I pointed out in T-Rav's article about hispanics).

http://commentaramapolitics.blogspot.com/2012/11/hispanics-and-gop.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/us/asians-surpass-hispanics-as-biggest-immigrant-wave.html

Anthony said...

I suspect the Republican Party will have as much trouble wooing Asians as Hispanics because a lot of the fire that has been aimed at Hispanics has also hit Asians.

When someone complains about non-whites flooding the country seeking work (or for that matter, claiming they merely want gifts)
and needing to be booted out, more likely than not they are thinking of Hispanics, but Asians also fall into that category and also are also going to take offense.

Its also worth bearing in mind that Asians are less Christian than Hispanics (and whites and blacks) so appeals to Christianity and/or gratuitous shots at non-Christians (seemingly every Muslim public official has had their patriotism called into question by the fringe) probably aren't going to play well.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that the Republican party can't appeal to Asians (if they can't appeal to people who came here looking for better lives and who have been phenomenally successful in that attempt the party has no business in politics) but that care is needed. If economic success alone made a group Republican, Jews would be the most Republican group out there.

Anyway, here's a direct link to the Pew Study on Asians.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/06/19/the-rise-of-asian-americans/

Tennessee Jed said...

In my corporate days, we had very intelligent people writing white papers on what the business environment would look like over the next 3, 5, 10 years or beyond. They were always well written and utilized premises that seemed quite logical at the time. As it turned out, they were as wrong as often as they were right in their predictions, a track record that would not make Nostradamus proud.

The problem, I think, it that there are usually events that happen that were unforeseen, and that help shape the future. For example, who knows how long the pipeline of good high-paying union government jobs will continue during the reign of Obama? And if that spigot is turned off?? The Austrian School of economics was criticized for failing to adhere to standardized modeling techniques, but that was exactly their point. The human condition is too complex and fluid tom accurately model.

On a lighter note, It does seem likely we will see a rise in Asian populace. The new owners have a heck of lot of people who need some leg room given the overcrowding they face back in the mother country. Plus, they will want to keep an eye on their investment. They may initially start out in San Francisco, via an agreement, to keep the settlers from "going native." Gradually, some hearty souls will spread to the mid-west and east. This phenomenon will be known as going "beyond the pale."

T-Rav said...

Gee, I don't know. They also do the straight-line projection for global warming and so far that's proved pretty accurate...oh.

Seriously, though, the information about Mexico is interesting. My question is, what about the rest of Latin America? Many of the immigrants from south of the border, needless to say, come from Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and other countries (and as I've said before, Mexico needs to explain its own border-control policies with these immigrants before attacking us for ours). Any similar data there?

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Ed, I do my best to stay ahead of the curve. :)

Here's the link: LINK

AndrewPrice said...

K, I think we need a different approach. I think we need to start giving the appearance of genuine diversity -- just like Democrats who are run by white males make it look like they aren't. I think we need a bunch of minority faces to appear at all press conferences. I think we need to start running a lot of Hispanic candidates in Hispanic districts... ditto on Asians. We need to stop scaring these people too.

But the big thing is that we need a genuine platform they would want.

And again, the key thing is that we don't need 100% of even 51%, we just need maybe 40% of them. That's what this census figure tells us.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I think those are all valid reasons for the fall and to believe it won't be going back up. But the biggest thing, frankly, is the fact they're out of people. Mexico is the biggest shipper of people and they are out of people to send. Not to mention, they are becoming a middle class country which means they are generally stable economically and there is no reason for people to flee -- the same is true with much of South/Central America.

So Hispanic immigration did peak in the 1990s and it's fallen ever since and I expect it will keep falling. And with the Hispanic birthrate even below the white birth rate in the US, I think they've almost peaked in terms of population percentage.

The next big wave is apparently Asians, but I'm not sure how long that will run either because Asia is becoming more prosperous across the board and because they don't have the same way to ship millions of people here at once.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, On the one hand, I think the Pew study is rather biased. Their conclusions and their wording strike me as far left. They also make the mistake of lumping "Asians" into one category when I know for a fact there are massive political differences between Asians from different countries.

That said, I agree with you. Quite frankly, conservatives have been spewing a ton of hate for about a decade now at anyone who isn't white and Christian and that has hurt them with all these groups. That needs to stop if we ever want to get any of these people. I firmly believe that. And that means no more whining about English only, no more whining about building walls or about foreigners coming here and destroying America. And you are totally right about the anti-anybody-but-Christians thing. That's a serious problem.

However, even bigger, the Republicans need to finally generate a platform that people want. Simply being "not the Democrats" won't do it.

Here's your link: LINK

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, This is one of those that has always struck me a simply wrong. You just can't project a straight line trend in anything that involves humans or nature. The universe doesn't work that way. And in this case, for this idea to work, Mexicans would have needed to be incredibly unique. For one thing, they would have needed to maintain a super high birthrate which no other people on the planet have maintained. They also would need to maintain it once they got to the US. None of that made sense.

Ultimately, the thing people need to keep in mind is that the US has gone through this several times. Each time we've been hit by a wave of people from anywhere, people look at the peak and go "OMG, they are going to take over." It never happens. It won't happen now.

On Asians, I actually suspect that their boom will ultimately be a bust. They seem to have some of the lowest birthrates in the world already, Asia is becoming more prosperous, it's hard to get there from here, etc. My guess is that ultimately, they top out around 5-6%.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, This data is for Hispanics in the US and doesn't break them down by place of origin. But the trends are the same everywhere -- birthrates are crashing throughout South/Central America, just as they are crashing around the world. Mexico's is incredibly low right now as are several other countries down there -- way below ours.

By and large, these countries are also becoming more stable and more middle class. And we are not the magnet we were anymore -- but countries like Brazil and Mexico are becoming magnets.

I honestly think this wave is over and won't start again. And since the native Hispanic birthrate is really low, I would be surprised if they ever got above 16% and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they stalled out where they are now.

DUQ said...

Interesting stuff. I think conservatives should be very happy about this because the way things were headed, conservatism was finished with conservatives having angered so many Hispanics and with their numbers increasing so much. This though, tells me that conservatives have time to turn the ship around and give these people are reason to become conservatives. Let's hope they do it.

DUQ said...

Also, I see the Michigan stuff is getting really nasty now. I hope they stick to their guns and make Michigan a right to work state.

AndrewPrice said...

DUQ, This is a good thing in many ways. It means the cultural change people feared won't happen. It means also means conservatives have a chance to fix the mess they created because they aren't being faced with immediately being overwhelmed by hostile voters. But it doesn't change the fact that conservatives need to make changes if they want their ideology to survive in the country.

K said...

Andrew:we just need maybe 40% of them.

Uh-HEM:
LINK

AndrewPrice said...

K, No, that's a good point. Bush Jr. had a lot of Hispanic support too. But the party as a whole has lost Hispanics left and right and gets virtually no support among them in places like California, Colorado, and Arizona, and our support among them is fading in Florida despite there being so many Cubans.

It would behoove the party to really take a look at Perry and W and see what they are doing differently and then duplicate it on a national level.

Unfortunately for many conservatives, the answer is that these guys support amnesty and they support the DREAM Act and they oppose English only laws and they don't whine about immigrants getting benefits. But those are the kinds of things conservatives will need to learn to accept if they want to win elections in the future.

AndrewPrice said...

K, I didn't Perry because he's a political crony who would have been W the Sequel, but on Hispanics, he was right and I should have realized that at the time.

DUQ said...

K and Andrew, I was not a Perry fan and I admit it angered me when he said that about us not having a heart, but in hindsight, I think he was right. Hopefully, conservatives will look at Texas to see how they are handling the Hispanic issue.

AndrewPrice said...

DUQ, I'm not super-familiar with Texas, but from what I hear, it sounds like the Texas GOP is doing a good job of bringing Hispanics on board. If so, we should absolutely see how they do it and try to adopt similar approaches in other states.

Ed said...

I don't know about Texas, but I can tell you that it's not working in Nevada -- with Asians or Hispanics. The GOP needs to do something or this state is going to turn blue.

Ed said...

Speaking of Red and Blue, did anyone see that people think Santa is a Democrat? Makes sense... his economics function purely on magic, he's highly judgmental, and he runs a sweatshop while pretending he's a good guy. Sounds like a typical liberal to me.

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, Nevada is disappointing. The Republicans seem to do well in state election, but not national ones.

I suspect Santa is "idle rich" so of course he's a Democrat.

tryanmax said...

And we wonder why the same people can't understand that lowering taxes can increase revenues. For a party who's slogan was recently "Change" they certainly have a poor grasp of it.

AndrewPrice said...

I've been debating writing an article about some recent economic arguments the left has been making, but I fear it would put people to sleep.

What I find amazing is the idea that pumping money into the economy results in a 5 times boost, but taking money out of the economy has no negative effect. There is zero consistency there.

Individualist said...

The problem with Border Security with Mexico will not go away with decreased illegal immigration from Mexico because the Border Security problem has nothing to do with immigration from Mexico, legal or illegal.

The problem is the Drug Cartels. Brewer's law in Arizona was not meant to round up every illegal and deport them. It was meant to depart criminals. I am certain that that law is the wrong approach to the issue but the fact is that at the time Brewer's only approach was this law because the Federal Government is doing nothing about it. Heck they were selling them guns at the time.

Obama and the Dems turned the issue into an immigration issue and the GOP establishment's failure was to define the issue correctly. Border security became about illegal immigration and the Cartels were marginalized in the Presidential debate.

This is puzzling because when Brewer implemented this law and the initial justification to Arizona voters was to do something about Arizonians, White and Hispanic being killed by Drug Cartel and MS13 gangs that made the Cosa Nostra of the 1920's look like choir boys.

In the end perhaps there should have been another approach than Brewer's law. A law that gave more power to incarcerate and go after Cartels. To use military grade vehicles deployed at places the drugs are shipped to be able to respond to para military gangs. Obama would still have opposed this but I think it might have been harder to spin the activities to all Hispanics if the law stated it was focused on known Cartel operatives and Gang members such as the Mexican MAfia and MS13.

Who knows... it's crying over spilled milk know.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, The problem was this wasn't presented as such. It was presented as "we're going to find all those illegals the federal government won't." But in any event, border security won't be a problem once people stop connecting it to attempts to stop illegal immigration and deport everyone. At that point, the issue gets depoliticized and rational minds can prevail.

And don't forget, conservatives are obsessively focused on this idea of a wall, but the vast majority of illegals got here by overstaying visas. Conservatives have politicized this and liberals just played up their stupidity.

Individualist said...

Andrew

I agree with respect to the wall. building it would be stupid and I don't know why we engaged that nonsense. I owever thing that until the Arizona law those things were ignored as nonsense.

With the Arizona law it became real that something was going to be done. I still think a law targeting people with gang affiliations and Cartel background specifically would be better.

i.e. the law would state upon stopping someone who appeared to be a member of a gang or organized criminal enterprize the status of immigration would be checked and deportation would be expedited otherwise the incident would be just logged. Would be very hard for the libs to attack that I think but I am sure they'd try to spin even that.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, I agree that criminal status is important and stopping gangs and cartels is a big deal and should be a big deal. I think the problem in Arizona was grandstanding. Too many politicians jumped on this with the idea that Arizona was about to start deporting illegals and played that up.

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