-- Barack Obama
Apparently, you can't. Two points on healthcare today. First, let’s look at how Obamacare is robbing people of their insurance despite Obama’s pledge above. Then, let’s talk about an interesting poll about the shutdown.
● Obamacare: Obamacare is causing millions of people to lose their insurance. Consider these points:
(1) For whatever reason, people keep missing the fact that 6 million people have already lost their insurance because of Obamacare. When he started in 2010, 43 million people had no insurance, now it’s 49 million... and that’s despite more kids being added to parents’ policies, so the numbers are actually higher.● Non-Support for Shutdown: On the shutdown front, as Tea Party groups start running ads attacking Republicans as “chickens” (seriously... welcome to grade school) for not shutting down the government, the Republicans have commissioned a poll to find out how much support a shutdown actually has. The results are pretty interesting:
(2) People with individual plans started losing those plans early because Obamacare imposes new requirements which prevent most individual plans, which typically have high deductibles, from counting as Obamacare compliant.
(3) Then small employers started dumping their plans. Surprise, it’s cheaper to pay a couple hundred dollar fine than $10k a year to cover an employee, and with the Exchanges as an alternative, there was no moral reason to keep offering insurance either. This also turned out to be a good way to break the unions.
(4) Employers everywhere soon started making people part-timers because then they don’t need to offer insurance and they don’t get fined. The BoL monthly jobs reports have shown this trend as full-time jobs keep vanishing as part-time jobs appear. Similarly, reports of employers switching to part-time hours have been coming from unions, universities, school systems, big firms like WalMart and dozens more. Not only does this mean less insurance, it will make it harder for poor people to earn a living... and then Obama fines them.
(4) Now they are dumping spouses from company policies. Obamacare requires employers to cover children of employees if they offer coverage, but it doesn’t say anything about spouses. The assumption was that employers wouldn’t do anything so dastardly. Well, they are. To save costs and to hopefully get employees to switch to other policies, employers are dropping spouses like the plague. UPS just announced that 15,000 spouses would be dumped. Delta has made similar noises, as have other large companies. Smaller companies have been doing this for a while now.
Other large companies are imposing a surcharge on spouses, which is also allowed. Right now, 14% of employers with more than 5,000 employees impose such a surcharge. Last year, the number was 4%.
Thank you, Obama! You’ve done a wonderful thing. Who are you going to hurt for your next trick?
● Self-identified “conservative Republicans” make up only 19% of the public. That’s consistent with what I’ve seen. I will add that they are also concentrated in the Southern states, though the poll doesn’t say that.What this tells us is as with immigration, the Republican base is much closer to the views of the public than they are the views of the talk radio base, even as the talk radio base claims to speak for the majority of Republicans. And in this case, both the base and the public overwhelming reject the idea of forcing a shutdown. That actually makes sense too. Right now, millions of people are learning the cost of liberalism as Obamacare ruins their insurance. Conservatives need to refrain from making conservatism less attractive than what they are experiencing from liberalism. Let Obamacare work its horrors and then step in with an alternate plan to replace it. Remember, you can’t save people until they know they need to be saved.
● Even among those self-identified “conservative Republicans,” only 9% self-identify as “very conservative” with the other 10% self-identifying as “somewhat conservative.” So forget any idea that talk radio is speaking for “the silent majority” or even the majority of Republicans. The talk radio base is about 9% of the public.
● Within self-identified “very conservative” ranks, 63% favor a shut down to try to defund Obamacare. However, these numbers flip for everyone else. Indeed, within “somewhat conservative” ranks, 62% oppose a shutdown. And when you look at the party as a whole, you find that only 37% favor a shutdown.
● Overall, only 23% of the public (which includes conservatives) favors a shutdown.
31 comments:
My concern is that nobody will step up with an alternative. Great post, though!
Thanks Jed. That worries me too. The Republicans seem to think "let insurance companies compete across state lines" are magic words and that is all they keep repeating, even though that's been soundly rejected by votes at this point. They need to come up with something that will give the public an alternative, even if it's just a non-specific promise of improvement.
Hopefully, they'll read my book. ;P
Andrew.....My understanding is that UPS dropped only spouses that were covered under their own employers plans. I'm assuming they are keeping those spouses who are not covered under any other plan. True or spin?
Patriot - True. UPS is only dropping spouses who can be covered by their employers' plans.
Andrew - Obama has let himself of the hook on the whole "I promise if you like your present plan you can keep" thing. It has now been officially retroactively changed to "If you like your present plan you MAY be able to keep it...if you are one of my major donors like a union for instance and ask nicely {{wink, wink}} or work for the Federal government."
Okay I added that last part, but Obama's "promise" has changed from "can" to "may".
Patriot, Bev, regardless, it's a headache nobody wants to deal with. Who wants a different insurance card for every member of the household? And does anybody know if UPS is offering these folks an employee-children plan? Or are they forcing them on a family plan that doesn't cover the whole family?
Either way, UPS knows that people prefer to keep their family all on the same policy. The move isn't intended to drive off only non-employee spouses. It's intended to drive off employees, as well.
Bev, TMax......I think the UPS move is just the first action they will be taking to keep healthcare costs down. Interestingly, they are a Teamsters company too.
We'll probably see different plans for management (less) and then we'll see attrition in their ranks. More "part-time" drivers and handlers.
Basically, what is happening in just about every American industry as O'Care comes to be. We'll just wait for Obama to exempt the unions from O'Care and then everyone else in this country, his "enemies" will end up bearing the brunt of the costs.
I think I'm becoming of the mind to just let it hit the country in drips and drabs and constantly let the American people know how corrupt and illegal this program is.
Patriot, that's pretty much already happening, if you remember from a couple weeks ago that everyone in Congress has now been exempted from the requirements. Letting the burden fall on his political opponents is just a matter of time.
I have to agree, as far as Obama and his administration are concerned, the writing is on the wall that he is all to happy to make his political opponents pay for the benefits of his political allies. That's hardly a conspiracy theory. The flip-side, of course, is that most of this has been done by executive order and can be just as easily undone.
If people want to hammer at Obama's heavily slanted politics, this is a great place to hammer rather than murky ties to "Islam" or his mysterious Alinsky tactics.
Obamacare is a disaster economically but I'm not sure how it will play out politically. The system was in bad shape before Obama came into office and Republicans don't seem to have any ideas beyond restoring the system to its 2008 form.
Patriot, True, but I don't think it really matters. The public isn't stupid and they know that Obamacare=dropped policies.
Actually, I'd say this comes across as even more cynical to the public because this is an attempt to get the employees to dump their healthcare too. This is something Republicans should be exploiting... the link between Obama and Big Business screwing their employees. I think the public would be very receptive to that, especially if they start talking about how Obamacare is just a massive forced subsidy for insurance carriers.
Unfortunately, that goes against the Republican "plan" to let insurers solve everything.
Bev, Read my lips... very clear sentences that get repeated often and are meant as a selling point can't be retracted. People remember what he promised.
P.S. "Yes we may!" "Yes we may!" :P
tryanmax, That's the point. This is meant to be such a headache that people switch to the spouse's policy. The financial sites have been talking about this for a long time. They need to cover kids if they cover the employee, but they don't need to cover spouses. So by dropping spouses, they create a situation where the employee and the spouse are forced onto different plans with different requirements and different doctors, etc. At that point, the family presumably will switch to the other company where they can all be on the same plan.
Patriot, He can't exempt unions. This will hit them too. And you have to let this thing hit before you try a radical fix. For one thing, it's impossible to stop. For another, trying to stop it will only make conservatives look bad.
What we need to do is to highlight the problems and propose our own fix for the whole thing... and dismiss any talk of trying to fix this disaster.
T-Rav, Obama can't exempt anyone. That's not how law works. What happened with Congress is not an exemption. It was something entirely different, which can't be repeated.
tryanmax, This is something the public cares about, not the flaky Muslim stuff or the birther crap. Unfortunately, this stuff actually requires a brain to understand and to discuss. It's easier talk about ammo shortages and secret Muslims.
On the Executive Orders, he absolutely has been doing his best to reward his friends, but he's made almost no progress, despite what some people say. The government doesn't work that way. His real progress has been in Obamacare, which blew up on him, in financial reform, which rewarded his monied friends, and the stimulus package which rewarded unions. Everything else has been undone or never happened.
Anthony, Republicans don't seem to have any ideas beyond restoring the system to its 2008 form.
That is the problem. If you offer nothing, then the other guy becomes the only game in town. And the Republicans are offering nothing. All they are offering is "uh, let's let Big Insurance... something something." That's a nonstarter, yet they repeat it like dogma.
This is why I keep saying we need to rethink the whole platform and start paying attention to people rather than abstract theory.
BTW, For those keeping score at home, Balmer is finished at Microsoft. He's stepping down.
Since you and I already fixed health care, I'm going to stay away from that today.
I'm more interested in the politics issue. The republicans leaders are not stupid people. I am certain they have seen the same polling data. I wonder if some of the problem they are in has to do with where the money comes from; more specifically the money for re-election campaigns. Often the fringe groups give far more money than the silent middle. So to continue to get the necessary money to keep running they need to keep these people happy. Initially, it was the Tea Party people that stepped in and filled this void but I fear the movement has been corrupted by these fringe groups.
I would love to see a republican to introduce an alternative to Obamacare such as a voucher or Medicare for all. Honestly, it would be accepted by a large majority of people and it would entertaining to watch Pelosi, Reid, and Obama squirm. To accept it, they would have to admit the ACA was a bust. But to not accept it would go against what they claim to believe. Of course this poor republican would be torched by his own.
Koshcat, We have indeed fixed healthcare and I would love to see a Republican introduce the Commentarama Plan. I think the nation would love it and we know it would work. The only people who wouldn't love it would be the ideologues. And it would be hilarious to see Obama/Pelosi/Reid argue against something that actually achieves all the goals they claim to want, like lower cost while providing universal coverage.
On the political aspect, I would say several things.
First, the polls showing the divergence of the talk radio base from everyone else (including the Republican base) are relatively new. So this issue could just be in flux at the moment and we may be looking at the beginning of a change.
That said, the leadership certainly recognizes the problem and from all accounts, they intend to go against the fringe on all these issues. They have to, or they are dooming themselves.
I think what is going on is that they are still trying to find a way to placate the fringe while doing what they need to do to win the public. The problem is that the fringe cannot be made happy. They are awash in paranoia and hate and there is nothing you can do to please people like that... just the act of trying to please them will only further enrage them.
The big fear in House Republicans right now is getting primaried, which is the only tool in the fringe toy box. Once they find an effective way to handle that, I think you'll see the Republicans stop pandering to these people.
Koshcat, BTW, I think the fringe is shrinking too. I am seeing lots of evidence of this, like the total silence from the town halls and the way the poll numbers are drifting away from them. I think they topped out around 25 million in November and are now something less than that. 25 million would make them 8% of the population.
Probably right. Still would be interesting to look at the money. Where it is coming from, etc.
I think Boehner should go to the Teamsters, etc. (not SEIU) and say "look, we may not always agree but we both can't stand Obama or Obamacare. Let's work together."
Koshcat, I agree about the Teamsters. Politics makes strange bedfellows and the more you can work with enemies, the stronger the case that can be made. Plus, it would give us the chance to peel away some union labor, even if we'll never get the leadership.
On the money, that's hard to tell because the money issue is so murky. The "big money" players are not fringe and don't support the fringe. So that money is actually trying to get the Republicans to abandon the fringe. The question is how much of the total pie comes from them. I don't have an answer for that.
That said, I suspect (no proof, just a suspicion) that the fringe doesn't actually donate to the Republicans. Their money, when given, goes to Tea Party groups or people running against the Republicans.
I think the real problem is that the fringe control talk radio and the blogs, and the Republicans know it won't help them to face 24/7 smears from those sources. But if they pay attention, that's already happening, so they should probably bite the bullet and use talk radio to triangulate to win "lost conservatives."
Andrew, How do you get the 25 million? I think that sounds right, but how do we prove that?
I am a big believer in giving the Dems what they want. Trying to stop the freight train of Obamacare will kill us and, as I have said before, sometimes people need to learn the hard way. To waste more time trying to repeal it is just stupid because it is just not going to happen.
I think that we as conservatives/Republicans et al. have pointed out repeatedly ALL of the potential problems - many of which are becoming reality with more to come. Like you said, we MUST have viable plan to fix this giant mess like CommentaramaCare waiting in the wings AND we must be able to present it coherently within the context of the 2014 midterm elections.
Terry, Several ways...
1. The number of people voting for the Anybody But Romney candidates was about 27 million. That's the maximum voting power of the talk radio base. But some portion of these people actually legitimately liked the candidates, so it's less than that.
2. Talk radio hosts collectively claim about 30 million listeners overall. BUT there is significant overlap in that group, i.e. some Levin listeners also get counted as Rush listeners or Beck listeners. Rush has always claimed 20 million (though the numbers are closer to 16 million), so figure somewhere between 20 million (or 16 million) and 30 million.
Also, keep in mind that some of those listeners listen, but don't buy the platform.
3. The poll in the article places the number of "very conservatives" at 9% of the population (27 million).
4. A half dozen polls on immigration found that 35% of Republicans oppose immigration reform (just like 37% support a shutdown here). 60 million people voted Republican in 2012. 35% of them is 19.8 million. Add the 2-3 million who sat at home and you get 23 million.
I can't give a precise number, but every time I look on any issue, the numbers come up in the mid-20 range. And with this number coming up so consistently, this makes sense to me.
Bev, I totally agree.
This -- sometimes people need to learn the hard way -- is key. We can't save people who don't want to be saved. The public wasn't horrified enough of Obamacare to toss him out in 2012, so you need to let Obamacare spread its evil and hurt the people it's going to hurt. Only then do you get a second chance to kill it.
To do something as reckless and disruptive as a shutdown with no chance of winning on an issue that the public isn't angry about yet is just stupid.
What we should be doing is highlighting the problems, pointing out all the disasters and inequities, and offering our own counter plan. That last part is key. Unfortunately, it's also the part that is least likely to be done because the conservative/Republican world is stuck on their belief that "let insurers compete across state lines" is going to sell. It won't. That sounds like "do nothing" or even worse "trust big business."
Andrew...As a clarification, who will be the main beneficiaries of O'Care as it passed? Not counting all the exemptions, etc.?
Like Romney...The Repubs will never get them in their corner on this.
Patriot, The only people who benefit from Obamacare are:
1. Insurance providers, particularly those that own hospitals.
2. The 5-7 million uninsurables.
3. A couple million people who will now get Medicaid, but didn't before... assuming they can find doctors.
That's about it. Everybody else gets screwed.
Yeah, good luck with that whole Teamsters thing. I know one or two of them, and if they were ever even approached about allying with the Republicans to take down a government program, they would lose their collective minds. To the extent they haven't already.
T-Rav, Politics makes strange bedfellows and the Teamsters are irate. Seriously, feminists and the Religious Right have worked together, environmentalists and big business... dogs and cats... why am I thinking about Bill Murray in Ghostbusters?
In any event, it wouldn't be my prime strategy, but there's no harm in pursuing it.
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