● The Optics: I’ve been really surprised that this shutdown has gone as well as it has. The Democrats are going down in flames right now. Obama’s approval ratings are tanking. There is dissention in Democratic ranks. Even the MSM is picking apart Obama’s claims. Why? Well, several reasons.
For one thing, the public hasn’t cared at all, so there is no immediate pressure on anyone to solve this issue. That benefits the Republicans who forced it and it deprives the Democrats of their entire strategy, which was to wait for the public to break the Republicans’ will.
For another, the Republican leadership has stayed on message, and it’s a good one. They keep saying, “Why won’t Obama negotiate with us?” That’s the perfect message to win Americans. Why? Because we are a rational people who believe you settle disputes rather than fight to the death. Here, the Republicans are being the adults because they are offering to talk. Obama is being the child because he is holding his breath.
Obama has helped this perception by hamfistedly trying to upset people by doing things like closing monuments that don’t need to be closed, by trying to shut down state-owned parks, by telling Wall Street that it should tank, by whining about essential people being furloughed when he is the one who decided who got furloughed, and by acting aloof and indifferent. This makes it really hard for the media to support Obama. Even worse, our fringe is silent as they don’t know how to play this, so they aren’t saving Obama with a distraction. In effect, the MSM can cover Obama or nothing... and when that happens, Obama flames out. That’s why his popularity is at an all-time low right now.
Further, the Republican leadership has played this brilliantly in the House. They have been passing bills doing things like funding cancer research, ensuring veterans get paid, and trying to open monuments Obama has shut. The Democrats have been voting against these (and Reid refuses to allow votes on them), and it’s killing them because these are the kinds of votes that will feature prominently in campaign commercials. In fact, because of this, 57 House Democrats have broken ranks on various issues.
What’s more, with the right not giving the media anything to attack, the media has little else to cover except the unfolding disaster of Obamacare... which only makes Obama’s problems seem even larger. For those who missed it, HUGE numbers of the people who signed up may not actually have coverage because they didn’t provide sufficient information. At the same time, tech analysts are now saying that the problem with the computers shutting people out is not a lack of server capacity, it’s a design flaw that the program tries to load too much information at once... meaning the system may need a redesign. Ha ha.
All of this is bad for the Democrats. But there’s something else that is going on that will force them to surrender fairly soon. Right now, the PR of both sides says they have no reason to surrender, but that’s not true. Boehner has no reason to give in: the shutdown happened... nothing important changed... no one cared... why stop now? It’s sequestration all over again.
Democratic math, however, is different. The Democrats are the party of government. When Obama was elected, they hoped he would restore the public’s faith in government. He didn’t. To the contrary, faith in government is at an all-time low. What’s more, the big non-event of sequestration taught people they had nothing to fear from budget cuts, the same thing is happening here now: the longer the shutdown goes on, the more people are learning they have nothing to fear from a closed government. This is disastrous for Democratic ideology which relies on people looking to government to regulate their lives.
Whoops.
● Foreign Policy Still Doesn’t Matter: As an aside, Navy SEALs grabbed the al Qaeda leader responsible for somethingsomething. In theory, this should have given Obama a huge boost, but no one cared. This again proves that short of all-out war, foreign policy simply doesn’t matter to the public.
● Why You Can’t Volunteer: Finally, this is worth pointing out. Whenever you have a shutdown, there are always stories of people volunteering to work for free (like a group of Catholic priests who are under contract to work on military bases) who get told they can’t volunteer during a shutdown, and people say, “That’s an outrage!” Actually, there’s a really good reason for that.
Before the Republicans depoliticized the government in the 1930s, a lot of contractors, employees and average citizens found themselves being pressured to provide favors to the government or government employees... or offering free favors for favors. Several agencies used this to add to their budgets to let them do things Congress hadn’t allowed. The law was changed to make it illegal to give something for free to the government to stop this (agencies also can’t keep money they earn because of this) – this is called an “illegal augmentation.”
So while this may sound stupid that someone can’t volunteer, there is a valid purpose behind it. This is an anti-graft provision because it’s impossible to tell who is just volunteering, who has been pressured, and who is hoping for a quid pro quo. So this is something to remember... it’s not nonsense, even if it seems like it on the surface.
57 comments:
As an aside, if you have 30 minutes to kill, here is a link to the US Citizenship test. See how you do. The test is simple and surprisingly fair. But be warned, it is long and dull. The average is apparently 87%. I got 100% (96/96).
Can you pass a citizenship test
cool beans, Andrew. It's nice to see things go better than anticipated. Oh, there is still the chance our side will do something really stupid. I ws just over at Drudge, and they said the Seal raid failed.Either way, though your point is valid about people not paying attention. I get the sense people are put off by government, and blame both sides,which, as you point out, doesn't bode well for the party of government
All our times have come
Here, but now they're gone
Seasons don't fear the shutdown
Nor do the wind, the sun or the rain
(We can be like they are)
Jed, Our side will try. The local radio guy here, who spent months calling Boehner a coward and demanding that he shut down the gobment like a reel American is now hypocritically attacking Boehner for shutting down the gobment because "you can't win in a shutdown!" Meanwhile, Cruz is trying to shift focus to the debt ceiling because he's lost the spotlight to Boehner on the CR. But for the most part, the fringe is waiting to see which way the wind blows before they take their "courageous principled stands." As long as they remain stumped, this should go well.
On the raid, there is a lot of confusion. I heard they got the guy. Then I heard they didn't. Then I heard there were two raids (Libya and Somalia) and one worked, one didn't. Either way, the public hasn't cared... not with NFL football on the tube.
Kit, "Romeo and Juliet" at the government theater was shutdown for an eternity. :-P
As an aside, I took the test, stopping after 58 questions. Makes me wish people had to pass it to be able to vote. :)
Jed, It got boring fast, that's for sure. But I agree. It's a solid, basic test that people should be required to pass before they could vote.
Democrats seem to be convinced that the shutdown is going to cost the Republican Party seats in 2014, Republicans are convinced that the shutdown is harmless or even beneficial. Both sides have polls which support their positions.
I think the Republicans are right because Obama is the one who is deciding who gets cut, but I've been wrong before. Recent history has shown that both sides are perfectly capable of seeing what they want to see. Someone is going to be surprised in 2014.
I'm kind of amazed that the mastermind of the 1998 embassy bombings had been walking around all these years. I'm not surprised the raids didn't make a difference to the American public. I doubt 1 person in 100 could name either of the targets. I hope the piece of crap we didn't manage to grab is dead.
Yeah, the "optics" have been bad for Obama. Shutting down the AmberAlert.gov site, but keeping the golf course open. Why do we have a federally funded golf courses anyway. Trying shut down privately owned historical sites like Mt. Vernon and evicting elderly retirees from the homes they own that are in Federal land. And the whole WWII vets, then Vietnam vets, etc and Mt. Rushmore. It's just stupidly thought out on his part.
And no one is sympathetic with the news stories of poor pitiful furloughed federal workers who are going to lose their homes and starve in the street without their pay checks. Except we ALL know they will get retroactive pay. There is one guy who was boo- hooping because he had planned all these renovations to his house and how was he going to pay for them now? He'd already taken out the loans. the reporter told him that he would get retro pay and his response was "But what will I do in the meantime?" Really? It's only been 4 days??
Yeah, the average citizen has tuned out knowing none of this will affect us in any way. You can kind of tell since the NYT has ramped up their Op/Ed pages on behalf of Obama...
I have have to say, sometimes the autocorrect on my IPad comes up with some funny stuff - "boo-hooping" for instance. It kind of great!
Well, this is embarrassing. I got three wrong. I went braindead on the number of amendments, US territories and I said "none of the above" for economic system because, technically, our economic system is not codified and I thought that's what they were asking.
Interestingly, the House Republicans are now pushing for restored funding to all the government employees who are out of work; which is going to put Reid in a bit of a spot. And Boehner is continuing to take the rational high ground, saying he's happy to negotiate on the debt ceiling, but "the other side has to be willing to compromise as well." I imagine this is not what Obama and friends had in mind.
On the volunteering thing, there might be a legitimate reason for it, but in my opinion, the reason isn't good enough. I'm not saying it leads to a loss of civic virtue, but it's one of those things which piles on. I'd rather risk the graft than encourage Americans to think, "Oh, the authorities will take care of it."
Anthony, I think the Democrats are more nervous than appears. The Republicans are playing this right for once and they seem to be rather shocked that things aren't going their way. I think you will see them start to break soon. They are the party of government and they can't allow people to get used to a shutdown... it's bad for their ideology.
I'm not surprised on the raid either. I agree that most people probably couldn't even identify the embassies that were attacked or where that mall is. And as history has shown again and again and again, people just don't care unless it has a direct potential to affect them.
Bev, Bingo! I agree across the board.
One of the problems with a shutdown is that it raises questions like "why do we have federally funded golf courses?" And then to make matters worse, Obama has been playing games with it.
Also, you are right about the sympathy angle. It's impossible to have sympathy for people who are getting a paid vacation and are whining about it. Try not knowing if you're going to have a job anymore.
Bev, Autocorrect can be hilarious at times. For a program that is so stunningly smart about knowing what I want to say, it's funny how wrong it can be at times.
Careful tryanmax, if you miss three more, I hear they deport you! :-P
T-Rav, Boehner has done an extremely good job of being the rational guy on this. And Reid and Obama have really played into this. With Reid reduced to actual name calling (for which he needed to apologize) and Obama looking like he really doesn't care and won't meet with the Republicans, this isn't playing well for them.
I disagree on the volunteerism. Preventing graft is hugely important to a functioning democracy and this is far too easy to abuse. It would amplify all of our problems because it breaks down rule of law and gives the government power to act outside the bounds of what Congress establishes as the law.
Be back later folks. It's V-E-T day... time for a roundup.
BTW - as to IPad autocorrect, T-Rav will be happy to know that it auto spells out his "name". I have no idea why, but shortly before it started I did notice kitty hair around my computer and I don't have a cat...hmmmm.
On volunteerism, there is nothing to prevent people from volunteering in a private capacity while they are furloughed. In the case of Catholic priests, I don't see how they can be stopped from providing council in an unofficial capacity. But then, that goes against Big Government ideology, so of course someone would raise a stink.
As an aside, furloughed workers could really garner some goodwill if they got together and used their time off to volunteer for charity en masse. But there's no fear of that actually happening.
Well with regard to the talkers the response from Mike Church I find interesting.
Mike Church is an oddball in that he is the Ron Paul coalition's Rush Limbaugh. He is Libertarian and is usually always against the GOP in its entirety calling them Decepticons.
Today in the morning he was praising Boehner for "finally doing something right" and said that now the little "r" republicans can for today claim to be Big "R" republicans. He was playing Boehner's response to the Washington Post article stating "This is not a d@#$% game" and then walking out.
form what I have heard the biggest problem we have is the Ron Paul coalition are so alienated that they stayed home and did not vote for Romney. Maybe if the GOP sticks with this that rend in the party between the Libertarian / Paulistas / Peroistas and the traditional wing will lessen.
The reason I don't say this lightly is that if you listen to Church his praising Boehner is a big deal and I think the pulse among that side must be positive.
Then again its only Monday
Indi - I cannot believe that the RNC did not give the Ron Paul Republicans a seat at the table/podium during the Convention??? You are absolutely right that they stayed home because they were marginalized! Stupid, stubid, stupid...
Amber Alert is back up.
Here is the Guardian on it: LINK
Actually there is no way to back-pay the furloughed workers… because Harry Reid has refused to pass a bill that grants them back-pay.
Kit - Again, it is all about "optics" with the Amber alert website and it looked really petty of Obama and the Feds especially as it was spun - the website is only information and all of the REAL alerts are run by city/county level. If it is only informational, why did the website have to go down at all?
Wow, and that was really stupid of Harry...
Shutting a website down is more work than just leaving it alone and letting it go out-of-date. I wonder if it's even possible for .gov domains to expire? Just another example of how much effort Obama is putting into the shutdown.
"Again, it is all about "optics" with the Amber alert website and it looked really petty of Obama and the Feds especially as it was spun - the website is only information and all of the REAL alerts are run by city/county level."
Yeah, I know.
"Wow, and that was really stupid of Harry..."
If I was a Republican I would be out there saying "The Democrats want this to hurt."
Bev, My the auto-correct on my phone has picked up several non-words that I use all the time. I'm telling you, these things are really amazing.
tryanmax, Excellent point on both parts. If they feel the spirit, they could go volunteer with civic organizations. That would certainly give them a much more positive image with the public in a pretty big way.
BUT they won't. In all honesty, it's the rare government employee I've met who doesn't have the union mentality. I can't see any of the government employees I've known volunteering their free time for anything.
As an aside, let me clarify my point above as I was rushed. Not only is there a massive potential for graft ("Gee, you could win a big contract if you volunteer to ___"), but there is the issue that volunteerism is a way around the Constitution which puts the power into the hands of the Congress to decide what the government will do. For example, if volunteering were allowed, then abortion doctors could just volunteer to work at government hospitals and Congress would be hard-pressed to stop them because they can't just cut off funding.
What you end up with is millions of czars all over the government who have the nebulous power to direct people and accept volunteer effort without technically directing them so there is no real oversight or control.
So while it does seem stupid, I really think the benefits outweigh the stupidity.
Indi, I haven't heard Church. The guys I hear locally don't tend to identify as "libertarian," they self-describe as "genuine/real conservatives/Americans." For the most part, they are dodging the issue right now after months of demanding that Boehner shut the government down because they are caught between a rock and a hard place. Nothing they've said for six months has come true: Boehner DID shut the government down, the Democrats did NOT fold, and the public did NOT rally to our side. So I suspect they are trying to figure out a way to explain this away while still finding a way to attack Boehner (which is their schtick) without losing the ability to share in any victory Boehner gets. That's a difficult bit of contortion. The result is radio silence, which is letting the Republicans remain unified.
As an aside, their staying home, which I know they did, isn't the real problem. The real problem is women and Hispanics... the numbers are overwhelming. If every one of these purists voted, Romney still would have lost. That's why change is needed.
In terms of Church, I suspect his favorable comments are related to Rand Paul being very supportive of Boehner. Paul has being quite the team player in the past month or so and I think he's trying to tone down the insanity.
Bev, That was very stupid, but I'll bet you things wouldn't change an inch if they did it again. Right now, the people in the party are more concerned about internal power than they are victory.
Kit, Reid is in a tough spot. If he agrees to pay them, then he has to explain why he won't fund cancer research. For him, it's better to do nothing now and then make sure they get their backpay once the matter is settled.
But as you say, I would be using this to beat the Democrats over the head.
Bev, I'm amazed at how stupid Obama and the Democrats are being. I have always known that Obama's administration is one of the worst at politics, but these things seem even too stupid for them.
tryanmax, True. Just like shutting down something like the Mall is more work than leaving it open, but they are trying desperately to find someway to hurt people with the shutdown to scare them. And the end result is that they look like rotten bastards.
Obama's new line is that he has already proven his willingness to negotiate with sequestration, and as such, he doesn't have to negotiate anything else.
He's also saying that he's willing to discuss anything, anywhere with Republicans. He just refuses to budge.
Here's and interesting read on the Obamacare sticker shock: LINK
My favorite quote: "Of course, I want people to have health care," Vinson said. "I just didn't realize I would be the one who was going to pay for it personally."
tryanmax, I'm hearing that people are shocked all over the country right now at what they will be expected to pay. I think most thought it would be $20 a month or something like that and they never expected it would be the equivalent of a car payment... and that's even before they have to eat the deductible.
As for proving his willingness to negotiate, that won't work. America is a "latest impression" country. You need to keep proving yourself every time you're asked.
I think even Obama's FEMA visit is bad optics b/c it just highlights how he is willing to do things piecemeal even as his party says it isn't. Plus, it's just one more instance of him not negotiating but taking a microphone instead.
I agree. It just makes him come across like he's doing photops and hanging around looking for something to do. "Bored" is not a good image to have when you're supposedly claiming there's a crisis.
Oh, the tragedy! I missed one! It was the date the constitution was written. I confused date it took effect with date written. Totally unfair. Who cares when it was written what matters is when it took effect (in my opinion).
Obama clearly overplayed this and I think the lack of pain from sequestration (which I disagree with as we are still having some pain) led to his decision to cause pain. The part that frustrated me the most is he cancels his trip with the Asian summit, one of his duties as president, to stay home because of the government shutdown-but doesn't bother to meet with anyone to reverse the shut down. Boehner would have gladly accepted a call from the president from Indonesia. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Koshcat, There is definitely pain, but not enough to upset enough of the public to inspire any sort of groundswell.
I totally agree about the Asian trip. Either go or stay here to deal with the issue. You don't cancel the trip and then sit on the White House couch in your underwear watching television.
I think the only reaons he cancelled his trip to Asia was he was afraid that he may have gone overboard with the shutdown and might not be able to get back in. As I understand everyone had to turn in their Blackberries when furloughed...how would he talke to anyone.
Okay and the image of Obama sitting in front the TV watching an endless loop of his old speeches in his terry clothe bathrobe (I imagine that it is baby blue with a giant presidential seal on the back with little presidential seal slippers to match) and whitey tighties makes me sad...;-(
Bev, I assume that by "makes me sad" you meant "makes me want to throw up."
I have no idea what you're talking about with the iPad and the cat hair. Nope, no idea at all......
Bev, LOL! True. He could be trapped outside the country after he shutdown all the ports and other ways in. Knock knock... "Go away, we're closed!"
That is a sad image... yet, it makes me laugh! :)
Bev and Andrew........The image of Obama sitting in his easy chair watching his 2007-2008 speeches, sipping a scotch, with a sniffle every now and then, reminds me of the old Gary Larson cartoon show with the old wolf watching home movies of his wife playing around a bear trap, and the next scene has the hunter peering from behind a tree. Final scene is the movie ending and the wolf sniffling once more and sipping his scotch. Hilarious!!
It's only the arrogance of Obama that has led to the bad optics of the democrats in this shutdown. He has not only a complacent media in his pocket, but a compliant one both in awe of him and afraid to offend him. This should have been a slam dunk for him to place the blame on the republicans, even if they only have a small majority of the house.
But he utterly screwed up. He is truly a terrible politician (aside from campaigning).
Spending additional money to close open air monuments was, well, monumentally stupid. Trying to close access to the oceans is about as smart as claiming that your election will slow their rise. And unveiling a non-functioning health care system as the signature achievement of your presidency is probably telling of your presidency's achievements.
When it's this easy to ridicule a president and a party with wordplay, you know they've lost. The media can't scream "Intransigence!" because it's a word that the public doesn't naturally bond with, they can't scream "Opposition!" because that's the natural American State of Being, and they can't scream "Noncompliance!" because we American's naturally oppose tyranny.
Well, here's something interesting. The National Parks Dept approved a Immigration Rally for tomorrow on the Mall that is has been closed down for...say...veterans and other citizens. This has just gone from ridiculous to really dangerous.
"Gulf states to introduce medical testing on travellers to 'detect' gay people and stop them from entering the country"
Now, if you saw this headline, what would you assume?
Bev, That sounds like more of the same with this administration. This is Chicago politics at its worst. The Republicans need to pay attention and give better than the get if they want this to stop.
As for the gay thing, you mean Mississippi? LOL! Actually, it sounds to me like the rest of the world isn't as enlightened as the evil US.
wahsatchmo, I couldn't have said it better myself. I concur with each word. Obama has imploded on this. He really is a terrible, terrible politician. And everything he's done has blown up on him. It's been sheer incompetence.
Patriot, LOL! I don't remember that one, but Larson really was fantastic... and yeah, I can see Obama in that cartoon!
Andrew.....It had an old 40's sad tune as the soundtrack...something like "What'll I Do?" Unfortunately, I don't think there is any video out there of it.
Patriot, My favorite of his involves a dachshund who is staring at an alien monster creeping in a window and the dog thinks, "I think I'll forgo my normal barking fit this time."
My suggestion: Start a tax boycott until Obama agrees to quit his banana-republic tactics.
I know, I know. But I already plan on sending a cover letter with my tax forms to the IRS next spring, saying I only pay these under duress and would appreciate it if they stop pretending they represent us.
LOL! Tell us how the audit goes.
Two words: Meat hooks.
That's been my experience.
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