● There will be a shutdown. The prevailing wisdom has been that the Republicans wouldn’t pull the trigger, but I think the GOP leadership is more afraid of their lunatic fringe than they are the public. That means they are incapable of backing out now. Since the Democrats think they will back out, we are looking at a shutdown.
● The shutdown will be a PR nightmare for the Republicans. The public will blame them for shutting down the government and hurting people without a reason.
Indeed, the biggest problem is the utter chaos behind this. First, the lunatics demanded a shutdown because that makes them happy. Then they decided they wanted a shutdown to get Obamacare defunded. Now they want a shutdown to get the individual mandate delayed a year... except the hardest core fringe actually opposes the shutdown because they want more than those damn RINOs will get. The “moderates” keep saying they don’t want a shutdown at all, yet they voted for it. Meanwhile, the fringe is screaming that the RINOs will never shutdown the government, even as they are, and many are claiming the point to the shutdown is outing RINOs. Hmm.
In the end, the only conclusion the public can reach is that the Republicans have no idea what they want except to cause problems... and they don’t care who they hurt in the process. That won’t play well, especially once you start hearing horror stories of soldiers losing homes or whatever.
● The shutdown won’t help the Republicans with their fringe either. You can’t placate a lunatic. You just can’t. And you certainly can’t placate people whose entire platform is “I will destroy the RINOs.” In fact, as expected, some of these people are already attacking the GOP leadership because they aren’t demanding enough from the shutdown. Apparently, Boehner failed to demand that Obama kill himself as part of the deal.
Even if the Republicans get something out of this, it won’t help them with the fringe because the fringe is premised on the idea that no matter what the GOP does, they could have done better if they had been more obnoxious. The GOP can’t win with those people.
● I actually suspect the Republicans will get a delay in the individual mandate. Yes, Obama will cave. Why? Because he can score major points by doing so. This is what I expect from him, if he’s smart:
(1) Call the Republicans crazy and play Cruz against Boehner to keep the right foaming at the mouth... always a turn off for voters.● Getting the one year delay in the individual mandate won’t help the Republicans with the public either because the public isn’t affected by it yet and doesn’t know how much they will hate it.
(2) Let them shut down the government. Spend the next week letting the Republicans spin as the media rips them apart. This should be worth several seats in 2014. The more the Republicans in-fight, the longer I would let the shutdown go. And they will in-fight. This is a glory moment for opportunists.
(3) “Reluctantly” agree to delay the individual mandate for one year. Why? Well, it pushes the whole thing back behind the 2014 election so it won’t hurt the Democrats and they can use their new House majority to fix Obamacare before 2015. It also gives Obama a chance to fix all the technical disasters they’ve created. And most importantly, it gives Obama a pass on any failures that occur during the first two years because he can claim “Republican interference” was the cause.
(4) Make sure that the Republicans think Cruz was the reason Obama “surrender” so the lunatic base thinks they won and will go super-nuts.
(5) Laugh his f*cking ass off.
Wow, that’s dark. How about listing some happy thoughts in the comments?
71 comments:
FYI, We are shutdown.
... and since there is no government. I hereby declare myself King! Ha! Take that suckers!
Your Majesty,
Happy thoughts... Once Upon a Time came back for a 3rd season!
If that doesn't make you happy then how about a triply bit of music called "White Rabbit" Jefferson Airplane? LINK
Feed your head!
Thank you, Subject. I hear that's a good show, but I haven't seen it.
Great song! :D
maybe Democrats should have all three houses? There is no room for anybody selling the idea that we can be fiscally responsible and help people anymore.
Yeah, the show has some... interesting couples though resulting from the massive multi-crossover.
Its only glaring flaw is in some of the costumes for the characters in Fairytale Land. There is a reason all the flashbacks in Season 1 were generally dull (except for Rumpelstiltskin's. Because he is awesome.).
Jed, Sadly, it would be a disaster to give the Democrats the House right now because they could fix the major Obamacare problems and make it much more likely to last. I guess we'll see though.
Kit, I don't know the show, but as I said, I've heard a lot of good things.
Andrew....I agree with T-Jed. How dare those Repubs fight the Dems on this! Since "we can't win" then we should just politely ask the Dems what they would like to do next. /sarc off
Seriously, I agree with your take on how the media will spin a shutdown and how a individual mandate will help O'Care. Unfortunately, I don't think enough people will be hurt (paying higher for insurance or paying a fee) to impact elections in 2014. There will be no enforcement mechanisms in place until the Dems are ready. So, young people will not sign up, they will not pay the fine, nothing will happen to affect them one way or the other, and the effects of O'Care on them will be negligible by the elections of 2014. So the same election dynamics will be in place and the House will stay R as will the Senate.
Since the Repubs get rolled (or sell out) in the Senate, we will be back to where we are today, with a divided Congress and stasis. I think it will be years before the mass of people begin to feel the effects of O'Care. It will be just another increase in what we pay the fed and will not be enough to have us rise up and overthrow the bastards.
I think the American people will find innovative ways around this monstrosity, as we always have. New healthcare delivery channels (Internet symptoms diagnosis and treatment; Minit Clinics in retail establishments; Wal-Mart cheap prescription services, etc.) so that people will avoid the astronomical increase in costs.
But, the insurance companies will suffer as all the young won't sign up! And when a favored industry suffers, what is our govt's response?......BAILOUTS!
Hell, the Repubs can't even win the battle of not exempting Congress from O'Care, and we think we can fix this overall clusterfark.
Nope we're screwed....and I for one accept our new healthcare governmental overlords and know of many "traitors" who want this "settled law" repealed.
Okay, shouldn't we be doing what the Dems do so well - damage control? I mean seriously, I have heard that Sequestration cut were going to SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT AND PEOPLE WOULD DIE IN THE STREETS! Did that happen? NO! And the only Shutdown that is REALLY going to happen is the Smithsonian won't open and the WH has suspended tours which they had already suspended during sequestration cuts. Oh, and Federal parks will shut down this weekend. BOO FREAKIN' HOO! Mail will still be delivered, seniors veterans and poor people will still get their checks and treatment, the trains planes and bridges WILL NOT FALL OUT OF THE SKY! The military will not stop fighting, our fleet of Navy vessels will not sink into the oceans. I could go on here, but you get the drift.
Perhaps we need to spend our time emphasizing how little it effects us WHEN THE GOVERNMENT IS SHUT DOWN!!!
Bev - I think you are onto something there. I had to laugh when our local news rag (a heavy leftist propaganda machine owned by Scripps in deep red east Tennessee) mysteriously had press problems delay delivery so they could go on full blame game spin mode. Seems to me it is proof it was a government propaganda organ caught up in the shut down. Maybe the presses need to sign up for obamacare.
Andrew - I am kidding (sort of) What I am really saying is, if there is nobody in this country who can grasp and cogently articulate why there are better alternatives than modern day progressivism and build a winning coalition, then maybe it isn't meant to be.
I cannot find a single that I disagree with you on. Good points. I'm certainly not a Tea Paryer nor do I consider myself a RINO,,,I'm a pragmatic Neo-Con I think...the press will eat the Republicans lunch. I've been asking my hardcore Republican friends, "Why didn't you come up with something in lieu of Obamacare..?" Well, too little too late...medical insurance was unaffordable for a vast group of people of who made too much money for Medicaid but not enough to buy their own...Obamacare is not the answer but where where the Republicans? I'm of a mind that the GOP should have just let the Dims own the darn thing then bash them when the populace woke up..
It's too soon to call anything yet, but I was watching the regular news last night and getting an impression of "shutdown fatigue." To be honest, I couldn't tell you how many times the gov't has shut down recently vs. the number of times it was threatened--so I guarantee Regular Joe can't remember either. All he knows is that this panic has been stirred up before but nothing ever affected him. I wonder how much damage this shutdown can actually cause the Republicans?
A few additional points:
• Out-of-work and under-employed Americans aren't going to shed any tears over furloughed federal employees who at least still have a job.
• No one who is only paying attention halfway is going to think the Republicans are refusing to pay the military.
• No one understands Obamacare, let alone the tweaks, and much less what everyone is fighting over. Confusion breeds anger but wins few converts.
Bev, An excellent point, but keep in mind, I'm just giving you analysis here of how I expect things will go. IF the Republicans can get unified and point out that...
(1) Nothing really gets shutdown, and those that do are because Obame chose them for political reasons,
(2) That they had no choice because Obama refuses even to discuss the budget,
(3) Obama has already exempted Big Business and the government, so why does he refuse to exempt average Americans... when the system isn't even ready to handle them.
...Then I think they could do well. But unity is impossible because Boehner and "the establishment" are more hated targets by the fringe than Obama. I will bet you that by the end of the day, talk radio and Michelle Bachmann have both blasted the Republicans for (insert hypocritical attack here).
Jed, I got your point and I share your pessimism on that. We need to find some conservatives who can actually state reasons why people should vote for conservatives. You know, there used to be so many, and now there are now.
On a related aside, Pat "BatShit" Buchanan, actually attacked William Buckley as a surrenderer the other day.
Critch, That's the real problem. The Republicans/conservatives have become truly horrible at seeing problems that bother the public. Thus, they don't offer their own solutions anymore. That leaves the Democrats to offer the only solution. Which means that eventually, the Democrats will get their way by default.
Unfortunately, that's getting worse because our "platform" has all but officially morphed into stop the Democrats.
tryanmax, It is too early, but the key to winning a shutdown is to make it seem like the other guy is acting irresponsibly. That's not going to be possible because the Democrats have learned to simply stay quiet and let the GOP rip itself to shreds.
On your points, it all depends on what gets spun and how it gets shown. For example, if "out-of-work" and "under-employed" people start to feel that the shutdown is hurting job growth (which the Democrats will sell hard), then they will be upset. If unemployment stops, then people will freak out.
Moreover, when the Republicans gloat about all those lazy people "learning a lesson" by being shutout of work, that won't play well at all. It will confirm the belief that the Republicans simply want to hurt people.
As for no one thinking the Republicans are refusing to pay the military, that's not that clear. The question will come down to which side the public thinks is using military families as a political pawn. For that, the Democrats have laid the groundwork for years by using the phrase "hostage taking," something the GOP whined about but never pushed back on.
This is an instance, where it would have been smart to do some prep work. For example, pay the military budget two months ago, before you talk about shutdowns. Get a unified strategy,. Create talking points. Get everyone on the same page... shoot the one who won't play along.
Patriot, A chunk of the public will be told starting in January that they need insurance or they will be fined. Those people will get pissed. If exploited properly, the would vote Republican in 2014... "vote for us, we'll kill this provision."
I saw this:
The Quinnipiac University national survey found that the public is split on the Affordable Care Act, with 47 percent opposed to it and 45 percent in favor. But Americans, by a lopsided 72-22 percent margin, say shutting down the government is not the answer.
Any thoughts on why these numbers are so far apart?
Terry, It's a question of importance. You might like Chunky Burger, but that doesn't mean you're willing to drive 100 miles to find one. Same thing here. People dislike Obamacare, but they don't think it's worth a shutdown to try to get part of it killed or delayed.
That's the bad math behind all of this. Even when the public is with you, they are only with you to a point.
And all Mark Levin's and Rush Limbaugh' listeners are in that 22%.
Of course my favorite part of trying to get information on the NY insurance exchanges is that the official webiste does not give any information even though at the bottom of the page it states that "This is the official informational website for the NY State of Health." Maybe they have an "unofficial " website or maybe there's some guy selling policiies out of his trunk...
Bev, Colorado shutdown because "demand was so great" (actually said that on their website) that they've stopped letting people open accounts today. They've overwhelmed the system because it is so popular.
Apparently, 1,000 people opened accounts today before they decided they couldn't take anymore. So if all of Colorado had to create accounts, that would take 7,000 days. Nice capacity.
Kit, Yep.
OH, NO!!! THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN PLUNGED INTO CHAOS!!!!! Whatever will we do?
Seriously, the headlines are a scream. If we can't get through the day or week without some petty bureaucrat telling what is wrong with us, then we are not Americans.
Well, Bev, in fairness, if they aren't telling us what to do, then they'll be out in the general economy messing up our orders at McDonalds. So putting them into the government is meant to protect really.
Also, you laugh, but we already had one person try to declare themselves King once the chaos started. Granted, that was me, but it happened. :-P
The RNC is clueless at this point as to what to do and I for one don't see any Ronald Reagans riding to the rescue. Cruz, Rand Paul, Boehner, Jindal etc just don't come across as leaders; at least for now. Now, I see leadership from a military point of view, "Would I follow that person into combat?" If I can't say yes, then I don't get the warm fuzzies for them. I know that's simplistic,,but, the POTUS should be able to lead and it's been a long time since we saw that. Obama can lead the Democrats because he is what they want, but I don't see what us Conservatives want out there right now..Maybe they'll surface. When i talk to young people, under 30, it's obvious that they have a different view of social issues than i do. They don't care if someone is gay, at all; they may not like abortion at all, many don't, but they feel that it's such a personal choice they don't want to end it. My son, who like me is very Catholic feels that the Vatican's money would be better spent on education than protesting. He does have a point. Now, these young conservatives are very pro-2nd Amendment, at least here in the South and some tell me that the young Democrats in this area are either pro-2nd Amendment or ambivalent about gun rights, so that issue may just die. For me, I really liked Seantor Jack Danforth of Missouri, he seemed to want to serve the people, all of them, as much as possible. Lamar Alexander probably falls into the same catagory. They seem to know what fights are worth picking. My GOP friends have fits when I point out that our Democrat Governor Nixon here in Missouri is a true conservative on many, many issues...he may not be their cup of tea sometimes, but he's sure not a liberal.
"The irony is that to “succeed,” the shutdown advocates needed House leadership to stop the shutdown, alleviating them of responsibility and giving them their traditional “Betrayal!” rallying call. Now a number of premises that were the basis of this and other similar legislative stunts are eviscerated." -Jennifer Rubin
LINK
Interesting article Kit. Rubin has been a right-wing bomb thrower who has become disillusioned with the talk radio set and I think she makes some really good points. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Critch, Social issues are definitely changing. I think we're becoming much more libertarian across the board on all issues -- from sex issues to gun issues to privacy issues etc.
As for leadership, I have to agree with you. I don't see a leader right now. I think part of the problem is that "the base" is determined to hate anyone who doesn't scream like an idiot, and that's not leadership, that's just panic behavior. Meanwhile, the establishment is bereft of ideas. So what you get are people who want to be in government because they view it as a job and people who want to be in government because they want to throw a tantrum. None of those people are leaders.
What the great leaders of the past had was an agenda and a desire to make things better. No one in our ranks has that right now. We have people who believe in single issues that the public rejects, people whose sole agenda is fundraising and keeping their jobs, and people whose agenda is "HELL NO!!!" We have no one like Reagan who wanted to make America better and help everyone to a better life. That is what is missing, and that is where real leadership will come from.
Andrew - What you don't know is that at this very moment, i am gathering my forces amongst all of the deer, rabbits, and bears in the National Parks in Colorado who will be otherwise be running amock without the National Park Service to keep them in line, and mounting a coup to claim the Throne as my own! Beware of bunnies on your porch. Bwahahahahaha! It is best that we ALL "go to Denver" alot to get through this...
Bev, Zounds! I hadn't thought of that. With the government on strike, who is protecting us from the woodland creatures! WE'RE DOOOOOOOMED!!
You know, "going to Denver" might be the only way to deal with our government these days.
The only real problem that I care to admit is that the computer/website crashes that prove how ill-prepared the HHS and the WH has been for the roll out, has been overshadowed by the Congressional high crimes and misdemeanors....
Just like how the fauxbuster took all attention away from Obama's Syria humiliation.
Bev, I'll tell you, the guy who has impressed me repeatedly since the election is Rand Paul. He's been very careful in his timing. He advances his own issues when the news cycle is running low and otherwise, he's attacked Obama in ways that made it clear he opposed Obama, but then let Obama spin in the wind as his own incompetence gets highlighted. He hasn't grandstanded. He hasn't tried to start civil wars. He's not trying to destroy his allies to get ahead. He even handled the attack by Christie well as it barely made the news.
Rand Paul is a seasoned politician who has probably learned well from his father. Let's hope that he can emerge a "statesman" among the rabble. And he does have that young JFK look going for him...
True. He seems to have learned a lot. I hope he can become a statesman.
... needs a haircut though. LOL!
BTW, Did you check New York's Obamacare website again? Do they have any plans yet?
The Website crashed shortly after it opened...
Due to overwhelming interest in the NY State of Health - including 2 million visits in the first 2 hours of the site launch - the health exchange is currently having log in issues. We encourage users who are unable to log in to come back to the site later when these issues will be resolved.
I have to laugh at the utter incompetence of this. I'll bet that Amazon or Oracle or Google could have set up a website in a week that does better than the turkeys they've set up.
Well, hopefully, it will continue to crash.
BTW, I don't know if anyone heard Obama's attack on the Republicans, but it was horrible... just horrible. Poorly written, stupid ideas, utter nonsense, hopelessly contradictory and confused, and delivered like he was asleep. Wow. This administration is so utterly incompetent.
Andrew and Bev.......It's because of the "overwhelming" success of the ACA that these websites are down. So many people want this and know that once it's in place our economy, ole people, children, kittens (aaargh) and puppies will be saved from the Repubs who just want to kill EVERYONE who's not a Tea Partier (May They All Burn In Hell - MTABIH).
Obama just wants to protect us from those Tea Partiers that want to kills us and starve us, and......and......force women and children into slave camps. We know it's true because Supreme Leader Obama (PBUH) says it's so.
I hate pikers!
Andrew...BTW...Have you ever done anything on "Snatch" the movie with Brad Pitt and Jason Statham? One of my top ten ........
Andrew - What was really bad is that there wasn't even basic information available. Not one link worked for basic explanations of how insurance worked, no rates, no plan descriptions, no basic info on deductibles or premiums, nothing. I realize that it is the first day, but really, I wasn't even wanting to sign up. I just wanted basic information.
As for my evil plot: Though I don't think I should to tell you this, the bears are not cooperating as I had hoped for Operation Tiara. I think I can rally the wolves and raccoons and a few salmon. So you better hold onto that crown really tight. The trout aren't biting and the squirrels...don't get me started about the squirrels! ;-9
OMG, You guys have to read the comments on this story...they are a scream!
OH NO! Not the Pandas too???
Bev, Not the Pandacam! We really are doomed. :(
That's interesting that they didn't have basic information. I suspect that's to prevent people from comparing plans, especially across state lines.
OH MY GOD! NOT THE PANDACAM!!!!
Hold on, there is a Pandacam?
Patriot, I haven't done anything on Snatch. I watched a few minutes, couldn't understand a word and turned it off.
The "our website shutdown because people are too thrilled to get insurance" line seems to be the sales pitch. I doubt it will work.
Kit, Yes. It is the glue that hold the internet together.
I KNEW IT! That's why the Chinese are so determined to increase the Panda population! They want to control the internet! Do the NSA and CIA know about this??
YIPES!
"They want to put me on display like some evil panda? Na-ha, I don't think so!" -Lana Parilla (Evil Queen, Once Upon a Time bloopers)
I would have commented earlier, but I must have knocked myself out beating my head against the wall at this... I can't disagree with how horribly this is going to hurt the Republicans, Andrew (I'm seeing a lot of anger at this among my acquaintances already), and feel pretty damn frustrated with it all. It seems like just when there's some hope that the Republicans are getting it things like this happen... I wonder if things are ever going to turn around sometimes.
- Daniel
Excellent! The first stage of my diabolical plan is complete. Everything is falling into place and those rubes in Washington are none the wiser. Now, with no one watching, I'll finally be able to take over the world!
Daniel, At this point, things are still going well. The media is treading lightly because they don't want another sequestration blow-back disaster. So they will wait until people start losing paychecks before they make a serious attack. The market shot up today, which destroys the economic argument that this will hurt. Obama gave a pathetic speech which did nothing to hurt the GOP. And so far, unity has been maintained, except for Michelle Bachmann who is trying desperately to make herself relevant.
The real test will be in a week to see which side holds their unity better.
That said, we are also lucky that I think most people have simply tuned out of politics. They consider it a game of fools screaming nonsense at each other with no real changes ever happening. I wonder if that isn't going to make whatever happens irrelevant? If so, that favors us.
Still, this wasn't a great idea.
Pandas are tasty.
Oh, and Obama ordered the WWII Memorial barricaded knowing that a group of Mississippi WWII Vets would be visiting today. A PR nightmare for the WH ensued because the Vets just moved the barricades and went right in. The MSM is wondering why an open mall Memorial was barricaded to begin with...
Bev, It's things like that which are going to blow up on Obama. It is hamfistedly political and the MSM will actually call him out on things like that.
Andrew, it gets worse. There are tens of thousands of WWII veterans groups scheduled to visit in October. The National Parks Dept has threatened to arrest them if they try enter the Memorial. I mean really, how stupid is that?
Bev, It's intensely stupid. And if Obama's NPD ends up making the news because they are arresting veterans for trying to enter an open memorial, that will be SUPER bad PR... game changing PR.
Andrew, that's more reassuring. The way the drama develops out in DC can be nerve-wracking sometimes. The quotes from the Saturday open thread and the Rubin article are good to see, too, in that it seems like there's finally some pushback against the fringe. Hopefully things will go well, though people just tuning it out as idiotic screaming does seem likely too.
As far as the barricade at the Memorial and threats to arrest the veterans goes, just when you think you've seen everything... O_o That's just too mind-numbingly stupid of Obama I can barely offer any coherent thought on it! I can't say I'd feel sorry for him if it blows up on him, though. I guess we'll have to see if his political self-preservation instincts kick in on time here...
- Daniel
Daniel, On Obama v. the veterans, keep in mind that he's no genius and his administration seems singularly incompetent. They never make good decisions, they are horrible at PR and they are even worse at policy. He makes enemies of everyone and he bleeds support. He's actually far worse than Carter ever was. He's just lucky that his opponents implode.
On the quotes and the pushback, I'm happy about that too. I'm seeing a lot of it suddenly and I'm seeing more and more conservatives now saying openly that what is happening on the fringe and on talk radio is bad. In particularly they are starting to realize that talk radio does not care about conservatism, it cares about bomb throwing because that produces ratings. I suspect the fringe has peaked and their influence is waning... too many conservatives are getting it and the Republicans are learning to defend themselves (little by little). So there are good signs.
FYI, Obama has apparently decided that the military will get paid. That was his biggest (only) bargaining chip. Nice.
There was a government shut down? Guess I've been spending too much time watching the Broncos!
Can I get my September estimated tax payment back? I could use the money.
Guess where I get to go next week? Right in the middle of that mess with our PAC. Should be interesting.
I hear Panda szechwan is to die for (especially the Asian bear gallbladder soup)
Koshcat, Good luck with your PAC! Keep you door locked. I hear there are roving bands of WWII veterans breaking in all over the place. LOL!
Panda szechwan... yum.
What's funny about the shutdown, is how few people seemed to notice or care today. Perhaps our government is becoming a lot less relevant than anyone would have imagined?
I got an email from Thrivent explaining the shutdown in brief. It basically said there isn't much you can't do. The top of the list of things you can't do was "Stop paying taxes..." and the second was "Get taxpayer assistance from the IRS." I thought that was awesome. It sends a pretty clear message without saying anything outright. I'm always glad when I see companies doing that sort of thing. I wish more would.
Oh, FYI - the chain link fences going up around the Memorials have been dubbed "Barry-cades". Hah! I wish I'd thought of that. Now those blasted recalcitrant WWII Vets will learn their lesson. Don't mess with Barry....
tryanmax, That's nice. :) As an aside, I can't imagine anyone being upset that the IRS is shutdown.
Bev, That is fantastic! Barry-cades! LOL!
Wow, so they still plan to stop those pesky veterans from seeing a memorial to them... which is sitting out all by itself where no government employee is needed. Amazing. I hope they storm the White House!
I hope they storm the fences. What are they going to do, shoot them? Talk about a PR nightmare.
Koshcat, I hope they storm the fences as well.
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