Let’s start with the obvious. The debates didn’t help Obama. Romney started gaining momentum just before the debates and he kept right on going all the way through the end. Nothing has slowed him. Indeed, check out the polls. Gallup showed Romney creeping up little by little until he took a 5%-7% lead, where he’s stayed since the last debate. Team Obama tried to smear Gallup so people would dismiss this, but now Rasmussen is showing a similar lead. Even the networks, who notoriously poll several percent to the left of real events are showing Romney and Obama tied or Romney leading by a single point. So it looks like nationally, Romney is ahead by 5%.
This weekend also gave us polls showing Pennsylvania within 3% of Romney’s grasp and Obama’s lead in Minnesota. . . of all places. . . down to 3% (47% to 44%). Don’t forget that undecideds tend to break for the challenge 2-1. Rasmussen has Romney up by 2% in Ohio.
Obama has signaled he’s giving up on Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Virginia. Wisconsin is tied and so is Nevada. Obama is now desperately flooding the airwaves there and in Michigan. These are all states Obama was supposed to win handily. Heck, the Des Moines Register in Iowa just endorsed Romney -- the first Republican they've endorsed in 40 years!! Meanwhile, Romney and the RNC are moving into blue states. Time is precious, so don’t believe they would do this without good reason.
So how has Obama responded?
● First, he changed strategies. Just as I said he needed to do, Obama is now trying to go positive and to present voters with a reason to vote for him. To do that, he’s created a series of ads touting his five-point plan and asking you very nicely to compare it to “Governor Romney’s, to see which is better for you.” These are quite good ads and he comes across as very presidential. But I think they are too late and his plan is too uninspired because this is the same plan he touted in each of the debates and it attracted no one.All in all, this reeks of desperation for Obama. The fact Obama is pouring money into supposedly safe states tells us that he’s in serious trouble and he knows it. The fact he’s changed his message tells us that he knows his current message isn’t selling. Indeed, I think it’s too late to change minds, not to mention his “5-point plan” just isn’t inspiring. The tax cut proposal smells of a desperation bribe, but no one is going to take a $400 bribe on credit. His attempt to appear presidential in light of the hurricane also won’t work because we expect that from our Presidents and you don’t get extra-credit for doing what you’re supposed to do. Not to mention, he has a history of ignoring natural disasters.
● Secondly, because his new plan isn’t working, and I think they know that, he’s floating the idea of a $400 per person payroll tax cut. Look for more to follow.
● Third, Obama is making a big show of finally acting like a President in the face of a natural disaster by letting it be known he’s going to monitor this hurricane closely rather than campaign (cough cough John McCain... "I'm going to suspend my campaign..." cough cough).
● Fourth, even though he’s trying to go positive, he’s also putting out some truly vile ads suddenly, like one in which a group of children sing how Romney wants to let sick people “just die.” He's also running a Mediscare ad which has been 100% debunked, even by the left.
Now compare this to Romney, who is displaying extreme confidence and only fine-tunes his strategy rather than trying to make wholesale changes. If you want to know who is really winning, there are your clues.
Thoughts?
73 comments:
I am quietly optimistic. If this wasn't so much closer than it should be (for all the reasons we have often discussed) I would really feel good. But still, I always worry about the football being yanked away
Andrew, You've predicted all of this and I doubted you for a while, but I think you are right. I'm getting very optimistic about this election!
Also, great points about their behavior. I do wonder how the storm will upset things?
I happened to catch the first segment of Rush's show. Not surprisingly, the chattering idiots at MSNBC was analyzing how this potentially catastrophic natural event might help B.O.T.U.S. How tasteless.
Jed, I fully understand your concerns and sadly, this election is not a landslide or doesn't appear to be one yet. But I still think the writing is on the wall and all the signs point to a good-sized Obama loss... and I think Obama knows it.
DUQ, Thanks. Stick with me and I will steer your right! :)
I've said this before, but forget polls... look to behavior and money. The money flow and the behavior tell me that Obama knows he's in deep trouble and is desperately trying to right the ship in the last few states where he thinks he has a chance -- his firewall.
Jed, Let me guess, they were saying that this gives him a chance to appear presidential? Ok, well, that didn't work in the past for him -- 0-3% bump that faded overnight. Moreover, you don't get extra-credit for doing what you're supposed to... you only get extra credit by going above and beyond.
Also, I think they might want to consider that this storm will hit liberal states and that may well interfere with their elections as people will be away or just too busy to deal with it. That means that the outcome in none of those states is certain anymore because the people most likely to vote are Romney people. If this storm is indeed bad, it would not surprise me to see some GOP-favoring surprises in senate races and the race for President.
yeah, I think Limbaugh's point was that the storm has become
THE STORY which keeps the liberal media from helping push a bogus Obama resurgence meme. The fading hope was they could help drag their guy across the finish line, plus what you said, less likely to impact Romney voters.
Jed, That's true too. the more they focus on the storm, the less time they have to attack Romney or to help Obama. Time is precious right now.
I think that Romney will have it wrapped up in the Eigth inning.
Remember all you in the DNC, there is no crying in baseball.....
Indi, There may be no crying, there is certainly complaining and suing... so expect that.
I think it will be clear by this weekend that the race is over.
It's my party and I'll cry if I want to
cry if I want to
You'd cry too if it happened to you!
Dear Democrats, maybe if you weren't such leftist jerks, then you wouldn't need to cry? Did you ever think of that?
It wasn't just the Des Moines Register, Andrew. All six of Iowa's so-called "major" newspapers have endorsed Romney for President. On a similar note, RCP, despite having both Iowa and Ohio as momentarily leaning toward Obama, has its people privately saying that if current trends continue, both will probably break for Obama. So there's that.
I heard it was several, I didn't know it was all six "major" papers! I wonder if this swings Iowa over into the Romney column? I'll bet it does. If liberal papers are endorsing a Republican for the first time in most people's lifetimes, then that means something locally. I'll bet that shifts all the independents to Romney.
I don't follow you on RCP? Will break for Romney or Obama?
Oh darn. I meant to say "break for Romney." Sorry for the confusion, all. No, the RCP people are privately saying that while their current poll averages still favor Obama by a couple of points, they think both states will follow the national trend and wind up swinging to Romney in the end.
Incidentally, while I stand by my previous statements about Minnesota, I do notice that Bill Clinton has been dispatched to the Land of 10,000 Lakes to do some stumping. Gee, they wouldn't be doing that if they weren't a little nervous about the state, would they?
I think Minnesota will stay in the Obama column, but if there is a redward (is that a word? I'm making it a word) shift in the state, that gives me hope for one or two other states which are definitely closer (*cough cough* Pennsylvania *cough cough*).
T-Rav, Wow, I'm amazed the RCP people are saying that. I think it's true, but I'm still amazed they would say that! Let's hope it happens that way.
T-Rav, Redward works for me!
I think it's impossible that Minnesota goes to Romney, but the mere fact that Obama needs to shore them up is amazing. And I agree, Minnesota won't flip, but the closeness there suggests that other states like PA and Wisconsin and even Michigan might.
Speaking of Michigan, I heard that Chrylser announced today that they are moving Jeep production from the US to China. So much for the vaunted "I saved Detroit!" argument.
Uh, the Dems are already screaming that Romney is stealing the election, so expect MORE of that. Apparently, some Romney somewhere owns some voting machine making company or invested in one or something. I've decided that I am not paying any attention to anything my idiot "friends" post on Facebook.
But once again, I have to point out that there is no voter fraud except if Romney wins and then there is LOTS AND LOTS of voter fraud. It's rampant everywhere...expect that if Romney wins voter ID laws will be enacted in every liberal leaning state. Especially those that break for Romney.
There was an article stating the Secretary of State Clinton asked for increased security at embassies and was denied.
Could this be the result of some back stabbing in the White House cabinet or is Hillary deciding that falling on her sword if Obama wins is fine but since he may lose ... well... no need for her to keep bleeding .... Right?
I find this very interesting especially since we are likely to find out more after the election.
How hard do you think the First Black President (Bill Clinton) is campaigning for the First Gay President (Barack Obama) in Wisconsin.... I wonder...
Bev what I read is that the voting machines used by a company Romney's son is affiliated with owns two machines in two counties.
Andrew, I'm starting to feel bullish on Iowa and Wisconsin. Just a bit more attention, and they'll swing our way. Pennsylvania, I don't know. It keeps going blue by a narrow margin, so I still think it's a longshot.
Except....I just noticed an interesting note from the GOP's own figures. As in 2008, they have the lead over Democrats in PA's absentee ballots; but that year, the lead at this point was 1.9%. The lead this year? 18.8 percent. Not a typo.
Bev, There is no voter fraud unless we want to believe the Republicans do it. That's how Democratic minds work. Amazing, isn't it?
Indi, I think Hillary's apology was always disingenuous. It came too late and sounded too forced. It was just enough that no one could accuse her of being disloyal, but it simultaneously made it clear that she was not taking the blame. It would not surprise me if the Clinton's think the election is over (or they want payback) so this item was planted to stir up and issue that seemed to be dying down.
Indi, Clearly those are the two most important counties in the whole country "East Coastia" and "West Coastia". And we all know that Mormonism condones vote rigging. Clearly, this all adds up to a stolen election.
By the way, who is counting votes in Chicago? Oh, that's right, Obama's buddy Rahm.
Bev: for your "friends" (when Snopes can't even spin something like this in their final paragraph...):
http://www.snopes.com/politics/romney/votingmachines.asp
T-Rav: [1] "redward" - great new word!
[2]"As in 2008, they have the lead over Democrats in PA's absentee ballots; but that year, the lead at this point was 1.9%. The lead this year? 18.8 percent. Not a typo. "
Fantabfrickinlicious!!!!!!!
Oh, and the storm may "delay" the Oct unemployment report from US Labor Dept. Hmmm, I wonder if it's bad?
T-Rav, Wow. I'm never sure what to make of PA, but that is encouraging. I really do think the state comes down to a matter of turnout, and there is little reason for a high Democratic turnout this time, but there is a huge reason for Republican turnout. So I am starting to think we may get it in a squeaker.
rlaWTX, Excellent use of lots of new words! The Commentaramanary will be proud! :)
So even snopes couldn't back this one up, huh? That makes this a truly pathetic rumor.
Bev, I don't mind. I don't think it hurts us to delay it. What we don't want is a surprise surge in employment.... not that it matters really because the number isn't what matter, it's the "feel" people have, and right now people feel depressed on the employment front.
rla, glad I could make your day on both counts!
I make no firm predictions, but I definitely think Pennsylvania will be close.
T-Rav, I think PA can't be predicted because it's all about turnout and we won't know who turns out until the night of the election. I would bet they don't call PA before midnight, if even then.
Andrew, it'll come down to the numbers from the southwest and the Philly suburbs. I plan on watching those returns very closely; if there's a major surge in the former and anything like a split decision in the latter, look out.
Incidentally, you know all these polls that have been projecting numbers based on D+4 or D+6 (or higher) turnout models? Based on a three-week survey, Gallup says the turnout model will actually be...even. Or maybe R+1.
T-Rav, If that's true, then we really are looking at a landslide. I figured, base on history, that we were looking at +3/+4D and independents would decide the election by going 6-4 for Romney. But if things are indeed 0 or +1R, then we are looking at 5%-7% wins in places like Wisconsin and probably a 3% win in Ohio. Things could be much better than we understand them to be at the moment!
In PA, I think Philly is the key. If Philly turns out huge then Obama wins, if not, then Romney wins. Philly is just too large for the rest of the state to overcome.
As a long time voter from the Philly suburbs, this is the kind of election that could swing back big time for Romney. Yes, there is a huge Jewish vote that is typically (D) but remember how former local news woman turned politician Marjorie Margolis-Mishvinsky was summarily given the boot. I mainly worry that the Philly Black Panther protected machine will be able to "find" just enough votes to keep it in the Dem's column
Yo, T-Rav! Oiho, Iowa -- what's the big effin' difference????
Jed, I don't know enough about the Philly to say anything for certain, but it seemed to me that in the last few elections, the supposedly solid Republican suburbs have swung pretty far left.
Thank you, Mr. Vice President. LOL!
The funny thing is that probably really IS Biden!
Bev, It wouldn't surprise me. What else does he have to do except hang around blogs? ;)
I'm going to have to side with the media somewhat and agree that the storm does help Obama. By taking focus off of the election, it puts Obama's slide on pause for a moment, so instead of losing ground every day for the last week before the vote, he can hold a little steadier. But let me be clear (to steal a phrase), there is no way this storm will reverse the momentum currently in place.
Also, not that it's come up here, but hand-wringing that 0bama will declare marshal law and postpone the elections is decidedly overwrought. The truth of the matter is that this election cannot come fast enough for Obama. Delaying it would only give more time for his numbers to slide. Not to mention the major freak-out that would cause amongst some voters.
Okay, it's getting really, really windy...my door is rattling. Don't tell my Mom, but I am going to go out and investigate...
oh it has definitely become more liberal in the burbs, no question. I'm just saying this is just the kind of failed administration where I could see it swinging back to be either a Romney win or very close. That would be distinctly different than 2008, and if, as you mentioned, the enthusiasm gap creates less of a turnout in Philly, there is definitely a chance for Romney to take Pennsylvania.
I find it interesting that Oregon is only a leans Obama as I don't think Romney has even campaigned in the northwest. I used to think that Illinois and California were lost causes but they are only tracking about 52% for Obama. Now NY, that is a lost cause. 60% Obama? I also find Mass. interesting. "Romney was good enough to be our governor but he's too conservative to be president." Of course they seem proud of their blond indian. I think it may be an interesting state as Romney may do as well (or poorly) as Brown; if Brown wins Romney might.
be safe, Bev.
let me be clear, Joe, I think Ohio & Iowa (however Dem they may be) might take umbrage at that question.
tryanmax, Let me also add that it is impossible for Obama to declare Marshall law and it's impossible for him to suspend the elections. That's not the way our system works, so anyone who thinks that's possible is engaging in paranoid fantasy... but I can guess who is probably crowing about it at the moment.
In terms of helping Obama, I think that one cuts both ways because while the storm keeps things from getting worse for Obama, he really does need this time to turn things around. So he's losing time he desperately needs.
Bev, We won't tell your mom! Watch out for flying witches and falling houses!
Jed, That could well be, I just remember that the Philly suburbs used to be considered the Republican part. Now there really isn't a Republican part.
Okay, THAT was exhilarating! Just walked down the street to the East River. It is REALLY windy! Not much rain yet.
Koshcat, I can't imagine Romney winning any of those states. On Oregon, Oregon is always a tease. Every election cycle it looks like Republicans could finally win the state... and then they lose by 4%. It never fails.
Bev, Welcome back. I'm glad you survived! :)
Andrew = It's a little like Captain Ahab and the white whale! Man against Nature!!! Cool. I guess I should be more careful, but when my door is rattling, I can't resist...
It's getting really loud now...maybe I'll not go out again, but high tide is soon...
Bev, Captain Ahab is someone we can all look up to! ;)
I can understand why your door rattling would compel you to investigate the storm of the century.
As an aside, if you're experiencing high tide on the second floor, you might want to see higher ground.... inland.
If I "experience" high tide on the second floor, I'm moving...I wonder if my insurance covers flooding? I better check. Oops, that's one thing I forgot.
Bev, do you go outside to investigate every time there is a storm?
Jen - No, just when it sounds like a freight train rolling down my street. It's getting very loud right now. When it's just a regular storm, it's just annoying.
We had severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings one time, and my parents called to tell me that I needed to get in the basement. I went outside instead. Never did go in the basement, and usually don't.
Well, Jen, having grown up in Tornado Alley, I can say that the basement is probably the best place to go. But I understand the need to see what's going on too. It IS exhilarating and kind of refreshing to feel the power of the wind.
But stay inside and go to the basement when your parents tell you to...
But Bev, you said for us not to tell your mom. Will you tell on me if I don't obey their orders? They can't prove I didn't listen to them.
Unless you MFers want Randy Moss' alma mater to lay down some West Virginia-style justice, I think you mean "martial" law. Just kiddin', MFers -- I love you all.
Jen - I'm not telling nobody nothing! I promise! Your secret is safe with me...;-)
LOL! Wow did I misspell martial law! I wonder what I was thinking? Maybe I did have Randy Moss on the brain?
Thanks Joey B!
Bev, if you won't tell, I won't tell either...
Okay, I just got an "extreme alert" on my cell phone to seek shelter which compels me to go outside. Why is that? Am I just that much of a contrarian that I refuse to listen to my own cell phone?
Bev, did you see the movie Twister? I did, and while watching, it was a bit of a rush, even though it was being watched at home.
You could always be a storm chaser. My sister used to work with a guy that chases storms as a hobby. I got some really interesting emails from him describing what it was like.
Bev, don't worry about it. Here in tornado country, the best time to meet your neighbors is during a severe weather alert b/c everyone goes out on the porch for a look.
When I was in college, I remember everyone standing in the oval looking up at the sky while the Hawaiians freaked out and refused to come outside.
Let me be fair to Obama on one thing: He did not put up the creepy children singing video. That was done by an ad group.
Now the weird Lena Dunham ad? That was the Obama campaign. The actual, official Obama for America* campaign.
Really, I checked. I had to click on "Uploaded by Obamacampaigndotcom" or whatever it's called.
*Obama for America? That sounds more like an "Election Campaign" than a "Re-election campaign" doesn't it?
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Good news on the election. God willing, in 4 years it will be "Morning in America again."
Okay, just went outside again...won't do that again until it passes. It is now high tide and, as I suspected, the East River has now breached the seawall and the FDR is completely flooded out and the river is about to creep up the block...YIPES! That has to be a 15 foot rise to do that. The wind sounds like a freight train and just pushed me down the block. I guess I should be scared, but I am just in awe. Mother Nature is just grand!
Bev, careful about that, I had to go out once, to make sure the cans were placed in a safe place. Luckily, my area of Pennsylvania is still okay, for some reason.
I'm pretty much inside for the night though. My, I miss wood crafts or cooking outdoors, and yes I like doing it when it's somewhat cold, or doing my actual outdoor research job outside! Being indoors isn't that fun for all that long, I can't imagine being the vampire survivor from the novel, I am Legend, or any of the film adaptations. (/sarc)
Yikes! Stay indoors, Bev!
As a somewhat humorous note, a friend of mine in Maryland just put up a picture on Facebook of the flashlight section at Wal-Mart. Completely empty.
Bev, be careful. Very careful.
As someone who is from the Deep South I have been hit by every hurricane to hit the southeast either dead-on or whipped by the tail. Fortunately we have been far enough inland that we never had to evacuate or fear a storm surge. But we have gotten a glimpse of what a Hurricane can do, even when it is inland and weakened.
So let me tell you: Hurricanes are not to be trifled with.
I've been telling my husband for awhile that I think Romney will win for the simple reason that I know a lot of people who voted for Obama last time that have decided to vote Romney, but I can't find one that voted for McCain that is now going to vote for Obama.
There's no more hype to usher him into office. Reality has set in and it isn't pretty. Once the swing voters got a look at Romney and saw how knowledgable he was about the economy it was a whole new ballgame.
SQT, That's an excellent observation. There are a lot of people changing sides, but they all seem to be leaving Obama. That is really bad news for Obama.
I also think it shows that all the excitement is gone for Obama and that will hurt him with undecideds and it will keep his base depressed. And since this election will come down to turnout in some states, that will be really bad news for Obama.
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