Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Things Are Looking Bad For Obama

Things are not going well for Team Obama. The debate was a debacle and liberals are now beginning to ask if Obama even wants to win. Others are joking about him using their donations to buy pot (see, e.g. Bill Maher). Early voting is sending up huge warning signs for Obama, the polls are finally starting to show movement against Obama, and Biden is on deck. Let’s discuss.

Early Turnout Leans Romney: Turnout is key to winning elections and right now the turnout is telling us that Romney has a significant advantage. Obama won in 2008 with a +7% Democratic turnout advantage nationally. That’s the high-water mark for the Democrats. In certain critical states, the turnout was even higher for Obama. This enthusiasm advantage translated into a large advantage for Obama in early voting, which made Obama's election day job easier. This year, everything is reversed:
● In Ohio, the early voting edge went to Obama over McCain by +14% D in 2008, and Obama won by 4.6%. Right now, the early voting is only +4% D, which means Obama needs to make up around 6% on election day to win the state.

● In North Carolina, which Obama won by 0.3% in 2008, early turnout is favoring Romney by a 2-1 margin, with GOP ballots coming in 44% ahead of the pace in 2008. Again, Obama will need to make up significant ground on election day.

● In Iowa, Obama had a 150,000 advantage in early voting in 2008 and he won by 9.5%. In 2004, John Kerry had a 60,000 advantage in early voting and Bush won by 2.4%. Right now, Obama has only a 77,000 advantage. That suggests a tossup.
None of this means Obama is losing or that he’s lost. What this tells us is that Democratic enthusiasm is indeed way down and Republican enthusiasm is way up. That’s really bad for Obama because this election will depend on turnout. It also means that the Democrats are not running as good of a ground game as they have in the past and Romney is way ahead of McCain in that regard. Indeed, his campaign has already met more people face to face than McCain’s did. So what this ultimately means is that Obama is lagging.

Polling Bump: Meanwhile the polls are showing a significant bump for Romney following his debate performance.
● In Wisconsin, the famously liberal PPP poll shows Obama’s 7% lead (52% to 45%) falling to a mere 2% (49% to 47%). That’s a 5% bump for Romney. Romney’s biggest gains came among women in that poll.

● Rasmussen shows Romney with a 2% national lead (49% - 47%), for a bump of about 4%. Most other polls are showing a 3-5% bump. Gallup shows Romney with a 5% bounce.

● The Battleground Poll shows Romney winning independents 51% to 35%, Obama won them last time 52% to 44%, and it shows a 13% enthusiasm gap for the Republicans.

● Rasmussen also shows Romney only 1% behind in Ohio and 2% behind in Nevada, but 1% ahead in Virginia, 2% ahead in Florida and Colorado, and 3% ahead in North Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire. And don’t forget, Rasmussen is mixing 2008 turnout with 2004 turnout... not 2010.
This is bad news for Obama because these polls are getting close to the point where they simply can’t be faked enough anymore to make the race appear competitive. When that happens, look for a sharp, sudden break in the race away from Obama. Moreover, this may be an indication of the beginning of momentum. If that’s true, then the race is over. The next couple weeks will be very instructive.

Biden: Finally, they’ve hidden Joey Biden away for six days to prepare him for the debate Thursday night. Personally, I’m dreading this debate. I suspect the strategy Biden will use will be to avoid trying to meet Ryan on anything statistical or principled, and to instead keep countering Ryan’s points with “arguments” about individuals who will be hurt and with statements like, “man, you’re talking about millions of people who are going to go broke trying to pay for healthcare bills they can’t afford.” That will make for a messy, confusing debate as the two candidates basically talk past each other. Moreover, comments like that are impossible to counter because they are emotional in nature and people will either believe them or they won’t. Hopefully, Ryan will be prepared to handle this.

Personally, every time Biden tries that, I would counter with the identical attack Romney made on Obama’s record and I would phrase it in terms of:
“Talking about people hurting, how about the 23 million people who can’t find jobs, the 47 million on food stamps, the one in six Americans now below the poverty line, the two hundred million middle class families whose incomes crashed $4,300 during your administration, whose health care costs rose $2,500, who saw their gas prices double, who watched your administration double the deficit and waste the money on cronyism to nowhere, and who have no idea how their grandkids are going to pay off your debt. I think you and Mr. Obama have caused enough pain.”
Thoughts?

98 comments:

LawHawkRFD said...

Off Topic: Barry Obama slipped on his best bib overalls, galoshes and sweat band, and landed Air Force One in Bakersfield We were all going to throw water balloons at him, but then we remembered that his EPA has cut off the water in order to protect the damned Delta smelt. We thought of other ways of filling the balloons, but the alternatives were illegal, unsanitary, or dangerous, so we gave up on that. We would have simply run him out of town on rail from the high-speed train to nowhere, but we didn't have enough time to plan.

LL said...

I think that Biden will try that sort of "father to son" relationship by schooling Ryan, and as you said, by appealing to the emotional issues based on the tried and true class warfare.

Biden is taking six days to prepare while Ryan is on the stump. VP debates don't mean as much absent some horrifying gaffe on the part of one or the other candidate.

I expect that it will be scored a win for Ryan across the board, but I don't think that Joe will come off as badly as his boss did.

Anthony said...

Biden routinely trips over his own tongue on the stump so I'm expecting hilarity to ensue in an actual debate. If by some dark miracle it doesn't no big deal people vote for the top of the ticket and Romney dominated what will surely be th most watched political nt of the year.

K said...

Hawk: Get rid of Obama?

Contribute to his Hawaiian mansion. A membership at the local golf course would be helpful as well. I get the feeling that he's hankerin to bug out of Washington ASAP.

K said...

Andrew: Get back to me the day after the election.

"24 hours is a long time in politics" - Black Adder.

Libertarian Advocate said...

6 days to prepare for a debate or 6 days to keep Biden from being a ridicule magnet? I'm thinking its really the latter.

I suspect Ryan's gonna have Biden calf-roped inside of a few minutes.

Anthony said...

K,

I don't think Obama is coming back from that performance. I can think of guys who have lost debate A and won debate B (and election or reelection) but I can't think of an debate where a guy so clearly didn't want to be there.

Gore approaching Bush like he wanted to attack him mid-debate was famously bizarre, but Obama's wilting performance set a new high water mark for failure.

Obama might not humiliate himself in his next two debates, but unless Mitt does this I wholeheartedly believe this is over.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

I still think this debate will be viewed by more people just because of the intense smack-down of Obama. I think the American People want to see another meltdown. I think they enjoy it when a pompous elitist gets shown to be an empty suit. I think they will tune in to view Biden. I don't think there is a diminished interest.

Tennessee Jed said...

I think Biden will go exactly the way you predict. The biggest problem Ryan faces is the incredibly low expectations for Biden. So unless he commits an incredible soundbite gaffe or two, the press will be giving him high marks. Certainly the lib press will be eager to try and make analysis about how surprisingly strong Biden is.

I do like the trend, and it seems as if some of Obama's most obvious panders are not helpinghttp://www.visitpittsburgh.com/essentials/neighborhoods/mt-washington/him all that much. The Chavez suck-up is a great example. AP covered it. No mention of the timing being so clearly a pander, although they did mention deep in the article it could help "shore up" Latino voters for the prez.

BevfromNYC said...

If the Biden/Palin debates are any indication, the VP debate should be interesting. Experienced politician Biden was matched pretty equally to neophyte politician Palin in 2008. Ryan, seasoned politician and policy wonk, will be a different story all together. At least they are preparing Biden. You know Ryan will come in with detail after detail to counter just like Romney and everything he says will be branded "a lie" immediately by the chattering classes (I.e the MSM). It's just so predictable.

AndrewPrice said...

K, We'll see. Right now, it looks to me like momentum is taking over and when political moment hits, the race is over.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, Best of aim with the water ballons.

AndrewPrice said...

LL, I could see Biden trying the father/son thing. In any event, I expect him to try all emotion rather than trying to use any sort of logic. I wonder how aggressive he plans to be though?

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, Ultimately, that's true. Unless Ryan or Biden has a total meltdown, the most likely result is that this debate ultimately gets ignored.

Personally, I'm hoping Biden left a few doozies fly that can't be ignored. But I doubt it. We'll see.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, I think there's cause for concern with the VP debate but I don't believe Biden will be able to run over Ryan. Our guy has a lot of energy and a lot of facts at his back, as we know; moreover, he was a staffer for VP candidate Jack Kemp in '96 and surely learned a few things from how that went so badly. At worst, it'll be a draw, but if he can take a similar tack to his convention speech, I think he can turn the tables on Slow Joe.

AndrewPrice said...

K, I think a lot of people would contribute to the "get Obama out of town" fund if he would agree to leave! :)

AndrewPrice said...

Libertarian Advocate, Good question! I'll tell you what though, I think six days of preparing is too much. Debates require a spontaneous feel and if you spend six days trying to memorize lines and practicing delivering them, then you are going to seem flat and things will go wrong the moment Ryan goes off script.

tryanmax said...

I can see no way for Biden to actually beat Ryan, but he will dance. I expect him to be as slippery as we've ever seen a Democrat. I haven't seen enough of Ryan to gauge how he will handle that, so I've baited my breath.

My prognostication: Ryan will perform comparably to Romney and Biden will manage to remain gaffe-free for a night. The actual debate will be a clear Ryan win, however the majority of outlets will call it a draw. Hard left outlets will spin a Biden win while hard right outlets will criticize Ryan for not winning harder.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I agree. Gore made a mistake in judgment, Obama simply lacks the skills. I don't think he can learn the skills in time to do much better in future debates. But even more, he seems to be on the wrong track, so I don't think he can turn this around even if he does somehow learn the skills. Not to mention, at this point, he would need to have a really strong performance just to regain his reputation as competent and Romney would need to collapse before Obama could be seen as a messiah figure again -- and Romney doesn't collapse.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, Here's another reason it will have lower ratings -- the NFL. Someone scheduled this thing opposite a football game!!

Individualist said...

Axelrod is supposedly Biden's mentor for the debate.

Does that mena that maybe Bidne tries to get aggressive and attack Ryan for being mean, corrupt etc?

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, The Chavez thing is really poorly timed. The last thing a Democrats wants to be seen doing this close to an election is sucking up to a leftist icon.

The trend is encouraging and if it keeps up for even a little more, then I think it will take on momentum and that will end the race in a huge victory. On that point, by the way, the guys at the University of Colorado with the economic model predict 330 electoral votes for Romney based on the economy.

I agree about Biden. Unless he truly implodes, the MSM will declare him the winner by virtue of not looking like a fool. And my guess is that they are programming him with things to say that will be impossible to attack -- lots of anecdotal evidence meant to show he "cares." He can't win with that, but it is hard to beat him decisively that way.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Excellent points. Biden was a match for Palin, a neophyte with no national experience and limited brainpower. Ryan is so much more than Palin in every regard, and he's even proven that he has a compelling television presence.

My biggest concerns are really that (1) it's very, very hard to win when you have to debate a fool, (2) Biden is not bound by truth or decency, so Ryan will be facing made up facts all night, (3) the expectations are so high for Ryan that it will be nearly impossible not to have a letdown, and (4) Ryan has proven weak in the past when attacked with personal stories. On several occasions, he's had no real defense for that kind of attack. That's why I suggest the counterattack above.

In any event, this should be really interesting.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, In a straight up honest debate of issues, Ryan would humiliate Biden. But everyone knows that and there is no way Biden gets into that kind of fight. I think Biden will try to muddle everything up, keep it small and confused, and keep it personal so that people can't judge who had the better argument and will instead go with who seemed nicer.

That's a hard debate to win, and Ryan will need to be prepared to push Biden away to get some room. I'd like to see Ryan deliver a strong, positive vision for America and keep attacking Obama's record. If Biden wants to whine about people who will be hurt by Ryan's plan, say what I said above to discredit Biden as someone who should be talking about people hurting and then go back to the sale pitch.

That would be my plan.

DUQ said...

I think Biden will keep attacking Ryan by saying that Romney refuses to endorse his budget. I'm not sure how Ryan counters that, but I hope he's prepared. Any thoughts on what Ryan should say?

Tennessee Jed said...

btw, a bizarre thing happened in my post. I had posted a link on fb about the great scenic restaurants overlooking downtown Pittsburgh from the Mt. Washington neighborhood. Somehow, part of that got embedded in my post here this morning. Weird :(

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, That's actually my guess too. I think Ryan will come across strong and impressive. Biden will spout a bunch of lies that no one will fact check and will remain blatant-gaffe free, and the MSM will call it a draw and the left will call it a huge victory. And I suspect our side will feel a little let down that Biden wasn't destroyed.

And in the end, I doubt this will change anything. The only thing that will change the race from this debate would be a huge gaffe from either side.

tryanmax said...

Oh, I almost forgot. Given the R&R campaign's huge gain with women, I expect birth control to be brought up (most likely by Biden, but possibly as a question) as well as other social issue distractions.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, It's likely that Biden will go on the offensive. The one thing you hear all over the left is that Obama failed to attack, and I'll bet that's the role they give Biden... attack, attack, attack.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, That is strange. I wondered about your link.

T-Rav said...

tryanmax, in case that happens, I would like to see Ryan respond with something like, "We can argue about these social issues all day. But when all's said and done, what matters more to the women of America--that they have these red herrings secure, or that they actually have financial prosperity and the hope of a better future for themselves and their families?" Expand on it, of course, but something along those lines would be a great comeback.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Good point. If Biden can draw Ryan into talking about gays and abortion, he can shift the debate back to ground where Obama can win and away from the economics where Obama is doomed.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, That would be a great comeback. They need to focus on Obama's economic record, that's his weak spot.

tryanmax said...

T-Rav, not only is that a great answer, it's also one I think I can expect from Team R&R. They've been very good at steering the conversation so far and bringing all things back to economic freedom and prosperity. (Really, it's not a difficult tactic, but one has to believe that all things tie to economics.)

T-Rav said...

In more polling news, the famously right-wing PPP now has Romney up 49-47, with a six-point lead among independents and only trailing women by six. Romney also leads by two in Rasmussen's swing-state tracking poll, which is still carrying a few days of pre-debate results.

Individualist said...

Andrew

It might be good to have an article addressing the congressional and senate races. The morning newshound who I suspect is a closet liberal started talking about the polls. while he stopped pressign the Romney is behind meme they switched tack. Evidently although many now support Romney Nelson is 11 points up or Mack or in a dead heat depending on the poll.

So the new meme is it looks like the GOP is not going to win the Senate having trouble in North Dakota. He even mention tighteing in House races though he admitted the Dems have no chance there.

So I wonder what the truth behind all of this is....

T-Rav said...

Andrew and tryanmax, I think it would be a good way of countering the Democrats' identity politics. Make it clear, if you can, that a rising tide lifts all boats, and that talking up birth control, gay marriage, etc. are just distractions trying to keep people within the fold. That doesn't mean all these groups are going to come over, but it should draw enough to make the difference.

Individualist said...

PS the guy did not state the the Dems would keep the Senate he even said with a straight face (I infer as it was radio) that the Dems might actually pick up seats this time around.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, That's true. Team R&R have been really good at steering the conversation and that was what Romney did best with Lehrer, he took the conversation to whatever he wanted to talk about rather than letting Lehrer push him to areas that favored Obama.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, I saw that PPP was drifting in that direction but I never expected them to actually show Romney in the lead. That's a shocker. The kids over at DailyKos must be freaking out!

rlaWTX said...

I've kicked myself for missing the last one, so I am just looking forward to being entertained at this debate. I truly hope that Bidenisms abound!!!!

As for substance, I hope that Ryan's prep team reads today's column here! Great responses/ comebacks!

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, I am not sure what will happen in the Senate. All the polls I see look really bad for the Republicans, but I'm not sure if they are any more accurate than the presidential polls? Right now it looks like the GOP ends up with 50 seats. Although I suspect we will actually get 52 seats when it's all over.

BevfromNYC said...

Wow, Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Beast is P.O'ed!

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/did-obama-just-throw-the-entire-election-away.html

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, I think that's exactly right. The only way to counter identity politics is to let people know that you care about everyone and you want to help everyone on the issues that really matter.

And for the record, let me note again that this is exactly the argument Romney has made throughout in his appeals to women, Hispanics and blacks. He has gone to these groups and told them that he wants to put in place policies to help everyone and this his policies will make their lives better. That is such a better strategy than the strategy Republicans normally use of trying to out-bid the Democrats on Democratic issues.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, I can't imagine a Democratic pick up. But we have gone from Republicans winning 59 seats to somewhere between 53-50. So that's not good.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, Thanks! I think Ryan would do well to listen to our audience! :)

I agree about the Bidenism. I hope they fly fast and furiously. :)

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Things have turned sour in the promised land of Obama. Here's the link: LINK

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, He is furious! He calls the debate a 12% swing and he says this:

Look: I'm trying to rally some morale, but I've never seen a candidate this late in the game, so far ahead, just throw in the towel in the way Obama did last week - throw away almost every single advantage he had with voters and manage to enable his opponent to seem as if he cares about the middle class as much as Obama does. How do you erase that imprinted first image from public consciousness: a president incapable of making a single argument or even a halfway decent closing statement? And after Romney's convincing Etch-A-Sketch, convincing because Obama was incapable of exposing it, Romney is now the centrist candidate, even as he is running to head up the most radical party in the modern era.

DUQ said...

Did anybody see the amazing racism thrown at Stacey Dash when she endorsed Romney? I guess black women aren't supposed to have independent thoughts.

Individualist said...

DUQ

That is really sickening.

tryanmax said...

Mitt Romney to Obama, the DNC, and the MSM: "I've got your October Surprise right here!"

AndrewPrice said...

DUQ, I saw that. It's amazing. It's amazing that these people could say this stuff and then accuse others of being racists. The left is really messed up.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, LOL! Just wait, there will be something. They'll keep trying to find more surprises until something sticks.

I'm starting to wonder if an Iranian attack might not be in the works?

Individualist said...

I wonder what is going on in the Senate races. Are the DNC candidates talking about Obama's polices, running from them....

We need a strong GOP majority to crrect things something we have never had.

For the life of me I can't understand how Nelson could be doing so well... unless the polls are guiding opinion and not the other way around.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, I don't think we're going to get a strong GOP majority. I think we will get a tiny majority. Hopefully, that will be enough.

I don't know what's going on in the Nelson race. I'm not sure what missteps each side may have made or if the polls are biased? That's the problem with these races -- they often revolve around local issues.

Not to mention, if people assume Obama will lose, they may be inclined to vote for the Democrat to maintain a sort of inertia in government.

T-Rav said...

Poor, poor Sullivan. It would be tragic, if it weren't so funny.

AndrewPrice said...

Drudge is laughing at him with a headline: "Sullivan: SOS Obama". LOL!

T-Rav said...

As for the Senate races, all I can say is that it's further proof that the undecided/swing-voter bloc is effectively useless and has to be dragged by one side or the other to get anything done.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, The problem with the Senate is that we have no idea what's really going on in any of the races?

I will note that Linda McMahon is ahead in Connecticut somehow if you believe the polls.

ScyFyterry said...

Drudge has Romney leading in 11 swingstates, though it's not clear if this means as a group or in 11 separate states.

BevfromNYC said...

And now a group of Black faith leaders have formed a coalition and are vowing to pull 25% of the vote from Obama. They will jeopardize their non-profit religious status by campaigning in all of the swing states. Let's hope that it works. At least Obama can't call them racists, but I guess he can call them homophobes. Somehow I don't think they care.

AndrewPrice said...

Terry, I saw Rasmussen's 11 state poll as well and I think it's all of them combined, not 11 individually.

Individualist said...

Evidently Scott is four points up on Warren which if ture would be great news....

I guess her Wompum powder form the Medicine pouch not working.....

maybe it is not the genuine thing...

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I guess it depends on who wins the election if they jeaporadize their non-profit status. The IRS never seems too interested in going after liberal groups like that when Democrats are in the White House... for some "strange" reason.

All in all, I don't think they matter. Obama's problem is that his voters have lost interest in him.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, I am starting to think Scott will win that one. This is going to be a strange election if we win states like Mass and lose states like North Dakota.

T-Rav said...

Hey, that thing you mentioned in the post, about Romney only being down by two in Nevada? Yeah, no. They're TIED.

And also, he's only down by six in Connecticut.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, What's neat about that is that this shows continuing momentum. My numbers are from two days ago. So if they are tied, that means he's added two more points in that time.

That's amazing about Connecticut. If Obama is threatened there, then he's in trouble everywhere!

tryanmax said...

Bev, do you have a link to that story anywhere? I'm very interested in this turn of events. I'm a little more optimistic than most, but I'm starting to think Obama could go down in history as the president that, ironically, broke the Democrat hold on the black vote. If LBJ rolls in his grave, I don't mind.

Anthony said...

Bev,

As I said before, I suspect that group is the equivalent of the Coffee Party (a political party cooked up in a back room). I don't see why a group incorporated 5 seconds ago would be worried about losing their status.

That being said, I will be deeply surprised if black turnout isn't lower than it was in 2008, primarily due to the economy though also in part due to a loss of enthusiasm for Obama among liberals.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, That's a good point to remember too, you never know who these groups are. They could well be just another fake group created for this election.

I would also be surprised if black turnout wasn't down this cycle because there just isn't as much enthusiasm on the left for Obama these days.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I don't think Obama will break the Democratic stranglehold on blacks. I think that will take generations to break, little by little. But if Romney takes office and turns the economy around and they see the effect his policies have, things could begin to change.

tryanmax said...

I used the wrong language. I don't mean the hold will suddenly slip away, but every tide has a turning point and historians are notoriously eager to find such events to point at them. In time, Obama's legacy may be at the point of several arrows.

AndrewPrice said...

I see. And that's a good point. It can't really get much higher, so Obama will probably be seen as the high-water mark. And any fall from here will likely be blamed on him, unless things stay level for many years.

tryanmax said...

Yep, and even if Anthony is correct about this upstart group, it still portends that the shift downward has begun. The likelihood of things staying level seems poor.

Additionally, it's pretty clear that Obama is a Democrat first and a black man somewhere further down the list. It means nothing to me, but it has very profound implications for those who voted for him because of his race. I suppose it illustrates that the Democrat party is all for blacks who "know their place" so to speak.

BevfromNYC said...

Tryanmax -here is the link
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/09/faith-leaders-aim-to-strip-25-percent-of-black-vote-from-obama/

I am not saying they WILL be successful, but the fact that now there are so many Obama-ites that are openly showing opposition and hostility is interesting. He is getting it from all sides like never before. If they had just openly challenged him for the 4+ years, he wouldn't be under seige. Heck, even Big Bird is piling on. He (?) is objecting to being in a Pro-Obama campaign ad because he is Non-political...

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, OOOOOooooh. I read your comment backwards. I thought they planned to deliver 25% of the vote FOR Obama. Now it makes sense.

Thanks for the clarification.

I agree, if they can do that (which I doubt), that would be a rather profound change for the country.

Here's your link: LINK

AndrewPrice said...

tryanamx, I would add that Obama is actually a Democrat second after Chicago crony. I really think that's been the entire focus of his administration, handing out goodies to his Chicago buddies. All the rest is for show.

As for the relationship between Democrats and blacks, I know Anthony disagrees, but I think there is significant pressure on blacks to vote for Democrats -- look at the utterly racist comments hurled at Dash as evidence for that.

BevfromNYC said...

"...but I think there is significant pressure on blacks to vote for Democrats -- look at the utterly racist comments hurled at Dash as evidence for that."

Look at the shockingly hateful comments hurled at ANY Black person who speaks out against Obama in any way! It is the same treatment that women get who do the same thing.

tryanmax said...

This may sound like a bromide, but the Stacey Dash thing actually saddens me.

tryanmax said...

And I agree with Bev, ditto for all similar incidents.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, True. It's all part of the identity politics game. If you are part of a group that "belongs" to the Democrats, then any attempt to leave makes you a traitor and allows that group to attack you in vile racist, sexist, etc. ways that they would never allow against one of their own. In fact, if a conservative said the same things they say, they would not stop until the conservative was fired, ostracized and sent to jail on hate crimes charges.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I don't know that it saddens me because I've seen it so often and so consistently that I know it's coming every time. I'm numb to it at this point.

AndrewPrice said...

As an aside, I recommend this article from Jeff Greenfield: LINK.

What he says is not scientific, but it is insightful and it raises some serious concerns for Obama.

(He also admits some things we've been saying for years, like how late night comedians have been covering for Obama.)

Anthony said...

As for the relationship between Democrats and blacks, I know Anthony disagrees, but I think there is significant pressure on blacks to vote for Democrats -- look at the utterly racist comments hurled at Dash as evidence for that.

-------
*Shrugs* There's preassure from Democrats, but support from Republicans. After losing the primary fight, Artur Davis would have been a non-entity if he hadn't declared his loyalty to the Republican party.

Stacey Dash getting hateful tweets shouldn't happen, but its quite likely that while some of her old fans have turned against her, she has gained a bunch of new fans (prior to Sunday, I doubt a conservative blog in the country had ever bothered to mention Stacey Dash but now she has a bunch of fans among conservatives).

I'm not saying that Davis and Dash don't believe what they say, I'm just pointing out that there are benefits as well as costs to being a black conservative.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, That's true. But the rage typically goes well beyond mere publicity. Look at the minority conservatives who get death threats or have their children threatened.

Moreover, my point isn't that the loss of Dash or Davis to the right is such a big deal, the vitriol is aimed at keeping everyone else in line and keeping them thinking that they better not dare to cross the line or even talk with their friends about crossing the line.

It's the same behavior cults and gangs use to keep their members.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

What is really shocking is Obama thought he had won the debate.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, On the one hand, it is shocking. I always knew when I was winning or when I was losing. But on the other hand, he really is not self-aware.

It should scare the heck out of his supporters that he didn't realize. That's a really bad sign for him being able to improve.

Jon said...

Romney is Reagan incarnate. "There you go again..."

AndrewPrice said...

Jon, I keep waiting for a moment like that and it may be coming. His response today about Obama wasting the week talking about Big Bird was pretty hilarious and biting.

Jon said...

Indeed, desperation.

AndrewPrice said...

Totally. And what's worse, it reeks of desperation. It comes across like he really has nothing else to say when he should be out there talking about how he plans to fix the mess the country is in.

Very poorly thought out plan!

Jon said...

They spent way too much on Sesame Street

Jon said...

Uh, eventually they will get around to his record over the past four years, right?

AndrewPrice said...

The thing is, they don't even need to spend any money on it because they can earn more than enough from the marketing of the characters to cover the costs of production.

AndrewPrice said...

I doubt Obama's going to get around to talking about his record. That's the last thing he wants to talk about.

Jon said...

As a marketer, I am ashamed to see this! (but not surprised)

Jon said...

Sorry, tough to see all of these western European nations throwing fire bombs, while all of this progressive stuff gets tolerated.

Jon said...

Sorry, will refrain

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