I'm going to break the presidential race down, thusly:
● If you live in a red state, congratulations! If you live in a state that voted for McCain or almost voted for him in 2008, rest easy--no way no how will Obama take it, despite any talk you might have heard about Montana or Arizona or something else wavering. All the red states of '08 are going red again, and needless to say, not being able to win an additional state is not a good position for an incumbent, under any circumstances. Plus, Indiana and North Carolina, which just barely broke Obama's way back then, have decisively swung back in the GOP's favor--we may get a double-digit margin of victory from the ol' Hoosier State. 206 electoral votes in the bank for Romney, right there.So far, so good. Worst case scenario, we'll wind up within striking distance of the magic number 270. But we don't want to just be within striking distance, do we?
● The battleground state of Florida? Not such a battleground this time. Everyone remembers the crowing among Dems when Paul Ryan was announced as Romney's VP pick. They could beat the Mediscare drum all they wanted, so they'd be golden in senior-heavy Florida. Right? Well, not so much. Hard to say whether it's disillusionment among suburban voters, swelling support for Romney among Cuban-Americans, or if playing the Medicare/Social Security card really has backfired that much, but the Republican ticket has been consistently ahead by 2 or 3 points in the Sunshine State for weeks now. I guarantee you no one in the Obama campaign or the media (but I repeat myself) will admit it's anything but a toss-up, but we will win Florida on Election Night. 206+29=235.
● Good news for Andrew Price. Our founder's childhood state (Virginia) and current place of residence (Colorado), though close, are trending red. The former we could see coming a few weeks back, when Suffolk Polling, a fairly reputable firm, announced it was stopping surveys there and in NC and FL, as all three were GOP locks. The polls are now starting to reflect that, and the same is happening in Colorado. It'll be close, but look for wins in those two states. 235 plus 13 plus 9 gets us to 257 electoral votes.
● Plan A: Ohio. The Buckeye State is a doozy, no doubt, and I for one am sick and tired of Romney/Ryan having to try and coax it over. As if we haven't all heard the "No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio" line 900 billion times, there's also the fact that the state's unemployment rate is lower than the national average, and it benefited from the auto bailout, so a lot of people there are going to think they're pretty well off under Obama. BUT, the same signs of a rightward drift are evident there as elsewhere, and the polls showing TOTUS up tend to be heavily oversampling Democrats. Plus, early voting so far, while favoring Obama, has done so by a far smaller margin than in '08. The margin of victory for either candidate won't be more than a point or two, but I think it's likely that the nationwide trends will pull Ohio towards Romney in the end.So that's the score. What do I think the final number on November 6 will be? It depends on how optimistic you want to be. Personally, I can't bear the thought of Romney and Ryan not being in the White House after this is done, so I'm going to take the 257 number I mentioned above, add in 4 from New Hampshire, 10 from Wisconsin, and 18 from Ohio, and come up with (interlude for math)--289 electoral votes for the Republican ticket, and 249 for the current occupant at 1600 Pennsylvania. This is a completely arbitrary number, of course; 11 days is still an eternity in a presidential race, and there are a couple of wild cards, like Nevada and Iowa, which will likely be unreadable to the very end. But it's a defensible number. So take it for what it's worth, make up your own predictions if you must, and remember, on November 6, in the event I've gotten this all wrong--stock up on alcohol. Lots and lots of alcohol.
● Plan B: Wisconsin-New Hampshire-Iowa. The Romney campaign has been putting increasing attention into Wisconsin and Iowa of late. Ryan will obviously be doing a lot of stumping in his home state, Obama's Super PACs are dumping money back into the state (which they wouldn't do if they thought the state was secure), and Romney will be giving a major economic speech in Iowa today. Plus, New Hampshire, where Mitt has obvious roots, has been trending red in the polls lately. They haven't been showing that kind of movement in the other two states, but after the failed Walker recall this summer, I'm optimistic that the GOP's ground game will pull off the upset in Wisconsin, at least, and combine that with New Hampshire to put us over the top if Ohio fails. In fact, I personally would like nothing better than for us to win without Ohio and then stop treating that state as the Holy Grail of politics.
● Longshots. There's Michigan and there's Pennsylvania, the Great White Whales of the Republican Party. Obama's up in both states, and has been for a while, but the margin has been narrowing lately. Realistically, there is probably no scenario in which either of these states is the one to put us over the top. But if we see a major shift nationwide before Election Day and Romney starts taking all the states I've mentioned, then we're talking landslide victory, in which one or both of these could be swept along.
90 comments:
And kudos to Andrew for throwing up the pic to accompany this, which I somehow forgot all about while putting this together and then remembered about a minute after it published. Maybe you should take what I have to say with several grains of salt.
"My advise to you is to start drinking heavily." - Bluto
Hurricane devastates east coast resulting in MSM 24/7 blaming "global warming" and "big oil".
Obama loses but wins the popular vote - riots ensue. Reid remains majority leader - forcing Romney administration from accomplishing any tea party agenda - economy doesn't recover quickly due to Obamacare still hanging over businesses even with "50 state" exemption but no repeal. News media goes "Bush" on Romney starting at swearing in ceremony. Peace marches and war death counts resume. Mid terms lose house to 'crats. Romney administration proposes new "health care reform law". Romney loses to Bill and Hill as Tea Party splits off from Republicans. Train loads of troops occupy the major cities. Major businessmen, engineers, doctors and plumbers begin disappearing to someplace in Canada.......
a nice analysis, Rav. That said, I have this feeling that with many polls, Obama's numbers are still overstated so that the lead is larger than it appears. I guess, I wouldn't be surprised if Romney is not actually ahead in Pennsylvania.
I don't pay much attention to polls, but websites like the Huffington Post and Politico have of late featured many articles from liberals/Democrats steeling themselves for a loss.
Never underestimate the power of technology (voting machines) to provide the slight margin of victory O needs to win these battleground states. All it takes is a slight....very slight...% of votes to win a state. So, remember the stories from Nevada in 2010 when voters there said they hit the Repub button and their result came back Dem? And the one already in NC with the same result?
Program in a slight Dem win in most of the voting machines and voila! "Obama edges Romney in __________"
Look at results in Venezuela recently......Exit polls showed Chavez' challenger with large win. Surprisingly, Chavez came out ahead in the vote count!
I am not confident at all that the same would not happen here.
T-Rav
As a florida residetn who has lived in Naples, Daytona, Jacksonville, Gainesville, Miami, and Deerfield Beach I can tell you that there might be one democrat enclave that will waiver.
The huge New York transplant Jewish population in Boca Raton. while extremely hard left, communist even they do support Israel and a few might switch their vote or stay home. That has to be having an effect on the polling numbers down here.
BTW in Florida you are a Native (.001% of the population), a South Georgian (10% of the population), an immigrant (30% of the population), a transplant (45%) of the population or a toruist (someone who lives somewhere else most of the year) (14.999%) of the population.
In quasi-related news: Gloria Allred was denied her October surprise. What's more, the judge on the case issued probably the worst possible (or at least most insulting) ruling for her client, Maureen Sullivan-Stemberg (ex-wife of Staples founder Tom Stemberg): Mitt Romney's testimony in the Sullivan divorce case can go public, but the gag stays on Maureen. The Boston Globe, Gloria's partner in crime, took the ruling, vacated their petition, and happily dumped Allred on her @$$. (No need to stay aboard a trainwreck.) Gloria angrily accused The Globe of a "double-cross"; presumably her face was all red (yeah, I went there).
So what was Mitt's juicy testimony? It seems he testified to the value of Staples two years before it went public. He guessed low. *yawn* Maybe team 0bama can twist that into the "betting against America" meme. But I doubt it.
Excellent breakdown T-Rav! I'm very hopefully because I think that as you see states like Colorado shift to the right, I think the others are following. This won't be just an isolated state or two that shifts.
tryanmax, That's hilarious. Allred really is the type of lawyer who makes all lawyers look bad and this sounds like her typical BS. I'm just surprised she hasn't found ten women who claim that Romney raped them.
This seems a bit like a football pool. That being the case, put me down for the over/under - 300+ Romney.
And I will make another STUNNING prediction. I think that Obama will win California - but not by all that much. Nobody is polling California and there aren't that many ads. The Commander-in-Chief comes to SoCal and snarls traffic so that he can drag the sack with the Hollywood crowd (freak show), but he doesn't speak to his adoring masses here.
The only bumper stickers I see on the vast freeway network are Romney/Ryan. And while that is unscientific, there is something to that. There is not much enthusiasm in California for Obama. Outside the urban hell holes and the two sparsely populated marijuana growing counties, the state is Republican. And absent a strong effort to get the inner city people (racial code word) and students (non-racial code word) to vote, it's POSSIBLE though unlikely that California will go for Romney.
I want to respond to LL's comment by stating that I firmly believe all the states should do what Maine and Nebraska (my home) do, and that is to award the electoral college votes according to congressional districts. Now, there are many sound arguments for this method, but none more compelling than the fact that North Atlantic lobster and Midwest corn fed beef are two of the world's most perfect foods, improved only by being eaten in combination (surf and turf). These all-American delicacies no-so-coincidentally come chiefly and respectively from... Maine and Nebraska. Ergo, we know what we're talking about when it comes to the vote. Don't question it. Your stomach knows what's right.
I will be holding my breath until Nov. 7 and if I pass out, I will take a big swig from the bottle of vodka sitting next to me...
LL - I am seeing (or NOT seeing) the same thing in NY. I am surprised at the lack of open support for Obama. I have only seen one or two buttons. Of course, I haven't seen any buttons for Romney. I put a Romney/Ryan bumper sticker in my living room window that hasn't been torched yet. We have the same problem with Obama snarling up afternoon rush hour weekly as he attends his 10000000 fundraiser in NYC. (Where is all this money coming from and why aren't they using it to help the poor?) I think that NY will go Obama, but not by much too. Same for NJ and CT. Obama has completely ignored NJ, btw. Not a bright thing to do with Christie bellowing from Trenton for Romney. He's very loud.
BTW - Cuomo hasn't exactly been endorsing Obama. He hasn't NOT endorsed him either. He's been eerily silent and sticking to state political campaigns. Though since so many Dems local and state politicians have been arrested lately, it must be hard for him to decide who to endorse...
Yikes K. That's a scary scenario if I ever heard one. Happily, I don't think things will turn out that way, starting with the fact that the hurricane will likely be a lot less than people make it out to be. And if Obama does win the popular vote, who cares? It's the electoral vote that matters.
Thanks Jed! I have no doubt Obama's support is being overstated by most of the polls. In fact, a three-week Gallup survey pegged the balance in party ID as D+0.2. Most polls are still going D+4 or above.
I'm not as optimistic as you about states like Pennsylvania, which have gone a long time without voting Republican. But it's possible, especially with the Senate race there heating up.
tyranmax and LL too
If California was not a winner take all state then the Republicans must win Florida and Ohio meme would be out the window. As a matter of fact if all states awarded the electoral college according to congressional district then Dems might be in Deep Kimchi as the Korean wife of one of my Dad's Air force buddies used to say.
Look at the red on that map. If many of these states were not winner take all then the GOP would have a great advantage in the Congressional districts because there simply is more of them that are red.
California and Florida are great examples. roughly less than 20% of the land mass are blue. While this is more populous in Florida this is 60% GOP and 40% Dem and California it is probably 40 GOP - 60 DNC or 20-70 on the outside. Dems would have a huge disadvantage with this I think. To much of the map is our side. They only have the Urban centers.
Anthony, I assume nothing, but it seems to me this is a reversal of the run-up to the '08 election. Then, you had the GOP insiders sinking into despair and privately lowering expectations, while Obama's camp was more and more upbeat and self-confident, and it showed. It's not quite a full reversal, because the Dems do have some energy left, but they're verging more and more into panic and desperation, and Romney's campaign is clearly the more energetic of the two.
Patriot, not to mention the 100% support for Obama among dead people. :-/
It's going to come down to GOTV and poll watching, I think. Realistically speaking, there's only a certain amount by which election results can be fudged; if Obama were to suddenly "carry" a state like Tennessee, everyone would know something was up. Nevada, on the other hand (which I maintain Reid stole in 2010), is a different story. The GOP had better be ready.
your keyboard to God's ears...
TOTUS winning scares the pea-wadden out of me!
(no, I do not know what pea-wadden is, I just know it's scared. Gotta love southern/Texas phrases...)
Indi, I yield to your superior knowledge of the Sunshine State. :-)
I think it's a mix of suppressed Democrat turnout, a shift towards Romney in swing areas like the Tampa metro, and the fact that Mediscare didn't work nearly as well on seniors as Obama and Co. thought it would. I figure if counties like Hillsborough and Volusia swing GOP on Election Night, it'll be all over.
Bev and LL, I see the same thing. I've been to Denver (very liberal) several times lately, but have only seen maybe 1-2 Obama bumperstickers in total! And we're supposed to be a battleground state.
tryanmax, it really sucks when you try to launch an October surprise on someone and they release exonerating facts, doesn't it? :-)
I keep hoping that things like this will destroy Allred's last shred of credibility. But I guess she's like a bad penny--she looks like old copper and keeps turning up.
Thanks Andrew! I won't rest easy at all until or unless I hear those magic words "The AP can now project that Mitt Romney will be the 45th President of the United States." But there's a definite shift occurring, and the polls are reflecting it.
And no sooner have I put out my suggestions about Plan B and why Romney can win Wisconsin, than Rasmussen releases a new poll showing the state tied. (Doin' the Snoopy Dance...)
Here is a CNN Electoral map to play with.
<a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground>LINK</a>
Kind of fun. Send states into Obama's or Romney's camp and see who wins and by how much.
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Also, what about the Senate? Which way will it go?
T-Rav
Has anyone done a poll of Jewish voters to determine how Obama is doing with them.
His foreign policy is essentially to apologize to the enemies of Israel and snub their leaders.
I know there is supposed to be a contingent of ultra liberal Jewish atheists who want Israel to go away but I doubt that is the desire of the average Jewish person that attends temple.
I'd be really interested to see how much of a monopoly the DNC still holds over that community.
Boca Raton is a big bulwark for the Democrats in South Florida. Lot of the DNC strength in South Florida comes from the Jewish Block of voters because much of the Hispanic population are Cuban or Venezuelan nationals kicked out by Chavez. Since the anti-Israel meme is becoming a theme for the Progressives this might be something that cracks long term instead of just this election.
Indi - They actually are not ultra LIBERAL Jewish atheists, they are ultra Orthodox very religious Jews who believe the Israel can only exist after the coming of the Messiah which has not happened yet.
Of course, there Jewish athiests, a catagory that confounds me, that want are anti Israel just to be contrarians.
OT - Did you hear the one about Algore's Current TV station going under? He's trying to sell it. Anyone want to go in halfsies on Commentarama TV?
Bev, How cool would that be if we started Commentarama TV! I'll bet we'd be a bigger success than Algore!
Bev, I got $14.52 on me. Do you think we can talk him down to $25? I need a couple bucks for lunch.
Bev, I've got a buck fifty...
T-Rav: "she looks like old copper" There's no reason to insult the Statue of Liberty like that!!!
Kit, that's a fun link!!!
I think looking at two recent campaign ads might help us see who is really winning.
Here is a Romney ad: "Momentum"
Here is an Obama ad: "Your First Time"
Yeah. . .
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Which way does everyone think the Senate will go? Will we grab it? Or will Todd "I flunked biology" Akin have screwed us over?
We'll need 4 seats to win a 51-49 majority and Rasmussen has 5 (MT, WI, PA, VA, CT) as too close to call. I'm still hoping we can grab, just maybe, Florida and Ohio (unlikely). Warren has 52-47 lead so it looks like she wil win.
So, what say you, Commenters of Commentarama?
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T-Rav, I hope you are right. This is encouraging, but I'm still biting my nails.
LL, I like evidence such as bumper stickers, but I'm distrustful of it. As you say, it's highly unscientific, and I remember a lot of the same things being said in 2010, in races we ended up losing and not that closely either.
If Romney cuts into Obama's expected lead in California, that would certainly be a nice bit of schadenfreude. But do I think for a second he'll actually take the state, or even come that close to it? No.
Bev, I'll be very curious to see what happens in Jersey and Connecticut. I doubt Obama will lose either, but the margin should be close enough to make it interesting. And given the heated Senate race in Connecticut, I'm hoping there's enough GOP turnout to pull it off for McMahon. We'll see.
Indi and tryanmax, it's a nice idea when your candidate stands to gain from it, but really, if we're going to make a change like that, we might as well scrap the Electoral College altogether. Personally, I'd rather not change the system, as it's one of the few remaining vestiges of federalism. Not that Nebraska and Maine can't keep their wacky systems, of course.
rla, I'm from rural southern Missouri. We never used the phrase "pea-wadden," but I have a pretty good idea what it means. :-) (We were always partial to the use of "cotton-pickin'".)
I like your math T-Rav! I have to admit, I've been going between giddy and despondent lately.
I'd also like to comment on what I've seen in Pennsylvania (anecdotal, of course.) I literally live in the center of Pittsburgh and am surrounded by the "enemy". :-) In 2008, the city was saturated with Obama signs. This year, there are hardly any, and I mean you really have look hard to find any. My parents live in rural PA, and in 2008, I was frightened by the number of Obama sings I saw there--in hardcore "red" country. This year, the Obama signs have been replaced with the "Stop the WAR ON COAL--Fire Obama" signs. They're everywhere. I think Pennsylvania as a coal state should not be underestimated. The candidate running against Bob Casey (Tom Smith) is a coal guy. And a month ago, Casey was not even running a campaign. That's how confident they were. Also don't forget that we narrowly elected the very conservative Pat Toomey in 2010. As you say, we're the proverbial Great White Whale and it could be like Lucy pulling out the football again, but there's a much better chance this time around.
Kit, here's your link, I hope: LINK
I have no idea about the Senate, and frankly, I'm more nervous about that than I am about the White House. If Romney wins, we only need 50 seats; if Obama wins, we'd need 51. I'd have to look at those faces a bit more closely--but honestly, I'm afraid to. :-(
T-Rav, We really 51 either way. At 50, the committee assignments would be split and that means nothing will happen because nothing will get out of committee.
Pitts, I have heard rumors that we may win the state (both at the White House and Senate levels). I want to believe it's true, but I'm not holding my breath.
T-Rav, say what you will, but Surf and Turf never lies. I think the bumper sticker poll is interesting b/c here in Omaha, I'm seeing a LOT of Obama bumper stickers. Granted, this is the district that went blue in '08, though it's projected to go back to the GOP this year. Maybe being outnumbered amps up the crazy.
IDK about the Senate. I still don't believe that Todd Akin's remarks are as damaging as they've been portrayed. Where are the ripples? But he'll make a handy scapegoat if the GOP doesn't take a majority. As of today, he's polling neck-and-neck w/ McCaskill, contrary to popular wisdom of a couple months ago. He'd have a handy lead if the RNC hadn't cut him off. The only person besides the self-immolating right-wingers still harping on Akin is the increasingly irrelevant Tina Fey making bizarre cracks about $2 haircuts. I'm just as confused as you are.
I'm pretty confident Romney will win the White House, its the Senate that has me nervous. We'll need it to repeal Obamacare.
Pittsburgh Enigma, I like your optimism but PA is the ultimate tease for Republicans. Always tempting us but never going all the way. So I'm betting it will go Obama. (Though if it goes Romney, I'll be jumping up and down)
Fingers crossed for at least a 4-seat win in the Senate.
Here's my map: LINK
I split the ME and NE votes just for fun, but they offset anyway. My scenario does not require OH, NH, PA, or IA, but it relies on Ryan pulling in WI, as well as wins in CO, FL, NV, and VA. Thoughts?
tryanmax, I think that's likely actually. Also, give Romney New Hampshire, which I think he will get, and he doesn't need Nevada.
Tyranmax, Interesting.
For some reference, here is the Real Clear Politics map. Take a look and what do you all think?
LINK
Tyranmax,
I took your map and gave Romney OH, NH, and IA. That gives him 301 electoral votes.
Not as good as Obama's wins in 2008 (359) but pretty good nonetheless.
Indi, the last poll of Jewish voters I saw had significantly reduced support for Obama. I don't know how many of them will throw support to Romney, but I suspect a good many of them will stay home--especially after Obama's non-pledge of support for Israel in the last debate.
And let's not forget last year's special election in NY-9, which was won partly by Jewish support for the Republican candidate.
If we buy Current TV, I suggest we rehire Olbermann. For, like, janitorial services or something.
I think I have a nickel or two in my wallet. What are we up to? Sixteen dollars and change?
rla, I would never insult the good Lady Liberty! As far as I know, Ms. Allred is still a dead-brownish hue, and has not oxidized enough to turn green. If she has, then I retract my insult. :-)
tryanmax, whatever you say, dude. Whatever you say. :-)
I don't know about our Senate race. What you have to understand is that a lot of Missourians HATE McCaskill. There's no way she's going to shake off her reputation as an Obama lapdog, so if she wins, it'll be because a majority of people saw Akin as even worse. My suspicion is that the outcome will be tied to Romney's margin of victory here. If he wins the state by double digits (which is not at all impossible), there's a good chance Akin will win. But McCaskill has been raining attack ads for the past few weeks, which you can read as either insecurity or insurance. I really don't know.
Thanks P.E.! I really hope I'm wrong about Pennsylvania; I would like nothing better than for that state to go all the way red and make liberals' heads explode. I'm hedging my bets for now, given the political history of the state. But given Toomey's victory in the Senate race and Smith's inching up in the polls, I won't count it out. I've pulled up the '08 election maps, marked certain counties to watch for, and hopefully we can gauge how things will turn out.
Andrew and tryanmax, I'm fairly optimistic about New Hampshire as well. Like I said in my article, what I'm really hoping for is that we'll get all the leaning states, take Wisconsin and New Hampshire, and then give Ohio a cheerful "f**k you" because we won't need it anymore.
Incidentally, I wouldn't count out Maine's 2nd Congressional District. That part of the state leans Republican, and should do so even more this year. Watch out for those northern and upstate counties on your election map.
ellen, I'll be biting my nails right down to the moment the race is called, that's for sure. (sigh) And probably drinking.
Kit, I'm not sure what to make of the RCP map. They've put so many states in the toss-up, it's practically worthless. Especially when you consider Obama's 201 to Romney's 191 in Leans/Likely votes.
As to NH, I didn't leave them out for any particular reason. I just didn't need them after I placed the states I have more knowledge of. I have a really hard time considering NV a toss-up. Obama has been particularly hard on that state. (Though not as bad as AZ.) The only thing I can figure is that folks in the entertainment and hospitality industries tend to lean left.
This is funny
there is a guy at work who is a GOP supporter that has one bumper sticker on his car only.
It is an Obama sticker that is upside down.
It is there in the same vein that flags are flags are flown upside down when a ship is in distress.
I had to laugh.
T-Rav, your apology is accepted on behalf of Lady Liberty... as for Election Night, I have a meeting at school from 4:30-6pm, then I will head home and stayed glued to the tube until the race is called. Nail-biting and Commentaramaing guaranteed... Booze is a possibility...
I am thinking of actually requesting 11/7 as a vacation day - to recover from ecstatic celebrating or the deepest depths of despair...
tryanmax, after what went down in Nevada last time, I'm positive that the Dems will do anything and everything to steal that race. Besides, I haven't seen any poll that has Romney up there, though he has been closing the gap. It can certainly flip, but it's way down on my list.
Indi, points to your co-worker for spunk and ingenuity. :-)
rla, I fortunately have Tuesdays off, so I will be spending that day stocking up, doing some map scouring, and preparing. And praying. Unfortunately, I will have to show up in class the next day, but it should be interesting to note how my liberal classmates will take a Romney victory, should that happen.
This should make you more depressed. Ohio could "go Florida" on us, leaving us without an answer for a while. I hope we grab enough states to win without Ohio.
LINK
"Unfortunately, I will have to show up in class the next day, but it should be interesting to note how my liberal classmates will take a Romney victory, should that happen."
4 years ago there was some raucous behavior at the college I attend.
I wonder what will happen this year. . .
Kit:
I think it will go like this.
"We are not going to live in his Mormon Theocracy. We are doomed!"
Should take roughly four hours for that meme to develop in the nuthouses of the left.
Indi, you give them 4 hours? I think they've already got the placards printed up...
This whole thing is ridiculous. He can’t do math but wants to support Sesame Street. If he watched Sesame Street he’d learn how to do math! What did he learn in that Ivy League college? If he cannot do X(second power)-4=0 this is a scary thought. This is basic algebra. No wonder he thinks ‘you didn’t build that’. He couldn’t have built it if he does not understand geometry! What’s going on with this guy!
Kit, I remember on Election Night in '08, the people at my college were chanting almost angrily, as though it were more important they'd beaten the white guy than anything else. Which may well have been the case.
Ohio...yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if it screws everyone over by taking so long. Have I mentioned I really don't like that state?
rla and Indi, yeah, I give it about four minutes, not four hours. If things change and the Left starts thinking they'll lose, they may even throw that out as a last-ditch effort pre-election.
awww, T-Rav, don't be hatin' on OIHO!!!
ACG, "ridiculous" is a pretty good way to sum Obama up, isn't it? ;-)
That's one of the things about this image Obama has built up: that he's so intelligent and "cerebral." I would have granted him technical intelligence but not real-world intelligence, and now it seems like even the former is above his level.
Q: What's round on both ends and stupid in the middle?
tryanmax, I know the answer to that one!
rla, if they don't care that the four letters in their state's name get misspelled, why should I care about them? Groan.
Woo-hoo from a Hoosier to hear that about my state. I don't venture out very often, so signs, and bumperstickers aren't noticed much. So far, none of my neighbors have anything out yet.
Ok, here I go. I predict a massive landslide Romney victory. 47-48 states. Romney's internal polling is going very well. You can see it on his face. Also the Benghazi issue is about to explode as we find out that Obama did not do his duty to send in an extraction team to try to get the ambassador out. Look for more OS the chain in command to leak the real story.
Oh come on Koshcat, don't you know that Obama inherited that chain of command? And that embassy? And Libya? This was all Bush's fault.
I agree about Romney, you can see the HUGE positive vibe in the way he's acting. He knows he's winning. And Obama has changed strategy. He's trying very hard now to be respectful to Romney in his ads while presenting his own (worthless) plan as something new.
Jen, I thought you would like it. :-) For the presidential election, Indiana looks good enough that RCP has moved it all the way past "Lean Romney" to "Likely Romney" (as it has with Missouri). No worries there. Now the Senate race....
Koshcat, while I don't predict 47-48 states, I do hear a lot of people saying that we're in a situation a la 1980 where there are a lot of undecideds right up to the election, who then break for the challenger, resulting in a landslide win. I hope that's what we'll see this time.
And Romney does look confident. One sign of that is he's going to be doing events in Wisconsin starting next week, which, as I said, is moving into a tie. IN+NC+FL+VA+CO+WI+NH= win.
T-Rav and Koshcat - re: 47-48 states for Romney
What about States 49 to 60? You know, those other 11 states that Obama thinks he has?
And as an addendum to that last post, you may have noticed that Romney's just made ad buys in Minnesota. Spoiler alert: He's not doing it because he thinks he'll win Minnesota. I mean, Ronald Reagan didn't win that state. No, he's doing it for the Twin Cities and Duluth media markets, which reach right over into--western Wisconsin, the swing counties Romney has to have to win the state. If it's not Ohio, it's holding Colorado and gaining in Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
I'm about to make a real big prediction for me, considering how I feel about Iowegians in general. I'm now actually thinking Iowa could go for Romney. I know, I know. I can't believe I'm saying it either. But don't fear, I'm still thoroughly convinced that my elder relatives will remain steadfast to the Democrat president. (No matter what color his skin is.)
Bev, Don't be silly. Everyone knows there are only 57 states.
tryanmax, I think Iowa will go for Romney. So will New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina. I want to believe in Wisconsin, but can't say for sure... strange state.
I think he also wins Ohio by 0.8%, but I'm not sure of that one.
Bev, as Andrew said, there are 57 states, not 60, so that would be only nine states not included. Duh.
(Although, if the President is confessing he doesn't know basic algebra, I don't see why the rest of us should trouble ourselves with it.)
Andrew and tryanmax, the polls do seem to be shifting back toward Romney just a bit in Iowa. I'm hopeful that if Wisconsin goes (I'm really harping on this today, aren't I?), there'll be just enough spillover effect in the Democratic eastern counties to swing Iowa over.
One thing about Ohio: The early voting there is being taken as a sign that the state will go for Obama again. Keep in mind, though, that these are voters who were going to vote Dem regardless, so it makes no difference, in and of itself, in the final total. What matters is the skew among the 80% of Ohioans who haven't voted yet. And keep in mind, Romney has a strong lead among independents, and never has a presidential candidate won that group and lost the state.
T-Rav, You remind me of Michael Barone and his amazingly trivial, yet truly insightful knowledge.... "but keep in mind that no candidate who has carried Bumfarge County has ever lost Ohio and Romney is up by 17% among swing moms in Bumfarge." ;)
I think what will ultimately swing Ohio (unless the polls are way wrong) will be black turnout. If they turn out in huge numbers in Cleveland, then Obama wins. If they don't, then he loses. I think that apart from them, the state is very evenly divided.
Andrew, did I deserve that? Fine, I'll just keep my pithy and insightful comments to myself. Snarl.
Hey, that's a compliment! Barone really has an amazing insight into the inner workings go elections. He's the guy who can tell you what counties/districts matter and why they can or can't call a state because of particular counties.
Nice breakdown T-Rav!
Having already predicted a landslide for RR, it's still interesting to learn what states are close and which ones only appear to be close because of D+ whatever it takes polling.
PS- I don't think there was a lot of voters in 1980 that made up their minds at the last minute.
I think what happened was this:
The leftwing media in those day was completely in control of the information flow.
They convinced themselves that the election would be close by believing their own D+ oversampled polls, giving the edge to Carter.
The voters OTOH were so sick of 4 years of Carter they had other plans, ergo the Reagan landslide that the media never saw coming.
I'm convinced we're seeing a repeat of history, except that Obama is far worse than Carter was.
And the media doesn't have complete control of the information flow anymore, plus they hafta be accountable when they lie nowadays (except MSNBC but no one except for the hard left watches them).
I don't predict as big of a landslide as Reagan got because although the majority of voters are still moderate to conservative, I don't think we have as many conservatives now (percentagewise) as we had in 1980.
Still, I think Romney will exceed all of the old media's expectations and win by an "unexpected" margin.
Which will once again make their political
anal-ysts look like the complete fools they really are. :^)
Ben, that would be sweet. I just hate counting my chickens before the fat lady sings--or hatching them before it's over--or whatever it is. I forget. :-)
Seriously, though, I have no idea whether Republican support is being understated (very possible) or there's going to be a late break for Romney (also possible). I'm hopeful, but I also worry if we're being set up for a loss. Fingers crossed.
T-Rav, I guess we're kinda in the same boat as far as the Senate is concerned. Just an FYI, my sister lives in your state. She really hasn't said much about the Senate race there.
T-Rav, I like to say "It ain't over, 'til it's over, and it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings".
Jen, is that JJ? Or am I off?
Yeah, we seem saddled with candidates who like to stick their feet in their mouths, don't we? Although, the most recent polls have had Akin moving back into a statistical tie with McCaskill. There's still a chance both our people will win. It all depends on turnout, especially here, I think.
T-Rav, it's Jen in IN, and JJ in MO. I really don't care what stupid s**t they said, I want the senate to be back in our control, and I think their comments aren't important. I won't be able to explain why I think that because I would ramble on, and probably not make any sense.
I found something my sister sent to me some years ago, and it has a soldier holding a big cup and says: "How about a nice big cup of shut the f**k up. Think before you say something stupid". Highly appropriate don't you think?
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