By Tryanmax
Trump getting impeached is pretty much a foregone conclusion if the Democrats get a simple House majority at any point in his presidency. That in itself illustrates just how meaningless the notion is, politically speaking. Obviously, Trump hasn’t done anything impeachable yet, not having taken office, so the Democrats have basically announced that they're planning a fishing expedition. I don’t think it will work out like they expect.
First, let me remind you that impeachment doesn’t automatically remove a president from office. Neither of the two presidents who were impeached, Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton, were removed from office, and Nixon resigned before he could be impeached. Democrats seem to forget this, so right away you know there will be disappointment when they rediscover that impeachment is merely Step 1.
But let’s talk about how an impeachment might occur. As far back as April, there was speculation that Trump could be impeached on day one of his presidency if Trump University were ruled to be fraudulent. Obviously, that has been diffused, so now Democrats look like they have their eyes set on conflicts of interest. I say “eyes set” but, if the pundit chatter is accurate, there isn’t much to set eyes on. There appears to be tremendous gray area around conflicts of interest in regards to POTUS. In other words, Trump's enemies are shuffling through uncharted territory in an attempt to get him. That’s a difficult proposition.
Trump’s position isn’t without risk, either. If conflict of interest rules that apply to lower offices are ultimately applied to the presidency, Trump could face impeachment, expulsion or, if he means to maintain the presidency, some amount of damage to his business and legacy. So why would Trump put himself in such a position? Well, if he succeeds in keeping the presidency AND his business in the manner he desires, it could establish a precedent that might lower a major barrier discouraging successful private citizens from entering public office. For those of us who believe the political sphere could use more business sense, that would be a great service to the nation.
If that is the path he is taking, Trump does have some advantages. He has a Republican House and Senate for at least two years. If nothing else, this keeps impeachment proceedings at bay for that long. If Obamacare can be passed in such a timeframe, surely some legislation clearing up the murkiness surrounding conflicts of interest could be hammered out. Trump has a firewall in the form of Mike Pence, a lockstep Republican who few Democrats would wish to see in the White House. That might extend his impeachment-proofing another couple of years. Also, Trump has the opportunity to nominate to the Supreme Court in his first year, so if he did end up before them, he could have at least one judge who is open to the idea that conflicts of interest laws shouldn’t be interpreted so as to prevent qualified, successful private citizens from entering public service.
Trump didn’t campaign on conflicts of interest issues, so I have no way of knowing if any of this speculation holds merit. I do know that this is a contest Trump didn’t have to enter. That makes it seem like he wants this battle. If you have any different ideas why Trump might pick this fight, let me know.
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