Thursday, December 29, 2016


With the New Year upon us, it's time for some predictions.

● Trump is going to do a much better job than expected and will have surprisingly good approval ratings by summer. The economy will recover. The foreign world will calm down. The Dems will try desperately to claim that this was all Obama's doing while pulling their hair out. HATE will become the new black.

● The Dems will try to block everything. The lesson they think they learned from the Republicans was to block everything and you will become popular. They have misunderstood this badly. I don't think people will respond well to their attempts at sabotage and resistance. They really are kidding themselves if they think the public will be with them.

● The Patriots win the Super Bowl.

● Angela Merkle will be unseated in Germany, but I don't think anything will change with their immigration policies.

● The Republicans will not be able to repeal Obamacare because the CBO will undercut them. They will instead start to tinker at the edges.

● I'm starting to suspect there will be a brief shooting war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

● Homelessness, AIDS and poverty will return in the news.

Thoughts? Additions?

Finally, Scott has his yearly "Where were you?" film article. Go check it out.


ArgentGale said...

1. I hope you're right, but that does seem to be the way that Trump is trending now that he's in serious businessman mode. I'm going to retain some skepticism about him until I see some action but on the whole I'm cautiously optimistic.

1 continued and 2. I agree that the Democrats and the left aren't even close to burning out on their tantrum. I don't see this ending well for any of them, especially the next time there's a riot, the college safe spacers do something especially outrageous, or Hollywood pushes its customers too far, but that seems like another topic for another time.

3 and 4. I don't follow the NFL so no opinion on the Super Bowl but I do agree that Merkel's overly lax immigration policy has started to have consequences. But like you said I don't see any serious changes happening. The more they let this go on, though, and the worse and more desperate people get, the worse the endgame will be.

5. Unfortunate, but unsurprising. The Washington establishment seems determined to saddle all of us with this crapfest no matter what. How do you suspect that the CBO would do this, though? I'm a bit hazy on how they affect legislation.

6 and 7. Not unlikely on the Middle East and of course on the media. We won't be allowed to see anything nice from them until the Democrats get the White House and Congress. Joy of joys...

- Daniel

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, Trump has done some very impressive things. Projecting forward, it seems we are about to enter an age of relative peace, private-sector-led growing prosperity, and general consensus in politics.

That said, the left is determined to destroy him. They did it to Bush in 2000 and then again after 2001. They think we did it to Clinton, Obama and Clinton. And they think that shutting things down and destroying things is what will give them what they want.

They have, however, misread the American people. The smarter ones (the non-drones) are even starting to get that their attitude is turning people off.

Merkel has been surprisingly rigid on immigration in the face of tremendous anger. It is now costing her party and I think she may find herself tossed out and her party coming in third.

I'll talk about the CBO thing in the future, but it's going to be hard to undo because of bad assumptions. It's also going to be impossible to keep though. So disaster looms. It's going to take a clever solution to undo it.

The Saudi v. Iran thing seems to be building speed. That's going to be interesting because it will bring us in if it lasts more than a few days.

AndrewPrice said...

BTW, We won our war against the bike lane! Ha ha! The city surrendered.

ArgentGale said...

That would definitely be a nice change, and definitely what we need. It's just that the problem is, as has been said repeatedly here, that the left views anyone who isn't with them as subhuman and deserving only of their full wrath. Like you I've seen a few point out the problems (Glenn Greenwald's been articulate about it, and while Bill Maher is still bottom of the barrel he seems to get it too) but right now they're too high on outrage and smug to listen and I have no idea when they're finally going to flame out.

This also makes me wonder what's going to happen to the left's general institutions now that they've taken so much damage and they're up against someone who isn't afraid to use their own weapons against them in Trump. Electorally it's not hard to imagine some blue states trending purple and purple trending red if Trump pursues a smart agenda and sells it accordingly but I'm wondering more about academia and entertainment. I'm sure the safe spacers, witch hunters, and other loud radicals and the staff that kowtows to them have damaged the public's perception of some of these institutions (like the enrollment decline at Mizzou) but what's next for them? I'm not sure that I see conservatives looking for opportunities to take advantage of this. What exactly they could do is another matter altogether, though, and my brain's misfiring at the moment.

As for entertainment, between the contempt the celebrities have for the public, tendency to propagandize during Republican presidencies, and general crappy business practices (I'm less familiar with them in movies and TV, but heavy-handed DRM, microtransactions, and obvious cash grab DLC packages are all teeth-grinding headaches for gamers) it feels like something has to give soon. Trouble is I'm just not sure what that something is, when it's going to happen, or what's going to come of it. Like I said, though, this is probably worth a whole new thread itself.

Back to Merkel, she has, and I agree that she's going to suffer some losses for it. I know it's not an original observation but the common people everywhere seem to be getting increasingly tired of being lectured by the elites and being told that their concerns are only isms and phobias and don't matter and we're ending up with things like Brexit and Trump because of it. I'm guessing that the Germans are going to be pretty unhappy if Merkel's successor doesn't carry out any substantial changes. Interesting times indeed.

Sounds good on the CBO article and interesting note on the Middle East. Somehow I can just see that getting mucked up just in time for for Obama to pass the buck to Trump. Well, at least the new year won't be starting with a whimper!

- Daniel

ArgentGale said...

And congratulations on the bike lane victory! At least you were able to restore a bit of sanity to your corner of CO.

Anthony said...

I think like pretty much all modern presidents Trump's first year approval ratings will be strong and the opposition will harm itself by dying on hills no one cares about and going after his family.

I think we are going to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and that coupled with Obama's backstab pushes more (but not most) Jews into the Republican column.

As a Redskins fan I just want anyone but Dallas to win the Super Bowl :).

No idea what specifically is going to happen in the Middle East, but it will continue to be a bloody mess.

BevfromNYC said...

First of all, I never knew I was surrounded by such Cowboy-haters. I am not sure that I can carry on here! But I will be the bigger person, and forgive all of you when the 'Boys win the Super Bowl and gloooooaaaaat at your misery! HAH!

I have hopes that Trump will surprise us all. I also have hope that Pres. Obama will graciously recede into the background but I think that won't happen. The fact that Obama & family will remain in DC does not bode well. Unlike every other outgoing President who fades from public with grace and let't the incoming President take the helm withour comment, it is not in Obama's DNA. He will be very public and frankly has the potential to be a real threat to our Republic. ANd his followers will play along starting with disruption at the Inauguration and others. And even the cracky faux Constitutionalist pundits are disappointingly doubling down on the hate-filled rants.

I agree that the ACA is here to stay in some form. Let's hope that clearer heads will prevail and real "fixes" can be negotiated.

I have said this for 8 years now. I think with the unfettered access to real information via the WWW that the general public has such far reaching consequences for elected leaders all over the globs. They can no longer withhold inconvenient information 'cause someone is always willing to spill the truth. Merkel is just the next on the list in trying to deceive the public to a very real threat.

I think Obama is trying to actually cause WWIII with the UN resolution against Israel. And I think he has over=played his hand and will actually push the Jewish voted to the Republicans. But honestly, that has been happening during his whole administration.

I predict that Trump will bring Russia/Putin to heal. He plays at siding with Putin only because Obama et al. keep pushing the Election Hacking narrative. There are already calls for Trump to be impeached for treason...expect more of that.

And finally, I think that Texas will not secede from the Union. But California is another story. If all those Hollywood stars who promised to leave won't, maybe they should declare California as a Republic and be done with it.

BevfromNYC said...

Oh, and yes, if Trump doesn't cure all the ills of our economy with in 30 days of taking office, "poverty, disease, pestilence, and malaise" will be his fault. ANd the screams of "How dare you blame Obama for any of this!" will be the next mantra of the Cry-bully left...

If anything, 2017 will be entertaining and might I suggest that you buy lots of stock in the coloring-book printing companies and Crayola Crayons!

Rustbelt said...

Oh, geez! Only a few minutes left! Why, I guess Andrew forgot about it due to the election and the pressures of everyday life. So, I suppose it's up to me to deliver recognition of the 50th anniversary before 2016 is over.

That being said, in honor of the 50th anniversary, here's the franchise as I first knew it as a kid: LINK

Made it!

As for 2017...may all here at Commentarama live long and prosper.

tryanmax said...

RE: poverty, homelessness, and AIDS, I fully expect Trump to respond in ways that no one will predict.

AndrewPrice said...

Congratulations. You have survived 2016. You may now level up to 2017.

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks for taking over Rustbelt! :)

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I agree completely.

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Daniel! I'm not sure why we won yet, but I'll take it. Interestingly, they have caused this group to decide to stay together to police the city's future actions as well. Whoops.

P.S. The bike guys are super pissed right now. They are whining like you wouldn't believe that their plan to use tax money to mess with motorists has gone down in flames.

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