Thursday, October 29, 2020

So There's an Election

I really have no idea how this election will turn out. Honestly, it could go either way.

Let's start with the basics. There are states that will go for Trump, no matter what, and states that will go for the socialist whacko, no matter what. Those states don't matter. What matters are a handful of swing states that could go either way. You can forget the national polls too. They don't matter. New York and California lean so far left that they add millions to the Democrat in the national vote. But those votes are lost in our 50%+1 goes to the winner system. Also, ignore polls that only look at the public. Likely voters are what matter. Even then, polls have proven to be very unreliable, especially where Trump is concerned because people lie about supporting him. So what have we got?

There are lots of reasons to suspect Trump will lose. There are so many anti-Trump Republicans. The left hates him (though they are surprisingly disengaged). The entire system is against him. The polls show him losing in huge numbers, too. Even the state-by-state polls put him several points behind in all the swing states.

That said, there are some odd things in the polls. First, internal Democratic polls (where revealed) tend to be several points further right than the public polls. Also, in the last election, Trump did between 3% and 6% better than his polling in most states.  Some of the polls seem crazy too.  Trump won't lose a swing state by 17%, he just won't.

There's also this: polls of Hispanics, Asians and blacks show Trump getting more support than last time and far more support than Republicans have been getting. If that holds true, it shakes things up dramatically. I think this is the reason Trump may win Nevada. Trump is even getting strange support among rappers. Lil Wayne is the latest to support Trump.

What I see to support this is panic from the Dems in Florida. There are screams of low turnout in black and Hispanic areas. Recriminations among operatives. Unexpectedly high pro-Trump turnout. That's all good for Trump and bad for the Dems. If this is true, and it carries over to other states, then Trump should win Nevada, has a good chance in Arizona, and will likely win Ohio and North Carolina. Michigan looks lost to me, but who knows. I think Trump is suffering from the nuts in Michigan turning people off.

I was told months ago that Trump is winning Nevada and I think that might be true. That will be a shock to the Dems. A friend who lives there says he sees nothing but Trump support and the local Democrats talking about legal challenges.  All good signs.

I wonder if the BLM riots might help Trump win Pennsylvania, Washington and Oregon, though Wash and Oregon are always just mirages for the Republicans.

I see no enthusiasm for Biden anywhere, which might actually hurt him.  I've seen one bumper sticker in Colorado... though Colorado will solidly go for Biden.

Wisconsin seems lost. Not sure what happened there. Minnesota is supposed to be in play, but I can't see it. They didn't even vote for Reagan.

Will this be enough? I honestly have no idea. This could be ugly. One thing I do know is that win or lose, the left is a festering tantrum that should never be trusted with power.  Sadly, they may win.  Boo.
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Sunday, October 25, 2020

Sorry for the Absence

Howdy folks. Sorry I've been gone for a while. I had a really bad case of strep which morphed into a sinus infection right as it was finally healing. So I've been kind of out of it for a couple week. In other news, I guess there's an election coming up. I have no idea whose going to win. Blech. How are all of you?
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