Click Here To Read Article/Comments at CommentaramaFilms
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Rex Reed: Not Enough Hate In Lincoln
Click Here To Read Article/Comments at CommentaramaFilms
Oh, By The Way...
● Why Obamacare May Fail: Boy is my face red. See, it turns out there might be a problem with Obamacare actually working, which NO ONE foresaw. See, the nation faces a doctor shortage. And we all know shortages just happen, they have nothing to do with supply and demand signals which redirect people to different professions.
Anyhoo, it turns out that the nation will need another 52,000 family doctors than we are expected to have by 2025. Unfortunately, we won’t have that because doctors are greedy. They are choosing to go into specialties rather than work for long hours for low pay which can’t pay back their massive student loans by becoming family doctors. //sigh What will those evil rich do to us next?
Oh, and part of the problem is that Medicare won’t pay enough for people to want to be doctors. . . rotten, evil Medicare. Someone really should fix that.
Anyway, just some sidenotes from the study: Obamacare won’t make this worse when it brings 38 million new people into the system (hey, wasn’t that 43 million a couple years ago?) because these numbers already include that. . . unless you think the study is lying (hint hint: it is, prior studies pinned this number above 100,000). And this MAY change your ability to actually see your doctor, but don’t sweat that because you will have guaranteed coverage (subject to doctor availability). Also, if there should somehow happen to be an access problem, like in Massachusetts, which has tons of family doctors (second highest ratio of family docs to other docs in the country) and still can’t keep up with demand, then maybe we need to drop this idea that people should be seeing doctors and should instead see nurses. . . or talk to an online doctor? (translation: learn to be happy with less, folks). And/Or maybe we should force doctors to work in “patient-centered homes, where everyone works on a team in effort to increase the number of patients per provider.” (translation: work harder you f*cking doctors. . . arbeit mach frei, my friends). Yep, smooth sailing ahead!
And remember, socialism only failed because no one ever tried it right.
● And About Those Human Rights: Hey, did you hear about this? Drone strikes. Kill lists. Renditions to secret CIA prisons. Attacks on countries we have not declared war against. Undeclared wars in Sudan, Libya, Pakistan, Yemen, etc. Secret military tribunals for our Arab guests. Bush is evil. . . Obama is evilER. Fortunately, human rights only matter when the wrong people violate them!
● Remember When You Worked Full Time? Ok, a history lesson. Europe is a basket case. If you’re old and got your job in the 1960s-1980s or if you work for the government or if you’re a professional, then things are fine. If you’re anybody else, well, you’re f*ed and not in a good way! See France and Spain offer the classic examples. They imposed all these laws to help “workers.” And despite everyone being absolutely sure that business wouldn’t try to get around these. . . somehow, they did. What they did, was they started hiring people only as part-timers so the laws wouldn't apply. Hence, those benefits you normally would have gotten, you no longer got those, and forget the new ones the government “gave” you too.
Well, if there’s one thing the Democrats have learned, it’s to never pay attention to history. So they’ve been busy passing all kinds of laws forcing companies to give benefits to workers, like Obamacare. Yep. And we KNOW that business will happily give such benefits, just as they did(n’t) in Spain and France!
Along comes Olive Garden. . . and Papa Johns. And they have announced they will cut worker’s hours below 30 hours so they all qualify as “part time” and they aren’t required to provide healthcare to any of their employees. Sooo sorry if your wages suck ass now, but hey, NO ONE could have seen this coming. These are just the first, too. Olive Garden is owned by Darden, which owns dozens of other franchises. And other companies are saying the same thing. Expect this to spread throughout the service industry. So basically, the gay waiter, single mother and youth demographic who depend on these jobs (all core Obama supporters) is about to discover that life will be a lot harder under their Messiah. Whoops. Maybe we can raise the minimum wage to help them? That always creates jobs, doesn't it?
● We Didn’t Really Mean It? Do you remember how Obama promised to make those evil rich suffer to placate the spite of his followers? And do you remember all those corporate loopholes Obama wanted to close to put a worker’s boot up the ass of our rich cousins? Uh... not so much. The Democrats have signaled that they want to raise the limit on who will be taxed to maybe $500,000 or even a million, and they aren’t really interested in going too high with the rates either. Moreover, they don’t want to close any loopholes, like the Republicans want. I guess the rich found a friend in Comrade Obama.
So basically, gays, youths, single mothers and people who need government-provided healthcare will suffer because of Obama. . . and the rich get off unscathed. I wonder if Obama's moronic followers will see the irony in any of this? Probably not.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
How To Run A Modern Campaign
● The Effectiveness of Television: Morris notes that despite 80% of advertising dollars being spent in the swing states, they only registered a 0.3% change from 2008. From this, he concludes that television ads don’t work. What he’s missing, however, is 2010. Had this election occurred in 2010, Romney would have blown Obama away in those same swing states. What changed between 2010 and 2012 was that in 2011, Obama began running negative ads against Romney in those swing states. This was before Romney had even won the primary. The result of this was that Romney’s negatives were 10% higher in targeted states like Ohio, than they were in demographically similar states like Pennsylvania. In other words, Obama’s negative spending was able to wipe out the gains of 2010. That’s effective.
Where Morris IS correct is that neither side was able to move themselves forward with their own ads. . . they were only able to tear the other guy down. But rather than buying into Morris’ sweeping declaration, let me suggest that the problem was the ads, not the idea of the ads. Here’s why they failed:
● Negativity. Colorado was awash in ads. I saw them all. And only one ad truly struck me as something that made me hopeful for a candidate, and that was an ad Obama ran in the last 3-4 days. Before that, neither candidate gave me any reason to support them. Compare that to corporate America. They invest millions to come up with great ways to make you want their products. They rarely tear down a competitor, because that doesn’t make you want their product, and if they do, it’s just to compare themselves... “we’re faster.” Neither Romney nor Obama did that. There were almost no positive ads, and none of the negative ads offered you a positive alternative. It was basically Coke running ad after ad claiming that Pepsi is made from yak urine. How does that sell Coke?This is why the television ads didn’t work. The next candidate needs to learn to see himself as a product and sell himself like he would a new electronic device or new car. Target consumers. Use a complete, creative campaign. And sell yourself, don’t waste your time tearing down the other guy... let the PACs do that.
● Oversaturation. Even the best ads become grating when you see them 500 times and turn people off. If you’re going to spend the money, make a lot more ads.
● Untargeted ads. Advertising is very carefully done to reach specific target audiences. New adapters are told a product is edgy and daring. The sheep who think they’re wolves are told they need the product to separate themselves from the herd. And the rest of the sheep are told they better get with it or the herd will leave them behind. Romney and Obama ran ads with zero targeting. They both simply recited “facts” in either happy or menacing ways. This made them useless because they “spoke” to no one.
● Outreach: A decade ago, the NFL realized it had a problem. Kids weren’t watching the NFL and their market share was slipping. They set out to change that. They created a campaign to encourage kids to exercise, which just happened to use sports stars who pimped the NFL in the process. They paid for equipment for youths. They teamed with celebrities and they advertised. Their rating soared. The Republicans need to learn from this lesson. They need to start offering reasons for people to look to them as a positive force in their lives and not just as a political party. Let me suggest the following:
● GOP Health. Every organization I know offers a group health plan. AARP does it. State Bar’s do it. Colleges do it. There is power in pooling. Why doesn’t the GOP do this for its 80 million members? They should have more than enough clout to get great rates, which will (1) give people a reason to join the party, (2) afford the GOP constant/free advertising as people get fliers or whatnot under the program, and (3) give people a reason to see the GOP as a force for good in their lives. This will help immensely when it comes time to vote, especially with small businesses and young workers with lousy jobs.It is time to think about how to attract people year round and to give them a reason to stick with the party long term. The above would do an effective job in terms of outreach, generating good will, and ensuring constant positive advertising.
● GOP Education. There are banks that will set up education savings accounts which let you put money in pre-tax accounts to be used for tuition. Again, the GOP should partner with banks to offer such plans to its members. This does the exact same thing as above and it shows the GOP’s concern with reducing the cost of college. This will help parents and young people.
● Get Out The Vote: This election proved that both sides were horrible at getting out the vote. Once again, the Democrats appear better at handling election day, but neither party really scored because they basically relied on millions of annoying cold calls. This needs to be re-thought. I propose this:
● Technology. Invest in computers to ensure better targeting. (Proven technology, not secretive ad hoc crap like Romney tried.) There is no reason I should have received 10 calls a night, and certainly not after I voted. Party workers should know who is registered and who isn’t, who has been contacted and who hasn’t, and what their demographics are.This is how modern billion-dollar campaigns need to be run. Join the modern world GOP. Learn from corporate America. They know how to sell. . . you don’t. Learn that a campaign needs to be run year round, every year, not just once every four years. Get professional guidance from corporate marketing specialists, not political hacks. And never forget, there is a science to all of this. . . it’s not an art.
● Registration. Here’s the real key. Rather than waste money on phone calls and television advertising, the party needs to send volunteers house to house to every unregistered voter in center-right neighborhoods across the country and ask them in person to register. WHEN THEY DO, sign them up immediately to vote by mail. The ballots will come to them automatically. You can then call these people (who are now in your computer) a few days after the ballots get mailed out and ask them to vote. The return on investment on this will be huge! Why? Because (1) it happens before the “real” campaign starts, so it’s easier to influence them, (2) you have made face to face contact and you can provide them with information they need to be won over, (3) they are much more likely to mail in a ballot than take the time to go vote, and (4) the ballots will keep coming for each election thereafter. This is the real no-brainer which the Republicans need to focus on. Forty percent of the nation doesn’t turn out to vote, this can address that. Stop thinking of elections in 1950s terms... embrace change and exploit it.
● Switch to Mail from Phone Contact. You seed to send fliers, not make phone calls if you want to reach people. Fliers don’t annoy people like phone calls. They also let people choose their own time to think about the race. BUT... make sure these fliers are unique, like a puzzle game or mystery or contest, to get people to read them. Be creative! Moreover, target your voters – first time voters, swing voters, reliable voters, old people, married people, single people, minorities.... they should all receive different campaigns. Companies do it because it works. We should too.
● Election Day. Finally, this is when you do the things campaigns normally do, like helping old people get to the polls, calling people to remind them to vote and asking people to bring their friends. And if you've done the registration part right, you will have a lot more time to do this right because 50%+ of your voters will already have voted.
Anything I missed?
Monday, November 12, 2012
A Veterans Day Salute
“Courage Is Almost A Contradiction In Terms.
It Means A Strong Desire To Live Taking The Form Of Readiness To Die."
Veterans Day is officially the eleventh day of the eleventh month first proclaimed by Pres. Woodrow Wilson in 1919 and later expanded to be a day of remembrance for our living veterans and service personnel currently serving. Part of Wilson’s official proclamation: -
To all who have served, who currently serve, and will serve in the future, thank you for your courage and your willingness to serve. We wish to express our heartfelt thank you.
[+] Read More...
It Means A Strong Desire To Live Taking The Form Of Readiness To Die."
Veterans Day is officially the eleventh day of the eleventh month first proclaimed by Pres. Woodrow Wilson in 1919 and later expanded to be a day of remembrance for our living veterans and service personnel currently serving. Part of Wilson’s official proclamation: -
“To us in America, the reflections of Armistice Day will be filled with solemn pride in the heroism of those who died in the country's service and with gratitude for the victory, both because of the thing from which it has freed us and because of the opportunity it has given America to show her sympathy with peace and justice in the councils of the nations."So that the official Uniform Monday Holiday Act federal employee holiday from work (with the exception of those in uniform, of course) does not get lost to the "Veterans Day Sale" at the local malls, let us remember why this holiday was proclaimed in the first place. Please join me in the following:
To all who have served, who currently serve, and will serve in the future, thank you for your courage and your willingness to serve. We wish to express our heartfelt thank you.
Necessary Changes To The Republican Party
Let’s start by highlighting the problem. There is a belief in conservative circles that the country is much more conservative than liberal and we just need to win over conservative independents. This belief comes from polling which shows the country as 38% Democrats, 32% Republicans and 29% Independents, with independents leaning right. But “independents” turns out to be a meaningless category. Indeed, Romney won independents yet lost the election. What really matters are “moderates.”
In that regard, we find 35% conservatives, 25% liberals and 41% moderates. BUT, 60% of the “moderates” broke for Obama, meaning they are liberals. When you break this down, you find that 50% of Americans are conservatives and 50% are liberals. In other words, we're a 50/50 country. So forget the idea of tapping into a pool of hidden conservatives. If we want to move the needle, we need to look at the groups we lost overwhelmingly and we need to figure out ways to win back their more centrist members. Here's how...
● The Gender (read: “Single”) Gap: Women account for 53% of the electorate and Obama carried them by 11%. Romney carried men by 7%. But that doesn’t tell us what’s really going on. The real key is single people.
Romney won married men by 20% and married women by 6%. These two groups made up 29% and 31% of the electorate (60% in total). So how did he lose? He got blown away among singles. Indeed, Romney lost single men by 20% and single women by 40%! These two groups made up only 18% and 23% of the electorate, but the huge gaps made up the difference.
If the Republicans ever want to win again, they need to win more single people, particularly single women. To do that, we need to understand the problem. So realize this. First, Reagan won both groups (he won men by 28% and women by 10%). So there is nothing inherently “wrong” with singles being Republicans. Nor was there something wrong with Romney. McCain didn't face a “war on women” attack or smears about his father being a bigamist, and he did 3% worse with women than Romney. What this means is that the party has a structural problem which developed after Reagan.
When you look at polls or talk to these people, what you will hear is outrage/terror about the Republican Party’s various stances on social issues. This is particularly true with single women who are turned off by the party’s attacks on gays, its obsession with abortion and contraception, and its rhetorical attacks about “family values” which imply that only married people with kids and church-goers are moral.
The Solution: If the GOP wants to win singles, particularly single women, it needs to stop hating gays, it needs to stop conflating going to church or being married with being a good American, and it needs to stop obsessing over abortion. I recommend removing abortion from the platform or stepping it back to “safe, rare, restricted, and no government funding.” Leave the rest for churches to push, not government policy. And shoot the first person to talk about restricting other forms of contraception. . . Rick Santorum. I recommend making gay marriage a question of individual conscience (so as not to interfere with religious freedom) while putting support for civil unions and anti-discrimination laws in the platform. I recommend removing talk of the party believing in God and instead shifting to talking about protecting everyone's right to believe... in any religion or no religion. And I recommend eliminating all talk of constitutional amendments on any social issues -- that's pointless and whacky. Also stop signing those stupid fringy pledges! They're a trap.
● The Youth Vote: Romney won old people, but got crushed with the young. 19-29 year olds favored Obama by 26%. Even 30-44 year olds favored Obama by 10%. Together, they made up 46% of the electorate. The next 38% of the electorate were tied. Then Romney won oldsters by 12%. So there is a youth problem which the seniors don’t make up for.
The youth problem can be attributed to several things. On the one hand, the youth vote is the direct result of GOP stodginess and intolerance on issues like gays and abortion, and its lack of visible minorities. But more importantly, another huge turnoff is the GOP’s rhetorical attacks on college education and seeming unwillingness to help young people leave college without crushing levels of debt, i.e. without making them slaves to banks. The GOP’s attacks on internet freedom don’t help either. Nor does the GOP’s image as the party of Big Business. Indeed, many of these young people drifted to Ron Paul and then Gary Johnson and finally back to Obama because the GOP seemed to offer no hope that it cared about people rather than corporations.
The Solution: It’s time to understand that these are issues of economic freedom. I recommend the GOP come up with a genuine plan to (1) help every American go to college while (2) reducing the cost of college so young people aren’t enslaved for the first 20 years of their economic lives. Don't forget, government caused this problem. I recommend supporting total internet freedom and fighting censorship in any form. That means dropping the heinous idea of regulating the internet to promote morality (i.e. “protecting children”) or doing the bidding of corporate America through anti-piracy laws. I also recommend that conservatives stop defending big companies. Talk about people, not companies. Fight cronyism in any form. Talk about the American dream!! Our party should be focused on helping average people strive to make their lives better, to build a business, buy a house, send their kids to college... not protecting the balance sheets of multinational corporations. All of these are conservative values, so why aren't we doing them already?
● The Minority Gap: The minority gap is beyond critical. Obama won Hispanics by 44%, Asians by 45%, blacks by 88% and Muslims by 70%. Muslims and Asians only make up 2% and 3% of the public, but blacks make up 13% of the electorate and Hispanics make up 11% of the electorate, and growing. There are several glaring problems here.
● Asians are generally industrious, business-minded and education-minded, which should make them natural GOP allies, especially as liberal affirmative action is hurting Asian students in California. How did we lose them by 45%? Because the party comes across as hostile to non-whites. Moreover, the party has offered nothing in the way of education and its focus on “business” has been on oil companies, not small businesses.Conclusion
The Solution: Court these voters. Also, we need to rediscover the American dream. We need to protect the little guy and not worry about the big guy. Warren Buffett and Wall Street can take care of themselves, and they don't like us anyway.
● For a party that claims to cherish religious freedom, Muslims should be natural allies. But they aren’t. Why not? Because of open bigotry by conservatives, be it accusing all Muslims of being terrorists, to careless talk about bombing the Middle East, to paranoid freak-outs about the appointment of a single Muslim judge to a meaningless municipal judgeship.
The Solution: It’s time to start mentioning Islam along with other religions when talking about religious freedom, and it’s time to stop pushing symbolic ideas like banning sharia law (which can’t be put in place under our constitution in any event).
● Blacks and Hispanics should be much closer to 50/50, but they aren’t. Again, the problem is the appearance of bigotry. Conservatives treat blacks and Hispanics like unpleasant neighbors who need to be humored every four years. They do not treat them like part of the family. They use hyperbolic speech, they are afraid to speak the truth and they talk down to these people as if they are children. They even make bizarre racial-tinged attacks on things like rap music and “ghetto culture.” When they conduct outreach, it’s a token appointment of the whitest black/Hispanic guy in the room to a meaningless position, or it’s an attempt to go along with some Democratic plan to buy loyalty.
On Hispanics, conservatives have created a serious problem with talk of deportation. Polls show that 60% of Hispanics know someone who is here illegally. That makes deportation a personal danger to them. Making this self-inflicted wound worse, talk of deportation is just gratuitous because it won’t happen. Moreover, conservatives talk in racist terms about Hispanics. They imply that all Hispanics are here illegally. They imply that all Hispanics are criminals. And they imply that all Hispanics are the same.
The Solution: Fixing the Hispanic problem will require a radical change in thinking. We need to realize that deportation isn’t going to happen, so learn to accept the idea that these illegals are here to stay. The GOP needs to go on a “listening tour” in the Hispanic community (so they get credit for acting) and then propose an amnesty – don’t wait for Obama. AND conservatives need to shut the hell up about it. The more they whine, the less credit conservatives will get for having changed. Until we do this, we are just delaying the inevitable and we’re making the wound bigger.
The GOP also needs to conduct real outreach. Every Congressman should hire Spanish-speaking staffers whose job would be to do what they do for everyone else, i.e. meet with Hispanic constituents every day of the year and help them get benefits, get permits, and get through the immigration system. They need to actively court Hispanic business owners and hook them up with their other donors. They need to encourage their friends in the banking industry to make loans to these people. They need to court mothers with children by telling them about the educational reforms they want. Start winning them over, one vote at a time, day after day in a thousand districts across the country.
They need to do the same with blacks. Even a 5-10% shift would be seismic.
Finally, they need to appoint a LOT of Hispanic, black, young and female Republicans to prominent positions. Right now there are basically none. I also think the next Republican presidential ticket must include a dark-skinned Hispanic and a youngish woman. This will help with minorities, with single women and with the young.
The GOP can turn this around, but they need to take decisive action. I'm not saying to become libertarians. Their obsession with drugs, conspiracies and their inability to recognize a proper role for government make them too far gone. But we need to offer people something better than the message of: (1) we fear minorities, (2) we want to control single women, (3) we only like married Christians, (4) we hate college kids, and (5) the American dream is to be a slave of corporate America.
Conservatism needs a reboot. It’s time to talk about personal economic freedom, the freedom to build the American dream on a level playing field. It’s time to fully include minorities in that dream. And it’s time to stop undercutting that message by acting like the morality police. It’s time to give people a reason to support us, not fear us.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
The Great (film) Debates vol. 61
Americans are big into recycling, at least they are with sitcom stars.There are actors who are permanent fixtures on sitcoms (like Ted Danson), who is your favorite?
Click Here To Read Article/Comments at CommentaramaFilms
Saturday, November 10, 2012
More Dumb Stuff from NY and other BS...
So, last week, a large swathe of NY and NJ was hit very hard by Hurricane Sandy leaving ten of thousands permanently homeless, hundreds of thousands without electricity, and millions without gasoline and other basic necessities. The main oil refinery in Linden, New Jersey was damaged to such an extent that gasoline supplies are fast being depleted with no timetable when it will start producing gasoline again. And worst of all, included destruction is our supply of adult beverages because the main beverage distribution center was wiped out and all the adult beverages were destroyed [see photo above]. But FEMA has been here to help people apply for aid...no actual aid - no blankets, precious little food or clothing, but hey, there's a website where you can sign up...if you have electricity.
This week the same area was hit with a classic "Nor'East'er" shutting down the same areas and pounding us with 50+ mile an hour winds and 3+ feet of snow and near freezing tempuratures. This left many of the same people who had just had their electricity restored after eight day, without electricity again, freezing temperatures, and very little gasoline to power generators. But hey, the Red Cross brought cookies and hot chocolate, some even supplied blankets! FEMA shut down because of the bad weather...
As a result, Governor Christie has mandated '70's style odd/even gas rationing plan, Governor Cuomo has all disappeared except to make vague threats to the power companies, but Mayor Bloomberg has been very busy. In light of all the destruction, he sprang into action by banning charitable food donations to homeless shelters because of the unknown salt/fiber/nutritional content of the donated food...seriously.
Next week...the Zombie Apocalypse begins. Please send vodka...
Just a few announcements:
1. Thanks to StanH for the suggestion, Commentarama is compiling a list of companies, organizations, and service providers for our Commentarama-BS Boycott. I am currently going through donor lists by industry on opensecrets.com to locate who gave overwhelmingly to the Democrats. This is just a start. Please feel to include more.
Here are few to consider who gave generously to BS:
Walt Disney Co.
Comcast Corp.
Time Warner
DreamWorks SKG
Microsoft
Google, inc.
Intel. Corp
IBM Corp.
Apple Inc.
Ebay Inc.
2. Please send the names of good Red State companies to bolster.
3. Don't forget about our Commentarama-nary! Still have work to do to update with many wonderful new additions from the last few weeks.
[+] Read More...
This week the same area was hit with a classic "Nor'East'er" shutting down the same areas and pounding us with 50+ mile an hour winds and 3+ feet of snow and near freezing tempuratures. This left many of the same people who had just had their electricity restored after eight day, without electricity again, freezing temperatures, and very little gasoline to power generators. But hey, the Red Cross brought cookies and hot chocolate, some even supplied blankets! FEMA shut down because of the bad weather...
As a result, Governor Christie has mandated '70's style odd/even gas rationing plan, Governor Cuomo has all disappeared except to make vague threats to the power companies, but Mayor Bloomberg has been very busy. In light of all the destruction, he sprang into action by banning charitable food donations to homeless shelters because of the unknown salt/fiber/nutritional content of the donated food...seriously.
Next week...the Zombie Apocalypse begins. Please send vodka...
Just a few announcements:
1. Thanks to StanH for the suggestion, Commentarama is compiling a list of companies, organizations, and service providers for our Commentarama-BS Boycott. I am currently going through donor lists by industry on opensecrets.com to locate who gave overwhelmingly to the Democrats. This is just a start. Please feel to include more.
Here are few to consider who gave generously to BS:
Walt Disney Co.
Comcast Corp.
Time Warner
DreamWorks SKG
Microsoft
Google, inc.
Intel. Corp
IBM Corp.
Apple Inc.
Ebay Inc.
2. Please send the names of good Red State companies to bolster.
3. Don't forget about our Commentarama-nary! Still have work to do to update with many wonderful new additions from the last few weeks.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Film Friday: True Lies (1994)
Click Here To Read Article/Comments at CommentaramaFilms
Reclaiming The Past
I'm sure I don't need to tell you this, but a lot of what gets put into history books these days is extremely inaccurate and twisted to fit liberal interpretations. Thanks to recent scholarship on the Right, many conservatives are well aware of the most insidious example: that conservatives and Nazis are somehow linked. That subject could be a post in itself, but suffice to say, even many academics are no longer willing to make this claim.
But there are lots of other cases. For example:
Hoover was a laissez-faire conservative. Nothing could be further from the truth. Although he certainly wasn't a socialist either, Hoover, who made his fame as a humanitarian in the Wilson administration, was a firm believer in intervention. One of the things he did following the Crash of '29 was to more than double the existing tax rate for people in top income brackets, while another was to sign the Smoot-Hawley tariffs into law, which strangled free trade. Many economists agree that it was these acts of government interference, not "rugged individualism," which turned a recession into a depression.
The Catholic Church collaborated with the Nazis. Some extremely popular and extremely bad scholarship has been written, alleging that the wartime pope, Pius XII, not only did nothing to assist Jews during the Holocaust, but allowed the Church to take part in the persecution. In fact, Pius and leading bishops publicly denounced the ideas behind Nazism, hid hundreds if not thousands of Italian Jews within Vatican property, and repeatedly intervened across Europe to stop deportations to death camps. Despite the fact that their interests contradict each other, many historians continue to paint the Church as an enabler of totalitarianism.
Industrial capitalism impoverished the working class. You can make whatever claims you want about the moral and social effects of industrialization, but statistically, it is indisputable that the average man's physical condition improved during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Between 1750 and 1850, for example, the average annual income in Britain, then in the swing of the Industrial Revolution, more than doubled, while the infant mortality rate declined by more than half. Figures from France and Germany, which industrialized later, support this data, regardless of what Marxist historians want people to believe.
These are just a few random cases of how the things historians, including ones I have worked with, teach to their students are often just flat wrong. Scary, isn't it? The extent to which youths are told things that aren't true? But before you ask, no, I don't think there's a conspiracy at work here. From my own observation, it goes a lot deeper than that.
In the first place, history, like most liberal arts professions, is increasingly obsessed with theory. In truth, it's been like this for a while; the first professional historians in Europe used their field to glorify the nation-state, after which came the Marxists, who see everything in history as evidence of class conflict, and then the postmodernists, who see everything as some kind of conflict, and on and on. This doesn't have to be a bad thing, but it tends to cause people especially wedded to a theory to reject or filter information that doesn't fit. Plus, most of them take it for granted that white males are always holding the levers of power and therefore are always oppressing everyone else.
Also like most liberal arts professions, its members are mostly leftists of some stripe, which tends to produce a groupthink effect. You don't have to talk to sociologists to figure this out; go to any Department office at a university, count up the number of LGBT support stickers, Bush-bashing "Doonesbury" cartoons, and "Power to the People" posters on professors' doors, and guess for yourself how easy it is to express conservative ideals in their midst.
Plus, you have the problem that history is an increasingly research-driven field; in order to qualify for their degree and entry into the fold, a student has to write a dissertation on some topic and explain why what he's saying about it is important. Only with so many students and a fixed number of issues to talk about, we've long since exhausted any meaningful discussion, and most students trying to qualify today are falling back on theoretics to justify their work. Hopefully, you can tell by this point that these facets of the profession are reinforcing each other and making it more liberal over time. And it's clearly dangerous, because if this is the only version of past events young citizens hear, they're going to start thinking that class conflict is real, that government action can solve anything, and other falsehoods.
Since I put "Reclaiming" in the title, obviously I should be talking about what to do about it, right? Well, I do, but any counter-measures conservatives take will be a long time in showing results. That's just the nature of it. Hopefully, if I can make it through graduation and then tenure-getting without being ostracized, I'll make my own small dent in things, as will other conservatives I know in the process of becoming professors. But those who are on the other side of it can do something too. Academia would go nuts if they read this, but often the popular histories you see at bookstores are better at informing readers than the "scholarly" publications created for the ivory tower's benefit. They cover more ground and don't bother with theory. I recommend grounding yourself in these.
There are probably many more things which can be done. But the point is that we start thinking about how to combat the Left's control of education and other professions. Ultimately, winning the electoral fight every four years is merely tactical. It's winning the battle for minds that produces a true strategic victory.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Guest Review: Batman Returns (1992)
Tim Burton’s 1989 Batman was a huge hit and ushered in a wave of superhero films, which, despite several peaks and valleys, shows no sign of stopping. It was inevitable that one of those films would be a Batman sequel and in 1992, Tim Burton and Warner Bros. gave us Batman Returns. This film was criticized for being too dark, too violent, and too focused on the villains. As a Batman film, I can see how it might disappoint people. As a Tim Burton film, I think it’s great.
Click Here To Read Article/Comments at CommentaramaFilms
[+] Read More...
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
A Glimpse of the Future
● Why He Won: A lot of people are giving a lot of reasons why this election went the way it did. And to a degree many of them are right at the margins. But at its core, this election turned out the way it did for one simple reason: “short-sighted self-interest.”
Our government is a ponzi scheme. A ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment where people are enticed into investing with promises of unsustainably high returns. Those returns are paid for with the money taken from new investors. Essentially A’s benefits are paid using the investment of B and C. B and C’s benefits are paid using the investments of D, E, and F. And so on. As long as enough new people keep entering the scheme, the benefits will flow. But the moment the new money slows down, the entire scheme collapses. That is how our government is structured, as a fraudulent investment that pays out way more than it can afford because it is stealing from the future to pay the present.
Many people don’t understand this. They only see the high benefits they get, so they want the scheme to keep going. To them, it is manna from Heaven and they don’t want it to stop. These are core Obama supporters – progressives, welfare cases, minorities. Others understand the nature of the scheme but still invest in the hopes that the system won’t fail until they have made more than they invested. These are suburbanite Obama supporters – soccer moms, professionals. Others know the system will collapse any day, but also realize that so long as everyone else will get these benefits, they might as well get them too until the system collapses. These are union workers and government workers.
Here’s the problem for Obama. He can’t keep the benefits flowing. Why? Consider these problems Obama now faces.
● The Deficit: In the past four years, Obama added more to the national debt than all prior presidents combined. Our debt ($16 trillion) now equals the size of our economy (102%), it was 51% in 1988. This means we can no longer spend money without risking a Greece-like meltdown. Moreover, we are still headed in the wrong direction. The deficit is now one trillion dollars per year. This means Obama cannot spend more because there is no more. But he has a problem. . .So if Obama does nothing else, the deficit will increase by between $350 billion a year to $750 billion a year, plus interest cost increases. We could be looking at $2 trillion a year in deficits by 2015. And that’s just the beginning.....
● Interest: Because of the deficit, our credit rating was downgraded already and we are warned of worse to come. The cost of servicing the national debt is already $450 billion at 2.8% interest (historic lows). That’s 12% of the budget. If we continue on this course, we will be downgraded again and again and our interest costs will rise. Every 1% rise in rates adds $160 billion to the deficit each year.
● Military: Right now, the budget is balanced on the idea of taking about $200 billion a year from the military budget. This was always fake and will return to the budget. Moreover, war with Iran (or Syria) will add about $300 billion a year.
● Medicare: Obama faces two problems with regard to Medicare. First, he’s promised to steal $700 billion from it (about $150 billion a year). That is a fake accounting gimmick and will return to the budget. Secondly, Medicare is becoming a worthless benefit because doctors will no longer take it because it doesn’t pay enough. Fixing this will cost around $100 billion per year, increasing by 20% per year.
● Obamacare: If you assume a best case scenario, Obamacare is estimated to cost $1.76 trillion over ten years, or $176 billion a year. But you never get best case in government. The long-term reliable estimate for government spending is five times the initially estimated cost. That would be $880 billion a year. Moreover, this assumes most people will stay on private plans, but there’s no reason for employers to keep those plans. Also, health care costs, which were projected to go down, are going up 21% per year.So now we’re looking at deficits of $3-$3.3 trillion a year. And it gets worse.
● Unemployment: There are 23 million unemployed after the prior jobless decade. Another 20 million jobs will be needed just to stay level with population growth. Obama’s policies kill jobs. Moreover, estimates are that if taxmaggedon happens, we are looking at another 6-10 million jobs lost. All of those unemployed people will need benefits. Even if we give only $10,000 a year to these people, you are looking at adding $480 billion a year in support payments, not to mention the lost tax revenue from them not working. Black unemployment will remain in the 20% range as will youth unemployment.
● Retirees: The federal government owes $2 trillion in unfunded retirement benefits to its workers. The state governments owe $5.2 trillion in unfunded retirement benefits to their workers. But that’s nothing compared to the coming Boomerpocalypse. The Boomers never bothered to save for retirement, choosing instead to rely on SSI. Over the next three decades, 81 million boomers will retire. That will create a $25 trillion unfunded liability in Medicare, plus another $21 trillion unfunded liability in Social Security. Moreover, these people will stop contributing to the tax base.So this is what Obama faces, an economic and fiscal catastrophe caused by the actions of his party over the past twenty-plus years, actions his own policies made worse. He now faces stark choices: bankruptcy or letting Medicare die as an effective benefit, bankruptcy or killing Obamacare, bankruptcy or letting the unemployed starve. His supporters will now face (1) a likely depression or deep, jobless recession, (2) broken state budgets resulting in jobs cuts for union workers and benefit cuts for core Obama supporters, and (3) a federal government that has no power to spend money to save any of Obama’s supporters from the problems they will face. The ponzi scheme has run its course and his drones will not be happy when the money stops flowing.
Further, there is strong evidence that all the economic bubbles we’ve experienced are actually the result of the boomer bubble itself. The boom of the 1990s appears to have been fueled with a massive spending binge by baby boomers. And now that the boomers have stopped spending, the economy may not recover. In fact, long term stock market trends predict that we are in a long term collapse nearly identical to the Great Depression. . . because of the boomers.
● State Bankruptcy: Several states, with California taking the lead, will go bankrupt in the next 2-4 years. They have committed to spending too much and cannot raise taxes enough to cover their debts. They are hoping for a Federal bailout, but that won’t come because there is no money to give them. Look for the shock of this to push the economy into depression and to result in court ordered (1) breaking of state employee union contracts, (2) massive across the board tax hikes, and (3) slashing of benefits, which will worsen the death spiral.
Moreover, Obama will need to go to war with Iran or watch as London or New York goes up in smoke. He will need to turn his back on Eurozone requests for a handout to save them from their folly – not to mention, our economy still drives the world and our depression will drag down everyone else. He will need to spend vast sums on military preparations to face down a China made aggressive by their own economic malaise and by Obama’s perceived weakness. The falling dollar will crush Mexico, Germany and China, who rely on exports to us. His policies will make gas, food and electricity costs more expensive. And he can’t deliver on any of his legislative promises.
And all the while, his people will be wondering why the ponzi scheme has stopped paying out.
It’s going to be an ugly four years.
Also, let me stress... I am NOT predicting doomsday here. That is not what this is. Each of these issues can be overcome, but they can't be overcome with Obama's policies or in ways that will leave his supporters happy.
That is the real point here, Obama faces a dilema: let the country sink and outrage his followers when the money stops OR fix things and outrage his followers by taking away their benefits.
So don't read this as an end of the world prediction.... leave that to the Mayans.
It's Your Problem Now. . .
● To The Retards: Congratulations. You proved once again last night that one can never go broke underestimating the American public. You, my slow cousins, just re-elected a man who has put the country on the brink of bankruptcy and whose plan to fix that is to (1) spend more money that doesn't exist to create jobs that won't exist, (2) create an unfunded entitlement program that is bigger than the entire national budget, and (3) tax his way to prosperity. Good luck with that, assholes. Good luck because you, his mindless supporters will be the ones hardest hit when the economy tanks and when the government can't afford to pay the benefits you voted for yourselves. Indeed, good luck when gas prices hit $6 a gallon, when your taxes double, when your employer drops your healthcare and you get fined for not buying your own coverage, when your doctor stops taking Medicare or Medicaid, when your welfare check stops adjusting for inflation or shows up as an IOU, and when you lose your job to China because Obama won't stand up to his debt-pimp. Good luck finding a job too with the economy being 23 million jobs short and your idiot Messiah's plan being to hire 100,000 new teachers. Not to mention he'll need to create another 10 million just to keep up with population growth. But don't worry, he'll get even with all those rich bankers for you. . . only, he forgot to tell you, he's their bitch. That's right, he passed regulations that let evil Wall Street wipe out small local banks so that they can make a mint on your stupid ass.
● To My Productive Friends: This election was a battle between productive Americans and leeches. The leeches won. But guess what, you still have options. I recommend the following:
(1) Everyone should apply for every government benefit they can. None of these programs are funded and they rely on good people being unwilling to apply for them, i.e. they only work because only a fraction of people who qualify actually take the benefit. It's time that changed. It's time for everyone to demand every penny to which they are entitled. Employers should drop their employee health insurance and shift that cost to the government, just as Obama wants. Take up tax avoidance strategies. Find tax shelters. Apply for subsidies. Reagan broke the Russians by spending them into oblivious, you can do the same to Washington. There is no shame in taking from a thief.● To Congress: The Democrats are now talking about the Republicans needing to come together to work with Obama to solve the nation's problems. Why should you? Pelosi proved in 2004-2006 that the public would not punish them for standing in the way of everything Bush wanted. To the contrary, they got more seats. Harry Reid and Obama proved in 2010-2012 that they could stand in the way of everything as well, and they too got rewarded. For six years now, the strategy of paralysis combined with character assassination has proven effective. I see no reason why the Republicans in the House and the Senate shouldn't do the same. Let the country fail and let Obama take the blame -- America is strong enough to pick up the pieces in six years. It's time for scorched earth. No more good faith. No more acting for the good of the country over partisanship. If a deal gets done, make sure it benefits red states at the expense of blue states. . . forget shared pain. And never stop the character assassinations. This was Obama's plan and now it needs to be yours.
(2) Stop subsiding liberal cesspools. Conservatives need to move their businesses from blue states to red states. Stop buying from blue state companies. Buy instead from red states or foreign companies.
(3) Conservative governors, don't be stupid. Grab every penny you can from Washington. Sign up for Obamacare or you will only end up subsidizing the states that do. Being frugal in a zero-sum game only means you end up paying the bill for others binging.
● To The Religious Right: Go away. For several election cycles now, it's been clear that the Religious Right has become an increasingly heavy drag on the party. It is simply impossible to win women and moderates when your party is the party of old white guys who proclaim rape to be the will of God and who want the government to obsess over gays and abortion. Your bullshit will never pass and all it's doing is turning off the people we need to fix the country.
● To Conservative Whites: It's time to face the fact that the electorate is changing and we need to embrace Hispanics. If Romney had gotten into office, I think we would have seen a serious change in this regard, but he didn't. So it's up to us. It's time we STOPPED talking about deporting illegal aliens. That will never happen anyway and whining about it only upsets Hispanic voters who don't want to hear us running around talking about deporting their friends and family. Get over it.
● To My Foreign Friends: The joke's on you, seriously. I've been speaking with several foreigners who were very much rooting for Obama for a variety of reasons. Sadly for you, you are about as misinformed as humans can get. Here are some things you thought would change "from the evil Bush years" which didn't and which won't: Obama won't close Gitmo, he won't stop the war on terror, he won't stop using drones or landmines. He won't rein in America's out of control debt. He won't take the lead on climate change or on saving the Eurozone circle jerk. Oh, and to my Chinese friends, all that paper you are holding marked "Backed By The Good Faith and Credit of the United States" isn't worth the paper it's written on. Sorry, you backed the wrong horse.
Do I sound bitter? Probably, but I'm not. I'm just telling you the truth. In reality, I really don't care about last night because it doesn't affect me. The people who will be hurt are the very people who wanted Obama to win, and it's kind of hard to care about them, since they decided to use the ballot box to steal from the rest of us to support their own worthless lives. But I'm through saving you from your own incompetence. You've created fiscal and economic tsunamis that will now strike. And like I said, it's your problem now.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Election Night America!
As the swing states decide, we'll update the map above and let you know which states have gone which way. Reputable sources say Romney wins 315 votes. My personal guess is that he wins 301 votes: New Hampshire, VA, NC, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, all of Nebraska, Colorado, and Nevada. He does not get Oregon, any of Maine, or Pennsylvania. But we'll see.
The Senate is important tonight too. Of those "in play," we are defending: Massachusetts, Indiana, Maine and Arizona. All but Arizona are endangered. The Democrats are defending: Hawaii, Wisconsin, Connecticut, North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. All but Florida are endangered. We need to win a net of four seats to take control. I predict we win four.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Final Pre-Election Roundup
● The Presidency. The polls are all over the place. There are polls showing Romney/Obama tied in Michigan, Romney ahead in Ohio, Romney ahead in Pennsylvania, and there are polls showing the reverse. Pretty much every battleground state has contradictory polls. So forget the polls and focus on the momentum. As we head into the final hours of the campaign, Romney is hitting his stride and he’s giving off all the signs of being the winner. He’s talking about big themes, love of country, and setting a very positive, enthusiastic tone. He’s talking about the future. He’s also drawing crowds of around 30,000 people. Even the press is noticing his tone. Obama, on the other hand, is speaking to nearly empty venues and just told his supporters “voting is the best revenge.” Talk about exposing a hateful leftist mindset if you need to appeal to anger and spite to excite your supporters.
Moreover, the Romney people are starting to predict victory. One Romney aid predicted 300 electoral votes. Michael Barone predicted 315. Sen. Rob Portman says he’s confident Ohio will swing Republican. They are spending money in states where they shouldn’t even be competitive, like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. On the other side, Team Obama is defensive. They are pouring money into the same states, talking about firewalls (which indicates a disaster) and spending their time trying to deny that Romney has momentum. . . they don’t claim any momentum of their own. The hurricane bounce appears to be three points, like all his bounces, and should have already faded -- plus, it won't translate into votes.
Now add in a rash of surprise newspaper endorsements for Romney with eleven major papers switching from Obama to Romney, and a demoralized press corps that hasn’t attacked Romney with any enthusiasm and which seems resigned to dealing with “President Romney.”
All of this suggests that things are indeed going Romney’s way.
● The House. There’s no serious contention that the Republicans will lose the House. Pelosi kept claiming she would win the 25 seats they need to take over, but now they are only promising 5 seats, and they are privately concerned about losing 1-2 seats.
● The Senate. The Senate is not turning out well. At once time, it looked like the Republicans could win as many as nine seats to get a 56-44 lead. But things have gone wrong. Uninspired candidates didn’t help. Then we got a surprise retirement in Maine. Then some of our candidates turned stupid. . . really stupid. Now it looks like we’ll be lucky to get the four seats we need to take the chamber 51-49.
Of the seats “in play,” the Republicans are defending four: Massachusetts, Indiana, Maine and Arizona. All but Arizona are endangered, and I think we’ll lose them all. Massachusetts is simply too liberal for a Republican to win barring something unusual in a bi-election. In Maine, another liberal state, the race will go to a popular former governor who will side with the Democrats. Indiana was a mistake, where a popular Republican got tossed in the primary by a “Tea Party” candidate who made a huge slip-up on abortion. . . something the Tea Party doesn’t normally worry about.
So we start by losing three seats, which puts us at 44 seats.
The Democrats are defending the following “in play” states: Hawaii, Wisconsin, Connecticut, North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Virginia. All but Florida are endangered.
We got stupid again in Nebraska (thank you Sarah Palin) and picked a bad candidate, but I think we’ll still squeak that one. Wisconsin in trending our way. Virginia is a race between two former governors and ours isn’t as inspired as he should be. It’s a toss up right now. We should be winning Montana, except a libertarian candidate is draining away just enough support to keep that one close. I think we win that too. Missouri was ours for the taking until our Religious Right nutjob candidate started talking about abortion. Now the race is too close to call. Everyone talks about how great the Democratic candidate is in North Dakota, but I don’t buy it. . . we win that one. Hawaii is a toss up, as is Ohio. I think we get Ohio, but not Hawaii. And finally, I think we lose Connecticut in a squeaker. That means we win 5, lose 2, and 2 remain undecided.
Doing the math means we get somewhere between 49 and 51 seats, with a likely result of 50. A 50/50 result would not be good because that means nothing will ever get out of committee. Indiana and Missouri are the real killers here and abortion is again the problem.
Also, let me remind people of Christine O’Donnell. Conservatives lost easily-winnable seats in Nevada, Delaware, and now likely in Missouri and Indiana because they got stupid and picked unpalatable candidates. Those four seats may well be the difference in Obamacare going into effect and conservatives will bear the full blame for this. Elections have consequences and so do failing to win elections. It’s time we got smarter about picking candidates.
One Day To Go...
"Voting is the best revenge."
-President Barack Obama
What is left to say? We have one more day (or two) before we either stay or change our course. These are anxious times, but whatever way the wind blows, we will muddle through. But then again, I prefer to take my directive from President Barack Obama - "Voting is the best revenge"...
Share you thoughts, anxieties, funny stories, anything that will help us get through the next day or two...
Sunday, November 4, 2012
The Great (film) Debates vol. 60
Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn about the cast. . . do it again!Recast Gone with the Wind with current actors.
Click Here To Read Article/Comments at CommentaramaFilms
Saturday, November 3, 2012
3 Days To Go...
"There's never been a day in the last four years I've been proud to be his Vice President! Not one single day. Not one single day!"
- VP Joseph Biden and Teller of truth!
It's getting down to the wire. We're in the final push. We're coming to the end of the line. The buck stops...oh, you get my drift. In three days, we head to the polls to cast our votes in THE most important election of our lives...literally. Collectively, we will be deciding in which direction we will go. Will it be down the dark alley that is leading us to wrack and ruin or back on that main road to recovery?
Just in case you are among the scores of "undecided" voters, here is a LINK to a little quiz that may help aid you in your final decision. (Please note that there are expanded answers if you click "Choose another stance".
Feel free to share your results in the comments! Good luck!
Here are my results, but no peeking until you post yours.
P.S. It is possible that the results of the election in New York will be delayed.. Our laws have a catastrophic event clause that allows counties to to seek permission for a second day of voting within 20 days if there is less than 25% turnout at a polling station as a direct result of a catastrophic event. It has never been invoked.
In New Jersey, people will be voting on mobile voting stations provided by the National Guard in effected areas.
Connecticut voters will be voting as usual. As of today,, only one polling station has been affected and has been moved..
Friday, November 2, 2012
The Wit and Wisdom of Joey B.
Let's face it, Joe Biden is an idiot. Even the late-night shows, as hands-off as they've often been where The One is concerned, have felt free to make fun of his Number Two. Conservatives will long remember such bouts of excrement from Joe as "This is a big f**kin' deal" and "They gonna put y'all back in chains!" and the dignity (or lack thereof) he has brought to the office of Vice President in general. But this has been a particularly bad week for Biden, regardless of ideology. Let's recap.
VPOTUS kicked things off on Tuesday at a campaign office in Florida, where he was asked by a woman whether he would do more to help people like her kid, who is transgendered. Who knows what she had in mind, maybe more restrictive "hate speech" legislation or something. Biden responded by publicly proclaiming that discrimination against the "T" in LGBT is "the civil rights issue of our time." Er, okay. Personally, I could think of a few others that would rank way ahead of it, but good to know the President of the Senate is on top of these things.
But the week was young. Biden followed this up on Wednesday with more idiocy, saying at a campaign rally, "I'm going to give you the whole load today." No doubt many of a vulgar turn of mind were snickering at that statement (I know I was). Then--still in Florida, mind you--he noted the Cleveland Plain Dealer's endorsement of Obama, citing it as one of the major newspapers "in this state." What? What the f**k? Is he trying to channel those corny rock band greetings or something? Has anyone checked to see if he's been jumping off the campaign bus shouting "Hello Cleveland!!!"
Then, outside of Tampa (I guess weird states attract weird politicians), Joe greeted some customers at a restaurant and had the presence of mind to ask one of them, who I assume didn't look lily-white and all, "Are you Indian?" The customer responded that he was an American, to which Biden said, "No, I mean first generation." ????? Now, based on Biden's prior experiences with Indian-Americans, I know he's not trying to be racist or stereotyping or anything with that comment, but come on. However you feel about, say, Sarah Palin, the collective intelligence of Saturday Night Live couldn't have made her out to be this moronic and unaware, and yet here it is on full display. You know, because we didn't want to risk putting idiots like her and McCain in the White House.
But perhaps the tour de force of buffoonery came later, when Biden decided to defend ObamaCare in one of the scariest ways imaginable. He told a Republican voter over the phone, "After it's all over, when your insurance rates go down then you'll vote for me in 2016." Cue collective gulp from all sane people.
Personally, I think it's a toss-up which is worse: that a guy who's been a part of the federal government for decades is so badly informed about a policy any Internet user can dig up the facts of that he believes insurance will be cheaper, or that--God help us--he's hearing the words "President Joe Biden" in his head. Now of course, Biden hears a lot of things in his head, and the chances of him actually becoming Chief Executive are about the same as those of Andrew becoming president of the Rick Santorum Fan Club. But these screw-ups just illustrate the extent to which the guy who might succeed Obama at any moment is a loose cannon. He can't even be trusted to stay on his own party's message; remember that the campaign had to pull him from the tours after his "chains" comment.
Fortunately, it looks like we may only have to put up with his inanity for a couple more months. Bad news for the comics, of course, since Vice-President Slow Joe will be replaced by a truly intelligent and competent person. But it'll be good for America and for the dignity of the office.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
New York and New Jersey - Closed for Renovation
Please give to the Red Cross if you can (www.redcross.org).
On a lighter note, I have been a little pre-occupied for the last few days unsuccessfully chasing down a giant taco. Andrew, the hot sauce idea did not work. Any other ideas about how to subdue a giant taco?
Unknown Election Factors
● Layoffs: Some are wondering if a slightly falling unemployment rate will help Obama. Nope. The official unemployment number isn’t really what matters to people. What matters is how secure they feel personally about their jobs. In that regard, there are 23 million unemployed or underemployed individuals. Not only are those people without jobs, but their presence in the labor force makes others vulnerable to being replaced by lower cost workers and makes it harder for employed persons to find new jobs. That’s called job insecurity.
Moreover, the situation is about to get worse. Because of the military cuts in the last budget deal, defense contractors are issuing pink slips to their workers in massive numbers. Further, a series of mass layoffs appear to be underway, such as UBS laying off 10,000 people. That will scare people across the country.
● Paybacks: Obama has thrown several people under the bus in the past few months to save his rear, and they seem intent on paying him back now. Leaks from the intelligence community cast doubt on Obama’s attempts to shift blame on Libya by claiming they failed to warn him. The intelligence community let it be known that they did warn Obama and he ignored them. Obama also tried to claim there was no request for additional security in Libya. That made Hillary look bad. “Friends of Hillary” have now put out a story claiming that Hillary did request additional security, but her request was shot down. It’s not clear if Americans care about Libya, but these leaks suggest that some people inside the administration think they can hurt Obama with this.
● Minority Turnout: For Obama to win Colorado, he will require heavy Hispanic turnout. For him to win Ohio and Pennsylvania will require heavy black turnout. Neither is a given in this election. Polling has found a lack of enthusiasm for Obama within both groups. Will they turn out? We don’t know. We do know that youth turnout will be way down and that is bad for Obama. This is a true wildcard which can decide the race.
● Jews in Ohio?: Yes, there are around 120,000 Jews in the Cleveland area who typically vote Democratic. But if Romney can pull away parts of the Jewish vote, they can make a big difference in a key state which is expected to be very, very tight.
● Same Day Registration: Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire all allow voters to register and vote on the same day. In 2008, Obama used this to get tons of new voters to turn out on election day, adding about 2% to his totals in those states. His team is hoping to do the same and add 3-4% to his total this time. However, there is no reason to believe that there is the same level of enthusiasm for Obama now as there was in 2008, and it seems unlikely that he can inspire the unregistered to suddenly turn out. Without those voters, the polls show likely and registered voters leaning toward Romney.
● Chrysler: Obama seems intent on hanging his hat on the Detroit bailout. And lucky him, Chrysler just announced that its profits surged 80% over last year. All is good, right? Well, no. Fiat, owner of Chrysler, announced that they are considering shifting Jeep production to China and Italy – although now that Romney used this in an ad, they are trying to backpedal. Still, the damage is done. To paraphrase a line that Obama kept using against Romney: “Obama’s Detroit bailout saved jobs. . . in Italy.” This could do significant harm to Obama’s rustbelt strategy, particularly in Ohio where Jeeps are currently made.
● Hurricane Sandy: No one knows how the hurricane will affect this election. On the one hand, it does give Obama a chance to appear presidential. On the other hand, I doubt that will help because that’s his job and doing his job won’t really get him any sort of bonus points. That said, Obama could spend the last couple days before the election running around promising FEMA money to all of these voters. But then, these are blue states so it can’t really change the outcome.
There is also a question of voter turnout. If the storm is destructive enough, large parts of the solid-blue Northeast may find record low turnout because voters will either be away or unable to get to the polls. That shifts the election to the diehards, which could well produce some Republican surprises.
● Show Me The Money!: Romney has a cash advantage in excess of $50 million right now, which gives him the ability to reach states like Minnesota, which are opening up as competitive. Can money win campaigns? I doubt it.
● Silver State Mormons: Nevada remains close, though it seems to be trending toward Romney now. The key demographic helping Obama are unions and Hispanics. They could decide the state. BUT, there is another group few are considering – Mormons. Nevada is packed with Mormons and if they turn out in large numbers, Romney will win Nevada. Stay tuned.
Anything I missed?
5 Days and counting....
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)