I don't have any analysis to back this up yet... but I think the GOP is gong to hold the House. Here's what's making me think this:
(1) Gerrymandering is a powerful thing and it takes more than a couple poll points to overcome that.
(2) Liberal polling (NBC) says the Democrats have a 9% advantage in the generic poll. But that number falls to 7% for registered voters. NBC didn't report likely voters, who will decide the election, but they usually lean a couple more points to the right. Take out the liberal bias of say 3-4% and you're looking at an advantage of less than 4%, possibly as little as 2%. That's not enough for the Democrats to win because that is a national number, which means millions of Democratic votes get squandered in California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland and places that don't count like D.C., Guam and Puerto Rico.
(3) GOP numbers always improve the closer you get to the election. Right now, GOP intensity is 68% compared to 71% for Democrats. That is a high number for the GOP given the anti-Trump hate and it may yet improve. GOP voters are also more likely to convert intensity into turnout.
(4) Trump's approval rating is as high as it's been. NBC has him at 47%, Rasmussen has him at 51%. Either way, it's never been higher. That's inconsistent with the idea that the public wants to punish the GOP. Something is off here.
(5) I'm on Democratic mailing lists and they are remarkably lackluster and timid at the moment. There has been no rousing call to victory. They are also equally focused on 2020 as 2018, which suggest they are not invested in the present.
(6) The Democrats seem to have lost touch with reality. In several races where the Democrats could win (like Arizona), they seem to be running people who have endorsed terrorism or socialism or other crazy crap, and they don't seem to see the problem with this. That suggests a lot of their people are not in touch with the public.
(7) The Democrats are relying on (single) women, young people and Hispanics to turn out. If they don't, then they lose. I have seen no evidence that these groups ever turn out, no matter how upset they are. Moreover, the Hispanic stuff seems to have fizzled as they have not been deported. Democrats also haven't wooed them until the last few weeks and that apparently generates a cynical response. Young people have disappeared from the news cycle. There is no mention of college cost, the job market is super strong, and there are no young people issues. Even corollary issues like gays and pot are all going their way, so there is no reason for them to turn out.
Single women are the one agitated group, but they have blown a ton of energy on worthless causes the past two years. The pussyhead rally busted on the inertia of "somebody else save me!" MeToo has turned into a gaggle of scandal ridden, in-fighting losers who are losing every little bit they gained, which was never much -- even Harvey Weinstein is going to beat the rap. The Kavanaugh protest was always elitist and hypersensitive... and it again brought a devastating loss. Three movements, each getting smaller and more shrill, combined with each loss getting larger suggests a pattern: narrowing support leading to a spiral of demoralization and cause-abandonment.
(8) The Democrats who would normally be racing to claim credit for the coming victory are all shifting their focus to the future. No one seems to want to claim this baby yet, which suggests there might not be a baby.
None of this is set in stone and I don't have a lot of data to back it up, but these are the hints I'm seeing right now. They suggest lower than expected Democratic turnout and a small GOP victory.
Thoughts?
(1) Gerrymandering is a powerful thing and it takes more than a couple poll points to overcome that.
(2) Liberal polling (NBC) says the Democrats have a 9% advantage in the generic poll. But that number falls to 7% for registered voters. NBC didn't report likely voters, who will decide the election, but they usually lean a couple more points to the right. Take out the liberal bias of say 3-4% and you're looking at an advantage of less than 4%, possibly as little as 2%. That's not enough for the Democrats to win because that is a national number, which means millions of Democratic votes get squandered in California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland and places that don't count like D.C., Guam and Puerto Rico.
(3) GOP numbers always improve the closer you get to the election. Right now, GOP intensity is 68% compared to 71% for Democrats. That is a high number for the GOP given the anti-Trump hate and it may yet improve. GOP voters are also more likely to convert intensity into turnout.
(4) Trump's approval rating is as high as it's been. NBC has him at 47%, Rasmussen has him at 51%. Either way, it's never been higher. That's inconsistent with the idea that the public wants to punish the GOP. Something is off here.
(5) I'm on Democratic mailing lists and they are remarkably lackluster and timid at the moment. There has been no rousing call to victory. They are also equally focused on 2020 as 2018, which suggest they are not invested in the present.
(6) The Democrats seem to have lost touch with reality. In several races where the Democrats could win (like Arizona), they seem to be running people who have endorsed terrorism or socialism or other crazy crap, and they don't seem to see the problem with this. That suggests a lot of their people are not in touch with the public.
(7) The Democrats are relying on (single) women, young people and Hispanics to turn out. If they don't, then they lose. I have seen no evidence that these groups ever turn out, no matter how upset they are. Moreover, the Hispanic stuff seems to have fizzled as they have not been deported. Democrats also haven't wooed them until the last few weeks and that apparently generates a cynical response. Young people have disappeared from the news cycle. There is no mention of college cost, the job market is super strong, and there are no young people issues. Even corollary issues like gays and pot are all going their way, so there is no reason for them to turn out.
Single women are the one agitated group, but they have blown a ton of energy on worthless causes the past two years. The pussyhead rally busted on the inertia of "somebody else save me!" MeToo has turned into a gaggle of scandal ridden, in-fighting losers who are losing every little bit they gained, which was never much -- even Harvey Weinstein is going to beat the rap. The Kavanaugh protest was always elitist and hypersensitive... and it again brought a devastating loss. Three movements, each getting smaller and more shrill, combined with each loss getting larger suggests a pattern: narrowing support leading to a spiral of demoralization and cause-abandonment.
(8) The Democrats who would normally be racing to claim credit for the coming victory are all shifting their focus to the future. No one seems to want to claim this baby yet, which suggests there might not be a baby.
None of this is set in stone and I don't have a lot of data to back it up, but these are the hints I'm seeing right now. They suggest lower than expected Democratic turnout and a small GOP victory.
Thoughts?
15 comments:
BTW, you may notice the disappearance of blacks. That's because they have all be gerrymandered (by agreement with black leaders) into "majority-minority" districts. In other words, all their votes got to black candidates and they don't matter to other races.
Nevertheless, the left seems worried enough about black turnout that they have lobbed a few idiocies in the past few days. In particular, there have been a spate of articles this weekend talking about GOP candidates embracing "white nationalism", the proud boys "racist gang" and "20% of GOP supporters want a return to slavery."
Uh, really? Doubt it. But these things aren't aimed at the brightest people. They are just meant to scaremonger to stir up voters.
hope you are right. But, I won't believe it until I see it actually happen. Democrats are like a bad zombie movie, they keep coming and coming.Even that loopy bop bag Hillary, like a particularly large and nasty cockroach, refuses to die. it would be so good though if we could make it happen.
Jed, I hope they run her again. Hillary and this sh*tbag lawyer for the porn star would be my dream ticket in 2020.
In terms of the election, I don't know if it's going to happen or not, but I'm thinking it will. And if it does, it will be a true indictment of the Democratic Party.
0.00004% of Americans want to return to slavery. 90% of that 0.00004% aren't registered to vote, but of the remaining, 60% are registered GOP. Of that number, two-thirds say George W. Bush was the best recent president. Roughly 1-in-5 registered GOP voters overall say George W. Bush was the best recent president, so we can say that it correlates highly with a desire to return to slavery. STATISTICS!
tryanmax, Sounds about right. And even if we can't bend the numbers enough, we'll just make them up.
BTW, Paul Krugman is whining today that Trump is trying to "de-legitimize" the election in case the Democrats win. And him doing that is an outrage because it creates a super dangerous situation for the country! Oh my!
Of course, the Democrats have tried to do that to every election they've lost since 2000, and I didn't see Krugman worrying about that.
They have no shame.
Yale and MIT should lose their accreditation in economics for graduating such a perpetually-wrong fool.
They should.
I'm amazed he doesn't feel like a fool. If I was that wrong that often, I would seriously reconsider my views. But then, liberals do seem great at ignoring their own flaws, behaviors and failures.
They're actually at fault for all the things they're whining about now, they just don't want to believe it. "Nobody could have seen this coming!" Uh,everyone did, except you.
There seems to be real astonishment among Democrats that the Spanish-speaking brown-people aren't a political monolith. (Wait til they learn that they don't all speak Spanish.) I personally think it's hilarious that Democrats assume Hispanics just want to let in more Hispanics. You know, the way European-Americans eagerly wanted to let in the Irish and Germans a couple-hundred years ago.
Gotta run, so I apologize if this response is scattered. But you're right. They have become so lost in group identity that they genuinely don't understand these strange creatures who don't fit their assigned groups.
The anger with which they wrote these articles about women who weren't part of the sisterhood was almost shocking. Comments like, "But apparently, not all women believe in justice, equality and freedom." Uh...
And look at the utter hatred and contempt poured out on blacks who dare to think independently. Part of that is politics, for sure, it's about maintaining fear to keep people in line. But I think part of it is genuine shock that these people don't think just. like. I. do.
And when it comes to the browns, they are obviously mono-group-ithic. I mean... look at them, right?
This Migrant Caravan is hurting the Dims badly. It's becoming apparent that someone is paying for the food, etc for these 5000-8000 people..and it's the Left. Trump is doing a good job of handling it and he's the one getting the glory, not the Democrats, honestly, there could be a Red Wave in November,,however, I tend not to like that expression. How about Red Riptide.....?
I think the conventional wisdom that Republicans will hold the Senate but lose the House sounds about right. Kavanaugh made red state wins (needed to take the Senate) exceedingly unlikely.
Trump has not reigned in government spending or gored any liberal sacred cows but he does love to spew, which thrills the the talk radio crowd but also seems likely to energize Democrats.
I don't get the disappearance of blacks claim. Black leaders are as common as ever. That being said I don't think any current office holders (be it Corey Booker, Kamala Harris, Mia Love or Tim Scott) will rise higher. There is no such thing as too liberal in the Democratic party but I haven't seen Booker or Harris demonstrate much in the way of charisma and like a lot of conservatives Tim Scott and Mia Love find themselves badly out of step with Trump's party.
I agree with your points about Hispanics. Traditionally they've just been seen as Cuban or non-Cuban for political grouping purposes but I'd be shocked if country of origin, time in the U.S. and race were not huge factors.
Critch, everybody,
The only thing Trump is doing to handle the migrant caravan well is to describe the situation accurately. That includes talking about who is organizing and paying for it. People frustrated with a dishonest press, complicit Dems and conciliatory Republicans love it! The press can't stand it.
In fact, I've picked up a little tell for when Trump has the media dead to rights: they start reporting that Trump has said something "without evidence." I take this as code for things they can't fact-check away. Half the time, it's in reference to matters of opinion or interpretation. Other times, it's about patently obvious things, like Democrats' support of the migrant caravan. Sometimes, it's even about things that have been reported elsewhere in the news! But, you know, Trump didn't provide links in his speech, so where's your evidence, man? It's the Twitter-fication of news.
Also, notice that it's a subtle shift away from "Trump lied." I think that's the result of both of two things. 1) The claim that Trump lied doesn't work to separate him from his base or even keep him from attracting more followers, and 2) Too many things the press claimed were lies turned out not to be.
RE: #metoo
Just saw an insightful post by James Woods. He links to a NYTimes article titled #MeToo Brought Down 201 Powerful Men. Nearly Half of Their Replacements are Women, to which Woods responded, "Which is what this whole deal has really always been about..." (ellipsis in original)
A simple but powerful observation. LINK
tryanmax, That's a pretty decent observation.
As an aside, the #metoo movement, whose leaders are now suing each other, claims that after a year, they "brought down or exposed" over 400 men. As near as I can tell, about 40 men resigned or lost jobs over this and maybe 2-3 were criminally charged (with charges to be dismissed soon). But even if you accept that they managed to bag 400 trophies, that represents 0.000125% of American males. Basically a little more than one in every million.
Your odds of dying in a plane crash are worse 1 in 205k
...dog attack... 1 in 132k
...lightening... 1 in 102k
...choking on food... 1 in 3k
...car crash... 1 in 102
That says a lot about their effectiveness.
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