I got an email asking me if there's a way out of this for the GOP, and I figured I'd answer this with a post. The answer is: yes, several. One involves the "Freedom Caucus" giving in, which won't happen. Another is McCarthy giving in, which apparently won't happen. The "Freedom Caucus" also could choose to abstain, giving the Democrats the win. That actually seems right up their alley. Another involves Democrats abstaining and letting McCarthy win without them. That is probably how this ends.
That said, there is another way this could go which actually presents a tremendous opportunity for the GOP if they choose to grab it.
Here's the thing. Remember these facts:
Then comes the Machiavellian part. McCarthy excludes every one of the twenty from any committee seat and never lets them introduce legislation -- those are seats he trades to Democrats. Not only is this hardball old-school-Democrat style, but he sells it to the public as a means of cleaning the GOP of its ranks of cranks and election deniers. Not only does this solve his problem but it recasts the GOP as centrist, which plays well almost everywhere... and the places where it won't hurt aren't places that will vote Democratic no matter what. So there's little harm.
Will talk radio howl? Of course, but they will howl no matter what. They make money selling fear and purity.
Will the GOP lose some voters? Sure. But there are vast more numbers to gain. Don't forget, Reagan threw out the racists in the early 1980s and the GOP dominated until Clinton moved to GWB's right and got a huge assist from H.Ross Perot.
Won't this result in Democrats getting their policies in place? Well, that's already happening. It's been happening for years. And these 200 GOP House members voting for McCarthy are hardly liberals or RINOs... those are long gone. So I wouldn't worry about that.
Thoughts?
(As a quick aside, McCarthy basically is a Freedom Caucus guy. He's parroted all their views. That might give you a clue about what is going on and whether this is about conservatism or cynicism.)
That said, there is another way this could go which actually presents a tremendous opportunity for the GOP if they choose to grab it.
Here's the thing. Remember these facts:
(1) This is a rump Congress. Nothing will happen because the Senate is deadlocked and Democrat-controlled and Biden runs the White House as a leftist factory of hate and paranoia. So GOP control means very little. The only power they really have is investigative power and the power to send pointless bills to the Senate to die. So power is not an option.Given that, it seems pretty obvious that McCarthy should make a deal with the Democrats. Either some grand unity thing where they split committees and influence, or he can find five swing-district Democrats desperately looking for bipartisan cred. Either way, he trades committee seats for votes. Then he announces to the public that they intend to reach across the aisle in a bipartisan manner and work with the Democrats in this time of Biden-policy-created crisis to solve the nation's problems.
(2) Biden plans to blame the GOP for all his failures because they control the House. He can't do that unless they actually control the House.
(3) The image problem the GOP faces is that it's seen as scary because it has a lot of crazy members. The Lauren Boeberts and Matt Gaetzs are the very crazies that scare people.
Then comes the Machiavellian part. McCarthy excludes every one of the twenty from any committee seat and never lets them introduce legislation -- those are seats he trades to Democrats. Not only is this hardball old-school-Democrat style, but he sells it to the public as a means of cleaning the GOP of its ranks of cranks and election deniers. Not only does this solve his problem but it recasts the GOP as centrist, which plays well almost everywhere... and the places where it won't hurt aren't places that will vote Democratic no matter what. So there's little harm.
Will talk radio howl? Of course, but they will howl no matter what. They make money selling fear and purity.
Will the GOP lose some voters? Sure. But there are vast more numbers to gain. Don't forget, Reagan threw out the racists in the early 1980s and the GOP dominated until Clinton moved to GWB's right and got a huge assist from H.Ross Perot.
Won't this result in Democrats getting their policies in place? Well, that's already happening. It's been happening for years. And these 200 GOP House members voting for McCarthy are hardly liberals or RINOs... those are long gone. So I wouldn't worry about that.
Thoughts?
(As a quick aside, McCarthy basically is a Freedom Caucus guy. He's parroted all their views. That might give you a clue about what is going on and whether this is about conservatism or cynicism.)
4 comments:
Well, I suppose practically, it is a way out. On the other hand, it galls me the GOP can’t get some unity on this. The Democrats went all the way left with their crazies, and what did it do to them. The answer is nothing. I am kind of fed up with all of them, to be honest. All they are about is money to stay in their jobs. But the ring leaders of this revolt are idiots and it is sad to see. - Jed
Jed, I'm fed up with them too... all of them. Our politics is turning into theater meant to disguise the fact that the government really no longer represents average people.
In terms of unity, I'm not the least bit surprised. There is a fundamental difference between our crazies and theirs. Their crazies hate America and see the Democrats as fellow travelers who need to be dragged along. So they push when they can, hide when they need to. It's a strategic game, and the Democrats see it as a chance to triangulate.
Our crazies see the GOP as the enemy and have spent decades attacking it -- kind of like Hitler at the end of the war, who thought he could win the war if he just killed off all the disloyal Germans. The GOP has failed to recognize this and spends its time trying to appease them. The result is spoiled children and hapless parents.
There are reports of the Republicans now starting to negotiate with the Democrats. Hopefully, the Republicans get smart on this and make the embarrassment worthwhile.
As guessed, Matt Gaetz has apparently said that he'd rather that the Democrats won the speakership instead of McCarthy. Surprise.
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