Last night felt good. It's always nice to see the Democrats go down the drain, and it's even nicer to see the public flip the bird to Obama... again. It's nice too to see the sedate/depressed looks on the faces of the MSM journalists as they spin a clear repudiation of Obama and his Democratic allies into a general anti-politics malaise. D-E-N-I-A-L. Anyways, here are some thoughts.
● Nothing Really Changed: Sadly, not much changed last night. There was no evidence of a political sea change in the country, meaning the public didn’t throw the Democrats out or embrace a new way. There certainly wasn’t a wave like we saw in 1980, 1994, 2008 or 2010 giving the outside party the chance to fundamentally change the direction of the country.
Even worse, this election, like most off-year elections, was about voter turnout. Blacks, the young and other Democrats didn’t turn out. The gender gap shrank last night. Generally apolitical people didn’t turn out either. So basically, this election involved hardcore partisans and those seeking to send a message to Obama. That won’t be true in 2016. If minorities and casual voters showed up last night, the GOP likely would have lost most of the races they won. That bodes poorly for our chances in 2016. In other words, this is not a victory so much as a chance to win the trust we need to win to earn a victory in 2016. That means, we need to be smart from hereon out.
● Democratic Response: Look for the Democrats to become insanely hostile. For one thing, they understand the demographic issue with their loses last night being the result of voter turnout, and they know that if they don’t change a thing, they are likely to win big in 2016. Hence, their primary goal will be to frustrate the GOP. Meanwhile, it will pay for them to have Obama push hard and fast to the left at the executive level now, which will let them reconnect with blacks, feminists and young voters while appearing to triangulate Obama for the middle class.
The one interesting question will be if they try a new approach to the “war on __” meme. Democrats need to reconnect with blacks, feminists and young voters and it is obvious that their attempts to smear the GOP on abortion and voting rights didn’t turn these people out. Basically, a full-court “war on __” press didn’t work, so they will need to try something new.
I think this means they let Obama do a lot of dirty work over the next year and a half as they comment carefully to avoid their positions being witnesses by the public at large. First up, immigration. Other examples include Executive Orders requiring equal pay for women, banning corporations from giving to politicians, imposing a severe carbon tax, tax hikes on the rich, gay marriage, backing racial gerrymandering, etc.
● The Obama Drag: CNN noted that Obama spent his time going to states where the Democrats were supposed to win, like Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. Every one of those states except Pennsylvania either went Republican or was unexpectedly close. Interesting. But remember, 2016 will not be about Obama.
● The Agenda: I’ve been saying for some time that the GOP needs a real agenda. Many people will now demand that the GOP put just such an agenda into place (others will demand a harsher agenda). The problem is this, however: it will be impossible for the GOP to pass anything with Obama having the power to veto whatever he wants.
At this point, the smart move will be for the GOP to put together the happiest sounding, most popular parts of an agenda and send them up one by one for votes every couple weeks so that (1) the public will begin to associate an agenda with the GOP, (2) the public will see the Democrats standing in the way of an agenda they like, and (3) it will make Obama and the Democrats look like obstructionists.
Also, anyone who accuses the GOP of failing to implement anything needs to be savagely beaten about the hear and shoulders with a frozen penguin. And it will be impossible to shut down the government without the blame for that falling on the GOP. Hence, the key will be to market an agenda rather than trying to look macho.
● Blah Blah Blah: By the time you read this, talk radio will no doubt be spinning this election as follows: The RINOs told us that if we trusted them, they would win a landslide election. We trusted them and they barely won last night! Moreover, almost all the RINOs got destroyed. If it hadn’t been for good solid conservatives winning their elections by a landslide, this would have been a RINO disaster. So stop listening to them. We need to foam at the mouth and force our agenda through. We need to investigate Obama’s crimes and shut down the government.
Uh... no.
These people lost. They lost because you can’t win the public by pushing fringe ideas and by being angry about it. In losing, they did their best to wage a war against the GOP for the past 3-4 years. They tried very hard to destroy most of the candidates who won easy re-election. They said things that made it easy for the Democrats to turn out their voters. They spent money attacking the GOP, but never spent money helping the GOP – even after the primaries were over. They didn’t vote because they wanted to prove that the GOP could not win except with their candidates.
But the GOP fought back and crushed them. These fringers lost, and in the process made themselves irrelevant. It is stupid to listen to the people who did nothing by try to sabotage tonight’s victory on how we should proceed next.
And don’t let them create a false narrative either. Do not let them tell you that somehow the “RINOs” (read – anyone they dislike) blew this election. It was moderate, sane candidates who went out there and won the public’s trust. It was guys like Cory Gardner who defused the “war on women” attacks, not Ted Cruz, and who took down the best the Democrats had to offer. It was our silence on angry issues that denied the Democrats what they needed to take down the GOP.
Don’t let these losers, who have been wrong and disloyal every single step of the way, now tell you that we should embrace their ideas in victory. Forget it. Don’t let these losers tell you that the things that doomed us in 2012 and drove us to near extinction in 2013 should become our agenda.
● Hillary Is Finished: Finally, this election was a repudiation of Obama, but not the Democrats at a whole. That sets up nicely for Hillary to come along as a return to the good old days of Democratic rule. That makes her a winner tonight... a big winner.
Only, it doesn’t.
I suspect this result will radicalize the Democrats even more and that will make Hillary the odd-man-out. If I’m right, this means Hillary is toast. Every time she’s tried to act like a radical, it’s blown up on her... with the latest being her embarrassing dance of shame to backtrack on her “business doesn’t create jobs” comment. This election will likely push the Democrats into the arms of their won radicals and away from their establishment types like Hillary.
All told, I think the odds of Hillary winning the primary just fell in half and will get worse and worse with each executive order Obama issues and each snide roadblock Reid tries.
Thoughts?
● Nothing Really Changed: Sadly, not much changed last night. There was no evidence of a political sea change in the country, meaning the public didn’t throw the Democrats out or embrace a new way. There certainly wasn’t a wave like we saw in 1980, 1994, 2008 or 2010 giving the outside party the chance to fundamentally change the direction of the country.
Even worse, this election, like most off-year elections, was about voter turnout. Blacks, the young and other Democrats didn’t turn out. The gender gap shrank last night. Generally apolitical people didn’t turn out either. So basically, this election involved hardcore partisans and those seeking to send a message to Obama. That won’t be true in 2016. If minorities and casual voters showed up last night, the GOP likely would have lost most of the races they won. That bodes poorly for our chances in 2016. In other words, this is not a victory so much as a chance to win the trust we need to win to earn a victory in 2016. That means, we need to be smart from hereon out.
● Democratic Response: Look for the Democrats to become insanely hostile. For one thing, they understand the demographic issue with their loses last night being the result of voter turnout, and they know that if they don’t change a thing, they are likely to win big in 2016. Hence, their primary goal will be to frustrate the GOP. Meanwhile, it will pay for them to have Obama push hard and fast to the left at the executive level now, which will let them reconnect with blacks, feminists and young voters while appearing to triangulate Obama for the middle class.
The one interesting question will be if they try a new approach to the “war on __” meme. Democrats need to reconnect with blacks, feminists and young voters and it is obvious that their attempts to smear the GOP on abortion and voting rights didn’t turn these people out. Basically, a full-court “war on __” press didn’t work, so they will need to try something new.
I think this means they let Obama do a lot of dirty work over the next year and a half as they comment carefully to avoid their positions being witnesses by the public at large. First up, immigration. Other examples include Executive Orders requiring equal pay for women, banning corporations from giving to politicians, imposing a severe carbon tax, tax hikes on the rich, gay marriage, backing racial gerrymandering, etc.
● The Obama Drag: CNN noted that Obama spent his time going to states where the Democrats were supposed to win, like Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. Every one of those states except Pennsylvania either went Republican or was unexpectedly close. Interesting. But remember, 2016 will not be about Obama.
● The Agenda: I’ve been saying for some time that the GOP needs a real agenda. Many people will now demand that the GOP put just such an agenda into place (others will demand a harsher agenda). The problem is this, however: it will be impossible for the GOP to pass anything with Obama having the power to veto whatever he wants.
At this point, the smart move will be for the GOP to put together the happiest sounding, most popular parts of an agenda and send them up one by one for votes every couple weeks so that (1) the public will begin to associate an agenda with the GOP, (2) the public will see the Democrats standing in the way of an agenda they like, and (3) it will make Obama and the Democrats look like obstructionists.
Also, anyone who accuses the GOP of failing to implement anything needs to be savagely beaten about the hear and shoulders with a frozen penguin. And it will be impossible to shut down the government without the blame for that falling on the GOP. Hence, the key will be to market an agenda rather than trying to look macho.
● Blah Blah Blah: By the time you read this, talk radio will no doubt be spinning this election as follows: The RINOs told us that if we trusted them, they would win a landslide election. We trusted them and they barely won last night! Moreover, almost all the RINOs got destroyed. If it hadn’t been for good solid conservatives winning their elections by a landslide, this would have been a RINO disaster. So stop listening to them. We need to foam at the mouth and force our agenda through. We need to investigate Obama’s crimes and shut down the government.
Uh... no.
These people lost. They lost because you can’t win the public by pushing fringe ideas and by being angry about it. In losing, they did their best to wage a war against the GOP for the past 3-4 years. They tried very hard to destroy most of the candidates who won easy re-election. They said things that made it easy for the Democrats to turn out their voters. They spent money attacking the GOP, but never spent money helping the GOP – even after the primaries were over. They didn’t vote because they wanted to prove that the GOP could not win except with their candidates.
But the GOP fought back and crushed them. These fringers lost, and in the process made themselves irrelevant. It is stupid to listen to the people who did nothing by try to sabotage tonight’s victory on how we should proceed next.
And don’t let them create a false narrative either. Do not let them tell you that somehow the “RINOs” (read – anyone they dislike) blew this election. It was moderate, sane candidates who went out there and won the public’s trust. It was guys like Cory Gardner who defused the “war on women” attacks, not Ted Cruz, and who took down the best the Democrats had to offer. It was our silence on angry issues that denied the Democrats what they needed to take down the GOP.
Don’t let these losers, who have been wrong and disloyal every single step of the way, now tell you that we should embrace their ideas in victory. Forget it. Don’t let these losers tell you that the things that doomed us in 2012 and drove us to near extinction in 2013 should become our agenda.
● Hillary Is Finished: Finally, this election was a repudiation of Obama, but not the Democrats at a whole. That sets up nicely for Hillary to come along as a return to the good old days of Democratic rule. That makes her a winner tonight... a big winner.
Only, it doesn’t.
I suspect this result will radicalize the Democrats even more and that will make Hillary the odd-man-out. If I’m right, this means Hillary is toast. Every time she’s tried to act like a radical, it’s blown up on her... with the latest being her embarrassing dance of shame to backtrack on her “business doesn’t create jobs” comment. This election will likely push the Democrats into the arms of their won radicals and away from their establishment types like Hillary.
All told, I think the odds of Hillary winning the primary just fell in half and will get worse and worse with each executive order Obama issues and each snide roadblock Reid tries.
Thoughts?
19 comments:
I think Anthony was right some time ago when he said that the War on Women only works when the GOP is in full-stupid, foaming at the mouth, hate mode. when they keep their crazy members in check at the primaries, it fails.
"Also, anyone who accuses the GOP of failing to implement anything needs to be savagely beaten about the hear and shoulders with a frozen penguin."
That is an… interesting punishment.
"Frozen penguin"? Where did that come from?
"Look like obstructionists"?
Nah, that won't be too difficult. We just need to make it stick, squarely, in the public's eyes. I'd start with the newly minted Senate Majority leader stating they're proud to be presenting the President with their first budget since God knows how long? Well, maybe work on the wording on the end of the sentence, but keep the sentiment intact. ;)
Kit, Frozen penguins are the weapon of choice among the hip. ;-)
I agree with you and Anthony -- the war on women bit only works when the GOP keeps feeding the media the ammo to support the claim. By failing to play the "what is rape" game, by not breaking down into tears over abortion, and by pushing to make birth control more available, the GOP made the whole charge sound political. By instead joking about rape, by pushing to ban abortion and birth control, and by attacking young women as "sluts," the GOP made it an easy sale in 2012 even as it was obvious that Romney would never say agree with any of that.
Eric, I think the key is the steady drip of obstruction. Send a clear (or hard to see how it's not clean) bill to Obama's desk every week with some new provision of the agenda and watch him veto each and the perception will stick.
If on the other hand they send it all twenty times as the same bill or they include poison pills, then the public will see this as political maneuvering on their parts.
I agree with Andrew that a low turnout election doesn't signify a political sea change, but I am very encouraged by the fact it was mostly the Democrats saying insane things.
On a related note, I don't know the absolute numbers, but there are quite a few Republican women and minorities are in office nowadays. Both parties tend to show their ass when dealing with such politicians which will mean that the Democrats will alienate some women by say, calling a female Republican a whore...
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/sc-dem-challenger-calls-nikki-haley-whore-campaign-blames-thick-accent/
Anthony, As the number of minorities grows in GOP ranks, the ability of the Democrats to play the demographic games will start to fail.
I was happy too that it was the Democrats saying all the insane stuff this cycle. Let's hope it gets worse for them!
I love it when Democrats show their nasty. Imagine if the GOP nominated Jindal or Haley, even for Vice President. The Left would go insane.
Mia Love won in Utah and is now the first Repub African-American woman elected to Congress...Elise Stefanik (R) won in NY-21 as is now the youngest woman to be elected to Congress. That "War on Women" is getting really depressing for the Dems...since the results of this "war" seems to have backfired by defeating Dem women and electing Repub women.
"Well now the Tea Party owns the country and now the Koch Brothers do too. Watch as Social Security, Medicare, Medicade, Food Stamps and other government funded thing disappear. Companies will soon no longer have to carry insurance on employees. All safety laws with will be gotten rid of. Child labor law will be done away with and soon there will be no minimun wage at all. Hope you all like working for nothing"
This is a great comment on HuffPo! I was not aware that we were going to do away with child labor laws and the minimum wage?? And we are going to do away with SS, Medicare, Medicade [sic] Food stamps and all other government funding too! Why did no one tell me? If I had known all of that was going to happen I would have voted twice!
All that imagined "damage" while genuinely detrimental actions and inactions happen via Democrat "leadership." Oh, the disconnect.
Oh, btw, I have it on the best of authority that penguins cannot actually freeze. So when you would say that the so-called "hip" use them to beat people...well, THAT, sir is just a specious lie!
Bev, It takes a really powerful freezer to freeze a penguin.
Here's some fun facts - George P. Bush won in Texas in his first statewide race as Land Commissioner (the only Bush to win a first election)...Jason Carter lost in Georgia in his first bid for Gov after 2 terms as state senator...hmmmm.
So...I've been listening to NPR much of the day. You can almost hear them choking back sobs. The new narrative they are working on today (actually, they were laying groundwork earlier) is that having GOP control of both houses will only lead to more gridlock in Washington. Of course, this won't be the Democrats' fault, as they solemnly vow to work with the new leadership and not obstruct as they were obstructed. (Pay no attention to the crossed fingers behind the back.) They clearly have filibuster on the brain, because they swear up and down that they have no intention of using it. I even learned today that all those House-passed bills that the Senate hasn't voted on are actually languishing on Ted Cruz's desk and not Harry Reid's, after all. What a relief! It's pretty clear where this is headed: anything the Dems do to block Republicans will only be because they have to do it. Opposition is noble once again, and the lame duck session has just begun. And as soon as 0bama starts vetoing things left and right, the Dems will again blame Republicans for not sending better bills. So, yeah, I agree completely that the GOP will have to work the next two years on passing bills that are clean as a whistle (whatever that means) in order to make the Dems look like horned devils. As for the "big issues" like immigration reform, I'm afraid the best thing the GOP can do is make the case to the public that they are trying to come up with a bill that the president will sign, but that he seems intent on going his own way. It's not a great line, but I expect it to be the actual case.
In other hilarious news, 0bama urges us all to consider the 2/3 of Americans who are eligible to vote but just didn't. Apparently, he's their president now, and he knows just what they're hankering for. That's a great platform. "I represent the voices that don't want to be heard!"
>>"I represent the voices that don't want to be heard!">>
"Leading from behind" has many alternate definitions.
Being a mid-term election it is hard to pull out any clear messages. The average number of senate seats lost is about 5 so this was above average but the dems had a huge number to defend and many were put in on Obama coattails. I think many of the worst were thrown out (i.e. Mark Uterus).
I also agree that these results make a Hillary win difficult. What dems learned is to get many of their voters out you need a strong personality such as Obama to motivate them.
I see this as an overall win for the GOP establishment because they learned that you cannot win with crazy candidates. I am shocked at the resurgence of the Colorado GOP. Even if they didn't win the governorship, it was much, much closer than I expected.
Finally, for those who didn't get the pleasure of multiple Mark Uterus ads with crying concerned women who are worried that won't get their birth control or be able to abort at will, perhaps we have seen then end of this? Probably not but maybe a ratcheting down. For those who didn't experience it, it was awful. They even showed up during football games. Who the flip wants to talk about birth control during a bronco game! That god for DVR.
I am pleasantly surprised. 35 out of 50 states will have governors in the GOP.
That alone should convince those on the left that their failing programs are opposed by most voters.
Add gains in the House and a majority of republicans in the Senate, as well as a gain in even pure blue states by the GOP state legislators and the message from most voters couldn't be more clear.
I'm also happy that even though the dems outspent the GOP tjey still lost big time, and wasted all their money, lol.
By all means, democrats, keep repeating the same mistakes.
Next election the left has to come up with new words to hide their agenda.
Oh, I was also very impressed by the GOP GOTV ground game. They finally learned their lesson after the 2012 debacle irt having a strong ground strategy.
Post a Comment