Future-Thinking

I often think about the future. "How long is this pizza going to take?!" Just kidding. I do think about the future though and the headline about an MIT computer predicting the end of civilization as we know it in 2040 gives us a good chance to make some predictions. First, let's dismiss the MIT computer.

The MIT computer program was written in the early 1970's and it predicts that based on the out-of-control rise of the earth's population, growing pollution, and the lack of new resources, mankind is doomed. And 2040 is the year of that doom, with our population becoming unsustainable and then crashing, presumably to oblivion.

The problem is, this is all BS. This is as laughable as the movie "Soylent Green" which whines about New York City and the other big cities on the Northeast coast merging into one giant city of 23 million people! It's so crowded that people are constantly touching shoulder to shoulder and everyone is starving! Oh no! But of course, their view of overcrowing is ridiculous. New York has 23.7 million people today and none of this is true. Texas is 171 million acres, so you can literally move everyone in the US onto a half-acre plot each in Texas and leave the rest of the US empty with room to spare in Texas. What's more the world's biggest (and most prosperous) cities are larger than 23 million people today... and nobody's living shoulder to shoulder or starving.

It's the same problem with the MIT computer. According to EPA date, pollution is WAY down from the 1970s. Just to give you a sense, even since 1990:

Carbon Monoxide is down 77%
Lead is down 80%
Nitrogen Dioxide is down 56%
Particulate matter in the air is down 40%
Sulfur Dioxide is down 88%

And they were already way down from the 1970's. The MIT computer seems to think these are going up. Population growth has slowed dramatically and will soon start to decline (I don't know of anywhere that has even a growth-sustaining birthrate). Food, a vital resource, has soared. The World Bank says yearly food production has grown 700% since 1961. Oil production is up 40% since 1980 despite repeated claims of reaching peak oil. Natural gas is up just over 100%. Biofuels didn't even exist in the 1970s. Solar was nothing and is today starting to become significant. We're nowhere near tapped out on Uranium. So basically, every single factor the MIT program relied upon in seeing the end of the world was wrong.

But hey, if you want to panic, feel free. The media loves a good panic.

Anyways, let's talk about the real future. It's going to be interesting... and difficult.

Here's the thing. Believe it or not, there isn't a single job that a machine can't replace. Let's start with the obvious. A vast number of jobs are already gone to things you didn't even notice, like word processors which wiped out the ranks of secretaries and typing pools. Digging and lifting machines wiped out basic labor. Let's call this Phase One of the Robotic Era, shall we? In this age, labor saving devices still operated by humans (a forklift, a word processor, a car) wiped out a vast number of menial jobs.

In Phase Two, those devices become more intelligent. Indeed, as robots get more sophisticated, they are increasingly able to take over all the physical labor jobs that used to require human dexterity and human judgment. Most things can be built by robots now. Kiosks can replace service workers... in fact, the McDonalds ones are snazzy. Soon, you will have self-driving cars wiping out truck drivers, bus drivers and cab drivers. Even surgeons are using surgical machines now. Because we don't trust them yet, most machines still need a human supervisor, but that is what the human is becoming -- a supervisor, not an operator. This is where we are now.

In Phase Three, AI will become capable enough of controlling these machines without a human supervisor. Factories and places with limited human interaction will be automated because there is no need to have a human involved. A smart AI can control the machines better than a person. This means places like banks and fast food and anything that could be run as a kiosk will become automated. Humans will be left just managing operations rather than supervising specific machines.

In Phase Four, more "intelligent" jobs will vanish. A lawyer machine with the proper algorithm and access to a legal database will give better results than all but the most creative humans. Banks, accountants will all be run by AIs, with human control limited to the very top. Think of it this way: a Board of five humans oversees the AI which runs the other AIs which manage the bank's processes and control its branches. There is no need for human involvement. In fact, I think you will find that humans become an inferior choice to using AIs at this phase because AIs have access to greater knowledge and their decisions are less subject to bias, ego or random influence.

This is when things start to go wrong. With no need for humans in most industries, there is no need for employees. In fact, the only ones needed at this point are those with the creativity to give the machines purpose. So what do you do with the rest? With no jobs, do you hand them money? Or does money go away and we enter a sort of machine-based communist era? After all, communism does work when you have enough slaves. I think at this point, you see the end of human society as we know it and the world becomes a guilded cage of welfare. What do the humans do? Well, you say, we do sports, arts, entertainment!

Only, most people can't do that even if they had all the chances in the world to do it. So I suspect most people will simply become little more than what we see in the ranks of billionaire's children today -- worthless hedonists who turn to parties, drugs and other destructive ways to pass time. Sadly, that's what human nature suggests.

Moreover, sports, arts and entertainment won't offer a refuge for long because of Phase Five.

Phase Five is when AI's finally become creative enough that human input is no longer needed to give the machines purpose or let them meet unexpected challenges. This is the end for what's left of human endeavor.

Take sports. I've long wondered why women's sports almost never come near the popularity of men's sports. Is it sexism? I don't think so. I think the answer lies in the pyramid of popularity. If I had to describe the popularity of a sport (let's take soccer), it seems to flow from World Class Event (i.e. Word Cup) to best professional leagues (British, German) to best college leagues to women's leagues to local high schools to kids. What causes this? Talent. Humans seem to be drawn to the groups with the most talent. Sadly, once people start offering robot versions of sports, I think this desire to watch the best will lead to the relegation of humans to second tier and eventual hobbyist only. You could say that humans will always play in college leagues, but do you really need colleges if no one is going to have a job?

In terms of arts and entertainment, the same holds true, and I think CGI has already shown us that "fake" will have an advantage over the much more limited "real." Moreover, as AIs are developed to the point of being able to exercise creativity, they should pretty easily surpass humans in the arts. Indeed, look today and you'll see that films that could have been written by algorithms are dominating the box office and "artistic" films languish. How long this Phase takes to arrive will depend on how long it takes to write creative AIs, but it will arrive. And after that, I see little left for humans to do.

Phase One: Human Operator
Phase Two: Human Supervisor
Phase Three: Human Manager
Phase Four: Only Creative Humans Needed
Phase Five: No Human Needed

Ultimately, I'm not trying to be pessimistic. What this means is that humans will need to find other ways to shape society rather than the "work for a living" model we use today. As policy makers, people need to start considering this too.

Thoughts?