This has been an interesting couple days. I think Trump may have won the election and Europe is about to change forever.
On the first point, we've had the failure of impreachment... uh, impeachment. Not only did it not help the Democrats, but the polls are suggesting that the opposition is actually growing. This seems backed up by three things: (1) Republican unity, which only happens when all the scaredycats are 100% sure they can't get hurt, (2) the downplaying of impeachment in Democratic ranks -- the media is almost ignoring it, the Democrats are rushing out to make other announcements, and there are open admissions that lots of Democrats will be voting against it, and (3) a growing number of angry, angry articles blaming the Democrats for their tactics and whining that they actually helped Trump. //snicker snicker This looks like it may save Trump.
At the same time though, to save their butts, Pelosi gave Trump a victory on the new NAFTA. Yes, there are articles today talking about how Trump didn't get everything he wanted and the Democrats really got the things they asked for blah blah blah, but they fundamentally misunderstand the math on this. The people who cared about changing NAFTA were white, male union workers in the battleground states. This treaty delivers on a promise to them from Trump. What's more, the Democratic additions were all pro-union. So the union guys got what they wanted. And while the Democrats will try to claim it was them and not Trump who gave it to them, that's not how politics works. Presidents get the credit/blame for treaties and this will help Trump with the very people he needs to win states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It seems this will hand him the election.
Then we have this, Trump has announced a deal with China. Who cares about this? Well, the stock market. But even more so, farmers who had been bearing the brunt of the trade war. If China does buy more manufactured or farmed goods from the US, that again helps Trump with the very voters he needs in midwestern states like Iowa and Wisconsin.
In effect, the last couple days have shored up Trump's support with the very people I was afraid he was losing and I think he needs to be seen as most likely to win the battleground states now.
Then we have the British election. This was fascinating to me because Brexit was always a bit of a surprise that it passed, and it seemed that the British public had major remorse after the election demanding it. Then you have a years-long war of smugness against it by British elites. That seems like a change of heart should be coming. Yet, last night the British public overwhelmingly destroyed the left to make sure that Brexit happens. What interests me about this for us is that it suggest that "the public" (worldwide) is no longer willing to be led by the elites, especially when they get smug. We've been similar in the last couple election cycles and the British election suggests that despite the unity of media opinion, the public will rally behind Trump.
Thoughts?
On the first point, we've had the failure of impreachment... uh, impeachment. Not only did it not help the Democrats, but the polls are suggesting that the opposition is actually growing. This seems backed up by three things: (1) Republican unity, which only happens when all the scaredycats are 100% sure they can't get hurt, (2) the downplaying of impeachment in Democratic ranks -- the media is almost ignoring it, the Democrats are rushing out to make other announcements, and there are open admissions that lots of Democrats will be voting against it, and (3) a growing number of angry, angry articles blaming the Democrats for their tactics and whining that they actually helped Trump. //snicker snicker This looks like it may save Trump.
At the same time though, to save their butts, Pelosi gave Trump a victory on the new NAFTA. Yes, there are articles today talking about how Trump didn't get everything he wanted and the Democrats really got the things they asked for blah blah blah, but they fundamentally misunderstand the math on this. The people who cared about changing NAFTA were white, male union workers in the battleground states. This treaty delivers on a promise to them from Trump. What's more, the Democratic additions were all pro-union. So the union guys got what they wanted. And while the Democrats will try to claim it was them and not Trump who gave it to them, that's not how politics works. Presidents get the credit/blame for treaties and this will help Trump with the very people he needs to win states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It seems this will hand him the election.
Then we have this, Trump has announced a deal with China. Who cares about this? Well, the stock market. But even more so, farmers who had been bearing the brunt of the trade war. If China does buy more manufactured or farmed goods from the US, that again helps Trump with the very voters he needs in midwestern states like Iowa and Wisconsin.
In effect, the last couple days have shored up Trump's support with the very people I was afraid he was losing and I think he needs to be seen as most likely to win the battleground states now.
Then we have the British election. This was fascinating to me because Brexit was always a bit of a surprise that it passed, and it seemed that the British public had major remorse after the election demanding it. Then you have a years-long war of smugness against it by British elites. That seems like a change of heart should be coming. Yet, last night the British public overwhelmingly destroyed the left to make sure that Brexit happens. What interests me about this for us is that it suggest that "the public" (worldwide) is no longer willing to be led by the elites, especially when they get smug. We've been similar in the last couple election cycles and the British election suggests that despite the unity of media opinion, the public will rally behind Trump.
Thoughts?
3 comments:
I'm not saying Trump was able to time anything with regards to NAFTA 2 or China--because there are obviously too many other players involved--but I have noted that the closer these things happen to election, the better it is for Trump.
Normally, I'd say 11 months out is too far from election day for a political win to have much sway, but we have two mitigating factors. First is the scope of these deals. They're just too big to be quickly and easily forgotten. Second is Trump himself. It's arguable that he's the best salesman to ever take up residence in the White House.
An added bonus for Trump is that Democrats are trying to spin NAFTA 2 as a victory for them. If they don't wise up, they'll be talking about it into November and effectively campaigning for Trump as a result. Now, let's see if The Don can finally get some momentum for that infrastructure deal.
tryanmax, I think this one will stick because it's aimed right at a certain set of people who won't forget. This isn't a general interest thing that get forgotten, this is something they'll talk about and watch the implementation.
As for the Democrats, they will try to push it as an accomplishment to the same people, but their race and gender push is so odious that I think they are a nonstarter with these voters.
That is good news regarding NAFTA 2 and China! Trump could really stand to pick his battles and how he fights them better but he knows how much the rustbelt working class helped him win so I figured he'd have some way to help them in return. It's too early to say anything, especially if the suburban women problem that he and the GOP has keeps getting worse between now and then, but it is a significant feather in his cap. I agree that the Democrats' inevitable identity politics push (which I imagine will go all the way up to 1111 if Warren is the nominee) is going to repulse the rustbelt working class as well. Most working class men don't take well to things like articles from smug urban liberals about how to tell people like them that they have (white of course) privilege, especially the ones living paycheck to paycheck.
Still, I see Johnson and Brexit's victory as a good sign for Trump as much as anything and it goes with some observations I've seen from other commentators that I read, too, Sarah Hoyt in particular. The leftist political and cultural elites have finally pushed the working class too far with both their asinine policies and dismissing and/or attacking the working class' concerns as being the result of isms and phobias and they're hitting back, whether it's through electing guys like Trump and Johnson, more...animated protests like the French gilets jaunes and Dutch farmers, or even adding "And Epstein didn't kill himself" to a variety of memes, political or no. We're looking at a watershed moment in history for sure here and I don't think it's going to be limited to Europe.
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