Wednesday, August 10, 2022

Trump v. FBI

Here are my current thoughts on the FBI thing.

(1) Obviously, Trump is a piece of sh*t.

(2) Obviously, the left is OBSESSED with Trump to a shocking degree, even for them.

(3) Politically, this raid by the FBI is a cluster of epic proportions. Why? This makes the FBI look terrible. This reeks of a politicized hit. It is the sort of thing the FBI needs to be above to have any credibility. Add the fact that (1) it was exposed that their last investigation of Trump (Russian election interference) was conducted by two lovers who were anti-Trump and wanted to bring him down and the FBI did little to stop them. (2) The former FBI director harassed Trump and then went on an anti-Trump talk show and book writing bender after being removed from office. (3) It's funny how they never seem to be able to find any crimes committed by Democrats even when it is beyond clear those Democrats committed crimes. Hillary's emails are just one example. So was Hillary's campaign hacking into White House computers -- far far worse than this. Yet, the FBI turned a blind eye. And look at Hunter Biden. It is clear/certain that he was taking bribes from foreign powers for favors done by his father who was getting part of the bribes. It is clear he was doing drugs with hookers as he carried around a laptop with top secret documents he could only have gotten from his father... and then lost the laptop. Yet, again, the FBI does nothing. In fact, it tried to cover it up. It is clear the FBI will pursue those who are politically out of favor but will protect those who are not. They have no credibility anymore.

(4) The left is falling all over themselves to explain how this wasn't biased, but they are lying. Look at the following quotes from an article rushed out by "legal experts" and my comments below that. My comments come from reality as an attorney who has dealt with these things:
"Former FBI agents, including one who’s already investigated Trump, and ex-federal prosecutors told Yahoo News that obtaining a search warrant is a lengthy, difficult process, designed to be immune to political pressures."
Not true. You can get one in minutes and it takes almost nothing. I've seen them gotten over the phone with the agent talking about vague conclusions based on years of experience.
"The bureaucratic, box-ticking process by which the FBI obtains a warrant under ordinary circumstances is complicated enough, they maintain, without factoring in the enormity of sniffing around an ex-president’s digs."
"'To obtain a search warrant, you need two things,' according to Barbara L. McQuade, the former U.S attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan. 'You have to have conducted a sufficient investigation beforehand to demonstrate probable cause that a specific crime has been committed, and you need to show convincingly that evidence of that crime will be found at the location. These are not blind fishing expeditions.'"
True, but false. Probable cause is all an officer needs to get one and it can be manufactured with any statement by a witness including the agents themselves swearing that in their experience this search will likely yield results. Once the National Archives said Trump turned over documents but not all of them, that gave the FBI enough to find probable cause anywhere they want to search. All the words this woman uses are meant to distract. A specific crime means you can point to the code book to name the crime, e.g. Speeding. "Convincingly" is double speak, it just means your probable cause makes sense to the judge. A "sufficient investigation beforehand" means nothing at all, just that you looked and saw or heard something to give you probable cause. "I saw him unload boxes on television" is "sufficient investigation." Probable cause here is no different than what it takes a cop to pull you over and search your car. He crossed the white line. He was driving erratically. I smelled a substance I believed was drugs. He was driving in the part of town where drugs are sold (I've seen that one work). Probable cause simply means rational reason to believe there is evidence of a crime here. Only the dumbest of cops can't find probable cause, especially when you can judge shop to find a friendly one like the FBI does.
"Political affiliation, as a matter of Department of Justice policy, cannot have any influence on that process."
And yet, it does routinely. This is also contradicted by the very next statement in the article:
"Given the sensitivity of this case, McQuade said, Wray will have almost certainly been briefed in detail and had to have approved the move to obtain a search warrant for Mar-a-Lago. Even then, there was never any guarantee it would be granted."
So, you can't worry about political affiliation, but this would need to go through the head of the FBI's office because it involves someone important, i.e. political sensitivity. So, uh, it does matter?
"The warrant was issued by a federal magistrate judge in Florida. 'Even if you don’t believe politics isn’t involved in criminal investigations,' McQuade said, 'magistrate judges tend to be especially neutral and detached, because they’re selected by U.S. district court judges – entire benches – and so you end up with people who are really quite moderate.'"
Good grief. I have yet to deal with a magistrate who isn't political or biased in some direction. That idea that these people are moderate is laughable. Has this woman never been to court? Or is she lying?

I have been involved in the process from the law enforcement side. I have friends on each side. I've dealt with dozens of judges and magistrates. I've worked with FBI people. None of the claims of difficulty and lack of bias above are true. This is pretending that the existence of procedure prevents substantive bias. It does not. And the left will tell you this when it involves black guys going to jail or wiretaps against Muslims. Yet somehow, now that we are talking Trump, these same failed procedures are sacrosanct?

(5) The real disaster here is that this will save Trump. Trump was done. Outside of CPAC, not a lot of conservatives or Republicans wanted him back. This makes him a victim of the system and people will rally around him... at least until the election.

(6) Talk of this sparking a civil war is nonsense. That's theater for commentators and people trying to garner ratings.



tryanmax said...

I really like the point about how procedure doesn't stop bias when it comes to minorities, but somehow it's supposed to prevent political bias. I'm going to drop that on some folks. The idea that magistrates are magic is also kinda funny.

I definitely see a rally effect for Trump from this. I don't know that it can last until 2024, but it could certainly last until this November. That wouldn't be so bad.

Kyle T. said...

This article is a great break down of whats happened over the last 48hrs. You nailed it Andrew.

The reaction to the Muslim murderer and Biden's resulting comments are exactly why I hate the Biden administration. He was divisive, unhelpful and completely wrong in what he said.
He will more than likely warp the scenario and obfuscate any wrong doing on his part… I mean what else is new? That’s exactly what Biden always does. Watch for it over the next few days.


Anonymous said...

About Trump being a P.O.S., I would only add most politicians are, as well. Although I am at heart more of a libertarian, my own enmity towards most Democrats causes me to regularly vote Republican. Core belief is “the government that governs best, governs least.” My choice would have been DeSantis in 2024, but it seemed like Trump was leading in about every primary poll, and I will give the guy credit for standing up to one of the most unfair treatments a president ever received. I saw a clip of an analyst on CNN saying the same thing you did. The FBI may have not only handed him the nomination, but the presidency. At the heart of Trump derangement syndrome is this I think. Yes he is an insufferable egomaniac, rather than a leader. He is used to having complete control in his business empire, so rather than true leadership {selling the people on the big picture goals and give them wide latitude), he is used to say do this or your fired. But the other part of it is, he beat Hillary. Granted, she was a horrible candidate who expected to be coronated, and also a crook, but the point is… he beat her. So there is just a hint of fear which is why January 6 is such an obsession. They want to remove him from the game board

As far as the hypocrisy involved here…. Hillary, Sandy Burger come to mind. George Papadopopoulismspends 14 days in the hoosegow, and look what the D.C. judge did to poor Mike Flynn. I read somewhere (and cannot vouch for authenticity) that Obama has tons of classified documents in dispute.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, If it lasts until then, it would be good!

One of things that has always surprised me in the law is how concerned it gets with procedure and how little concern it has with substance. It will allow anything as long as you filed the right forms!

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Kyle. It's funny how that suddenly vanished once we knew he was Muslim, isn't it? No condemnation of religious inspired violence, no condemnation of how he's treating his daughter. Just silence.

Total pandering.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, Most are. I agree. But Trump is especially odious. He's a moronic megalomaniac who plays his supporters for profit without a thought to the consequences or harm he does. He is a conman in the extreme who has hijacked an important movement and turned it into a circus.

Anonymous said...

Andrew, I think that is one of the reasons they are incredibly fixated on him

AndrewPrice said...

So here's the next interesting phase. DOJ wants to unseal the warrant and list what they were seeking (and what evidence they had for it). Trump has until Friday to agree or oppose the motion.

1. If Trump doesn't agree, then he has something to hide. Will his supporters care? They should. Will they? Don't know.

2. If it is made public and it contains anything less than "nuclear codes," then DOJ is in trouble. If this is stuff that gets classified as secret routinely but is on the level of "budget request for light bulbs in White House", DOJ is screwed for overreacting. If it is nuclear codes, then Trump is screwed for keeping something that dangerous.

This will decide who wins for the public at large.

AndrewPrice said...

On the Trump obsession, the left is obsessed because (1) he's on the right, (2) he beat them despite their most shrill efforts, and (3) he beat them using their own tactics. Nothing upsets the left more than that.

His hardcore supporters are obsessed because they are whackjobs who see Trump as the apocalypse for the evil forces that want to control them.

Another group of GOP supporters (non-obsessed but generally supporting) believe that Trump is good because the left hates him and he upsets them. They see him as a great tool to disrupt an elitist culture that is monolithically progressive, though they don't necessarily like him personally.

DC is obsessed because he was never part of the private club that owns the government.

AndrewPrice said...

BTW, I meant "nuclear" in the figurative sense, but apparently they were actually looking for nuclear documents -- if leaks are to be believed. As well as documents about intercepted communications from other heads of state.

If true, then Trump should not have had those things and anyone concerned about national security should be pretty angry that he did.

Also note, there's no legitimate reason for him to keep those things... but plenty of illegitimate reasons.

So IF the leaks are true, then honestly, I will commend the FBI on this one. But we'll see. The FBI long ago lost the benefit of the doubt with me.

Anonymous said...

> But Trump is especially odious. He's a moronic megalomaniac who plays his supporters for profit without a thought to the consequences or harm he does. He is a conman in the extreme who has hijacked an important movement and turned it into a circus.

Right, I prefer McCain, Romney, McConnell, Murkoswki, Snowe, and Cheney.

AndrewPrice said...

Right, the old false dichotomy. Great logic there

AndrewPrice said...

By the way, "dichotomy" means... well, never mind. You've made my point about Trumpettes.

Kyle T. said...

It looks like Trump is asking for the warrant to be unsealed. I’ve noticed lots of retractions from leftoids who were certain he would not unseal it.

This whole FBI raid just continues to look worse for the Dems and especially Merrick Garland.
Also have you all read the BS about the “Nuclear codes” meme?! Its just an obvious crap shoot IMO.
Combine all this with the 1/6 hearings literally collapsing right before the raid happened… I think this raid may have just been a last ditch Hell Mary by the Dems to drag Trump across the coals.

What do you all think?


AndrewPrice said...

Kyle, I'm withholding judgment until I know more. Like I said, if they are looking for something he truly should not have -- something dangerous to leave lying around, then they are right and he has pointlessly made himself a national security threat. If it was anything less than that, they are wrong and they have made themselves police state thugs. Neither result is good for the country, but such is our world.

What I'm hearing now, ominously, is not a denial, by the way, but a defense - they are claiming Trump "declassified" those documents before he took them.

Again, I will wait to see where this goes before judging.

Kyle T. said...

Good point Andrew, I could be totally miss-reading all of this. We will see how it all unfolds over the next few weeks.


AndrewPrice said...

Kyle, I just don't know yet. I will say though that some of the hair splitting language I'm hearing in the leaks makes me lean against the FBI at the moment. We will see.

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