Monday, October 21, 2013

Don't Fall For Scaremongering

Have you ever noticed that Americans do really terribly on international tests and surveys? The latest example involves a survey that purports to show that American adults rank 21 of 23 in math and 15 of 23 in literacy among the developed world. Panic!!! Hold on. This number is misleading, as are many such numbers. Let’s discuss.

Fear sells. If a magazine put “Everything is fine!” on its cover, then no one would buy. So instead, they push fake crises. Politicians do this too, as do businesses who want your money. This is how numbers like the 21/23 and 15/23 come about. They are meant to scare you. They are meant to shock you: “You mean we aren’t the best in the world?! Something has gone wrong! Ahhhhhh! We must ____!” And when you are sufficiently panicked, they will happily fill in that blank for you. Don’t fall for this. Always look behind the numbers. Observe.

The rankings above are the result of a random survey of 5,000 people. They took a quick test which was ranked between 0-500 points. The results were then averaged and fed to the news as the latest example of how bad things are in America. But these numbers don’t actually say that. How can I be sure? Well, each score is within +/- 4% of the median. Why does this matter? In a normal survey, that would put them well within the margin of error. Here they claim that is not true because the survey size was large – at 5,000 people. Thus, the margin of error is around 1-2%. But that’s misleading. That margin of error only applies to the median because that’s the only number created by all 5,000 people. When you look at each country’s score, what you find is that only around 220 people were tested in each country. That means that margin of error for any particular country score is closer to +/- 8%. That means that every country is within half the margin of error. That means that mathematically speaking, there is NO difference between these countries that we can say with any degree of certainty.

But that’s not scary, so they cite this number as if it really has meaning.

It’s the same thing with so many other numbers. When they talk about test scores of high school kids, for example, those numbers are so close that using those numbers to rank countries is like ranking toothpicks by height when the issue is comparing toothpicks to yardsticks to trees. Other numbers meant to scare us are similarly warped. People point to meaningless differences, ignore key facts, and make wrong comparisons.

For example, did you know that Mohammed is the number two name for children born in Britain? Wow, that means they must be awash in Muslim kids, right? Panic!! When someone says that Mohamed is number two, people wrongly assume (1) that there must be millions of these Mohameds being born otherwise they wouldn’t be near the top of the list, and (2) if it’s the number two name, then there must be almost as many Muslims being born as Christian British. And that is what the scaremongers want you to believe. But is this right? Hardly.

First, being number two isn’t that big of a deal. Do you know how many Mohamed were born last year? 7,549. That’s it. And that’s out of 706,248 child born. Essentially, 1% of children born in Britain were named Mohamed. Not so scary anymore, is it? And what about this idea that being second means there must be an equal number of Muslims as Christians being born? People forget that almost all Muslims name their sons Mohamed, whereas whites don’t do that, i.e. we don’t all name out sons Jesus. Thus, Mohamed’s high ranking is deceptive because Muslims are more likely to name their children Mohamed whereas people wrongly assume a normal distribution similar to Christian behavior. In other words, the high number of Mohameds does not imply an equally high number of Omars and Saddams. So how many Muslims do think there are in the UK? All of 2.7 million... 4.8% of the population. Not so threatening anymore, is it, certainly not compared to hearing that Mohammed is now the number two name!!

All right, so what about this 47% of the public who pay no taxes? (The number actually fell to 43% in 2013, but that’s neither here nor there.) I bought this one at the time, but I shouldn’t have. Let’s take a closer look at the figure than we have in the past. Consider this: 27.3% of the population is under 20 and 12.8% of the population is over 65. Combined, these two groups account for 41% of the population and most members of these two groups likely pay no taxes. If you subtract them from the 47% figure, then you get 6%. In other words, only 6% of working age Americans pay no taxes. That’s a very different world than the one painted by the assertion of the 47% figure.

Folks, America ain’t so bad, and things are nowhere near as dire as people want you to believe with these headline grabbing, but ultimately false, numbers. When we look at things to worry about and talk about plans to fix them, let’s be sure we know what the real extent of the problem is.

69 comments:

Kit said...

So, wait, the 47% figure counts minors???

Tennessee Jed said...

great stuff, although I'm not quite as certain the % of those over 65 paying no taxes would be quite so high as under 20. It is true that most people are retired, and I suspect the number (%) who pays no taxes is high enough it doesn't really change the point you are making.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, The 47% was 47% of all Americans. So yes.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, It's not 100%, I'm sure of that, but the point stands. Even if half paid taxes (and I know they don't), you would still only be talking about 12%. So either way, we need to take this number with a huge grain of salt and not believe that American society has collapsed.

I should have realized this before the election, but I didn't.

AndrewPrice said...

BTW, This "Americans are almost dead last out of 23" stuff is making the rounds, just like it's designed to be, and nobody's questioning any of it.

Kit said...

"Kit, The 47% was 47% of all Americans. So yes."
Excuse me, I have to go bang my head against the wall.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, Tell me about it. I never thought to ask about that before either. But now that I'm reconsidering all the things I simply accepted before, I'm running into things like this that point that some of our biggest worries are way overblown.

The Mohammed thing was interesting too.

Kit said...

The EUROPE IS TURNING MUSLIM* scaremongerers always point out the high immigration rates and and birth rates and promptly assume that those numbers will remain constant in perpetuity.

I realized how silly this is when I looked back and realized that you rises and declines in immigration numbers in history. Look at the US: Irish immigration, Russian immigration, Italian immigration, etc.

In the UK the largest number of foreign borns are the Indians (729,000), Polish (457,000), Pakistanis (457,000), Irish (457,000), and Germans (297,000).
LINK

*"America is going Mexican" can be included in this too.

Kit said...

"The Mohammed thing was interesting too."
It is interesting.

Kit said...

An Error: The actual number of Polish foreign-borns in the UK are 643,000.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, Exactly right. First, they ignore the fact that you are talking about small numbers. There was an article the other day about the Muslim birth rate being twice that of white-British. And this was supposed to panic everyone. Only, the numbers were so small that it didn't make a dent. Secondly, they ignore inevitable changes.

The Mexicans are the same thing. Once they become established, their birthrates here fall to the identical level as whites. It's only the ones who are fresh off the boat who have a lot of kids. Without those people coming here, Hispanics aren't growing at all as a population. Yet, the scaremongers take immigration and turn that into birth rate and then use that to project that we will become an Hispanic nation soon. Never going to happen.

Rustbelt said...

Kit said, "Excuse me, I have to go bang my head against the wall."

Kit, stop and leave that wall alone. It's my turn. And I've got a thick skull. This could take a while.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, Just as interestingly, the US actually has a higher percentage of Muslims than the UK, yet the UK is seen as being on the verge of being overrun and we are not. Why? Different targets for the fear mongers. The Muslims are all they have to fear in the UK, we have the Mexican hoards.

AndrewPrice said...

Rustbelt, Ultimate though, this is really good news. It means that the public is not at all what they've been presented as being. They are not all on welfare, they are not dependent on benefits, and most of them work.

Kit said...

Rustbelt,
Here, have fun.

Rustbelt said...

$%^&&%&(&(&^&$#W$@#^.... Who? Huh? Wha..?

AndrewPrice said...

LOL! Rustbelt, This stuff is all good news really. Most of the stats you see to tell us how bad things have gotten are actually fake.

Kit said...

"The Muslims are all they have to fear in the UK"
And the Polish. Seriously!

Rustbelt said...

In all seriousness, Andrew that is really refreshing news. And, boy, do we need some. Still, it begs the question: what are they going to try to scare us with next?

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, I know. There's a ton of Polish and Romanian anxiety. Interestingly, the consider both "non-white."

AndrewPrice said...

Rustbelt, I think the real question is what aren't they going to try to scare us with next?

This seems to have become the only way people communicate these days... scare you first and then tell you what they want from you.

Kit said...

Well, Andrew, think about how "white" British skin is. By that standard just about everybody is non-white.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, LOL! In all seriousness, I ran into this for the first time last year when they were screaming about "whites becoming a minority." It turns out that they were only counting British. And they listed Poles and Romanians and Jews as non-whites. It struck me as pretty strange since in the US, all three are considered white.

Kit said...

Well, we consider hispanics to be non-white.

AndrewPrice said...

True. It just struck me as interesting because the distinction between Europeans nationalities has all but vanished in the US population as all are now seen as "white," but in Europe that is still not true.

Kit said...

It is interesting.

And, from what I know, the designation of Hispanics as non-white is fairly recent as Lucy and Ricky were not considered a bi-racial couple.

AndrewPrice said...

I understand that it's also going away, at least as far as the Census is concerned.

BevfromNYC said...

Andrew! Are you saying that 4 out of 5 dentists did NOT recommend Sensodyne for their patients sensitive teeth?? ;-)

Seriously, I am always skeptical of "statistics" because they are so easily manipulated to verify whatever the statistic user needs. Here is the perfect example from HuffPo today - LINK. The comments should make you feel better though.

tryanmax said...

NEWSFLASH: 82% of Frightening Statistics are Fake!*
Experts** say a near-equal number of positive statistics may be as well

(*may also be fake, **probably not tryanmax.)

tryanmax said...

What's funny about the 47% statistic is that even the people who tried to refute it still completely bought it. I think most people understood that what was meant was federal income taxes. All the objectors ever mustered was to point out that everybody has to pay social security taxes, as well as state and local taxes, sales taxes, and the like.

Incidentally, I'm one of the 6-12% who pays no federal income tax. My child tax credits and child-care deductions more than cancel out what I'd otherwise pay. I'm such a leech on society.

BevfromNYC said...

And my parents who are both receiving SS benefits having worked all their lives and paid into the system STILL have to pay SS taxes because my father still works at 85yrs old. Shouldn't there be a point where you if you are receiving SS you shouldn't have to pay into the system anymore?

Oh, wait this isn't about raggin' on the tax system, this about manipulated statistics TO rag on the tax system...my bad.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Nope, that's true with Sensodyne. That's the one statistic that is veritably true in the universe. :)

Yeah, we all need to be more skeptical of any of these numbers we hear. It seems that pretty much all the scary ones are false.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, You're probably right that the good statistics are fake too.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Everyone did buy it -- both pro and con. It sounded official, but it's really nonsense because it applied to all Americans. We should have realized right away that this was bunk. What they should have looked at is working age adults who don't work and don't have a spouse who works.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I am a firm believer that teens and retirees should be exempt from W-2 type taxes because we want to encourage those people to keep working.

As an aside, feel free to rag on the tax system. In this case though, the 47% number wasn't really ragging on the system, it was used to rag on the public and how half of them are supposedly leeches... when the reality is closer to 10%.

tryanmax said...

Bev, this is my response to her opening paragraph:

October is Domestic Violence Awareness Month, but most people are in fact unaware. One reason is that Republicans in congress frittered away most of the month by closing the government and creating a manufactured crisis over the debt ceiling.

Oh, the Republicans overshadowed Domestic Violence Awareness Month, did they?

It couldn't possibly have been Breast Cancer Awareness Month, LGBT History Month, Hispanic Heritage Month, Filipino History Month, Celiac Sprue Awareness Month, Dental Hygiene Month, Down Syndrome Awareness Month, Physical Therapy Month, Spina Bifida Month, SIDS Awareness Month, Blindness Awareness Month, Mental Illness Awareness Month, National Pizza Month, National Popcorn Month, National Pork Month, NFL, NBA, MLB World Series, or Halloween.

Nope, it was just the Republicans.

Kit said...

Tyranmax,

Funny point.

AndrewPrice said...

Yeah, that's stupid to blame it on the shutdown. But even more to the point... blame what? First of all, is there anyone who isn't aware of domestic violence? Secondly, where is there proof that people somehow became less aware in October?

BevfromNYC said...

Statistically speaking, 4 out of 5 people were too weak from hunger because of the shutdown that caused all the food to disappear off the shelves (see Louisiana) SO they could not think of anything but their hunger. So they could not demand that Congress focus on passing some worthless "Dill Pickle day" style mandate to makes us all aware of the criminality of domestic violence. See, we all assumed that it already WAS illegal in most jurisdictions and...oh, nevermind, It's Bush''s fault.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, LOL! Yep, it's always Bush's fault. He was that powerful.

Kit said...

I wonder if the lack of interest in domestic violence could be because of all the inflated and bogus statistics the feminist movement put forward in the 1990s.

Bush, the Great and Powerful said...

Do you presume to criticize the Great Bush? You ungrateful creatures!

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, Fake my butt! It is sooo true that 11 out of 9 women will be victims of domestic violence and 412 of 417 will be raped at some point in their lives by their own relatives.... or strangers in clown suits. How dare you disagree you neanderthal hater!

Oh, and only 1 in 10 will report it because there somethingsomething damn Republicans!

AndrewPrice said...

Yes, Mr. Bush. As Bev said the other day, we are ungrateful ingrates! :D

Koshcat said...

Great article. I live in a world of statistics and they get thrown around indiscriminately. Bev is absolutely right in that you can make them support almost anything you like. Same goes with quotes and sadly fake quotes.

AndrewPrice said...

Koshcat, Thanks. Statistics are a great tool when used properly. But when shortcuts are taken and/or the results start to get spun, then they become a mess because too few people understand their limitations.

Yeah, quotes have the same problem. It's amazing how people will warp or invent quotes to prove a point.

Kit said...

What is amazing is how they throw out a surface statistic, like 40% of high school students have drank alcohol in the last 30 days -not a good thing. But they rarely mention other statistics regarding volume of consumption and instead connecting 40% number with stories of drunk driving, teen pregnancy, teen sex, etc.
Thus creating an image of a seedy underworld at your kids high school where the worship of Bacchus reigns supreme or something like that.

tryanmax said...

Andrew, Kit, those numbers are right in line with the ones I saw about 17 out of 12 men will be abusers/rapists/clowns at some point. Also, that women are far more likely to be killed by a gun when one is aimed and fired at them. //shakes head// Stunning. Just stunning.

tryanmax said...

Also, in light of National Pizza Month, which I mentioned earlier: LINK

AndrewPrice said...

Well, now I'm hungry.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax and Kit, those statistics were always phony. They began with the assumption that no matter number they found, they would claim that most (up to 90%) wasn't reported. So it was always going to be phony.

Kit said...

"They began with the assumption that no matter number they found, they would claim that most (up to 90%) wasn't reported. So it was always going to be phony."

INTELLECTUAL HONESTY!

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, That's what people without actual evidence always do: "People are afraid to report/support us." Pay attention and you'll see it all the time.

Kit said...

Well, Andrew, how do you make an argument without any evidence?!

BevfromNYC said...

Tryanmax! Are you kidding me? It's National Pizza Month and no one told me?? October is almost over and that makes me so sad now...;-(

Kit said...

The reason is because they (and technically the law) consider it rape if the woman is drunk -even if the man is drunk as well. Because women cannot give consent while drunk but they feel that a man can give consent.

However, most women do not consider it rape if she drank the alcohol voluntarily.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, It's shocking what we've missed because we've been focused on... uh, something else. ;-P

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, You just do it like most people do -- you assert something to be true and you talk about everyone knowing it and having once seen a study that you can't currently find. Then you scream about how everyone who denies your BS is clearly on the other side... a real enemy of humanity... and then you invent reasons why you can't produce proof.

For an example, look at pretty much anything any activist has ever said.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, You've been hanging out with the wrong people.

Kit said...

What do you mean "I've been hanging our with the wrong people"?

I should've elaborated a bit more. Most women apparently do not consider it rape if she voluntarily drank alcohol as they do not report it as such.

AndrewPrice said...

I'm playing with you Kit, about your rape comment.

In all honesty, you're looking to explain a statistic that someone made up because it sounded large enough to create a crisis. That's it. There's no logic to the number.

Kit said...

Ok. You are playing with me. :)

Kit said...

And the really bad thing: By exaggerating the statistics and making up the numbers, they have created a situation where its not taken seriously by the public.

AndrewPrice said...

Activists are blind to how they are perceived. They are obsessed and they think that if the powers that be would only stop hiding their cause from people, then people would jump on board. That's how obsession works.

Anonymous said...

Talk about enlightening... I remember enough from my old statistics courses to know how they can be manipulated, though shamefully I don't put the knowledge to use that often. This sheds a lot of light on things, and calls to mind some of the earlier discussions we had about how much of modern political discourse is based on falsehoods, Andrew.

As far as activist types go, they drove me crazy to no end back when I was at UGA. Even aside from their wild claims, which I was usually skeptical of anyway, they always came off as so shrill and obnoxious I couldn't help but wonder if they were really convincing anybody, which is another common subject here with how the fringe behaves. Everything just seems like one long chain of follies sometimes, doesn't it?

And as far as the pizzas go, damn do those look good... The Texas entry almost had me drooling on my laptop, Pennsylvania and Colorado's pizzas sounded nice, and the Missouri one looks tasty too! As far as my own state's pizza goes there actually is a Mellow Mushroom in town so I might have to try Georgia's Holy Shiitake some time soon...

- Daniel

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, Thanks. It is enlightening, especially as we all should already know these things, yet we've failed to question them before. I'm amazed I didn't catch onto these things sooner.

I still think that's very true that much of our modern political discourse is based on falsehoods. It seems to be more every day too. That's why we can't seem to solve any of the problems we think we face, because (1) maybe the problems aren't real and (2) the solutions being shouted by each side are generally nonsense.

On activists, odds are that they turned more people off than they won recruits. There is a study I will talk about soon which found that people actually were less likely to do what activists wanted than they were if other people asked.

A lot of those pizzas looked fantastic!

tryanmax said...

By exaggerating the statistics and making up the numbers, they have created a situation where its not taken seriously by the public.

That's true, but at the same time, it creates a situation where the conversation can never leave square one. Instead of actually talking about substantive aspects of the problem and ways to address them that might actually be effective, everyone spends their time arguing over who has the better numbers and related semantic quibbles.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, That's true. It gives the other side an easy target to attack you without talking about the substance and that wipes out any momentum you may hope to gain. Plus, it wipes out your credibility because realize that you are lying.

AndrewPrice said...

BTW, speaking of disgracing yourself with overstatements and lies, my article tonight (in about two minutes) is about environmentalists.

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