So the big election is Tuesday. This one could be a mess. I'm still not at all sure how it will turn out except that the GOP will keep the Senate. The House... I have no idea. I've told you why I think the GOP could keep the House. Gerrymandering. Polls being national. Great economy. Democratic idiocy. The army of caravans. No Democrats looking to get ahead of the victory. Trump's high popularity.
But something bothered me this weekend. Mike Pence declared that we would keep the House. That felt like a death blow to me. That felt like a last ditch effort to encourage people to get out to vote in a desperate cause. Arg. Now I'm not so sure... not that I was sure before either, but it seems like the GOP is resigned to losing. That's a bad sign.
So here are some thoughts.
Whether they lose or not, the GOP made several mistakes. (1) Not advertising their achievements all along. I doubt many can identify what they've done other than fight with Trump. (2) They keep running loonys that hurt the image -- the Nazi in Illinois, for example. The Democrats do this too and it hurts them too, but the GOP ones get the news coverage because the media is biased. (3) Not learning to denounce the racists who try to "help" them in races like Florida. (4) Not having an agenda to sell.
While letting the Democrats have the House won't be pleasant, but what is these days -- I can barely turn on the internet with my rage coming on -- it might actually be good for 2020. The Democrats will go apeshit because that it what they are and they will pass some insane demonstration bills... "shut down ICE!" They will hold angry hearings 24/7. They will shutdown the government. They might even try to impeach Trump. All of that should bring about a pretty strong red wave in 2020, when we need it even more. I suggest Valium for the next two years. Then we'll see.
But something bothered me this weekend. Mike Pence declared that we would keep the House. That felt like a death blow to me. That felt like a last ditch effort to encourage people to get out to vote in a desperate cause. Arg. Now I'm not so sure... not that I was sure before either, but it seems like the GOP is resigned to losing. That's a bad sign.
So here are some thoughts.
Whether they lose or not, the GOP made several mistakes. (1) Not advertising their achievements all along. I doubt many can identify what they've done other than fight with Trump. (2) They keep running loonys that hurt the image -- the Nazi in Illinois, for example. The Democrats do this too and it hurts them too, but the GOP ones get the news coverage because the media is biased. (3) Not learning to denounce the racists who try to "help" them in races like Florida. (4) Not having an agenda to sell.
While letting the Democrats have the House won't be pleasant, but what is these days -- I can barely turn on the internet with my rage coming on -- it might actually be good for 2020. The Democrats will go apeshit because that it what they are and they will pass some insane demonstration bills... "shut down ICE!" They will hold angry hearings 24/7. They will shutdown the government. They might even try to impeach Trump. All of that should bring about a pretty strong red wave in 2020, when we need it even more. I suggest Valium for the next two years. Then we'll see.
13 comments:
You get a Valium, and you get a Valium...Valium for everyone! It may be the only way to survive the future of politics.
Stacy, It really is. The left is so intent on throwing their tantrum and making sure that everyone participates in it that they are making it impossible to do almost anything without it becoming awash in hateful politics. It's like being surrounded by crazy people all the time.
Andrew, we are surrounded by crazy people, all the time....I'm hopeful the GOP holds onto the House, but you never know. If we do and hold the Senate, the Dims will implode. Shoot, Alec Baldwin might get so mad he beats up someone else...and Babs might just move to Canadia (Upper North Dakota) and take her hubby with her and all those wenches from The View...and Katy Perry,,,most of them.
Critch, Sadly, those promises aren't real. I wish they were. As for Baldwin, I can't believe he keeps getting away with the things he does.
I honestly have no idea how the House will turn out at this point. You can't trust the polls, neither party is acting like they're going to win... the economy etc. says Trump... history says democrats... etc. etc. I just can't decipher what's really going on. There is a consistency though that says the Democrats will win a lot of seats, but will it be enough?
The Republicans will hold the Senate though.
The other thing that bothers/worries me is that a lot of far-left progressive Democrats are pretending to be moderates. It's a lie and they know it. But they have no shame and I'm not sure the public will know the difference.
Its a low stakes midterms, more of a referendum on Trump (who isn't going anywhere) than anything. Trump is much bigger on executive decrees (like Obama and to a lesser degree every modern president he is steadily expanding executive power) than working with the legislature so its not like the Dems taking the House would turn off a stream of conservative legislation (or conversely Republicans continuing to hold it would keep the stream going).
The only really consequential point is Republican control of the Senate because it ratifies judicial nominations. And the consensus is that the Republicans will continue to hold a majority there.
No matter what happens things will continue broadly as they have the past several years. The two parties will only come together to pass massive budgets, otherwise it will all be symbolic pandering, conspiracies, claims of victimization and blame-shifting.
2020 might be a stronger year for Republicans because as I have said before, modern elections are like musical chairs in reverse and there will be a bunch of high profile Democrats bringing the crazy and the corruption (nods towards Gillum).
Andrew, if it makes you feel any better, the Illinois Nazi has zero steam. This is the first I've heard about it. On the racist robo-calls in Florida, I read about the disavowals before I learned about the calls, and there are charges of deliberate media suppression, so that may not be the misstep it seems.
If nothing else, both of those instances point to the inability of the media to control a story the way they used to. Ten years ago, the Nazi would be the subject of every House race and the robo-call story would've spread faster than the rebuttal.
The lack of a GOP agenda would normally be a cause for concern if it weren't for the fact that the Dems don't have an agenda either. Bottom line, we won't really know until tomorrow.
Anthony, I think what is at stake in this election, unfortunately, is sanity. If the left gets swept, they might... might wake up to the fact that their childish tantrum has been a mistake. They might grow up. If they win, sadly, they will likely get even more obnoxious.
And I don't mean democratic politicians, I mean the left at large -- news media, actors, the Antifa, athletes, random assholes in restaurants, etc. These are the people who are trying desperately to make life unbearable right now if you aren't part of their collective and if they win even the House, which they probably will, I expect they will doubledown on their hateful tantrum.
tryanmax, I suspect that the race stuff has cost us Florida.
Also, while none of these things are fatal -- like the lack of an agenda -- they leave us in this sport where everything is a coin toss. If the GOP offered a decent agenda, they would be ahead by 5% across the board and there would be no stress, no potential loss. It might even break apart much of the identity politics crap which is causing the problems in America today.
BTW, I agree that the media no longer has the ability to control the debate as they did, but it still doesn't help that the GOP gets associated with these nut jobs.
In two local races, both Dims are trying to make it seem like they are moderates. Both are hardcore liberals. One is a lesbian, who has taught school off and on for awhile....the other is a loser lawyer with all the appeal of, well, a loser lawyer. he asked for my vote because we're both Catholic...I told him NO. You will vote right down the line with the StL Democrats...
The recent Marist/NBC poll shows the Florida Democrats with a 4% lead. Looking deeper though, I see this. On their list of likely voters:
Democrats 34%
Republicans 34%
Other 32%
And...
Liberal 26%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 39%
Granted, liberals wrongly see themselves as moderates, but this makes me wonder if the race isn't more tied than it appears. If 1/3 of the moderates vote to the right, that means the GOP wins 50.3% to 49.7%.
Curious. Not sure if that means anything, but it's going to be a long night.
Critch, You have an identity. Under the rules of identity politics, that means you are consumed by that identity and will drink the group Kool-Aid. How dare you think independently!
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