Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Post-Elective Thoughts

Here are my thoughts on last night's little soiree.

● If I were a Democrat, I would be really, really, really upset about last night. They have never had a better chance to win the House and Senate than last night:
(1) History was on their side,
(2) Trump is hated,
(3) Women were energized by rapey Supreme Court nominees,
(4) Black people were energized by imagined racism,
(5) Hispanics were "more energized than ever",
(6) young people were energized by gun violence in Florida,
(7) the MSM blamed the GOP for sparking terrorism,
(8) the MSM linked the GOP to white supremacists, etc.
You couldn't ask for better conditions for the left. And yet, there was no blue wave. They lost seats in the Senate. They barely took the House with 26 seats after talking about a hundred. They won some governorships but not in purple states like new Georgia, Ohio, New Hampshire, and not in blue states like Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont, Connecticut. Pathetic. This must sting... if they're capable of being honest.

Add this to the failure of 2016 and they have to wonder if they don't have a bigger problem. Maybe the public just doesn't like them? Maybe they miscalculated the demographics? Maybe their collection of losers just aren't reliable voters? Shouldn't have satisfied the gays... shouldn't have dumped the white union guys.

● I wonder if this result won't make the Democrats even crazier in the House? It wouldn't surprise me if they conclude that they can't win with the current demographics and they take up an even more hostile posture, especially being weighed down with a fresh generation of socialists, in the hopes of upsetting the game and creating new conditions.

● The media painted this as a referendum on Trump. IF that's the case, then he passed with flying colors. Why? There was no blue wave. A wave would have been apparent in the Senate races, which are statewide. The GOP did really well in those. Where the GOP lost was Congressmen who failed to keep their districts happy, ie. local issues.

Ironically, I already see articles that read: "Democrats capture House in rebuke to Trump." Does that make any sense to you logically? Why didn't they win the Senate then? Why was it only races with scandals or purple districts where this happened? These are the lies liberals tell themselves to soothe the hurt.

As an aside, playing Devil's Advocate, you could argue that the GOP could have survived these problems and kept the House if Trump had been more popular, particularly with suburban women. There might be something to that. It would have helped if (1) Trump had appointed more women and (2) he sent his female appointees out to campaign earlier. But at the same time...

● The GOP needs to connect to city dwellers, i.e. female suburban women. Run women. Run teachers. Develop an agenda that protects families from economic and social harm and helps middle class people help their kids succeed. Lindsey Graham said this too. Man, my respect for him keeps skyrocketing suddenly. Weird.

● Every race in which celebrities turned out to help the Democrat went to the Republican. The public hates celebrities. Sorry Lebron... Oprah... Taylor and all the rest of you dipsticks. Thanks for helping!

● I'm not seeing the year of the woman... again. Hard to tell though. All those articles proclaiming this the Year of the Woman kind of vanished suddenly. That said, there are now 85 women in the House. This beats the current tally of 84. Oddly, NBC had predicted that between 35 and 40 new women would be seated in the House on the strength of the #metoo movement, but that seems a tad optimistic now. Still, +1 is an improvement, right? Of course, Claire McCaskill lost in the Senate as did Heidi Heitcamp (who voted against Kavanaugh), so maybe we just broke even. Next time!

● The GOP is probably stronger in the Senate than before with the retirement of Jeff Flake.

● The left was trying a "Medicare for all" platform. It failed. Identity politics did not extend to being a tranny in Vermont, where the GOP candidate won the governorship. "Vote black to show you're not racist" failed in Georgia and Florida.

● Ted Cruz looked super beatable. Running a far-left progressive was apparently a mistake.

● This will add a lot of fuel to the Democratic civil war. The progressives who survived the primaries tended to win, all be it because they were in safe districts. At the same time, the progressives pretending to be moderates came very close to winning, but ultimately lost. That will give each side unshakeable confidence that they are right. That's a recipe for a split. Look for the post mortem on Beto O'Rourke to become a flashpoint in this debate/war.

● Here's your Democratic lineup for 2020: Media Darling Beto O'Rourke... Californian Kamala Harris... Californian Gavin Newsome... Grandpa Joe Biden... Fake Injun Elizabeth Warren... too-moderate Coloradan John Hickenlooper... sleazeball Michael Avantti... 16 oz. Michael Bloomberg... Ron Paul Bernie Sanders... with possible guest appearances by Hillary and Chelsea Clinton and the Draft Oprah choir.



AndrewPrice said...

Oh, the headlines are coming. "Republicans declare war on Nancy Pelosi, She Wins!"

"Trump Routed"


LOL! Yep. You Democrats did great. Come collect your participation trophy.

Oh, and apparently the Kansas and Michigan governor's races were "key races." Interesting. Key to what?

ArgentGale said...

The kitten woke me up so I decided to go ahead and check on the races. Yep, Georgia remains solidly red for now with Kemp winning by a decent margin and a strong GOP sweep in the other statewide offices. Democrat legislative victories were pretty much confined to the usual spots in Atlanta and nothing changed for us in terms of House races. That said, I absolutely agree that the GA GOP needs a better strategy going forward because of the demographics change Atlanta is providing but like I said don't get your hopes up. With typical establishment types on one side and the Religious Right on the other I'm not expecting a Cory Gardner to show up any time soon. They can't count on the Democrats to keep running bad candidates like fringer Abrams the whole time either.

Speaking of which, a local restaurant (one of the town's oldest favorites) actually had her there for a rally and pissed people off so bad that their branch across town immediately posted that they don't get involved in political matters on Facebook afterward! Considering that my home county went 70% for all Republican candidates it wasn't a brilliant move on their part. Regardless, it's nice to have some breathing room down here!

On the race in general, everything else sounds right. Just barely getting past the bare minimum to take the House isn't anything to brag about and from what I've seen of some other conservatives I follow none of them seem too concerned by it. They also agree with you in that they're going to bring out the crazy in short order. In any case most of the anxiety-inducing thoughts about yesterday didn't pan out so it's time to breathe easy for a while!

Anthony said...

*Shrugs* Post-Kavanaugh its what I expected and what most polls predicted.

The next two years will be just like the past two years for both sides. Trump has always been much bigger on executive orders than legislation and his big achievement other than the tax bill is judiciary picks. Democrats will focus on investigations and symbolic votes. Kavanaugh shows they need to be careful about not just their battles but how they fight them.

As I've noted before Trump has avoided goring any sacred liberal cows (even Obamacare) but that might change, possibly via the courts.

Its a dead certainty 2020 will be even crazier than 2018 politically (I predict Trump will do what incumbents normally do and win reelection, not yet sure how the legislature will shake out).

Ben L. Kemer said...

So the Democrats won the house, but not by the margins they expected, and the Republicans won the Senate, but not by the margins that they expected. Quite a twist.

Critch said...

We got rid of Claire....

BevfromNYC said...

There could've been a "Blue Wave", but Dems just cannot get it as a #1 most important strategy to not insult or deman potential voters.

BevfromNYC said...

Critch - Getting rid of McCaskill, was a big surprise. And it wasn't by a narrow margin either.

Btw, above I meant "demean", not "deman"...but then again, that is even an better word for the problem. I think I'll keep it.

LL said...

Spartacus is running for president as well. There are something like 35 people who are going to gore each other on the donkey side, before they face President Trump.

AndrewPrice said...

Critch, That makes me happy. :)

Bev, Demeaning the stupid, deplorable public is what Democrats do. You can't take that away from them. That would be... uh... racist.

AndrewPrice said...

I will be back later folks... maybe. I'm off to get a large number of cavities filled. Boo boo!

Anonymous said...

Great points, Andrew!

Check out this ridiculous headline and article from the Daily Beast:

Democrats Take Control of House as ‘Blue Wave’ Wipes Out Republicans

Democrats won control the House of Representatives on Tuesday, riding a wave of energy generated in opposition to President Trump from his first days in office...

Seriously, how wrong is that?

tryanmax said...

● It looks like Democrats will put Nancy Pelosi back in as speaker. That the first woman speaker will also be the second woman speaker illustrates just how bereft the Democrat Party is of talent. Of course, the same could be said about appointing Nancy Pelosi as speaker in the first place.

● Democrats are claiming they "won" on health coverage for preexisting conditions. There may be some truth to this, as Democrats have been claiming since 2016 that Trump is lying when he says he intends to cover people with preexisting conditions. Watch for them to fecklessly pave a pathway to another "promises made, promises kept" moment.

● The left continues to lose faith in polls, blaming their faulty predictions of a Blue Wave on declining revenues at newspapers and the difficulty in surveying legitimate voters in a largely mobile world. This is a welcome development as it means that left-leaning newsrooms will be less inclined to use polls to drive the news as audiences become more distrustful of them. (NOTE: This applies to mainstream outlets. Outlets like Fox and MSNBC will always run polls that bolster their narratives.)

● A quick look around the internet seems to indicate that the #Resistance fully expects impeachment proceedings to begin come January.

● If anybody knows when and where the Republican riots are scheduled for, and what hat to wear, I didn't get the memo on that.

● For all you 80s nostalgists, here's a look at what's in store for the next two years. LINK

BevfromNYC said...

Tryanmax - I have heard rumors that the Republican riots are scheduled to begin after tax season, but before the summer is over is over. A memo should go out (courtesy of the Koch Brothers) sometime in the Spring.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, OMG. This ==> "If anybody knows when and where the Republican riots are scheduled for, and what hat to wear, I didn't get the memo on that." Made me spit out my drink! LOL!

Could you imagine how hilarious it would be to hold a rally with penis hats, giving speeches about how Pelosi is #notmyspeaker?!

BevfromNYC said...

Hey, I just read that Session just resigned.

tryanmax said...

Now this is interesting:

While results aren't in, it looks as though Republicans stand to lose 26 seats in the midterm. This would be equal to the number of seats Republicans lost midway through Reagan's first term. It's also less than the average midterm swing since 1910, which is a 31 seat loss AND less than the average Republican midterm swing, a 29 seat loss. For comparison, the Democrats' midterm losses in Obama's first term were -63 seats and under Clinton were -54.

Critch said...

We got rid of Claire....I know I said that once, but I like the sound of it. BTW, last night she told a crowd that now she can say whatever she wants to...I guess that's one spin on getting your butt whupped.

ArgentGale said...

My phone was messed up all day so I couldn't amend my earlier post with some unhappy corrections. We did lose one House district to the Dems and despite losing 50.33%-48.72% Abrams isn't conceding and is looking at her legal options (i.e. attempting a Franken). If she cheats her way to victory then given the likely (in)competence of the GA GOP going forward it's probably time to start drinking until Democrat policies make sense.

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, I think it's funny that Biden has been whining that Trump would refuse to accept the election results and now the people doing that are Democrats, like Georgia.

AndrewPrice said...

Critch, It is a good feeling. Nicely done!

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, That is interesting. That suggests that their "Blue Wave" couldn't even achieve what history gives on average. Ha ha. That's even more damning actually.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, The polls have struck me as wrong for quite some time now. I'm not sure what the issue is exactly, but they just seem to be spewing impossible results somehow -- contradictory, too one-sided. Some on the right think that people have been cowed into giving the answer the media wants to hear rather than what they will really do. That's possible. I suspect there is a more fundamental problem with the polling methodology though.

Rustbelt said...

Meanwhile, from the Commonwealth that Ben Franklin would disown if he were still here in this mortal coil...

We still have Tom "Like My Mentor Obama, I Ignore All Laws I Don't Care For" Wolf as Governor.

We still have Bob as Senator. (See yesterday's thread for my take on him. I'm not retyping it. It was a true nerd moment.)

In good news...I still have a GOP rep despite the State Supreme Court's gerrymandering earlier this year.

Of course, that good news ends with the wholly expected newsflash that Mike Doyle is still king of the PGH metro area, as he ran unopposed. Then again, what Repub would waste money on that land of Big Labor zombies?

And just to show how off the charts PA has gone, John Fetterman, a guy who looks like Jesse Ventura's brother from another mother, is now lieutenant governor. Hey, this is the state that once had a Lt. Gov.- Katherine Baker Knoll- who looked like a certain fmr. NY senator's long-lost sister.)
The now former mayor of the skithole that is Braddock, PA and Harvard grad who hasn't seen a super left-wing cause he didn't embrace (like calling fracking companies evil unless, of course, they start paying higher taxes which would make them perfectly environmentally friendly!), and forces his family to live in a converted car dealership.
You know, back in my news days, we had a field day with this guy. He's led protests against "the man" i.e. the only large and hiring businesses/companies left in Pittsburgh. According to him, it seems they forget about the 'little guy.' Yeah, go ahead and tell them they're not wanted here and order them to move their soulless corporate selves out. Of course, there's no chance they'd also take those jobs with them, too, is there? He was even caught damaging a bar whose proprietor was having issues with the cops. I don't remember what the circumstances were, but when the mayor is behaving like Jimmy "the Gent" Burke, uh...
My favorite thing to say at prompter during his soundbites was, (as Randy Savage), "Bonesaw will be your mayor!" Or eat your kids. One or the other.

All I can say about the state where the Constitution was born is, well...pray for us. Just pray for us.

ArgentGale said...

Andrew, they're definitely sore losers. For whatever it's worth Kemp's declared victory and nothing so far has dropped him below 50%, which is what would force a recount or runoff. The media is still saying it's too close to call and backing Abrams' tantrum, of course. Well, let's see if the GOP starts learning some sense.

tryanmax said...

Apparently, some folks in the Democrat Party, realizing they didn’t really win anything worthwhile, have decided it’s a good move to dump on white women. Keep going, Dumbocrats, keep going.

Rustbelt said...

Ah, jeez, tryanmax, what, did you have a bad day at the circus as a kid?
Please, leave Dumbo out of this. He's got enough problems. What did he do to you?

BTW, I saw that too on Louder with Crowder. The Donkey Party: the gift that keeps on giving whether you want it to or not.

AndrewPrice said...

Rustbelt, Pennsylvania needs help. I'm not sure it can be fixed though. I think the state just has too many problem residents in the big cities, unless the union guys in Pittsburgh wake up and become Republicans.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, There's a lot of thrashing about right now. They keep claiming they won (in fact, they were offended that Trump says this was a victory), yet they seem to be building anger all over the place.

Give them a week and I think they'll be in all out rage mode.

Rustbelt said...

No problem, Andrew.
In no time we'll have those union drones appreciating the true value of work as determined by the importance society places on skill level and learning not to extort their employers while understanding that non-union people also work hard for their paychecks and that it is wrong to encourage the government to steal from these people by proxy via taxation for redistribution since it's not their place to judge who has too much or too little wealth in the first place and all the while realizing to vote for candidates who stand for business opportunities and personal responsibility.
Or my name's not Cherokee Jack.

Stacy said...

Rustbelt, I'm guessing Fetterman rode Wolf's coattails since even my ultra liberal son and his wife (who are also former residents of Braddock) can't stand him. Our state is a train wreck. I'm about ready to join ol' Ben in the disowning.

AndrewPrice said...

This is fantastic! I've just seen the first article blaming the system for the Democrat's loss: LINK

Check this out...

"Through a combination of fundamental factors and partisan gerrymandering, Republicans on Tuesday retained their grip on the Senate and many state houses without a national majority."

The Senate cannot be gerrymandered.

“If it requires a generational wave to give Democrats [the House], that’s a sign of just how powerful gerrymandering is, not a sign that it can be conquered.”

Actually, there is 0 evidence of a "generational wave." To the contrary, the evidence suggests there wasn't.

"the benefit redounds mostly to white, rural voters likely to vote Republican. Because Democratic voters are concentrated in cities, it is inevitable that more of them will find their votes “wasted” — that is, packed into bright-blue districts."

Actions have consequences, sorry.

"And voters in Florida restored voting rights to 1.4 million people with prior felony convictions, a huge expansion of the franchise that could radically redistribute voting power in that state."

It hasn't in any other state and only two states (both blue) still ban felons.

“No democracy can operate if the losers aren’t good sports,” Levinson said. “And what Donald Trump has done is create a situation where many of his supporters, the Trump base, are being trained to be bad sports."

You mean like the Al Gore Florida thing? Or the anti-Trump crap from 2016... not my President? Or whining about the Electoral College?

Your tears bring me joy, idiot.

AndrewPrice said...

This is awesome too. Rolling Stone, a leftist rag these days, is trying to make leftists feel better about their grand Pyrrhic victory.

First, Trump won because of appeals to racism. So the public is racist? How is that comforting to leftists?

Second, they claim a blue wave did indeed "wash over the House." Yet, somehow when it came to the Senate, those same wavers decided not to vote Democratic?

Third, this "win was far from assured." LOL! Last week, this win was going to be massive. Now it wasn't even assured? Interesting.

Fourth, the Democrats had to overcome "myriad [voter] suppression campaigns." Yep, all those people flooding the news today telling how they were denied the vote is shocking... by its absence.

Don't expect much. (Cause you're gettin' nothin')

But "with the shift left, American voters have begun to right the ship of state." What shift left?

tryanmax said...

Rustbest, Dumbo is actually my all-time favorite from when I was a kid. I didn't mean to impugn baby elephants. When I wrote that, I was thinking with emphasis on the "dumb." Maybe next time I should call them "Dumbasscrats"?

tryanmax said...

PS, Rustbelt, I don't know what to do about unions. It seems to me the average member is too dim to realize the bosses are robbing them blind.

AndrewPrice said...

The confusion seems to be getting worse on the left. First of all, THEY WON. Don't you dare say otherwise. And that Trump is delusional from claiming he did. What a moron and his typoz! We wons! No him! But we would have won better if America wasn't so racist and Georgia so corrupt and the Founding Fathers so stoopid... and if Beyonce had endorsed Beto earlier. Seriously, she like endorsed the dude like 2 hours before it was time to vote. What is wrong with her????!!! (Not kidding: LINK). Either way, now we're in charge, but don't expect anything because we ain't got no power. But we will impeach him and Kavanaugh and we're going to get Trump's tax returns!! Then you'll see. But don't worry. We won. And remember, elections take time and only winning the House was apparently part of that plan (Obama). Damn you white women for supporting Trump!


AndrewPrice said...

As for Beto, the celebs have all jumped on board and they are actually saying that losing was good for him because it gives him time to focus on (losing in) 2020.

ArgentGale said...

Dumbasscrats is definitely much better, tryanmax! As for your latest update, Andrew, at this point all I can do is laugh about how pathetic the left is getting with those reactions. And Abrams still hasn't conceded even though she's finished mathematically. I'm hoping this crass tantrum gives the Georgia Democrats a long-lasting black eye. Now we just need the GOP to smarten up... Speaking of which, Andrew, I've mentioned your analysis of GA's future to a few conservative friends and they agree with you. Hopefully we can get more people talking about it.

tryanmax said...

Seeing lots of tantrums about how unfairly undemocratic the Senate is. Like, no duh.

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