Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Happy New Year - Predictions

Here are some thoughts of what I see happening this year.

● The left is on the verge of fracturing. You can see it coming. The problem is that each group's claim to the party is that they are the true victims. Being a politicized victim means that your pain counts for more than other's pain. Hence, single white women and blacks are in direct competition for being the morally superior-ist. That puts them in direct competition.

Keep this in mind too... the white woman's movement is based on the idea that any woman's discomfort/embarrassment (either in sexual terms, i.e. he did something I see as creepy, or in "body positive" ways, i.e. don't call me fat!) should be criminalized. Black men, however, are cultural troglodytes in this regard. For one thing, they are men by definition, which makes them oppressors to these women. But even worse, black male culture is steeped in things white women have tried to rid from the culture for decades, resulting in snowflake males. At the same time, the black male movement demands absolution for any misconduct, up to and including rape and real crimes. This flies in the face of white women demands to criminalize pet peeves. That puts these groups in opposition. Meanwhile, the black woman movement seems to be based on the hatred of white women being seen as more beautiful, which they have morphed into the idea of white woman privilege. They are also particularly upset that black men prize white women, see e.g. almost any black rapper, athlete, or actor, which makes this anger visceral. The end result is that black women see white women as oppressors. White women see black men as oppressors. And black men seem largely absent from the debate, except for some doctrinaire leftists, who tend to be racial separatists and view all whites as oppressors.

That's not a coalition that can last. And you're seeing evidence of this. For one thing, black women are abandoning the chick rallies. They just cancelled one in California out of fear that only white women would show up. I can also show you a steady flow of articles by black women attacking white women for not understanding that black women have a morally superior claim to victimhood.

So what does this mean? I think it means that they will have an increasingly difficult to turn out their voters. It will also make it very hard to attract other minorities... if either group even wants to.

As an aside, I've got some really great evidence that leftism isn't making any inroads with the public. I'll present that next week.

● 2019 will also see an ugly fight between conservative Democrats, if there are any left, and the new socialist kids. This risks wiping out the gains the Democrats just made in the heart of the country.

● I suspect that a handful of Republicans will give the Democrats cover to impeach Trump.

● I still think Hillary dies before Trump's term is up. She seems to be hiding medical issues that make her physically infirm. I'm also suspecting now that Pelosi will leave office for medical reasons. She seems to be in the not-so-early phases of dementia.

● New government in France within weeks. Marcon seems to have pushed his base away too far and they are trying to bring him down now. Marcon has actually been a friend of the US, so I don't see this as a good thing.

● Brazil is going to be interesting to watch. They are sending out snipers to shoot armed criminals now without warning. On the heels of the Philippines war on drug dealers, this is an interesting step away from the global liberalism of the past half century.

● There are lots of things the Democrats could do which Trump would sign: gun control, path to citizenship, etc. But watching them handle budget issue, I'm fairly certain they don't want anything to happen until after 2020... except Trump smears.

● Lastly, I think there's a short, minor recession coming this year. Duck and cover.


Anthony said...

Both parties are big coalitions. They are always on the verge of fracturing especially when out of power and the different candidates and factions are warring for dominance. Sadly, whining and claims of victimization seem to be the order of the day everywhere.

Along those lines the crucial question for the Dems is who their nominee will be. None of the usual suspects (be it Hillary, Warren or Biden) has a shot. I think an outsider could do well. While most seem to key on Oprah and the Rock, neither of them have really chased the goodwill of the left's fringe the way Carrey has with his crappy cartoons (which is somewhat similar to what Trump did with his birtherism). I still don't think victory is in the cards for whoever runs for the presidency, but a lot can happen between now and November 2020.

I agree the Democrats have nothing to gain by working with Trump. Even if they don't pass anything they will be criticized for doing too much with the enemy (as happened with Congressional Republicans under Obama anything short of impeachment and imprisonment will be seen as weakness).

Other notable trends? Military men that resist Trump's decision to bring the military more into domestic affairs and make it more responsive to the whims of the president will either be pushed out or jump. This is just a step in the ladder so we aren't going to turn into a military dictatorship overnight or anything but it is worthy of note.

Yeah, a recession seems to be in the cards. I predict the current Chairman of the Fed will become the new Jeff Sessions :).

All that being said I don't think this year is going to be bad provided one doesn't invest hope in politics. Lots of promising books, tv shows, movies and videogames are in the works. I am in the middle of reading a sci-fi collection of novellas named Stronger, Faster and more Beautiful. It offers some interesting twists on some of the bioethical dilemmas we find ourselves in today.

Anonymous said...

Andrew and Anthony; Interesting observations. We'll see how things play out. On the lighter side, Mitt Romney has said that he'll hold off an endorsement of Trump in 2020 until he sees what the options are. The egos on these guys never cease to amaze me! What on earth makes MITT ROMNEY(!) think that anybody cares about his opinion on anything ? And in other news, anybody who's thinking about seeing The Mule should do it. It wasn't as good as Gran Torino but what is. It's a good movie and it's good to see Clint still out there. Let's all hold our breath as we strap in and launch into the new year.

AndrewPrice said...

GypsyTyger, Hold our breath indeed! Best wishes for 2019.

I am looking forward to seeing "The Mule." Don't waste you time with Mary Poppins though.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I think the black woman v. white woman thing is approaching the level of libertarian v. Religious Right, which led to them separating.

In terms of 2020, the only thing I know right now is that it's going to be a circus. My money (at this early phase) is on Gavin Newsome.

Agreed that the Democrats have nothing to gain by working with Trump. But I think they are walking a fine line with never-ending investigations. People want government to run in the background. They don't like being reminded of the rancor.

The military is in an odd spot. They can't accept illegal orders, but they shouldn't be spouting off -- to any President. Some seem to have forgotten that.

I have no reason to think this year will be good or bad yet... if you ignore the constant psychotic ranting from the left. They've become like someone who just got dumped and can't shut up about it.

AndrewPrice said...

P.S. Happy New Year, Anthony!

And everyone else too. Best wishes to all!

Anonymous said...

"Mean" Gene Okerland has passed on. One of the iconic characters of an iconic decade, the 1980s. I have so many great memories of him. The wrestlers back in the eighties were the greatest, the bridge between the old smoke filled arena one step above bar room brawl days and the modern era. None of those guys had writers. Hulk Hogan, Roddy Piper, Bret Hart, Macho Man Randy Savage, Bobby Heenan, all those guys had to ad lib their own interviews. As great as they were, Gene made them better. He was a great interviewer, one of the best interviewers ever in any sport or any era. It is right and just that he was the first announcer inducted into the WWE Hall of Fame.
RIP Mr. Okerland

tryanmax said...

Anon, I wasn't aware of MedGate. It seems to fit the pattern of other incidents where asking too many questions of prevailing progressive thought is treated as hostile. Funnily enough, I have some firsthand experience with this for raising too many questions, not at university, but at church!

tryanmax said...

It's true that the two big parties are always on the verge of fracturing. I think there are different ways of talking about it, some more accurate than others. What immediately springs to mind is the popular refrain whenever the GOP is out of power: "End of the Republican Party" with varying numbers of question marks. Conversely, the Democrat Party is always being taken over by a new faction--realignment--but it's continuance is always assumed. The reality is, both parties are in constant realignment and neither looks to be going anywhere anytime soon.

I suspect the difference in the way the Parties' internal politics are described owes partly to the Democratic party tracing its roots back to Thomas Jefferson's Democratic-Republicans, whereas the Republican Party arose to replace the collapsed Whig Party. Adding to that is the fact that originally, Democratic-Republicans were called "Republicans" for short, so there is a history of Republicans (quote-unquote) ending (again, quote-unquote). I would grant the remainder of the disparity to bias.

Critch said...

We have a not so unique problem in St. Louis County, the new ultra-Lib prosecutor has fired 2 or 3 assistant prosecutors who are just too conservative and he is refusing to prosecute people for weed, back child support issue here is that he is basically refusing to do his job. I doubt our governor can do much as St. Louis City/County is out of reach of much of Jefferson City. This should get interesting. I expect the waste will start backing up in the cesspool that is St. Louis.

It's funny, but I remember seeing direct orders being sent down from Washington that as members of the military we were not allowed to be joking about Bill clinton and his mistresses and later about Obama...I never saw those type orders when Nixon, Reagan, Bush I, or Bush II were there...

BTW, the military is packed with full blown socialists...some of them are so used to being taken care for 20-25 years that they expect the same treatment in the real world. It's mainly the officer corps from my 30 years of observations.

Tennessee Jed said...

and don’t forget sky low low the great midget wrestler or Jimmy Superfly Snuka, real life murderer. Our mayor in Knoxville is the wrestler Kane (shades of Jesse Ventura)

Tennessee Jed said...

my frustration is that I truly believe open borders and a welfare state is the recipe for the dearh of this country and nobody is willing to do what is necesary to stop it. We had a chance but too many R’s are beholden to Koch and other businesses that depend on cash under the table “guest” workers

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