Sunday, February 9, 2020

The Democrats: Who's Out?

Let's talk predictions and Democrats. This is how I see things shaping up...

● Elizabeth Warren is done. The evidence comes from the growing army of bitter articles blaming sexism for her failure -- especially before New Hampshire, which was supposed to be her shining moment. They note in particular... this might get crazy, but it's their logic (corrections in parentheses)... that the "country" (Democrats) is sexist and just isn't willing to "elect" (nominate) a woman, and evil Buttguy has unfairly taken advantage of this. That little gay sh*t is using "optimistic platitudes" to "steal" her voters because "sexist" (women) voters are programmed to see a strong woman as nasty but find him likeable -- likeability is itself a sexist construct meant to keep women down. He's young enough to be one of her students, can you imagine?! Yet, "mature" women (60+) are flocking to him instead of her because the gay-male-centric media push him on these (weak-minded) women because the media see a "gay millennial" as more like themselves than a "70 year old woman", no matter how "barrier breaking" her candidacy is, so they are supporting him.

Some thoughts: (1) So the media is biased? (2) Maybe the country isn't sexist, maybe she's really just not likable? (3) So gay Pete hasn't said anything of substance? (4) So these elderly women are too stupid to make up their own minds? Bernie's voters aren't shifting to Pete, are they smarter? (5) Ageism is cool? (6) How exactly is she "barrier breaking"? Was Hillary not a woman? Didn't she do better? (7) While they call her supporters sexist for leaving her, her appeal is supposed to be to elite white women who want a woman, i.e. reverse-sexist women. Something is wrong with this paradox. //head spins

Anyways, once you start to see a lot of articles trying to explain why someone is failing -- especially when written in a predictive tone that is nearly past-tense, and especially when they blame conspiracies or corrupt human nature or deus ex machina -- then you know it's over. Up to now, she's struck me as someone who would always end up third. I think her supporters see that now too and they are drifting to someone they think can win... someone more likable, gay Pete. This is frustrating her hard core supporters who see her other supporters bleeding away and are writing these bitter articles knowing it's over. She's done. Put a spork in her.

● Does anybody else think that Pete Buttguy looks like Mickey Mouse?

● Biden is done. The country's just too sexist to elect an idiot. Ha ha. Actually, I think Biden was never anyone's choice. Biden was seen by Democrats as the only moderate candidate with a resume -- did time in the Senate and was Obama's buddy meaning he has black friends -- so he was seen as the only rallying point to stop Colonel Sanders from dragging the Democrats to Stupidville. The alternatives were some gay mayor (who?) or some chick from flyover country who abuses her staff (who?). Neither had what it takes, so Biden it was. But a funny thing happened. Biden turned out to be an idiot... gee, who knew? He fell flat on his face in the #metoo world and keeps touching women, he's gaffe prone, he French kisses his granddaughter, Obama doesn't actually like him, he sleeps during debates, he's gaffe prone, he's not sure he's going to run for two terms... heck, he might even die in his first, he's gaffe prone, he's supported lots of things the Democrats see as war crimes (like welfare reform, gun rights and the Gulf War), he's creepy, etc. Suddenly, Mickey Mouse became the better choice in Iowa.


With the spell of "he's the only rallying moderate" broken, it's all falling apart now. His voters are flocking to gay Pete because he's not stupid or unlikable or creepy. Biden's falling in the polls to below Warren. His campaign is responding angrily. Anger never sells, it just makes the problem worse. He's bringing out the dead family members for sympathy. Voters smell desperation, which makes them flee. The media is doing post mortems about his strategy (once seen as brilliant, now seen as foolish), which gives his demise a sense of inevitability. His debate performance is now being analyzed more honestly and people don't like what they see. And worst of all, as a moderate, he needs to sell hope to win. He needs to come across as a happy guy looking to get along with everyone. But gay Pete has the high ground and the only way to undo him is to attack, which flies in the face of what he needs to present as a moderate. In other words, he needs to abandon the only selling point he's ever had to dig himself out of this hole, but how does that help? That's all she wrote.

● I think Bloomberg is done too. Despite spending trillions of dollars spreading his whiny voice everywhere on television, he's just not gaining much traction. He seems to have lobbed himself right into the pack of also-rans and can't gain escape velocity. Not only does he not have anything to offer (the gun issue doesn't resonate -- where are those gun kids?), but he's facing a series of body blows. Warren won't let go about him harassing women on staff, reaching settlements and making them sign nondisclosure, killing him with white professional women. Now comes a transgender scandal where Bloomberg dismissed them in 2016 as "a man wearing a dress." This is raising anger all over their community and they want his head... no pun intended. Of course, the media is further spinning this because his statement implied that we rube midwesterners could not understand social issues. It just never ends. In fact, it seems that every other week or so, he's tripping over himself.

Also, Bloomberg has three fundamental problems: (1) he's a Jew in an increasingly anti-semetic party, (2) he's a billionaire in an eat-the-rich party, (3) he was elected in NYC as a continuation of Republican rule and has no street cred with liberal activists, and (4) he's just not exciting. His money can keep him in, but only as a spoiler.

● Amy Whatshername is done too. She's cute and all, but she offers literally nothing other than being the only woman in the race... unless you count Buttguy. And it seems that having a gay friend is enough for white professional women, so they have chosen their gay friend Pete over boring Amy, who has failed to reach out as a woman.

That leaves gay Pete and Bernie. Unless something really dramatic changes, I think Bernie wins New Hampshire, with a close second by Pete and Warren third -- she was supposed to win New Hampshire, and her failure will confirm her death. Biden buys time buy winning South Carolina based on black votes. Then Super Tuesday ends Warren and Amy. Bloomberg fails miserably on Super Tuesday but stays in to the ego, uh, end. Biden hangs on to the end also, running an increasingly distant third. As between Bernie and Pete, I can't say yet, but I suspect Pete pulls it out. That said, there is a very high chance of a brokered convention. That will be ugly.



AndrewPrice said...

As an aside, this is a no-win scenario for the Democrats no matter what happens.

BevfromNYC said...

This could've been a slam-dunk for the Dems except they just can't not be crazy. I have been saying this for years. They just do not get it that they cannot win votes by insulting voters. They just cannot help themselves. They possibly could have convicted Trump, but Pelosi/Schiff et al. were so hot to disrupt Trump's wins and their Christmas holiday, they forgot they actually had to have evidence to convict. Not just hearsay evidence that was 3rd/4th hahd "I think I heard someone say that someone said that someone might have heard" stuff.

They make Trump seem downright sane and, of course, despite everything he's getting actual stuff done. I actually admire that someone can be so "tortured" and still keeps hitting back. The last was post-SOTU/Pelosi shred-fest. His team posted a video of all of the amazing people he introduced (the 100 yr old Tuskegee Airman/New Brigadier General) and with each name they had Pelosi ripping her copy...over and over with each person. Pelosi & company have demanded that Twitter take it down because the video was "altered". If she had only just let it go...

Finally, yes, it will be a brokered convention and my prediction...Hillary and Buttguy. OR Sanders and Hillary (which means Sanders dies of unknown causes within 10 days of the election...). Though I am really pushing for Buttguy/Klobucher just for the spelling/pronunciation issues during the election process.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, They really do excel at looking down on average people. James Carville made that point this weekend too, taking the Democrats to task for being condescending and pushing crazy ideas. He took no prisoners. But then, I doubt anyone on the left was listening -- although there seems to be a concerted effort to stop Bernie now. We'll see if that helps or just makes their voters more determined to choose him.

ArgentGale said...

All of that sounds likely to me and I can't disagree with what you wrote either, Bev (and it's good to see you back). They really seem determined to blow this election with all these shenanigans. Think their crazy will hurt them at the House level, too, Andrew?

tryanmax said...

I'll say again, Biden got put in to lend plausibility to Ukraine-gate. Op-eds about how Trump fears Biden didn’t start cropping up until after there were rumblings of firing the Ukrainian ambassador. The angle was to just scare Trump off of investigating with the threat of impeachment, but Trump calls bluffs.

So Biden was never the guy. The silly thing is, there aren’t any guys in the Democrat field. Losing to Trump will end the career of whoever does it. That’s why all the Dems have are candidates who appear to be too dumb, too angry, or too ideologue to know that. If Hillary gets thrown in, it won’t be because she wants to lose again. Michelle O. won’t run because losing to Trump is too great a risk to take.

I’m with Bev: BUTT/KLOB 2020

Critch said...

Sanders has a pretty good lead in New may not last, but then again....I think Warren, Biden, and Yang are toast...

AndrewPrice said...

Yang quit. Apparently paying athletes and banning circumcision weren't catchy issues.

AndrewPrice said...

Colonel Sanders and Buttguy came in 1 and 2, as expected.

Warren 4th, Biden 5th.

Warren underperformed a little for my estimate with Bland Amy taking her place. I'm not sure if Amy won some of Warren's Iwillnevervoteforaman voters or if she took some of Biden's ain'tvotingsocialistbutain'tvotingfornogayneither voters or if she just gained a little from everyone. Not sure yet. Either way, she has managed to uh, "vote block" Buttguy from a huge victory, but I don't see this making her a legitimate contender. We'll have to see if (1) she can keep these people and (2) if that can create momentum. She's apparently out of money now too. So we'll see.

I think Warren may drop out now. Tang quit. Some other people no one knows quit too.

A for Biden, It will be interesting to see if Biden collapses in South Carolina now that he's clearly been sporked or if he still gets his win and then collapses. Frankly, I think he's in a no-win situation. If he wins, it won't be big enough because it was expected. If he loses, they pronounce him DOA. Either way, he's just wasting time.

Anthony said...

I mostly agree about the Dem field though I'm less certain Bloomberg is not the new relatively moderate hope. I think Buttigieg is too far to the left (though not as far as Sanders) to pick up most Biden supporters in the primary.

Of course the smart money is on Sanders. He has serious medical issues (like Hillary did) and an insane platform but a strong core of support and his opponents are splitting the vote a lot of ways.

Whoever the Dem nominee is they will have a long shot no matter how big an idiot they are. 2020 is going to be like 2016, with two (if the Dems are lucky) weak candidates playing reverse musical chairs and the one getting the most negative coverage at the moment losing. The economy is doing well and relatively few soldiers are dying but Trump loves petty drama as does a big chunk of his cult.

Hilariously the Attorney General has taken the once unusual step of publicly begging Trump to stop publicly pressuring him to go easy on his friends (a bunch of prosecutors have just quit). Barr is trying to demonstrate loyalty by improbably claiming Trump has never said a word to him in private but talk radio has still made him the latest in a long line of decades long members it suddenly hates. Of course Barr will probably be gone by November but he's emblematic of the sorts of problems Trump invariably creates for himself.

Critch said...

I can't get over using the word "moderate" for this crop of Democrats. Moderate in relation to who? Leon Trotsky? I'm starting to believe that Bernie may make it to Milwaukee, maybe, if Bloomberg, Buttigieg, or Hillary don't knock him out of the way. These socialists who want Bernie will not vote for Bloomberg, et al...they will not...they will burn Milwaukee...get your popcorn ready for the show.


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