All Hail Joe Biden!

With Buttguy dropping out, all the math has changed. As stunning as this sounds, it really looks like Joe Biden will win the nomination and will do so without a brokered convention. Here's why.

The conventional wisdom is that Bernie is on a tear and could well end up the nominee. This was possibly true so long as the "moderates" stayed divide. But then Bernie got his ass handed to him in South Carolina exposing his own weakness. And then Buttguy dropped out, handing the moderates to Biden. Now it looks like a repeat of 2016. In fact, looking at Bernie's vote totals, despite all the press that suggested he had broken through and was the lead horse, the reality is different. Check this out. This is how Bernie did in 2016 compared to 2020:

...................... 2016 .... 2020
Iowa ............... 49.8 .... 26.5
New Hampshire ... 38 ...... 25.6
Nevada ............ 47 ...... 46.8
South Carolina .... 26 ...... 20

Bernie is down in each contest. At no point has he increased his support. Now, you can say that there are more people in the race, but that's not really relevant. There are more moderates. If Bernie maintained the same level of progressive support as last time, he should at least have equaled his score from last time. Instead, his support is actually dropping everywhere except the Nevada caucus, and as we've always said, he's a pro at caucuses.

So look for Bernie to do worse than he did in 2016. That means the moderates will exceed Hillary's total. But which moderates? With Buttguy in the race, it seems pretty clear that no one would get enough to win the nomination outright, which gave them all an incentive to stay in for the brokered convention. But with Buttguy leaving, the chance of Biden winning rises significantly which makes it harder (read: disloyal) to stay in the race. So look for Amy to definitely drop out and now I think Warren will too after she loses her home state. That leaves only Bloomberg, but he's really disliked in the party. Did you see the black church members turning their backs on him?

Anyways, Hillary beat Bernie 55%-43%. With Bernie looking weaker, expect "Moderate" to beat Bernie 60% to 40% or better. That means Biden can lose 10% to Bloomberg and still prevail outright. But there's a kicker... a lot of races require 15% or you don't get any delegates, which means that Bloomberg's 10-15% is likely to count for almost 0% of delegates. Thus, right now, I don't see how it's not Biden.

In other words, dear ladies of the Democratic Party (you are 63% of their voters), in the age of #metoo, you have chosen an old white man as your leader... a known groper and creep, who smells women's hair on stage, touches the wives of nominees inappropriately, and exploits his wife's death for political gain. A man who defended Clarence Thomas and opposed abortion for years. I guess his animal appeal was just too much for you?

And you black folk have chosen a man who makes off the cuff racist comments like small talk... a man who lies to impress you... a friend of segregationists... a man Obama won't endorse even as they worked together for eight years and that relationship is the foundation of his appeal to you. I find that kind of funny. You?

Even better, I can't see Joe serving two terms. He's too old and he's already said he isn't likely to do it. Whether he does or not, perception is reality and the perception will make him a lame duck as an army of Democrats fight over 2022. Plus, let's not forget the fact he's stupid and senile.

This is really your choice? Interesting choice.