Monday, March 2, 2020

All Hail Joe Biden!

With Buttguy dropping out, all the math has changed. As stunning as this sounds, it really looks like Joe Biden will win the nomination and will do so without a brokered convention. Here's why.

The conventional wisdom is that Bernie is on a tear and could well end up the nominee. This was possibly true so long as the "moderates" stayed divide. But then Bernie got his ass handed to him in South Carolina exposing his own weakness. And then Buttguy dropped out, handing the moderates to Biden. Now it looks like a repeat of 2016. In fact, looking at Bernie's vote totals, despite all the press that suggested he had broken through and was the lead horse, the reality is different. Check this out. This is how Bernie did in 2016 compared to 2020:
...................... 2016 .... 2020
Iowa ............... 49.8 .... 26.5
New Hampshire ... 38 ...... 25.6
Nevada ............ 47 ...... 46.8
South Carolina .... 26 ...... 20
Bernie is down in each contest. At no point has he increased his support. Now, you can say that there are more people in the race, but that's not really relevant. There are more moderates. If Bernie maintained the same level of progressive support as last time, he should at least have equaled his score from last time. Instead, his support is actually dropping everywhere except the Nevada caucus, and as we've always said, he's a pro at caucuses.

So look for Bernie to do worse than he did in 2016. That means the moderates will exceed Hillary's total. But which moderates? With Buttguy in the race, it seems pretty clear that no one would get enough to win the nomination outright, which gave them all an incentive to stay in for the brokered convention. But with Buttguy leaving, the chance of Biden winning rises significantly which makes it harder (read: disloyal) to stay in the race. So look for Amy to definitely drop out and now I think Warren will too after she loses her home state. That leaves only Bloomberg, but he's really disliked in the party. Did you see the black church members turning their backs on him?

Anyways, Hillary beat Bernie 55%-43%. With Bernie looking weaker, expect "Moderate" to beat Bernie 60% to 40% or better. That means Biden can lose 10% to Bloomberg and still prevail outright. But there's a kicker... a lot of races require 15% or you don't get any delegates, which means that Bloomberg's 10-15% is likely to count for almost 0% of delegates. Thus, right now, I don't see how it's not Biden.

In other words, dear ladies of the Democratic Party (you are 63% of their voters), in the age of #metoo, you have chosen an old white man as your leader... a known groper and creep, who smells women's hair on stage, touches the wives of nominees inappropriately, and exploits his wife's death for political gain. A man who defended Clarence Thomas and opposed abortion for years. I guess his animal appeal was just too much for you?

And you black folk have chosen a man who makes off the cuff racist comments like small talk... a man who lies to impress you... a friend of segregationists... a man Obama won't endorse even as they worked together for eight years and that relationship is the foundation of his appeal to you. I find that kind of funny. You?

Even better, I can't see Joe serving two terms. He's too old and he's already said he isn't likely to do it. Whether he does or not, perception is reality and the perception will make him a lame duck as an army of Democrats fight over 2022. Plus, let's not forget the fact he's stupid and senile.

This is really your choice? Interesting choice.


Critch said...

Amy just dropped out as well....I wonder when Bloomberg will realize that money can't buy him love?

LL said...

Maybe Joe would make Hillary his VP and he'd almost certainly die in office if he won?

AndrewPrice said...

Amy's out too, huh? Anyone want to bet there were some nice promises to made to Amy and Butguy if they clear the decks?

Tennessee Jed said...

I heard Barrack had a talk with them. I wondered if Warren was promised anything (AG?) to stay in and siphon off Bernie’s support

Critch said...

I heard Biden got a bump, in the polls, when Buttgieg pulled out..

AndrewPrice said...

So Chris Matthews is done. He basically got kicked out for, ostensibly, being rude to women. But it seems more like his crimes were antisemitic comments about Bernie Sanders.

Good riddance

AndrewPrice said...

Critch, I am shocked!! LOL! Great use of innuendo!

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, I'm thinking they were both promised something good.

Of course, it's possible that Biden promised Buttguy the VP position and then forgot he made the promise and promised it to Warren... and will soon claim it himself.

Seriously though, I'll be both were offered something pretty significant.

tryanmax said...

I'm sure promises were made to both Amy and Pete, but with current fundraising numbers being what they are, I don't see how the Biden campaign can cover two Applebee's gift cards.

Anthony said...

As I've said before, I have the sense that ideology still tops everything else in the Dem party so I don't think its surprising the people representing its ideological poles (which aren't all that far apart in the wider scheme of things) were the last people standing.

I suspect a charismatic outsider could have changed that but fortunately for both men no such person showed up.

Here's a post from May of last year.

Distrust of the other helps a little bit around the fringes (its no accident Trump routinely floats racially tinged conspiracy theories against non-white opponents) but its not a big driver for most voters.
The polling data I've seen indicates that this early in the race the popularity of Democratic candidates with women and blacks tracks their broader popularity (that would almost have to be the case with women, who constitute more than half the Dem base).


It will be interesting to see how today plays out. I think Bloomberg is out due to the establishment suddenly lumbering behind Biden. Bloomberg seems to think so too given he spent yesterday on Fox taking shots at the Dems.

Whoever the eventual nominee is will have the devil's own time unifying the party. Their best hope on that front will be Trump though I think as happened in 2016 a significant chunk of Bernie supporters will opt for Trump if Bernie isn't the nominee.

Tennessee Jed said...

Anthony, maybe Bloomy will put up a billion to help Republicans win back the house and keep the Senate. ......... probably not though

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, That made me laugh on many levels!

AndrewPrice said...

It's almost vote counting time -- always an adventure with Democrats involved -- get ready for the fun to begin!

AndrewPrice said...

We have a new front runner! Mike Bloomberg won American Samoa. Next stop, the White House. That's $500 million well spent, Mike.

AndrewPrice said...

First impression on the evening:

1. Biden wins a lot of states, but the delegates will be a lot closer than people think. Bernie did well-ish... unless Biden wins an upset in Texas or California. Ultimately, Biden has won the nomination. God help us all.

2. Warren got embarrassed. She came in third in her home state. She has to drop out now. (Amy would have done worse in Minnesota).

3. Bernie will kid himself after tonight. He'll do well in delegates and he'll tell himself that once Warren drops out, he will win because he would have swung more states. The math doesn't add up though. Plus, I'm not at all sure he gets any Warren votes. They're not Bernie progressives. I suspect they are a mix of womyn voters and quasi-moderates who don't like Biden.

4. Bloomberg sounds like he wants to quit. Our 16oz cups are safe!

Tennessee Jed said...

So how much did it cost magic mini-Mike per delegate? Glad he pissed away all that money. I want Bern to hang in. Need those Bro’s to be pissed at the DNC and feel screwed and stay home. Looks like Joe plans to work the upper Midwest hard.

AndrewPrice said...


$83 million a piece.

I want Bernie hanging in until the very end too... and then (if possible) getting cheated by insiders. That would he perfect!

tryanmax said...

Heard this morning that Biden leads with late-deciders. That's not a recipe for enthusiasm.

Critch said...

Fake-a-hontas is out.

Tennessee Jed said...

All hail the pow'r of Biden’s name,
let angels prostrate fall;
Bring forth the royal diadem,
And crown Him Lord of all! (Sorry, just couldn’t resist a shot at Plugs. “They gonna put y’all back in chains”)

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