Thursday, March 19, 2020

The End is Nigh

As expected, the coronavirus has peaked and this should all be coming to an end soon... until it comes back next season. How do I know? I pay attention to how the world works.

Let's start with this premise: human beings overreact. And usually, in any sort of crisis, the moment they overreact the most, i.e. the moment of greatest human stupidity, is the moment right after the crisis has broken and things are starting to get better. This has always been true historically, it's true in stocks, it's true in all of human endeavors. We are at that point right now... peak stupidity.

We are awash in meaningless steps to prevent things that aren't happening and never will. We are awash in efforts to strike terror into nonconformists. We are seeing desperate attempts to scare healthy people with all kind of obvious lies: 20 million dead... hospitals overwhelmed... young people are at risk... your testicles will fall off!!! In fact, the media is suddenly full of youngish Quislings making hostage-like videos begging forgiveness for not drinking the KoolAid before they got sick. Oh the humanity! People who don't look or sound the least bit sick are trying to convince us "this is not the flu, it's so much worse!" Each then describes mild flu symptoms that lasted all of one week. Yawn.

Let's start with the evidence of the virus ending.

1. Only 150 people have been died in the US since January 21, and that number is barely growing. There is no exponential growth. That means it's not out of control. Look for less than 500 dead in the US by the time this is over.

2. China and Korea has been reporting a crash in the numbers of new infections. China actually reported no new infections today. No growth means it's over because that's how viruses work. They move in mathematical patterns, not randomly, and when the pattern shows a reduction it's run its course. So the virus ran from November until March with a total of 81,000 infected. So much for 200,000,000 million Americans dying. Even the streets of places like Hong Kong are filling with people again.

As an aside, the press reports these things breathlessly like they're magic: What has China done that we haven't? How do we copy them? It's called time. It's a natural process.

A couple of other points. While China had one of the highest death rates (which flies in the face of media praise of China as a place of miracles) the US death rate is around 1/4 as high, so we are handling this much better. Also, despite the crazy stupid claims that we're in trouble because we don't have socialized medicine, the places with socialized medicine (1) have high infection and death rates, and (2) are debating rationing and letting old people die despite the fact that only a tiny number of people are infected. Consider this: 0.000052 of the Italian population has been infected and they are talking about giving up on old people because they can't handle it. That's socialized medicine for you. A good herpes outbreak would collapse society. As an aside, our infection rate is half that of Italy, so again, we are doing things right.

So the burnout period, looking at China, is five months. Add in that we are handling this better (for a number of reasons, I would suggest better hygiene and more natural social distance) and I suspect our burnout period is half that, so two months tops. April... if not already.

But we all know that the real issue is not the virus. The virus is nothing. Roughly 7,700 people die in the US every day. This virus has killed 152 total since January. Yawn. The real issue is the rampant stupidity from our Chicken Littles and their panderers in the government/corporate world. They could go on forever... except the public won't let them.

Even in Italy and France, which are generally populations of sheep, young people are holding illegal parties all over the place. That is the first stage of an uprising which will overwhelm the authorities. This is how the Berlin Wall fell and how other communist regimes collapsed. This is how prohibition ended and the Civil Rights Movement prevailed... a large group of people simply stop obeying. At that point, others follow suit, opportunist politicians jump on the bandwagon and then it all collapses.

In the US, we already have the Spring Break issue, which is why we're getting so much pushback against the young. The powers that be know this will destroy the game. Even worse, the Spring breakers have no respect for what the government is doing, they are mocking it for what it is -- scared stupid people acting like retards. Disobedience is now cool. That's the kiss of death for the witch burners. Even worse, there was a poll this morning that said that 83% of the public have no intention of changing their lives. That's a HUGE number flipping the bird at the scaremongers. That suggests that all it will take is one symbolic moment and the whole house of cards collapses.

I predict this will all collapse in two weeks. The smarter governments are planning April 15th as the end of their restrictions -- even Cuomo is backing off fast on his dire predictions of nine months. I think it all starts to fall apart before that but April 15 is the outer edge.

Finally, here's another bit of interesting scaremongering... As I said, they desperately want young people to be scared, but it’s not happening. So now there are an endless series of gnashed-teeth articles screeching that young people are indeed at risk of getting sick and all dying... and their testicles becoming shaped like Richard Nixon (swear to God!!). To back this up, they released a “study” that is being reported as “infants most at risk from Conoravirus” and “young people at risk!!!” But how true is this? Well....

The study involved 2,143 cases of children in China under 18 who were suspected of having coronavirus (1/3 were confirmed, the rest were guesses, so the study is already hopelessly flawed).

Of the 2,143...
4% had no symptoms

51% had mild cold symptoms only, like fever, congestion, diarrhea, nausea and fatigue (keeping in mind that some of these, we are told, are not symptoms of the disease).

39% had moderate symptoms

6% had severe symptoms (13 needed to go on respirators)
Of those 6%, 20% were “infants.” SEE!!!! Infants are dying! Actually, only one "young" person died. He was 14 and they don't say how or why he died (99% of dead people in Italy had pre-existing conditions). Either way, 1.6% of infants who had the disease had a severe case.

Sounds risky... kind of. But let's add one more fact. This is only kids who have it. The chance of a young person getting it is so small that it cannot be measured. And of that impossibly tiny group, only 1.6% were infants with severe cases. So how dangerous is it really for them? Also, keep in mind, we know the infant death percentage: 0%. So live in fear, my friends.

To put this into perspective, by the way:

* 8,900 people have died from this worldwide since it started in November
* Roughly 7,700 people die in the US every day of other causes
* Roughly 25,000 people die in China every day

Still think we should be panicking?


Stacy said...

This is without a doubt the most insane, overblown load of crap they've ever dumped on us. PA's governor today decreed that ALL non life sustaining businesses must close by 8:00 tonight and any companies not compliant by 12:01 am on Saturday will face fines and charges. My husband, son, and son-in-law are now not working. Since I am only part-time we decided that tomorrow is my last day at the nursing home. I'm in activities and all the restrictions mean I can't really do anything with the residents anyway and now they are saying healthcare workers shouldn't even go to the store. I figure that means I shouldn't see my parents or my young grandchildren, either. And there's still that fear of being confined to the nursing home for the duration. It's not worth it for a part-time job. No way around it, this is insanity in the extreme and they are ruining lives in the process.

ArgentGale said...

From your keyboard to God's screen, Andrew. I'm skeptical of China's numbers personally because of how much they tend to BS already but South Korea's are encouraging, as are the results of the Diamond Princess (saw them at Watts Up With That myself). Looks like we still have some painful stupidity to go through first, though, and I'm not sure how the economy is going to shake out (and it's not helping that some people I normally view as a source of sanity and stability are starting to get scared and depressed about that part). Hope the public's up to the task of pushing back against the panic-ridden and exploiters and bringing us through this mess in at least decent enough shape.

I also figure Victor Davis Hanson's thoughts on the matter are worth sharing here. It's one of the calmest, most rational takes on it that I've seen, though it's not like VDH fails in that regard often.

AndrewPrice said...

Stacy, I'm sorry that happened to your family. That's rough and that's unfair. It's all so stupid. They are hurting a lot of people so needlessly. I hope it all turns out well for your family!

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, I even saw an article at Huffpo trying to calm people down. It noted that the infection rate was really 0.5%, not 5%, and the guy said that it seemed like everyone was way overreacting. I was surprised to see that from a leftist. I think though that people are figuring this out. If that's the case, then a lot of the economic and personal damage can be stopped. Let's hope.

ArgentGale said...

That is interesting, though I don't find it as surprising as I normally would because even a few liberals that I know are starting to feel like this whole thing is badly overblown. No reflexive mention of Orange Man Bad in these conversations either (not that I'd give myself a headache by bringing him up of course) so it does sound like the need for sanity regarding the virus is pushing partisanship aside in these cases, at least for the moment. I'm nowhere near prepared to guess what the blowback from the more heavy-handed measures is going to look like, though, especially since both parties have gotten in on it and rural city and county governments are getting in on it, too.

Tennessee Jed said...

It is getting curiouser and curious. Beware the Jub Jub bird.Lots of people trying to CYA (out of an abundance of caution, blah blah blah) virtue signaling, and in many cases panic. Part of that is because people want answers to things nobody knows. Much of it is the media who are hyping it for all the same reasons they hype hurricanes. Against all that is a very real threat for some segments of our population (e.g. elderly with underlying health issues. I do hope we can regain some sanity sooner rather than later.And, I hope those who went out of there way to try and politicize this are punished at the ballot box for their selfishness

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, The politics is creeping back in fast. You've got howls of racism, attempts to blame Trump for everything -- he's the blame for Spring break now, which is hilarious as none of those people like him or listen to him. Conservatives are to blame for the (natural) spread of the virus, the (non)lack of medical equipment, the fact that liberals feel scared, for not joining them in being chicken shits, for NOT MAKING YOUNG PEOPLE STOP HAVING FUN!!!, for all the lost jobs, for selling stocks before the market plunge, etc. etc. They've returned full retard on the left.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, Could you imagine if the authorities hadn't caused a panic? People wouldn't have respond by emptying grocery stores, wouldn't have shut down businesses laying off millions of workers, wouldn't now be talking about wasting a trillion dollars on handouts. People wouldn't be flooding doctor's offices.

So we would have a world of plenty, where the genuinely sick could get what they needed, get the medical care they need, millions would still have jobs and income, and we could use that trillion to help the people who actually are at risk, like the elderly and the sick. What an idea.

But no, let's freak everyone the F out and see how that works for us! Weeeeee! Idiots.

ArgentGale said...

I have seen that among the politicians and pundits themselves, Andrew, especially amid reports that Trump's handling of the situation is actually polling fairly well. The fact that the Democrats are already throwing blame around and trying to load down these relief bills with funding for their pet projects and obsessions tells me all I need to know about how seriously they're taking it. It's a shame that the Republicans got swept up in it, too, and while I can understand they were between a rock and a hard place they still had a hand in all the wastefulness you mentioned to Jed so it's hard to see how this is going to play out for them. I'm definitely seeing a growing fear of greater government intrusions and long-term economic harm beneficial to the left among conservatives and libertarians as well so now I'm hearing gloom from all sides. All over a worse than usual but still very manageable flu bug getting turned into The Stand but the media and their fellow travelers (a comparison that even Stephen King himself found absurd if that says anything). Thanks as always for providing a rational perspective, Andrew. We all seriously need one.

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