Friday, November 1, 2019

Impeachment Thoughts

Fine. I wasn't going to talk about impeachment. What a waste of time. But I guess it's required. Here are my thoughts.

1. An interesting poll says it all. Only 48% of the public supports impeachment. That's 10% of Republicans, 46% of Independents and 83% of Democrats. This tells me several things. First, if you can't get 51% of the public to support destroying Donald Trump, then you've done it wrong. Secondly, the non-aligned public is not buying into impeachment -- almost 6 in 10 independents are not on board. That dooms it. The 10% never-Trump Republicans are outweighed by the 17% pro-Trump Democrats. (I suspect it's actually 5% and 9% with the rest just being strategic answerers.) That suggests improved chances of re-election.

2. The Democrats are whining that the Republicans aren't giving them political cover. Really? Did they honestly think the Republicans would help them? Fools. As an aside, the fact the Democrats are worried speaks volumes.

3. The Democrats have some serious disadvantages here. (1) The public doesn't like this kind of crap. It reeks of a coup. It reeks of game playing. (2) They are doing this over something that happened in the Ukraine. The public doesn't give a rat's rear end about the Ukraine. Pick a country that matters and where people can pronounce the names. (3) They have picked a reason that everyone assumes all politicians do, so there's a huge "Why are you doing this?" factor. That means this will wear out fast and poll numbers will sink without fireworks. (4) It also hurts that the Democrats have been screaming "impeachment" about everything that hits the news cycle. That makes this seem manufactured.

4. The Democrats' biggest ally (only ally) will be Trump doing something stupid. Oh, don't get me wrong. They'll parade a bunch of pasty government types who will all shake their heads and gnash their teeth at the evil Umpalompa who made them somethingsomethingoshvilli, but the public will only care if Trump puts his foot in his mouth.

5. The Republicans holding together suggests this thing is DOA in the Senate and will become a turnout generator for the Republicans and a depressor for the Democrats. That could change if the polls change, but I don't see any change in the polls coming. The public has made up their minds and nothing anyone says will change it.

6. The Democrats have no one who can exploit this in any event.



AndrewPrice said...

BTW, Kamala Harris seems to be entering a death spiral. That opens the door to Buttguy and it means Biden is likely to get a boost.

tryanmax said...

The math is absolutely terrible for Democrats. But they look to be locked in on impeachment. Even the White House says it's "likely" that Trump gets impeached, which I can only understand as goading. Add to that the fact that impeachment is almost certainly DOA in the Senate and the Dems are walking face-first into a mud pie.

Trump's foot-in-mouth problem is a fairy tale that Dems and Never Trumpers tell themselves to help themselves sleep at night and that reluctant pro-Trump doom-and-gloomers tell themselves to stay awake at night. Certainly Trump has traces of toenail in his molars, but it's not a problem. He set the bar himself at assault with a deadly weapon on 5th Avenue. No, Trump would have to curb-stop a corgi on Periscope to make the public care, and that's assuming Carpe Donkum doesn't turn it into the most viral meme of 2020.

The Dems' best bet at this point is to drag the newly adopted but still bastard-birthed inquiry out until October. And people will be s i c k of it by then.

Anthony said...

The public isn't wild about impeachment as a concept but they aren't wild about Trump either so I think while impeachment is not going to happen, the odds of the Democrats paying a political price for trying are very low.

Democrats are far more likely to be damaged by their policies (nods towards Elizabeth Warren's budget plans) then by anything they say about Trump or do to him.

Most importantly, the big thing to keep in mind in modern America politics (1994 onwards) is 'Wave goes in, wave goes out'. Only 9/11 briefly slowed the pattern. Part of the pattern if the president holding onto office but the party losing all but the safest of seats.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Impeachment seems pointless, that's for sure. And if Trump shuts his mouth -- or stays on message -- it will keep the Democrats flailing in the news, which will be horrible for them. Willie Brown of all people (former speaker of the House in California) agrees with that.

The question to me is whose turnout will this help? Will it help the left by adding frustration or will it turn off them off with failure. And does it actually turn the public against them?

A lot is unclear, but if I had to guess, it would be that the next few months are a total dud, the Democrats piss off a lot of people (inspiring Trump turnout), it gets to the Senate and dies (the Democrats claim this inspires them, but it doesn't), and the election goes to Trump in a squeaker.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, This is what comes from being too close to an issue. I don't know anyone who wanted to see Clinton impeached, and yet the GOP thought they heard a vast wave of support because everyone they knew in DC wanted it. Now the Democrats are doing the same, goaded on by Hollywood, the media and their operatives on the far left. The public doesn't seem to care or want this.

One of the big problems the Democrats face now will be (1) their candidates getting air time versus this and (2) the outbidding factor which make them seem nuts... "If I were President, I'd have him drawn and quartered" "I'd have him eaten by squirrels."

tryanmax said...

The "wave in/wave out" could be subverted with a very strong message on how the Democrats put aside legislation in favor of impeachment. I know this isn't strictly true, but Dems have let a lot of high-profile items languish. (Infrastructure, NAFTA 2) The only risk is that it goads Dems in to taking those items up. More likely, Dems stick to the old "he's distracting" script.

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