Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Re-Election Thoughts

Predicting the future is about data. What do the vague shifts in public opinion, as seen through actual actions and must less worthwhile polls, translate into? Well, we're looking at a lot of data right now about Trump's chances for re-election and the future is cloudy.

Here's what recent data say:

A pretty big majority in a poll think Trump will be re-elected. Even 35% of Democrats think this. That suggests that the public is leaning toward re-election and the Democrats feel isolated and demoralized... which would make re-election a self-fulfilling prophecy. The "what is everyone else thinking" question is usually quite good at gaging public opinion. And I can believe this for a number of reasons. First, all the anti-Trump energy in the public has vanished. He is simply a fact. That tends to mean acceptance. Second, I personally know a lot of core-democratic voters (blacks, single women, families on welfare) and they have stopped talking about Trump. That's demoralization. At the same time, some of the more rational ones have even started to like him. Third, the utter lack of energy surrounding impeachment tells me that the Democrats are demoralized. Advantage Trump.

But, the GOP got beat in Kentucky, especially in the suburbs. The GOP should not lose in Kentucky. And losing the suburbs is a horrible sign. It's true that Gov. Bevin was constantly in the news for pissing people off, but still. Advantage Democrats.

But a swingstate poll, where the election will be decided, shows Trump only 1 point behind Biden in the rustbelt. Usually, polls are very anti-GOP until election day. So that means Trump is stronger than he looks. Advantage Trump.

I suspect the internal polling is strong for Trump. Why? I kind of agree that Trump is the kind of guy to quit if it looked like he was going to get humiliated in the election. Also, the lack of other big name Democrats jumping in (e.g. Newsome, Bloomberg) against this weak field suggests the Democrats see the same numbers. That said, this was the exact reason Bill Clinton won. He ran when all the bigger names thought Bush looked unbeatable... and he wasn't. But I think the internal polling argument is stronger. Advantage Trump.

Other polls show consistently that impeachment hasn't moved a single opinion. So the big Democratic weapon is a dud and will become the big Democratic distraction. Advantage Trump.

So what does all of this mean? Well, a lot of it points to Trump. But those are polls, except for the internal polling thing which involves people making choices about running or not. So it would seem the advantage belongs to Trump. But elections are much stronger than polling for getting at true public opinion. So Kentucky (and Virginia) are problematic. At this point, I think it's all too close to call honestly.


Afterthought: There is a Democrat killer lurking out there... Medicare for All. Even leftist Yahoo has written unflattering pieces about the cost of this. Not only have they pointed out the idea of a 42% sale tax, but they are considering as an alternative an additional 35% payroll taxes. Can you imagine another 35% of your income vanishing off the top? If places like Yahoo aren't hiding this, then the public will know and they will freak. the. f. out!


ArgentGale said...

Looks like a good analysis and conclusion to me. I agree Trump's re-election is more likely than not, especially next to the weak Democrat field, but it's not something he or the GOP needs to take for granted either. I hadn't been paying attention to Kentucky, and while I know Bevin was widely disliked across the board losing the suburbs in another usually reliable red state is a bad sign for sure. It's sad and frustrating that for all the crazy Democrats throw out there that the GOP still manages to make themselves look worse by comparison. In the end I don't think Trump is going to have too much trouble getting re-elected but what comes after him, as well as the GOP in general being unable and/or unwilling to actually learn from their mistakes, does make me nervous for the future.

tryanmax said...

Kentucky is not normally on my radar, so my first blush reaction is the same as yours, that the GOP shouldn't lose it. But the more I look into it, the more it seems the real story is Trump nearly dragged a dead corpse of a candidate across the finish line.

Moreover, the op-eds seem to indicate that, per the norm, Democrats are taking the wrong lessons from their victories. Democrats seem somewhat surprised by their Kentucky victory, and equally perplexed about what to do with it, considering the Governor is boxed in on all sides by Republican officeholders. So they chalk it up to something, something Orange Man something.

In Virginia, they think they've learned that gun control and socialism are winning issues, which they knew already, but they just wanted to be sure.

AndrewPrice said...

Right after posting this, word came out that Bloomberg is thinking of jumping into the race in the next few days. So that does change the analysis and tips it a good deal away from Trump.

And honestly, Bloomberg strikes me as a good compromise between Trump and the whacko Democrats. He could be a problem for Trump if he can beat the whacko brigade.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Belvin has been a dead man walking for some time now, so I'm not as shocked he lost as I would otherwise be. But it is still problematic.

And yes, the Democrats learn all the wrong lessons.

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, This one is very uncertain. I think we won't know anything for sure until we get a lot closer and see how scary the Democratic nominee turns out to be.

Post a Comment